PDA

View Full Version : The Twins make the most sense



lollipopcurve
11-23-2012, 09:13 AM
Looking at possible trade partners for the Reds, it seems obvious to me that the best matchup is Minnesota. Consider:

Twins are woefully short in starting pitching.

Twins lack a SS.

Twins have a RH power hitting LF who hit 4th last year and went 35 HR and 100+ RBI in a pitchers park who is signed to a reasonable 2-year deal -- Willingham.

Twins have a surplus of leadoff-hitting OF talent -- Span, Revere, Hicks (still in upper minors, but coming along nicely).

If I'm betting, I say Jocketty and Terry Ryan get something done.

Vottomatic
11-23-2012, 10:00 AM
Meh. You could say that about the Rockies, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, and Indians too, who all finished in the bottom of the team pitching stats.

Rockies? Fowler.
Indians? Choo.
Red Sox? Ellsbury.

A new article by Yahoo's Jeff Passan says that if the Marlins are really serious about rebuilding then Stanton should be on the trading block. Wouldn't that be nice.

lollipopcurve
11-23-2012, 10:24 AM
You could say that about the Rockies, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, and Indians too

Take a look at the starting staffs and the shortstops on those rosters and tell me they look like what the Twins have.

mth123
11-23-2012, 10:30 AM
Dejesus - $4.25 Million
Span - $4.75 Million
Choo - Arb eligible $7 Million?
Fowler - Arb Eligible $5 Million?
Ellsbury - Arb Eligible $10 Million?
Victorino = ????
Upton - No way
Bourn - No way
Pagan - No way

The Reds need 5 players IMO:

1. A Centerfield/lead-off upgrade
2. A Reliever for the late innings to allow Chapman to start
3. A starting caliber player for LF or 3B who can add pop
4. A Corner bench player who can add some offense
5. A MI who can back-up at SS.

The budget is going to dictate a lot of stuff. I'm guessing the Reds only have about $5 to $8 Million to fill those needs. It may require Chapman staying in the pen and a minor league free agent for the MI role (or Didi). If Rolen comes back, say for around $2.5 to $3 Million, the Reds will need to add a guy to split time with him and Frazier could fill the LF role (or a part time OF with Frazier moving between 3B and LF). That would leave less than $5 Million for CF. Even then, it may require the Reds finding a taker for Masset and Arredondo to make some room in the budget. Might need to send a minor leaguer with some promise with them just to get them off the books.

Might need to look at cheaper platoon options. Roger Bernadina or the previously mentioned Ben Revere might be flawed but usable choices who marginally improve the Cf situation against RHP over Stubbs' obvious flaws.

Benihana
11-23-2012, 10:50 AM
Dejesus - $4.25 Million
Span - $4.75 Million
Choo - Arb eligible $7 Million?
Fowler - Arb Eligible $5 Million?
Ellsbury - Arb Eligible $10 Million?
Victorino = ????
Upton - No way
Bourn - No way

The Reds need 5 players IMO:

1. A Centerfield/lead-off upgrade
2. A Reliever for the late innings to allow Chapman to start
3. A starting caliber player for LF or 3B who can add pop
4. A Corner bench player who can add some offense
5. A MI who can back-up at SS.

The budget is going to dictate a lot of stuff. I'm guessing the Reds only have about $5 to $8 Million to fill those needs. It may require Chapman staying in the pen and a minor league free agent for the MI role (or Didi). If Rolen comes back, say for around $2.5 to $3 Million, the Reds will need to add a guy to split time with him and Frazier could fill the LF role (or a part time OF with Frazier moving between 3B and LF). That would leave less than $5 Million for CF. Even then, it may require the Reds finding a taker for Masset and Arredondo to make some room in the budget. Might need to send a minor leaguer with some promise with them just to get them off the books.

Might need to look at cheaper platoon options. Roger Bernadina or the previously mentioned Ben Revere might be flawed but usable choices who marginally improve the Cf situation against RHP over Stubbs' obvious flaws.
Too many baked in assumptions in this post IMO. The $5-$8mm number is out of thin air- I could see the Reds adding $15mm with the TV revenues ramping up, but of course who knows. I also don't believe #4 and #5 on your list should require anything over $1mm each, and I definitely wouldn't give Rolen $3mm. Id take him back at half of that amount, tops. Otherwise he can retire (I doubt he's going to go somewhere else for an extra $1mm at this point in his life.)

mth123
11-23-2012, 11:04 AM
Too many baked in assumptions in this post IMO. The $5-$8mm number is out of thin air- I could see the Reds adding $15mm with the TV revenues ramping up, but of course who knows. I also don't believe #4 and #5 on your list should require anything over $1mm each, and I definitely wouldn't give Rolen $3mm. Id take him back at half of that amount, tops. Otherwise he can retire (I doubt he's going to go somewhere else for an extra $1mm at this point in his life.)

Not thin air.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/nl-notes-laroche-phillies-reds-cardinals.html




John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer sees the Reds' 2013 payroll being $92MM, but a team insider tells him the actual number could start with an eight.


I have the Reds already at about $90 Million, as is, when all bonus money and buy-outs are added in. $5 to $8 Million seems optimistic at this point, but since the reds have been rumored as kicking the tires on guys like Soria and Ludwick, I'm guessing there is some to spend.

BTW, IIRC the national TV money doesn't ramp up until 2014 and the local money is locked in until 2016.

CySeymour
11-23-2012, 11:24 AM
Looking at possible trade partners for the Reds, it seems obvious to me that the best matchup is Minnesota. Consider:

Twins are woefully short in starting pitching.

Twins lack a SS.

Twins have a RH power hitting LF who hit 4th last year and went 35 HR and 100+ RBI in a pitchers park who is signed to a reasonable 2-year deal -- Willingham.

Twins have a surplus of leadoff-hitting OF talent -- Span, Revere, Hicks (still in upper minors, but coming along nicely).

If I'm betting, I say Jocketty and Terry Ryan get something done.

My guess is he would only deal for Willingham or Span if he could extend them. Probably not the best idea to part with good assets for one year solutions.

mth123
11-23-2012, 11:33 AM
My guess is he would only deal for Willingham or Span if he could extend them. Probably not the best idea to part with good assets for one year solutions.

Extend and restucture in a way that defers some of the 2013 money into future seasons IMO.

Kc61
11-23-2012, 11:57 AM
With the need in CF it's expected that people would discuss Span and Fowler. I hope the Reds stay away.

Reds should go for a short term, or low cost option for CF. This is Billy Hamilton's position and there's no need for a long term, expensive answer.

LF is far more of an issue. There is no hot prospect to fill LF. Ludwick is a free agent. The middle of the order needs a righty bat to hit with Votto and Bruce.

IMO a Willingham would be terrific for the Reds. If it takes some money or prospects to get him, I'd consider it. Re-signing Ludwick would also be reasonable.

The Chapman situation and the bench infielders also will require some activity.

But the Reds should be cautious about CF, Billy is on the way.

mth123
11-23-2012, 12:09 PM
With the need in CF it's expected that people would discuss Span and Fowler. I hope the Reds stay away.

Reds should go for a short term, or low cost option for CF. This is Billy Hamilton's position and there's no need for a long term, expensive answer.

LF is far more of an issue. There is no hot prospect to fill LF. Ludwick is a free agent. The middle of the order needs a righty bat to hit with Votto and Bruce.

IMO a Willingham would be terrific for the Reds. If it takes some money or prospects to get him, I'd consider it. Re-signing Ludwick would also be reasonable.

The Chapman situation and the bench infielders also will require some activity.

But the Reds should be cautious about CF, Billy is on the way.

Mostly agree, which is why I like Dejesus as a stopgap to play CF and lead-off against RHP. It shouldn't take a ton to get him and he'd be a real upgrade.

In LF, I'm starting to think Frazier might be the best option, though I fear a drop-off as a 2nd year guy. If Rolen comes back for cheap and the Reds can acquire a LH bat to split time with him, that may be a cheap way to get by for a year until the budget loosens up with new TV money, Arroyo and Masset off the books and Votto dropping back to $12 Million in 2014. The Reds could probably splurge a little after 2013.

lollipopcurve
11-23-2012, 12:10 PM
But the Reds should be cautious about CF, Billy is on the way.

I'd have to agree with this in principle, but the devil is in the details. When will he be ready? Is the team willing to go with a poor CF (Stubbs is in that category right now, unfortunately) in 2013 just to avoid having a redundancy in 2014? A guy like Span, under contract for 2 years, might give them a boost in 2013 and he would retain some trade value thereafter.

Still, I agree that the team should not give up a Cozart or Bailey for a short-term CF solution like Span. Willingham, under contract for 2 years and possibly extendable beyond that, is a different story. I like him better than Ludwick, and by a pretty significant margin.

corkedbat
11-23-2012, 12:27 PM
If Ludwick's price is beyond $7M, I'd love to see them land Willingham. I'd really like to see an order of:

CF Dexter Fowler
2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
LF Josh Willingham
RF Jay Bruce
3B Todd Frazier
SS Zach Cozart (or) Didi Gregorious
CA Ryan Hanigan

Not holding my breath though.

_Sir_Charles_
11-23-2012, 12:56 PM
Espn posted this today...Sweetspot speculations for big trades



Cincinnati Reds trade CF Billy Hamilton, C Devin Mesoraco, RHP Mike Leake, RHP Sam LeCure and RHP Daniel Corcino to the Minnesota Twins for CF Denard Span, LF Josh Willingham, IF Jamey Carroll and IF Daniel Santana.

The Reds are in win-now mode, and as exciting a prospect as Hamilton is, what is he? A shortstop in the minors, he’s being moved to center field. He has some hitting and on-base skills, but no power, and his adjustment to major league pitching may take a couple of years. As is, he needs a year in Triple-A.

Span gives the Reds the immediate help they need in center field and the top of the order, while fitting nicely into the Reds’ budget. Instead of re-signing Ryan Ludwick, a good bet to regress from his 2012 numbers, Willingham is brought in and Carroll gives the team a better spare infielder than the Miguel Cairo/Wilson Valdez disaster of 2012.

As the Twins rebuild, depth is a priority. They have several good-looking hitting prospects on the way up, but little in the way of pitching. Leake and LeCure are solid back-of the-rotation arms -- which means they’re front-of-the-rotation arms for the Twins. Corcino is a decent pitching prospect who could be ready sometime in 2013. Mesoraco’s status lost some luster in 2012, and the Reds are better off sticking with Ryan Hanigan behind the plate, so he becomes Joe Mauer insurance in Minnesota.

Sorry...no way in heck I'm doing that deal.

757690
11-23-2012, 01:04 PM
Not thin air.

The difference between thin air and Fay as your source is negligible. ;)

But I think you're in the ballpark concerning the payroll. Given the right circumstances, it might get close to $100M, but they'll probably keep it under $95M.

Kc61
11-23-2012, 02:27 PM
Espn posted this today...Sweetspot speculations for big trades



Sorry...no way in heck I'm doing that deal.

Completely agree. And I have this theory about Hamilton. He is close to untouchable. Reds wouldn't trade him for Buster Posey. Or Justin Verlander. Or maybe even this Trout fellow. Nobody.

What the ESPN article ignores is marketing potential. Billy Hamilton is a potential gold mine. He is the most exciting prospect in baseball. A rare prospect because of the excitement factor.

I can see this player boosting TV revenues, home attendance, network coverage, road attendance, you name it.

Whenever I see a trade rumor including Hamilton, I laugh, because it always ignores this factor. A team like the Reds, having tried to boost attendance for many years, cannot let this guy go.

Yes, he's a prospect, he can fail. It's something of a risk. But if Billy turns out to be good, and his legs stay healthy, this guy can single handedly boost this franchise. My guess is the Reds wouldn't trade him for the Twins package - or any package the Twins could put together.

P.S. Ok, if Posey or Trout is available, then I could see them making an exception. Sure.

Vottomatic
11-23-2012, 02:41 PM
The thing about Hamilton is, like Chapman, he's a novelty that will sell tickets.

The entire stadium becomes electricified when Chapman goes to the mound. The same will happen when Billy reaches first base.

Sure, they want to win it all. But second on the list is selling tickets. Hamilton will do that. No way he gets traded.

Vottomatic
11-23-2012, 02:44 PM
Cincinnati Reds trade CF Billy Hamilton, C Devin Mesoraco, RHP Mike Leake, RHP Sam LeCure and RHP Daniel Corcino to the Minnesota Twins for CF Denard Span, LF Josh Willingham, IF Jamey Carroll and IF Daniel Santana.

The Reds are in win-now mode, and as exciting a prospect as Hamilton is, what is he? A shortstop in the minors, he’s being moved to center field. He has some hitting and on-base skills, but no power, and his adjustment to major league pitching may take a couple of years. As is, he needs a year in Triple-A.

Span gives the Reds the immediate help they need in center field and the top of the order, while fitting nicely into the Reds’ budget. Instead of re-signing Ryan Ludwick, a good bet to regress from his 2012 numbers, Willingham is brought in and Carroll gives the team a better spare infielder than the Miguel Cairo/Wilson Valdez disaster of 2012.

As the Twins rebuild, depth is a priority. They have several good-looking hitting prospects on the way up, but little in the way of pitching. Leake and LeCure are solid back-of the-rotation arms -- which means they’re front-of-the-rotation arms for the Twins. Corcino is a decent pitching prospect who could be ready sometime in 2013. Mesoraco’s status lost some luster in 2012, and the Reds are better off sticking with Ryan Hanigan behind the plate, so he becomes Joe Mauer insurance in Minnesota.

Seems almost like the Reds would be doing the going nowhere Twins a favor.

mth123
11-23-2012, 02:54 PM
Here's a deal to chew on that may fit the budget:

Didi Gregorious, Mike Leake, Devin Mesoraco, Chris Heisey and Jose Arredondo to Texas for Alexi Ogando, Mike Olt, Michael Kirkman and Konrad Schmidt.

Olt would be the 3B of the future with Frazier becoming the answer in LF and that would settle both spots for years and provide ample RH pop. Schmidt would be the back-up catcher unless a cheap FA would be better. Ogando would close with Chapman moving into Leake's spot and there wouldn't be much drop off in the pen. That would accomplish most of what the Reds need to do and leave money to acquire a decent option in CF until Hamilton comes along and maybe a bench bat or two. Kirkman would give the Reds another lefty and a long relief option. Giving up Mes hurts, but I'd extend Hanigan for a couple more years and see if Barnhardt or Hudson comes along.

The Rangers would use Mesoraco behind the plate and non-tender Geovanny Soto. Leake goes in the back of the rotation and they could move Didi as part of a deal where teams come sniffing around Texas for a SS (or keep him and feel more free to deal Andrus). Heisey would be insurance for Leonys Martin in CF. Arredondo provides a little experience for a young pen.

Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman
Kirkman

Ogando
Marshall
Hoover
Lecure
Simon/Masset/Ondrusek (pick 2)

Acquisition (vs RHP)/Stubbs (vs LHP) CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Frazier LF
Bruce RF
Olt 3B
Cozart SS
Hanigan/Schmidt C

Paul OF
Burris or other defensive minor league FA IF
Acquisition (IF/OF)

Rolen may be the other bench guy and would be a good choice to help Olt work his way in. I'd target David Dejesus for CF. Jeff Keppinger, Eric Hinske and Wilson Betemit would be good targets for the bench if Rolen decides to retire.

Benihana
11-23-2012, 03:59 PM
Espn posted this today...Sweetspot speculations for big trades



Sorry...no way in heck I'm doing that deal.

That would be a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad trade for the Reds.

It could set us back 5 years.

RedlegJake
11-23-2012, 11:16 PM
I simply agree the Reds wont trade Electric 1 or Electric 2. Its all in fanny in seats and players like Chappy and Sliding Billy can sell tickets winor lose. Only a handful of players
do that and the Reds may have 2. On redszone as fans we Always try to think won first. Reality is mgmnt balances wins/what else will sell tickets-TV/cost vs revenue. I think we are lucky to have an owner who is fairly good about weighting the win element strongly as essential to the rest. In Billy and Chapman both, my opinion, nothing more (that'll get ya a cup of Joe if you come to my place)the mgmnt sees a rare coincidence of all the elements for successful franchise building in these 2 kids. And with the talent locked in around for at least a couple more years...I would agree. Find filler longer trades. If there was a way to prry Willingham though wow. Lefr
t and cleanup would be solved.

Benihana
11-24-2012, 10:44 AM
Wasnt sure where to post this, but The Royals are indeed shopping everyone (including Myers, Moustakas and Gordon) for young pitching. I'd be interested in all three of those guys. I wonder if Leake + one of Corcino/Cingrani would get them interested. Lorenzo Cain might be another name to watch.

The Rockies will listen but the asking price for Fowler is "absurd.". Could come down though.

Choo is available. James Shields has a five-player price tag which is good for the Reds. I'm not sure how many teams can offer the same kind of young pitching the Reds can.

Www.mlbtraderumors.com

757690
11-24-2012, 11:09 AM
Here's a deal to chew on that may fit the budget:

Didi Gregorious, Mike Leake, Devin Mesoraco, Chris Heisey and Jose Arredondo to Texas for Alexi Ogando, Mike Olt, Michael Kirkman and Konrad Schmidt.

Olt would be the 3B of the future with Frazier becoming the answer in LF and that would settle both spots for years and provide ample RH pop. Schmidt would be the back-up catcher unless a cheap FA would be better. Ogando would close with Chapman moving into Leake's spot and there wouldn't be much drop off in the pen. That would accomplish most of what the Reds need to do and leave money to acquire a decent option in CF until Hamilton comes along and maybe a bench bat or two. Kirkman would give the Reds another lefty and a long relief option. Giving up Mes hurts, but I'd extend Hanigan for a couple more years and see if Barnhardt or Hudson comes along.

The Rangers would use Mesoraco behind the plate and non-tender Geovanny Soto. Leake goes in the back of the rotation and they could move Didi as part of a deal where teams come sniffing around Texas for a SS (or keep him and feel more free to deal Andrus). Heisey would be insurance for Leonys Martin in CF. Arredondo provides a little experience for a young pen.

Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman
Kirkman

Ogando
Marshall
Hoover
Lecure
Simon/Masset/Ondrusek (pick 2)

Acquisition (vs RHP)/Stubbs (vs LHP) CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Frazier LF
Bruce RF
Olt 3B
Cozart SS
Hanigan/Schmidt C

Paul OF
Burris or other defensive minor league FA IF
Acquisition (IF/OF)

Rolen may be the other bench guy and would be a good choice to help Olt work his way in. I'd target David Dejesus for CF. Jeff Keppinger, Eric Hinske and Wilson Betemit would be good targets for the bench if Rolen decides to retire.

I basically see that as a trade of Mes for Olt with some other parts flying around.

I would never do that. Both are unknown, but a possible middle order bat at catcher is worth far more than one at 3B. I don't see the need to trade Mes to fill the hole at third, and if I did, I'd want more of an established player coming back.

Benihana
11-24-2012, 11:28 AM
Id trade DiDi for Olt. Would not trade Mez for Olt.

lollipopcurve
11-24-2012, 11:42 AM
I think Olt may be a bit overrated. No way would I trade Didi for him. Reds have plenty of 3B options queueing up. Starting with Frazier and HRod. No way is the marginal improvement that Olt might -- might, not will -- provide over those guys worth Didi. The only kind of 3B option the Reds should even consider is a great offensive player, like Wright or Headley.

mth123
11-24-2012, 12:07 PM
I basically see that as a trade of Mes for Olt with some other parts flying around.

I would never do that. Both are unknown, but a possible middle order bat at catcher is worth far more than one at 3B. I don't see the need to trade Mes to fill the hole at third, and if I did, I'd want more of an established player coming back.

Ogando would be the closer for the next few years and allow Chapman to go to the rotation. Ogando has an arm on par with Chapman, Latos and Bailey. The Reds don't have internal options like that.

mth123
11-24-2012, 12:13 PM
I think Olt may be a bit overrated. No way would I trade Didi for him. Reds have plenty of 3B options queueing up. Starting with Frazier and HRod. No way is the marginal improvement that Olt might -- might, not will -- provide over those guys worth Didi. The only kind of 3B option the Reds should even consider is a great offensive player, like Wright or Headley.

Olt is a significant defensive upgrade from either Frazier or H-Rod at 3B. Frazier would be free to become the every day LF. Phillips, Votto, Frazier, Bruce and Olt would lock-up the 2 - 6 spots of the order for the next several years. If Hamilton can provide the lead-off guy on top, the Reds can win with Cozart and Hanigan providing plus defense at key spots and hitting at the bottom of the order. Couple that with Latos, Cueto, Bailey and Chapman in the rotation and this team could win a couple of championships. Maybe Mes could be the bat that Olt is, but the Reds don't really have any players for OF or 3B who would provide the production that Olt will IMO. The Reds have redundancy at C and SS, they really don't have any corner power guys on the horizon.

Don't overlook Ogando. He has a huge arm. I wouldn't do the deal without him.

Not real high on H-Rod at this point.

IMO, the Reds can't afford Wright or Headley, or Willingham or Ludwick for that matter.

757690
11-24-2012, 10:01 PM
Ogando would be the closer for the next few years and allow Chapman to go to the rotation. Ogando has an arm on par with Chapman, Latos and Bailey. The Reds don't have internal options like that.

Really like Ogando, but you're giving up Leake and Didi for him as I break down the trade.

Basically, you're giving up a solid, young affordable starter, a top SS prospect whose MLB ready, and a potential middle of the lineup up catcher, for a closer and a potential middle of the lineup 3B.

What you're getting isn't hard to find. What you're giving up is.

Still, I like you're thinking, just not the particulars.

mth123
11-25-2012, 01:19 AM
Really like Ogando, but you're giving up Leake and Didi for him as I break down the trade.

Basically, you're giving up a solid, young affordable starter, a top SS prospect whose MLB ready, and a potential middle of the lineup up catcher, for a closer and a potential middle of the lineup 3B.

What you're getting isn't hard to find. What you're giving up is.

Still, I like you're thinking, just not the particulars.

What is easy to find about Oganodo and Olt? Where else can we find them for basically the minimum in 2013?

I think Leake is a back-end starter who is now arb eligible and Didi is a nice glove, but he's not going to be an elite player. What I'm thinking is to deal stuff we can spare (SS, Catcher, 5th starter) for stuff we don't have which is a big arm to close with and a guy to provide power from a corner position and doing it without taking on any salary which will allow the team to pursue an option in CF.

The problem with this deal is that Texas probably wouldn't do it.

757690
11-25-2012, 02:13 AM
What is easy to find about Oganodo and Olt? Where else can we find them for basically the minimum in 2013?

I think Leake is a back-end starter who is now arb eligible and Didi is a nice glove, but he's not going to be an elite player. What I'm thinking is to deal stuff we can spare (SS, Catcher, 5th starter) for stuff we don't have which is a big arm to close with and a guy to provide power from a corner position and doing it without taking on any salary which will allow the team to pursue an option in CF.

The problem with this deal is that Texas probably wouldn't do it.

We can find Olt in Mes, and he catches, Mes is far more valuable. Plus we have no idea what Olt can do.

Ogando is a plus arm, but what the Reds really need is a closer. They are much easier to find.

Why trade Mes when you can fill the 3B and closer hole by easily by trading Leake and Didi, or through free agency. They are really easy to fill.

Btw, I think the Rangers would jump at a chance to get Mes and Leake.

PuffyPig
11-25-2012, 07:14 AM
The Reds have redundancy at C and SS, they really don't have any corner power guys on the horizon.

We basically have two C and SS; trading Didi and Mes leaves us woefully short at those positions . We don't need to trade, in particular, Mes to essentially fill the LF spot.

mth123
11-25-2012, 07:52 AM
Just looked at this again. I think you guys are right and that it would be an overpay. I had it in my head that Olt was farther along in his development than he is. I'd still like to get Ogando and Olt, but if Mes is an overpay, I'm not sure they match up so well.

If Texas is still looking for a SS, a deal involvng Didi for either would be a good idea IMO, but I'd guess that the Rangers would want more. I'm actually more interested in Ogando than Olt. I think he's the perfect power arm to close and allow Chapman to start. If they could add one for the minimum while keeping Leake as the 6th starter, it would be ideal.

REDREAD
11-26-2012, 02:26 PM
I wonder if the Twins will be more realistic on their asking prices for Span and Willingham this winter.

I remember some writer saying that at last year's trading deadline that the prices for both these guys was "through the roof"..

Kind of a shame that we weren't able to snag Willingham as a FA, although if I remember, he signed quite early and the Reds main prioirty at the time was bolstering the pitching (which I agree with). I can see why Walt didn't want to blow a lot of his money on an OF early in the offseason.

Benihana
11-26-2012, 06:20 PM
I wonder if the Twins will be more realistic on their asking prices for Span and Willingham this winter.

I remember some writer saying that at last year's trading deadline that the prices for both these guys was "through the roof"..

Kind of a shame that we weren't able to snag Willingham as a FA, although if I remember, he signed quite early and the Reds main prioirty at the time was bolstering the pitching (which I agree with). I can see why Walt didn't want to blow a lot of his money on an OF early in the offseason.

If the reports of Broxton's imminent signing and Chapman's subsequent move to the rotation are correct, the Reds can afford to ship Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani for an OF or two. I'd have to think those arms would be enticing in a deal for Span or Willingham, and if the Reds added an additional prospect or two, maybe both of them.

I would imagine the Twins would have to throw in some cash to cover (or maybe take Stubbs back), but these days you never know.

Of course I would try first for Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler with those same guys as bait, but that's just me.

_Sir_Charles_
11-27-2012, 10:40 AM
If the reports of Broxton's imminent signing and Chapman's subsequent move to the rotation are correct, the Reds can afford to ship Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani for an OF or two. I'd have to think those arms would be enticing in a deal for Span or Willingham, and if the Reds added an additional prospect or two, maybe both of them.

I would imagine the Twins would have to throw in some cash to cover (or maybe take Stubbs back), but these days you never know.

Of course I would try first for Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler with those same guys as bait, but that's just me.

Just out of curiosity...why is it that we can now afford to deal away Leake and Cingrani/Corcino? Chapman won't be able to pitch 200 innings so we'll need a 6th starter for certain. Injuries happen (as does pitchers struggling) so I'd say it's a near certainty that we'll also need a 7th starter. Add in an 8th just for safety's sake too IMO. I can see us dangling one of Corcino/Cingrani, but not both and certainly not one of the current starting 5.

REDREAD
11-27-2012, 10:56 AM
If the reports of Broxton's imminent signing and Chapman's subsequent move to the rotation are correct, the Reds can afford to ship Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani for an OF or two. I'd have to think those arms would be enticing in a deal for Span or Willingham, and if the Reds added an additional prospect or two, maybe both of them.

I would imagine the Twins would have to throw in some cash to cover (or maybe take Stubbs back), but these days you never know.

Of course I would try first for Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler with those same guys as bait, but that's just me.

That's true. I didn't know about Broxton being close when I wrote that.
I guess I'd be on board with trading some pitching for Willingham.
I really don't want to spend a lot of resources for Span, even though he is an upgrade to Stubbs. IMO, LF is a higher priority than CF. Recent history shows we needed the 2010 Gomes and the 2012 Ludwick to help the offense..
In other words, if we get Span, but then are forced to play Paul/Heisey/Stubbs in LF, I think the team has moved backwards.

Benihana
11-27-2012, 11:44 AM
Just out of curiosity...why is it that we can now afford to deal away Leake and Cingrani/Corcino? Chapman won't be able to pitch 200 innings so we'll need a 6th starter for certain. Injuries happen (as does pitchers struggling) so I'd say it's a near certainty that we'll also need a 7th starter. Add in an 8th just for safety's sake too IMO. I can see us dangling one of Corcino/Cingrani, but not both and certainly not one of the current starting 5.

Um, because if you hoard 8 major league starting pitchers "just for safety's sake" when you have other glaring holes you need to fill in the starting lineup, you're not going to be a very good team.

While I agree that he won't throw 200 innings, moving Chapman to the rotation allows the Reds to be flexible with Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani, meaning they could be dealt for the right parts.

The Reds would still have a 1-5 of Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo & Chapman with Redmond and one of Corcino/Cingrani filling in for Chapman's remaining innings and/or one of the SP getting injured. Yes, it's not 8 deep, but no team is- nor can they afford to be when there are other weaknesses to address.


That's true. I didn't know about Broxton being close when I wrote that.
I guess I'd be on board with trading some pitching for Willingham.
I really don't want to spend a lot of resources for Span, even though he is an upgrade to Stubbs. IMO, LF is a higher priority than CF. Recent history shows we needed the 2010 Gomes and the 2012 Ludwick to help the offense..
In other words, if we get Span, but then are forced to play Paul/Heisey/Stubbs in LF, I think the team has moved backwards.

Completely agree- Span is my least favorite trade target of all the "available" OF (Willingham, J.Upton, Fowler, Ellsbury, Choo, Myers, Gordon, etc.)

mdccclxix
11-27-2012, 11:50 AM
I just don't know how the OF will be addressed, but that aside I do like keeping Leake in the bullpen and Cingrani/Corcino for late 2013 and 2014 as well. You have to like your chances that 1 out of those 3 players will be able to step up in 2014 when Arroyo, Bailey and Latos are all much more expensive or gone.

Does anyone have a projection for Cingrani and Corcino in the milb top 100?

As for the Twins, I don't think the Reds really like Willingham, or they'd have signed him when they had a chance. As for Span, he's signed for longer than the Reds need and would cost a bit.

_Sir_Charles_
11-27-2012, 12:35 PM
Um, because if you hoard 8 major league starting pitchers "just for safety's sake" when you have other glaring holes you need to fill in the starting lineup, you're not going to be a very good team.

While I agree that he won't throw 200 innings, moving Chapman to the rotation allows the Reds to be flexible with Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani, meaning they could be dealt for the right parts.

The Reds would still have a 1-5 of Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo & Chapman with Redmond and one of Corcino/Cingrani filling in for Chapman's remaining innings and/or one of the SP getting injured. Yes, it's not 8 deep, but no team is- nor can they afford to be when there are other weaknesses to address.

2 of the 3 might not even be ready for the Majors yet. The jury's still out on Corcino & Cingrani. Leake is vastly underappreciated IMO. So it's not really 8 deep regardless. But I certainly don't deal away promising young pitchers when we've got an unknown in Chapman and next season we lose Bronson. Trade Leake away and one of the C's...come 2014 we could be hurting to fill out that rotation. Especially if Chapman performs as a starter like he did the first time around.

Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of moving Aroldis to the rotation. But I personally don't think Cingrani or Corcino are quite ready for the show yet and I want to hold onto Leake to fill Bronson's void in 2014. I'd certainly be willing to deal one of the C's in the right deal, but I don't feel that we're in a position where we "need" to deal them. We've got other pieces we can deal to bring in what we need.

2013
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Chapman/Leake (Corcino/Cingrani in AAA)
2014
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake (Corcino/Cingrani in AAA if still starting)
2015
Cueto possibly gone, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, one of Corcino/Cingrani

Leake fills a major void once Bronson leaves. And I want some options come 2015. Stephenson should be knocking on the door, but one of the C's with some solid AAA experience under their belt might just be the ticket.

(and I'm guessing that both Latos & Bailey are going to get extensions this offseason. If not, Latos is a FA come 2016 and Homer in 2015.)

mdccclxix
11-27-2012, 01:22 PM
2 of the 3 might not even be ready for the Majors yet. The jury's still out on Corcino & Cingrani. Leake is vastly underappreciated IMO. So it's not really 8 deep regardless. But I certainly don't deal away promising young pitchers when we've got an unknown in Chapman and next season we lose Bronson. Trade Leake away and one of the C's...come 2014 we could be hurting to fill out that rotation. Especially if Chapman performs as a starter like he did the first time around.

Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of moving Aroldis to the rotation. But I personally don't think Cingrani or Corcino are quite ready for the show yet and I want to hold onto Leake to fill Bronson's void in 2014. I'd certainly be willing to deal one of the C's in the right deal, but I don't feel that we're in a position where we "need" to deal them. We've got other pieces we can deal to bring in what we need.

2013
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Chapman/Leake (Corcino/Cingrani in AAA)
2014
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake (Corcino/Cingrani in AAA if still starting)
2015
Cueto possibly gone, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, one of Corcino/Cingrani

Leake fills a major void once Bronson leaves. And I want some options come 2015. Stephenson should be knocking on the door, but one of the C's with some solid AAA experience under their belt might just be the ticket.

(and I'm guessing that both Latos & Bailey are going to get extensions this offseason. If not, Latos is a FA come 2016 and Homer in 2015.)

Good stuff. I think it's noticeable too that when Arroyo is gone Chapman will be the one to step in. The Reds can no longer wait to try him in the rotation, it must begin in 2013 if it's going to work best long term. Along those same lines, if Chapman does work out it provides clarity on Bailey and Latos' futures. I predict an extension for Latos this year and one for Bailey in 2014, after it becomes clear if he's really grown up and can stay healthy and if Chapman will be effective. I think Latos' track record speaks loud enough to sign him on asap.