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View Full Version : Would you...Homer Bailey for Wil Myers?



Benihana
11-24-2012, 10:46 AM
Seems like a reasonable deal if you have the appetite- do you?

_Sir_Charles_
11-24-2012, 11:01 AM
I like Myers. I think he'll turn out to be a very good player. But I think the same of Homer...and pitching wins everytime. Stick with David.

Scrap Irony
11-24-2012, 11:04 AM
Ouch. Tough call.

Likely not, as I believe Bailey has turned the proverbial corner.

But Myers is a stud that might be good enough to hit cleanup for a decade.

I'd probably stick with the sure thing. Baliey's at least a MOR starter; Myers is a prospect.

(If Myers were still a catcher, I'd switch my vote.)

mth123
11-24-2012, 12:00 PM
Tough call. Probably a big step backwards for the pitching staff. KC may be more inclined to go after Corcino/Cingrani and other stuff. I'd rather deal that as well. Leake, Corcino and H-Rod for Mike Moustakas would be a deal I'd rather do.

Steve4192
11-24-2012, 01:29 PM
I think it is a year too late to get Myers at a reasonable rate. After the year he just had, the Royals probably have no interest in moving him.

cinreds21
11-24-2012, 03:02 PM
Am I the only one who thinks that Bailey wouldn't get anything close to Wil Myers.

Superdude
11-24-2012, 03:16 PM
Am I the only one who thinks that Bailey wouldn't get anything close to Wil Myers.

Yea this deal makes no sense at all.

dougdirt
11-24-2012, 03:27 PM
Am I the only one who thinks that Bailey wouldn't get anything close to Wil Myers.

I think Myers is worth more, yet I still wouldn't pull the trigger for the Reds.

cinreds21
11-24-2012, 03:28 PM
Maybe I'm just not as high on Bailey as everyone else. He was suppose to be an ace and he's never been that. He did do better last year, but he's still not that number one starter that everyone had dreams about.

Superdude
11-24-2012, 03:31 PM
Maybe I'm just not as high on Bailey as everyone else. He was suppose to be an ace and he's never been that. He did do better last year, but he's still not that number one starter that everyone had dreams about.

I like Bailey when he's healthy, but I think it has more to do with KC losing 90 games and Myers being their top prospect. If they're trading him, I doubt they're looking for a soon to be expensive mid rotation starter in return.

cinreds21
11-24-2012, 03:36 PM
I like Bailey when he's healthy, but I think it has more to do with KC losing 90 games and Myers being their top prospect. If they're trading him, I doubt they're looking for a soon to be expensive mid rotation starter in return.

But from what I've read, they would be willing to spend money for a starter. All the guys they are/were rumored to be interested in would cost money either this year or next year via arbitration, so I don't think it's a money thing. I just don't think Bailey is worth trading Wil Myers from Kanas City's perspective. Myers is a top five prospect in baseball. You don't trade that straight-up for a number three rotation guy who has never lived up to expectations. You trade him for a James Shields or Jeremy Hellickson.

dougdirt
11-24-2012, 03:37 PM
Maybe I'm just not as high on Bailey as everyone else. He was suppose to be an ace and he's never been that. He did do better last year, but he's still not that number one starter that everyone had dreams about.

Bailey isn't an ACE, but I think he is still underrated by a lot of guys.

I mean let's assume there are 15 #1 pitchers in the NL. He was inside the Top 15 in innings pitched. He was inside the Top 20 in strikeouts. He was #13 in ERA+ (for qualified starters). He was #25 in WHIP (for qualified starters). He was #15 in K/BB rate.

By those numbers, Bailey was a borderline #1 in the National League.

bellhead
11-24-2012, 03:42 PM
Look at what the Reds gave up for Latos last year, that trade sets the bar for top of the rotation arms...

cinreds21
11-24-2012, 03:48 PM
Bailey isn't an ACE, but I think he is still underrated by a lot of guys.

I mean let's assume there are 15 #1 pitchers in the NL. He was inside the Top 15 in innings pitched. He was inside the Top 20 in strikeouts. He was #13 in ERA+ (for qualified starters). He was #25 in WHIP (for qualified starters). He was #15 in K/BB rate.

By those numbers, Bailey was a borderline #1 in the National League.

I see what you're saying, but I don't think every team has a true ace. Colorado, San Diego and Houston are examples. In baseball, there are really only 10-15 true aces.

dougdirt
11-24-2012, 03:50 PM
I see what you're saying, but I don't think every team has a true ace. Colorado, San Diego and Houston are examples. In baseball, there are really only 10-15 true aces.

I am with you. But even still, Bailey provides value that a whole lot of other pitchers don't in the National League. He just happened to be overlooked because of how good the other Reds starters were.

cinreds21
11-24-2012, 03:52 PM
I am with you. But even still, Bailey provides value that a whole lot of other pitchers don't in the National League. He just happened to be overlooked because of how good the other Reds starters were.

Good point. Hopefully in 2013 he'll finally blossom and put up an ERA around 2.50 or so. I just don't think when the Reds drafted him they envisioned a 10-13 record with a 3.68 ERA being great for him.

Wonderful Monds
11-24-2012, 04:03 PM
I am with Doug on this one. I think Myers has a lot more trade value than Bailey. But I still wouldn't trade Bailey for him because I think Bailey could be our best pitcher at some point.

That is unless you could turn around and trade Myers for David Price, maybe then I would do it.

Superdude
11-24-2012, 04:08 PM
Good point. Hopefully in 2013 he'll finally blossom and put up an ERA around 2.50 or so. I just don't think when the Reds drafted him they envisioned a 10-13 record with a 3.68 ERA being great for him.

Homer's prospect days are long behind us now. I'm sure the Reds were thrilled with what he did last year and would be perfectly content if he did the same thing next year.

TOBTTReds
11-24-2012, 04:16 PM
I just don't think when the Reds drafted him they envisioned a 10-13 record with a 3.68 ERA being great for him.

Where he was drafted or high of a prospect he was is long gone. He made his debut 5 1/2 years ago.

Regardless, Myers for Bailey...I do in a heart beat, and I'm a big supporter of Homer.

dougdirt
11-24-2012, 04:21 PM
Good point. Hopefully in 2013 he'll finally blossom and put up an ERA around 2.50 or so. I just don't think when the Reds drafted him they envisioned a 10-13 record with a 3.68 ERA being great for him.

When the Reds drafted Bailey I don't know if they knew much about how their ballpark played. If you told them that he would give them 200+ innings and a park adjusted ERA that was one of the 15 best in the NL, I bet they would have been pretty happy with that. Now I am sure they would have liked it before 2012.

Rojo
11-24-2012, 04:35 PM
I'm wondering if Myers makes Dee Gordon available.

mth123
11-24-2012, 05:15 PM
I'm wondering if Myers makes Dee Gordon available.

Took me a while to figure out you mean Alex Gordon. I'd guess it could, but he just signed a deal and will make $9 Nillion in 2013. That's not awful, but I'm not sure the Reds could swing it unless they agreed to take Masset as well.

Bailey, Heisey and Masset for Gordon and Crow? I really hate to lose Homer. I really think Chapman stepping into Homer's spot will be a lateral move for the 2013 rotation at best, while blowing a massive hole in the pen. If the Reds could get Crow, it might only be a slight downgrade for the staff with a big improvement in the OF but its not a slam dunk IMO.

I guess I'm a lot more hesitant on Myers. I see these hyped KC prospects like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas putting up OPS numbers of .663 and .708 and wonder if Myers will follow suit and take a while for his bat to get where it needs to be at the big league level. I think the Reds need more production now if they are dealing an established starter. I'd take Moustakas or Myers for Leake and one of the young propsects like Corcino or Cingrani, but not for Bailey. Chapman for Leake in the rotation with Crow backfilling in the pen is an upgrade to the staff, but when its Bailey instead, I think its likely a step back.

Steve4192
11-24-2012, 05:39 PM
I really hate to lose Homer. I really think Chapman stepping into Homer's spot will be a lateral move for the 2013 rotation at best, while blowing a massive hole in the pen.

I wouldn't call it a lateral move. I'd call it a risky move. Chapman could turn out to be legit ace, a mediocrity, or could blow his arm out due to the increased workload. The Reds might be significantly better off with him in the rotation or significantly worse off. I doubt they would be the same.

hebroncougar
11-24-2012, 05:43 PM
Only because the Reds are in "win now" mode, no I wouldn't. Very rarely do hitters come up and produce like #4 hitters do, if Myers does that in 3 years, it might not do us any good. The Reds need production now, if they're giving up an arm like Bailey.

MikeS21
11-24-2012, 05:56 PM
No. Once you get pitching you hang on to it. Don't believe the garbage that says:"In order to get talent you have to give up talent." That is for teams who who can't seem to make decent trades.

How much legitimate talent has been acquired by teams who leave us scratching our head because they didn't give up anything?

mth123
11-24-2012, 06:00 PM
I wouldn't call it a lateral move. I'd call it a risky move. Chapman could turn out to be legit ace, a mediocrity, or could blow his arm out due to the increased workload. The Reds might be significantly better off with him in the rotation or significantly worse off. I doubt they would be the same.

Depends on what you think Bailey is likely to do in 2013. If your expectations are some improvement over 2012, that's a pretty high bar to expect for a guy who has never pitched 125 innings in any season (including Cuba), hasn't had to work his way through a line-up multiple times at the big league level and has shown some propensity to tire and lose velocity after 20 pitches or so. I think there is a lot of downside to replacing Bailey with Chapman. Of course there is some upside too, but, say for example, he's a "success" and puts up a year like another power arm, Yu Darvish, did in 2012. That's a lateral move and he won't provide it for 200 innings.

There is a lot less downside if Leake is the guy that Chapman replaces IMO. Personally, I'm not real fond of the idea of trading any of the starters. I'd get a reliever, stick Chapman in the five spot and let Leake be the swingman. The Rotation lacks big league ready depth and isn't likely to go all season with all 5 guys making all their starts again. If Chapman is in the rotation, we can be almost certain that he won't make 30 starts. They can address the offense by dealng kids and making marginal upgrades by acquiring flawed guys whose strengths fit the Reds needs and weaknesses can be minimized with platoons and spot play.

I'm all for trying Chapman in the rotation provided they cover the pen with an acquisituion, but my expectations for 2013 look a lot more like 2011 Edinson Volquez than they do vintage Randy Johnson. Along those lines, I might be more inclinded to deal Chapman for Myers than I would Bailey. Of course, I'd want Crow too in that deal.

cinreds21
11-24-2012, 06:02 PM
Took me a while to figure out you mean Alex Gordon. I'd guess it could, but he just signed a deal and will make $9 Nillion in 2013. That's not awful, but I'm not sure the Reds could swing it unless they agreed to take Masset as well.

Bailey, Heisey and Masset for Gordon and Crow? I really hate to lose Homer. I really think Chapman stepping into Homer's spot will be a lateral move for the 2013 rotation at best, while blowing a massive hole in the pen. If the Reds could get Crow, it might only be a slight downgrade for the staff with a big improvement in the OF but its not a slam dunk IMO.

I guess I'm a lot more hesitant on Myers. I see these hyped KC prospects like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas putting up OPS numbers of .663 and .708 and wonder if Myers will follow suit and take a while for his bat to get where it needs to be at the big league level. I think the Reds need more production now if they are dealing an established starter. I'd take Moustakas or Myers for Leake and one of the young propsects like Corcino or Cingrani, but not for Bailey. Chapman for Leake in the rotation with Crow backfilling in the pen is an upgrade to the staff, but when its Bailey instead, I think its likely a step back.

They are likely only going to trade only one of Myers, Gordon, Moustakas or Hosmer to get an arm. However, Gordon could likely be had and I'd be a fan of it. A package of Bailey/Corcino/Cingrani, Didi and a C-level prospect could get one of them, in my opinion. However, not sure if they have use for Didi as they already have Escobar. Maybe one of them could play second? Also, I highly doubt a team would trade for Masset as he's making $3 million and is coming off an injury.

mth123
11-24-2012, 06:10 PM
They are likely only going to trade only one of Myers, Gordon, Moustakas or Hosmer to get an arm. However, Gordon could likely be had and I'd be a fan of it. A package of Bailey/Corcino/Cingrani, Didi and a C-level prospect could get one of them, in my opinion. However, not sure if they have use for Didi as they already have Escobar. Maybe one of them could play second? Also, I highly doubt a team would trade for Masset as he's making $3 million and is coming off an injury.

Nobody is proposing more than one of those hitters. I doubt they would take Masset either unless they want the rest of the deal. The Reds likely can't fit Gordon into the budget unless Masset goes.

Benihana
11-24-2012, 06:39 PM
If I'm the Reds, I call the Royals, Dbacks, Rockies, Red Sox, Twins and Indians.

I tell them I'm willing to trade a package centered around 2 of Leake, Corcino, and Cingrani for their OF (Myers/Gordon, J.Upton, Fowler, Ellsbury, Willingham/Span and Choo respectively). See who bites.

I'd only trade either Corcino or Cingrani for Choo (not Leake). Same for either of the Twins OF individually although I'd include two pitchers for both of them.

I realize there might have to be more included, especially in a deal for Upton or Fowler. But is want to see which team got the most excited about those pitchers. It would appear that it's a buyers market if you have the kind of young pitching currency the Reds do.

MartyFan
11-24-2012, 06:40 PM
Maybe I'm just not as high on Bailey as everyone else. He was suppose to be an ace and he's never been that. He did do better last year, but he's still not that number one starter that everyone had dreams about.

The dude is still only 26 years old. I know he has been around the Reds forever but he is ONLY 26 years old. If he stays a 2-3-4 in the rotation, he's done more than most guys who were projected to be "aces".

Also, he could easily pitch at a 2-3 level for the next 12 years...he hasn't even started yet.

Tell me he wasn't rushed to the Reds...he was...and now he is figuring it out.

Sorry, I know it sound slike I am jumping all over you but I really do not mean to, I just read that and thought "wow, 26 years old and he is supposed to have everything figured out...wow".

_Sir_Charles_
11-24-2012, 06:50 PM
The dude is still only 26 years old. I know he has been around the Reds forever but he is ONLY 26 years old. If he stays a 2-3-4 in the rotation, he's done more than most guys who were projected to be "aces".

Also, he could easily pitch at a 2-3 level for the next 12 years...he hasn't even started yet.

Tell me he wasn't rushed to the Reds...he was...and now he is figuring it out.

Sorry, I know it sound slike I am jumping all over you but I really do not mean to, I just read that and thought "wow, 26 years old and he is supposed to have everything figured out...wow".

Could not agree more. People have gotten tired of waiting for Homer to become what he was supposed to become but everybody forgets how early he was rushed to the bigs. He was nowhere near ready and I think that's only pushed him further back due to it hurting his confidence. Just my 2 cents of course.

Wonderful Monds
11-24-2012, 06:51 PM
No. Once you get pitching you hang on to it. Don't believe the garbage that says:"In order to get talent you have to give up talent." That is for teams who who can't seem to make decent trades.

How much legitimate talent has been acquired by teams who leave us scratching our head because they didn't give up anything?

When did Jim Bowden start posting on RedsZone?

Vottomatic
11-24-2012, 07:10 PM
Wow. Lots of varying opinions in this thread. Here's my take:

Homer Bailey
I've not been in his camp at all for most of his career, citing Cueto beating him to the majors amid all the hype about Bailey. But by the end of 2012, clearly Bailey was pitching as well, if not better than any starting pitcher in our rotation. I was very impressed and very confident in him. In the past, I've been bothered by his chronic injuries that have kept him from pitching 30 starts. But he trained hard last offseason and had a solid, if not very good season. An e.r.a. in the mid-3.00's is very good today. And he's only 26. I think he gets better and better from here on out. My only concern about Homer would be if he regresses back to some fragility and misses a bunch of starts here and there. That would be the ONLY reason I'd consider trading him.....OR.......some team overpays to get him, which I don't see happening. I can't remember the Reds ever having a starting pitching rotation so young and so good in my lifetime. I'm reluctant to tinker with it, honestly.

Myers
Would be a young, cheap, under control solution to the ongoing void in LF, no doubt. Answer to clean up hitter too, possibly. I'd rather trade Leake and one of Corcino or Cingrani. Although I'm a bit hesitant to do that if the Reds don't feel they can pony up enough money to sign Arroyo post-2013, which leads to the need for Cingrani or Corcino to step up. And I highly doubt KC would trade their top prospect for Leake and one of our top triple A pitchers........but maybe they would.

It almost seems like so many questions could be answered by mid-2013 or the end of the season, such as Hamilton, Corcino, and Cingrani's progress/future with the team. And you could throw in Gregorius too. I realize BP, Votto and others aren't getting any younger. But theoretically, this team should be better next season than it was this season. Part of me wants to stand pat and see how the major league club does and how our future stars in the farm system progress. Hamilton might surprise and be in the majors sooner than expected.......or not. But if he makes that leap, you save yourself from trading for a rental.

Another thought is, what if 2013 brings a rash of injuries to the major league club and they falter and have a mediocre season? Surely, then you can wheel and deal a bit at that point too.

corkedbat
11-24-2012, 07:27 PM
Doubt the Royals would go for it, but if they did agree, I'd jump at it before they had a chance to re-think. I love Homer and would much rather deal Leake from the rotation if I had a choice, but for a young cotrollable bat like Myers? Hell yeah! Especially if they're moving Aroldis to the rotation. I'd also think about re-visiting the rumored Garza/Dejesus deal with the Baby Bears and I'd sign Madson.

mth123
11-24-2012, 07:39 PM
Doubt the Royals would go for it, but if they did agree, I'd jump at it before they had a chance to re-think. I love Homer and would much rather deal Leake from the rotation if I had a choice, but for a young cotrollable bat like Myers? Hell yeah! Especially if they're moving Aroldis to the rotation. I'd also think about re-visiting the rumored Garza/Dejesus deal with the Baby Bears and I'd sign Madson.

I'd do all that too if money was no object. How do they fit all that into a $92 Million payroll?

dunner13
11-24-2012, 08:35 PM
Homer is a good pitcher but not anywhere near the ace he was hyped to be. I don't think his stuff is as good as it was in the minors, his average fastball last year was 92.4. He was supposed to be the next Roger Clemens. Realistically I would say hes a very solid #3 and I doubt he can pitch as good as he did for the last part of last year for a whole season. If you can get a middle of the order bat for him then you sell high and move him. We also have to consider that Homer is going to start getting more and more expensive, 2012 is probably the last year we get him below market value. If the Royals would trade Myers for him I think you have to make that deal especially with Chapman ready to come into the rotation, and good options in the minors.

Crumbley
11-24-2012, 08:47 PM
How is Myers' glove?

Wonderful Monds
11-24-2012, 09:04 PM
How is Myers' glove?

He's played some CF and runs decently, he'd probably make a capable LF at least.

Plus he's a former catcher so I imagine he's got at least a decent arm.

Steve4192
11-24-2012, 10:01 PM
Homer is a good pitcher but not anywhere near the ace he was hyped to be. I don't think his stuff is as good as it was in the minors, his average fastball last year was 92.4. He was supposed to be the next Roger Clemens. Realistically I would say hes a very solid #3 and I doubt he can pitch as good as he did for the last part of last year for a whole season. If you can get a middle of the order bat for him then you sell high and move him.

Problem is, Myers is middle of the order bat in the same way that Homer was a sure-fire Cy Young winner. Like Homer when he was everyone's favorite pitching prospect, we haven't seen Myers warts yet. For all we know, Myers might be the second coming of Albert Pujols .... or the second coming of Andy Marte.

kaldaniels
11-24-2012, 10:33 PM
One day there will be a Bailey thread where the phrase "he was supposed to be an ace" won't be brought up.

It's no longer relevant to me, I think he should be discussed on his merits, not his projection 5 years ago.

Superdude
11-24-2012, 11:07 PM
One day there will be a Bailey thread where the phrase "he was supposed to be an ace" won't be brought up.

It's no longer relevant to me, I think he should be discussed on his merits, not his projection 5 years ago.

Seriously. The fact that Homer Bailey was the second coming of Roger Clemens six years ago means little at this point. Him and Bruce can't seem to do anything without it being viewed against what a scout projected a half decade ago.

corkedbat
11-25-2012, 12:05 AM
I'd do all that too if money was no object. How do they fit all that into a $92 Million payroll?

Same way they were going to do it with last year's budget. :D

dougdirt
11-25-2012, 12:46 AM
Homer is a good pitcher but not anywhere near the ace he was hyped to be. I don't think his stuff is as good as it was in the minors, his average fastball last year was 92.4. He was supposed to be the next Roger Clemens. Realistically I would say hes a very solid #3 and I doubt he can pitch as good as he did for the last part of last year for a whole season. If you can get a middle of the order bat for him then you sell high and move him. We also have to consider that Homer is going to start getting more and more expensive, 2012 is probably the last year we get him below market value. If the Royals would trade Myers for him I think you have to make that deal especially with Chapman ready to come into the rotation, and good options in the minors.

Homer Bailey is already better than a very solid #3 starting pitcher.

dunner13
11-25-2012, 08:11 AM
Homer Bailey is already better than a very solid #3 starting pitcher.

Doug, serious question not trying to argue. Last year was Baileys first year with an ERA under 4.5ish, looking at his stats what tells you that 12 wasnt just everything going his way and that 2011 isn't really the real Bailey? His WHIP, HR/9 , SO/9 were all pretty much the same and he still gives up about a hit per inning. If he can keep his ERA in the mid 3's then your right he is more then a #3 but I'm just not convinced that he can.

_Sir_Charles_
11-25-2012, 09:25 AM
Doug, serious question not trying to argue. Last year was Baileys first year with an ERA under 4.5ish, looking at his stats what tells you that 12 wasnt just everything going his way and that 2011 isn't really the real Bailey? His WHIP, HR/9 , SO/9 were all pretty much the same and he still gives up about a hit per inning. If he can keep his ERA in the mid 3's then your right he is more then a #3 but I'm just not convinced that he can.

Personally, I thought he had some crappy luck in both 10 and 11. I had dug up the information a long time ago (don't have the time to re-dig them up), but IIRC his peripherals suggested his numbers "should've" been much better than they were both seasons. Take it FWIW.

Benihana
11-25-2012, 10:43 AM
I've found that usually when there is roughly a 50/50 split on a RZ trade poll, it usually means the trade is of reasonable value to both sides, or in other words a relatively fair trade.

This would be somewhat akin to the Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum trade.

mth123
11-25-2012, 10:56 AM
I think fans need some perspective on Bailey. His status was diminished among many because he was promoted before he was ready because the Reds didn't really have anybody else. Then, in late 2009 when he was starting to put it together, he was ridden too hard by Dusty and Dick Pole to a 60+ inning increase over anything he'd done up to that point. The next two seasons he struggled with arm issues as happens frequently when too many innings are forced on a kid age 23 or less.

Now he's come out the other side and established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter with potential for more at age 26. That's the same age as a guy who is viewed as a future ace based on one season in the big leagues that is pretty darned similar. The difference being that the other guy spent 5 years building his legend against inferior competition in Japan while Bailey lost his luster while taking his lumps and suffering abuse at the hands of the Reds management. If he ends up a mid-roation starter in 2013 for around $4 to $5 Million, that seems way more valuable than anything they could get for him. Given what he is and what he could be, I wouldn't deal him for some one who isn't established. Myers might be the next Eric Hosmer or Devn Mesoraco and put up a sub .700 OPS in 2013. Dealing Bailey for that seems pretty darned risky.

If the Reds were a rebuilding team, its a move I'd make, but I don't deal the number three starter from a team meant to contend for a WS title for a question mark. If Bailey is the biggest trade piece on hand (I don't think the Reds have any intention of dealing him), they need to make it count and get somebody with a history of solid production for him. I like Myers a lot, but he's not that guy. I'd happily talk about a package involving Leake, Corcino and Heisey for Myers, but not Bailey.

IslandRed
11-25-2012, 11:00 AM
No. Once you get pitching you hang on to it. Don't believe the garbage that says:"In order to get talent you have to give up talent." That is for teams who who can't seem to make decent trades.

How much legitimate talent has been acquired by teams who leave us scratching our head because they didn't give up anything?

It happens, but it's usually because the team getting the talent is also picking up payroll the other team wants to shed. Outright giveaways of cheap top-shelf talent doesn't happen that often. Prospects and money are just different forms of baseball currency.

dougdirt
11-25-2012, 01:20 PM
Doug, serious question not trying to argue. Last year was Baileys first year with an ERA under 4.5ish, looking at his stats what tells you that 12 wasnt just everything going his way and that 2011 isn't really the real Bailey? His WHIP, HR/9 , SO/9 were all pretty much the same and he still gives up about a hit per inning. If he can keep his ERA in the mid 3's then your right he is more then a #3 but I'm just not convinced that he can.

His FIP and XFIP have been better than his ERA for a while now, in 2012 the ERA finally caught up with his peripherals.

camisadelgolf
11-25-2012, 01:25 PM
His FIP and XFIP have been better than his ERA for a while now, in 2012 the ERA finally caught up with his peripherals.
Some guys consistently outperform their xFIP. Could Bailey be someone who has the opposite going on?

dougdirt
11-25-2012, 01:36 PM
Some guys consistently outperform their xFIP. Could Bailey be someone who has the opposite going on?

Well, given that he outperformed it this year, probably not. There is of course a chance he regresses back to the opposite guy, but there is not really a reason to expect him to.

bellhead
11-25-2012, 09:15 PM
I see what you're saying, but I don't think every team has a true ace. Colorado, San Diego and Houston are examples. In baseball, there are really only 10-15 true aces.

Look where those 3 teams have been over the last 5 years?

REDREAD
11-26-2012, 10:21 AM
If the Reds were a rebuilding team, its a move I'd make, but I don't deal the number three starter from a team meant to contend for a WS title for a question mark. .

Yep, that's exactly why I voted no.

Although I think it creates more question marks.

You trade Homer in that deal, it's a domino effect.
-- Rookie Myers in LF (probable growing pains)
-- Forced to put Chapman in rotation (question mark, plus he's not going to give you 200 IP like Homer can potentially do)
-- Chapman to the rotation means the Reds have to get a closer.. Certianly possible but another question mark.


I think the Reds are not going to get a CF this winter. It will be Stubbs until Billy H comes up. Then we have Fraizer as a question mark as well (he's not likely to OPS 900 again, I hope he can OPS 825, but is that realistic?)
I just remember how much the offense struggled in the beginning of 2012 when Rolen was hurt and Ludwick was stuggling.. I'd really like more proven production in LF than Myers. Even though Myers is highly touted, can we live with his growing pains and contend? If the Royals are willing to take minor leaguers, I'm more interested.. but if I'm trading Homer, I want a player in return that's as sure of a bet to be productive. Homer looks like about as sure of a thing as you're going to get from a pitcher at this point, and he does give the team great bang for the buck.

Vottomatic
11-26-2012, 11:51 AM
Reds tied for third best e.r.a. in mlb. Dominant starting rotation and bullpen. Seems strange that they are considering tinkering with it.

Dan
11-26-2012, 12:03 PM
Reds tied for third best e.r.a. in mlb. Dominant starting rotation and bullpen. Seems strange that they are considering tinkering with it.

In virtually any sport, if you're not adjusting, then you're not doing it right.

AtomicDumpling
11-26-2012, 10:19 PM
Report on Rotoworld says the Royals are asking the Rays for James Shields for Wil Myers. They have asked the Red Sox for Jon Lester. Of course these are rumors. If this is true then the Royals would likely not accept a Myers for Homer Bailey trade offer.

Benihana
11-26-2012, 10:26 PM
Report on Rotoworld says the Royals are asking the Rays for James Shields for Wil Myers. They have asked the Red Sox for Jon Lester. Of course these are rumors. If this is true then the Royals would likely not accept a Myers for Homer Bailey trade offer.

Not sure about the last sentence- that's what the Royals are asking for, not what they have received. Bailey significantly outpitched Lester in 2012 and has significantly less money due to him over the next two years (Shields and Lester both have >$20MM due in next two years). Bailey is also five years younger than Shields and two years younger than Lester, so it is not unreasonable to expect him to be on an opposite trajectory.

I'd offer Leake and Cingrani and see if the Royals counter by asking for Bailey. Not saying I'd do it, but it would certainly be an interesting conversation.

cincrazy
11-26-2012, 10:47 PM
Homer has frustrated the crap out of me. But we've been patient with him, and enjoyed the fruits of that patience last season. He's finally starting to emerge as a reliable, good starter. Those are hard to find, whether he will ever be defined as an "ace" or not. Give me the pitching every time. We trade Bailey, and there's a HUGE hole in the rotation that I doubt we can fill.

Vottomatic
11-26-2012, 10:57 PM
Not sure about the last sentence- that's what the Royals are asking for, not what they have received. Bailey significantly outpitched Lester in 2012 and has significantly less money due to him over the next two years (Shields and Lester both have >$20MM due in next two years). Bailey is also five years younger than Shields and two years younger than Lester, so it is not unreasonable to expect him to be on an opposite trajectory.

I'd offer Leake and Cingrani and see if the Royals counter by asking for Bailey. Not saying I'd do it, but it would certainly be an interesting conversation.

Good reasoning. And I agree. Bailey is younger and cheaper than both Shields and Lester. And he posted better numbers than Lester while pitching in GABP.

I'd consider it, but not sure I'd do it, Bailey straight up for Myers. Hmmm. I'd rather trade Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani.

Vottomatic
11-26-2012, 11:03 PM
Yep, that's exactly why I voted no.

Although I think it creates more question marks.

You trade Homer in that deal, it's a domino effect.
-- Rookie Myers in LF (probable growing pains)
-- Forced to put Chapman in rotation (question mark, plus he's not going to give you 200 IP like Homer can potentially do)
-- Chapman to the rotation means the Reds have to get a closer.. Certianly possible but another question mark.


I think the Reds are not going to get a CF this winter. It will be Stubbs until Billy H comes up. Then we have Fraizer as a question mark as well (he's not likely to OPS 900 again, I hope he can OPS 825, but is that realistic?)
I just remember how much the offense struggled in the beginning of 2012 when Rolen was hurt and Ludwick was stuggling.. I'd really like more proven production in LF than Myers. Even though Myers is highly touted, can we live with his growing pains and contend? If the Royals are willing to take minor leaguers, I'm more interested.. but if I'm trading Homer, I want a player in return that's as sure of a bet to be productive. Homer looks like about as sure of a thing as you're going to get from a pitcher at this point, and he does give the team great bang for the buck.

I keep posting similar remarks, but I like the way you state it. I agree with the dilemma you cite with growing pains with Myers, Chapman's durability as a starter, and then having to find a closer to replace him in the bullpen.

Benihana
11-26-2012, 11:40 PM
How about about a 3 way deal...

CIN sends Leake, Gregorius and Lutz to ARI and Cingrani to KC
ARI sends Bauer to KC
KC sends Myers to CIN

AtomicDumpling
11-27-2012, 04:54 AM
Not sure about the last sentence- that's what the Royals are asking for, not what they have received. Bailey significantly outpitched Lester in 2012 and has significantly less money due to him over the next two years (Shields and Lester both have >$20MM due in next two years). Bailey is also five years younger than Shields and two years younger than Lester, so it is not unreasonable to expect him to be on an opposite trajectory.

I'd offer Leake and Cingrani and see if the Royals counter by asking for Bailey. Not saying I'd do it, but it would certainly be an interesting conversation.

I can maybe buy that regarding Lester but Shields' trade value is without question immensely higher than Homer Bailey's. Lester had a poor year in 2012 but he has a strong record of success in another hitters' park. Wil Myers has much more trade value than Homer Bailey, who is about to get expensive.

Benihana
11-27-2012, 08:52 AM
I can maybe buy that regarding Lester but Shields' trade value is without question immensely higher than Homer Bailey's. Lester had a poor year in 2012 but he has a strong record of success in another hitters' park. Wil Myers has much more trade value than Homer Bailey, who is about to get expensive.

Agree on Shields > Bailey, but the reports I've seen have KC offering Myers and a pitcher for Lester and an OF. Have to think that Bailey and Heisey would be at least as attractive as what they're asking for from Boston.

I think that 3 way with Arizona and KC deserves some thought- not sure who that trade favors, which usually makes for a sound deal. Both KC and ARI have been rumored to be shoppin their top prospects Myers and Bauer, and each team would be getting what they seek (ARI- cheap veteran pitcher + young starting SS + a slugging 1B; KC a future ace who's inexpensive and timeline matches rest of team + another major leafue ready top 100 pitching prospect; Reds get their cleanup hitting LF for the next 6 years).

Myers, Hamilton, Bruce- what an OF to have for the next 6 years. 80 HR/80 SB potential with gold glove defense all around.

Ghosts of 1990
11-27-2012, 09:50 AM
I think Homer Bailey could be a top 15 pitcher in baseball in 2013.

_Sir_Charles_
11-27-2012, 10:55 AM
I think Homer Bailey could be a top 15 pitcher in baseball in 2013.

Seconded.