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View Full Version : Reds Sign Jonathan Broxton- 3 Years, $21m; 4th Year option



mdccclxix
11-26-2012, 03:32 PM
Reds In Serious Talks With Jonathan Broxton
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 26 at 2:30pm CST]

The Reds are in serious talks about a deal for free agent reliever Jonathan Broxton, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter link). The sides are expected to reach a multiyear contract if they agree to a deal.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#HpVO3Mc8JcCtQp5r.99

mdccclxix
11-26-2012, 03:34 PM
I'm guessing 4 years, 38 million, with a 4th year buyout.

mattfeet
11-26-2012, 03:41 PM
I'm guessing 4 years, 38 million, with a 4th year buyout.

Whoa, for real? That seems steep, but all along people have been saying that he's a hot commodity this year. It'd be nice to get him back and hopefully on a decent deal.

-Matt

marcshoe
11-26-2012, 03:41 PM
Wrong thread.

mdccclxix
11-26-2012, 03:43 PM
Whoa, for real? That seems steep, but all along people have been saying that he's a hot commodity this year. It'd be nice to get him back and hopefully on a decent deal.

-Matt

Yeah that's what I'm thinking too, lot's of interest was indicated. He is young still. I'd prefer not to see something like that, though.

RedsManRick
11-26-2012, 03:46 PM
Ken Rosenthal
Sources: Broxton deal with #Reds expected to be for three years.


I'm guessing 3/24: 6/8/10.

mattfeet
11-26-2012, 03:49 PM
Is he worth more than Sean Marshall?

dougdirt
11-26-2012, 03:50 PM
If Broxton the Reds is the one signing the deal, I am on board. If Broxton the Royal is signing the deal, I will pass. Again though, it seems like the Reds are going to be willing to pay an absolute premium for a "closer", something small market teams should never consider.

WildcatFan
11-26-2012, 03:55 PM
I'm guessing 4 years, 38 million, with a 4th year buyout.

That seems like way too much for him. We're not far removed from the Cordero contract, and we know how that worked out.

Brutus
11-26-2012, 03:56 PM
Jon Heyman is reporting at least 3 years. He says if it gets signed, the Reds will likely move Chapman to the rotation.

mattfeet
11-26-2012, 03:57 PM
Jon Heyman is reporting 3 years most likely. He says if it gets signed, the Reds will likely move Chapman to the rotation.

In other news, a sunny sky is blue.

Tom Servo
11-26-2012, 03:58 PM
Not sure how I feel about Broxton the longterm Reds closer.

CySeymour
11-26-2012, 04:03 PM
Not sure how I feel about Broxton the longterm Reds closer.

Don't think I feel real good about paying out big cash for a closer. Just as well to try Hoover there I think.

wolfboy
11-26-2012, 04:14 PM
Don't think I feel real good about paying out big cash for a closer. Just as well to try Hoover there I think.

I'd like to see that as well. Unfortunately, even if it happened, all it would take is a rocky outing or two before he was pulled and labeled as "non-closer material."

Vottomatic
11-26-2012, 04:16 PM
In other news, a sunny sky is blue.

More breaking news: Scientists have discovered and declared that water is wet.

Strikes Out Looking
11-26-2012, 04:18 PM
If the Reds are moving Chapman to the rotation, who are they dealing?

CySeymour
11-26-2012, 04:29 PM
If the Reds are moving Chapman to the rotation, who are they dealing?

Possibly no one. You still need depth.

bucksfan2
11-26-2012, 04:34 PM
Don't think I feel real good about paying out big cash for a closer. Just as well to try Hoover there I think.

Remember when we all thought that Jared Burton was the next closer?

traderumor
11-26-2012, 04:39 PM
If the Reds are moving Chapman to the rotation, who are they dealing?Punt Leake to the pen as backfill is the worst case scenario. He'd be an upgrade to Ondrusek.

CySeymour
11-26-2012, 04:52 PM
Remember when we all thought that Jared Burton was the next closer?

You can't say that about every young reliever. It would be like saying about every promising young hitter that comes up, "remember them saying that about Brandon Larson?"

_Sir_Charles_
11-26-2012, 05:05 PM
That seems like way too much for him. We're not far removed from the Cordero contract, and we know how that worked out.

Yeah we do. 1 poor season IMO. He stabilized the bullpen for the duration of his contract. Sure, he was frustrating at times, but overall he was pretty darned good during his tenure here. I might be in the minority in that though.

_Sir_Charles_
11-26-2012, 05:07 PM
If the Reds are moving Chapman to the rotation, who are they dealing?

Leake to AAA I'd assume. I don't see any of the starters going to the pen. Keeping Mike on a regular schedule should make it easy to bring him up as needed.

RedEye
11-26-2012, 05:09 PM
The best news about this? Chapman --> rotation. The worst news? Less $ to sign him with if he does well. Or to sign anyone else for that matter.

In other news: my heart leapt into my throat when I saw the first few words of the thread title from the home page. "Reds in Serious Talks With..." Can't say "Jonathan Broxton" is what I hoped to see when I clicked on the ORG, but I'm not too upset either.

Benihana
11-26-2012, 06:16 PM
I'd much prefer trying a younger, cheaper option like Hoover or even an existing option like Marshall at closer, but at least this means that Chapman is moving to the rotation.

Sign Broxton and trade Leake and Cingrani for Myers. BOOM!

(I really hope they're not giving Broxton more than $15MM - over any length of time. I just don't think he's worth it.)

RedsManRick
11-26-2012, 06:28 PM
I'd much prefer trying a younger, cheaper option like Hoover or even an existing option like Marshall at closer, but at least this means that Chapman is moving to the rotation.

Sign Broxton and trade Leake and Cingrani for Myers. BOOM!

(I really hope they're not giving Broxton more than $15MM - over any length of time. I just don't think he's worth it.)

I would not be at all surprised to see Leake headed to KC in a Myers deal...

PuffyPig
11-26-2012, 06:46 PM
That seems like way too much for him. We're not far removed from the Cordero contract, and we know how that worked out.


For everything said about Cordero's contract, he had a decent save percentage with us and made our bullpen very strong.

Sure we overpaid for that, but other UFA's weren't lining up to play for us.

And when he left and eventually became Houston's closer he promptly blew consecutive saves to us.

We've had worse deals than Cordero.

edabbs44
11-26-2012, 06:57 PM
If Broxton the Reds is the one signing the deal, I am on board. If Broxton the Royal is signing the deal, I will pass. Again though, it seems like the Reds are going to be willing to pay an absolute premium for a "closer", something small market teams should never consider.

The Reds aren't as "impoverished" as they used to be. And they are good.

Redhook
11-26-2012, 07:15 PM
Color me unimpressed with Braxton overall, but if this signing finally allows Chapman to give it a go at starting, then I'm all aboard.

traderumor
11-26-2012, 07:44 PM
If Broxton the Reds is the one signing the deal, I am on board. If Broxton the Royal is signing the deal, I will pass. Again though, it seems like the Reds are going to be willing to pay an absolute premium for a "closer", something small market teams should never consider.I don't think this is axiomatic. They are paying for a good back of the pen reliever. They gave a very similar contract to Marshall and their 9th inning guy last year has a premium contract. It seems intuitve to me that money allocated to the pen ought to be spent on the guys who are going to pitch the "money" innings, while you try to fill the other spots with young cheap arms. You gotta pay to play, "never pay premium for a closer" sounds like an excuse more than a strategy.

757690
11-26-2012, 07:53 PM
This is because of Baker.

Jocketty with the Cards went into many seasons without a veteran closer. Baker needs a veteran closer, and wants a well defined bullpen with a proven guy in every slot.

dougdirt
11-26-2012, 07:55 PM
I don't think this is axiomatic. They are paying for a good back of the pen reliever. They gave a very similar contract to Marshall and their 9th inning guy last year has a premium contract. It seems intuitve to me that money allocated to the pen ought to be spent on the guys who are going to pitch the "money" innings, while you try to fill the other spots with young cheap arms. You gotta pay to play, "never pay premium for a closer" sounds like an excuse more than a strategy.

Almost all very good relievers can close. Guys who have a double digit number in the saves column tend to be paid more, even if they aren't better pitchers. That is bad business.

edabbs44
11-26-2012, 07:56 PM
This is because of Baker.

Jocketty with the Cards went into many seasons without a veteran closer. Baker needs a veteran closer, and wants a well defined bullpen with a proven guy in every slot.

Except for that guy Isringhausen. Other than that, I have no concerns with this post.

traderumor
11-26-2012, 07:59 PM
Almost all very good relievers can close. Guys who have a double digit number in the saves column tend to be paid more, even if they aren't better pitchers. That is bad business.Begs the question. I think the more clear category for discussion is "late innings reliever" versus "closer." Broxton is being paid as a late innings reliever, and I don't hear much quibbling about the contract, just if he is of the right quality. Your argument is dated, rote and one size fits all. I don't think its wise to be that dogmatic about a clear debatable and in a cyclical business.

corkedbat
11-26-2012, 08:10 PM
More breaking news: Scientists have discovered and declared that water is wet.

Unless it is dehydrated.

corkedbat
11-26-2012, 08:26 PM
I would not be at all surprised to see Leake headed to KC in a Myers deal...

I'd be down with that. Leake (+) for Myers, sign Broxton, move Chapman to the rotation and maybe sign Victorino to a deal of three years (2 + option) bridge to Hamilton = solid offseason.

CF Shane Victorino
2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
LF Will Myers
RF Jay Bruce
3B Todd Frazier
SS Zach Cozart
CA Ryan Hanigan

SirFelixCat
11-26-2012, 08:31 PM
Just heard about this.


My first thought was, "Well, this confirms that Aroldis is a starter! Yay!"

Next thought was, "Hmmm...while I'm actually in favor of this, I just hope it's not for a lot of money...if it is, I'd rather see Hoover given a shot".

Still, I see this as a good thing. I really trust Walt and his decisions.

Roy Tucker
11-26-2012, 08:32 PM
Prediction for 2013 if they sing Broxton....

I'll complain about 60 times about how dang slow Broxton works. Jeez, the guy drives me nuts.

gilpdawg
11-26-2012, 08:35 PM
I would not be at all surprised to see Leake headed to KC in a Myers deal...

I don't see them moving Myers. Unless its for Jay Bruce or something.

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD

edabbs44
11-26-2012, 08:41 PM
Unless it is dehydrated.

Or frozen?

SirFelixCat
11-26-2012, 08:57 PM
Speaking of Myers...Royals in talks w/ Boston for Lester or TB for Shields.

marcshoe
11-26-2012, 09:17 PM
Prediction for 2013 if they sing Broxton....

I'll complain about 60 times about how dang slow Broxton works. Jeez, the guy drives me nuts.

If you sing your complaints, the whole thing will go well. Sort of a call and response.

mattfeet
11-26-2012, 09:18 PM
Just talked to Broxton's agent. Wouldn't say it's a done deal. Said they had substantial talks. Could come together quickly. #reds

^John Fay

Edd Roush
11-26-2012, 09:35 PM
Here is a fangraphs take on this situation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jonathan-broxton-means-changes-in-store-for-aroldis-chapman/

Vottomatic
11-26-2012, 09:42 PM
I complained about Cordero, nonstop it seemed. But in the end, he was pretty good, all things considered. And give him credit........sure he got paid, but he was willing to sign with the Reds and pitch in HR happy GABP.

After Chapman's historic season of closing, anyone else is doomed by the fans at trying to close games.

I see the starting rotation and bullpen taking a step backward next season. If it ain't broken, don't fix it. Unfortunately, the offense is slightly broken, and the Reds are going to sacrifice pitching to fix the offense.

Superdude
11-26-2012, 10:06 PM
Here is a fangraphs take on this situation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jonathan-broxton-means-changes-in-store-for-aroldis-chapman/

What I learned form that article: Broxton is 28! I seriously just assumed he was like 33 at this point. I'll probably cringe at this Broxton contract, but if it means Aroldis Chapman finally getting a shot at starting in 2013, pay the man whatever it takes.

PuffyPig
11-26-2012, 10:08 PM
I complained about Cordero, nonstop it seemed. But in the end, he was pretty good, all things considered. And give him credit........sure he got paid, but he was willing to sign with the Reds and pitch in HR happy GABP.

After Chapman's historic season of closing, anyone else is doomed by the fans at trying to close games.



In 4 years of closing, Cordero saved 86.2% of his games, amassing 150 saves.

Chapman was at about 88% last year. In his career, if you include his holds as saves, he's still about 88%.

cincrazy
11-26-2012, 10:30 PM
I'm not nearly as optimistic about the "Chapman to the rotation" move as many on here are. I don't dislike the idea of having Broxton. But I dislike the idea of paying Broxton closer money and locking him into a closer's role. What if Chapman flops as a starter? I'd want him closing. And Broxton would be an especially pricey 8th inning guy. I would rather keep Chapman at closer and look for a starter via other means.

M2
11-26-2012, 10:35 PM
I'm guessing 3/24: 6/8/10.

Sounds about right. That would put him in the same neighborhood as the contract Brandon League just signed with the Dodgers.

The obvious concern is paying that much money to a guy who's that fat. Are his knees, ankles and back up to the contract?

Benihana
11-26-2012, 10:37 PM
I would almost always prefer 1 or 2 year deals for closers. Including the Cordero deal, you can probably count on one hand the number of eight figure LTC for FA closers that have worked out well in the last several years.

Francisco Rodriguez, Heath Bell and Jose Valverde say hi.

cincrazy
11-26-2012, 10:45 PM
Sounds about right. That would put him in the same neighborhood as the contract Brandon League just signed with the Dodgers.

The obvious concern is paying that much money to a guy who's that fat. Are his knees, ankles and back up to the contract?

He's not fat! Just big boned ;).

Vottomatic
11-26-2012, 10:48 PM
I'm not nearly as optimistic about the "Chapman to the rotation" move as many on here are. I don't dislike the idea of having Broxton. But I dislike the idea of paying Broxton closer money and locking him into a closer's role. What if Chapman flops as a starter? I'd want him closing. And Broxton would be an especially pricey 8th inning guy. I would rather keep Chapman at closer and look for a starter via other means.

Yeah. I'm kinda of concerned about tinkering with the pitching. I mean, we had four starters with sub-4.00 e.r.a.'s. We had one of the top bullpens in all of baseball even with Madson, Masset, and Bray going down with injuries.

If the goal is to upgrade for Leake, why not find a team that is interested in obtaining young pitching under control and unloading a quality but pricey veteran, such as Shields? I know the Rays seriously coveted Mez last season and the Reds weren't willing to deal. Why not Leake, Mez, and a middling prospect for Shields? Then keep Chappy at Closer, sign Broxton, and try and get Madson back on an incentive deal. The bullpen remains stout, possibly better, and the rotation is improved after already being pretty studly to begin with.

The biggest problem is overall payroll. I get that.

I just worry that Chapman in the rotation isn't going to work out. And then the experiment will have seriously messed up everyone's roles, including some guys getting traded away.

M2
11-26-2012, 10:54 PM
He's not fat! Just big boned ;).

Seems like he's both. Broxton could become the first pitcher to come out to the mound on a Segue.

Tom Servo
11-26-2012, 10:58 PM
I'm not nearly as optimistic about the "Chapman to the rotation" move as many on here are.
An Aroldis Chapman in bullpen is safe but that's not what Chapmans are built for.

mth123
11-27-2012, 03:07 AM
Put me down for liking this a lot more than guaranteeing money to one of the injured guys (Madson, Soria, Wilson, etc.). Broxton will be in his second season removed from arm surgery and I'd expect improvement from what he was in 2012. I'm also guessing that Broxton is getting an extra year in exchange for a lower salary in 2013. After 2013, the Reds would seem to have a lot more room in the budget. Votto's salary drops back down, Arroyo and Masset come off the books, and the national TV money should kick in to a $20 Million plus increase in revenue. The Reds would seem to be close to maxed out in 2013 with room in later years. I'd guess that will require longer deals, with options with significant buy-outs that serve as little more than a way to defer 2013 money into future seasons, for the Reds to compete for Free Agents under their current payroll situation.

I'd like to see the particulars of the deal, but I like the idea of Broxton as compared to a number of the alternatives that have been linked to the Reds. The end of the deal may not look so good once its revealed, but we need to keep in mind that is likely due to the budget crunch in 2013.

cumberlandreds
11-27-2012, 07:45 AM
What I learned form that article: Broxton is 28! I seriously just assumed he was like 33 at this point. I'll probably cringe at this Broxton contract, but if it means Aroldis Chapman finally getting a shot at starting in 2013, pay the man whatever it takes.

I'm the same way. I thought he was in his early 30's. This sounds better knowing that. The Reds need to give Chapman a serious look in the rotation. He has the potential to be another Randy Johnson. Worst case scenario is that Chapman fails in the rotation and goes back to being closer where we know he excelled.
Broxton isn't quite the lights out closer Chapman was for most of last season but he's not a bad alternative. I think he will be just fine. There will be a few more "Cordero" like moments from him than we got from Chapman. Also Hoover could get some opportunities to close and grow into that position. Really, I think this signing is a win-win all the way around. These are good days to be a Reds fan. :)

WildcatFan
11-27-2012, 09:13 AM
In 4 years of closing, Cordero saved 86.2% of his games, amassing 150 saves.

Chapman was at about 88% last year. In his career, if you include his holds as saves, he's still about 88%.

Cordero $12.5m/year
Chapman $3.5m/year

It's not so much about effectiveness as it is spending a tenth of your payroll (or in Cordero's case, more) on a relatively low-priority position. Cincinnati would be fine without Broxton. Maybe the pen takes a step back, but it's still league average or above. I have full confidence Marshall or Hoover could reach an 85% save rate, and you have $8m to spend on scoring some more runs.

REDREAD
11-27-2012, 09:40 AM
That seems like way too much for him. We're not far removed from the Cordero contract, and we know how that worked out.

That's a fair point, but I think Cordero was something like 4 years, 48 million?
(Or in that ballpark) Cordero was also older and a candidate for a decline.

Broxton is only 28, and really looked great as a Red.

The Reds are going to have to add a reliever in order to move Chapman to the rotation. Even if they wanted Hoover to close, they'd still need to add at least one more reliever. Why not get arguably the best FA reliever available (as opposed to trying to get lucky with a rehab or waiver wire pickup).. I trust Walt will not overpay. He's no dummy and is not going to cripple the team. I think the Reds have more money that we think they do.

In hindsight, Cordero was overpaid but he did a great job stabilizing the bullpen. It's a valid criticism that the Reds went one year (or maybe two years) too long on him.

WildcatFan
11-27-2012, 09:48 AM
That's a fair point, but I think Cordero was something like 4 years, 48 million?
(Or in that ballpark) Cordero was also older and a candidate for a decline.

Broxton is only 28, and really looked great as a Red.

The Reds are going to have to add a reliever in order to move Chapman to the rotation. Even if they wanted Hoover to close, they'd still need to add at least one more reliever. Why not get arguably the best FA reliever available (as opposed to trying to get lucky with a rehab or waiver wire pickup).. I trust Walt will not overpay. He's no dummy and is not going to cripple the team. I think the Reds have more money that we think they do.

In hindsight, Cordero was overpaid but he did a great job stabilizing the bullpen. It's a valid criticism that the Reds went one year (or maybe two years) too long on him.

I can get on board with this point.

My gripe with Cordero was the money, not the years. And you're right that he was due for a decline, and I'm reading similar stuff on Broxton, with his dipping velocity and K rates. But if they can keep it under something like 3/22, I'll tip my cap and trust it'll work out.

RedlegJake
11-27-2012, 10:00 AM
The single infallible corollary of baseball, to me, is "You can never have enough good pitching" I'll not fault putting resources into more pitching. Ever. And I believe its easier to adaaddress offense by trade FA or resurgence cheaply than pitching. The Reds need pitching. Chapman may fail? OH MY. Then lets by all means just play it safe and never try and see what Aroldis in the


R rotation might mean. Forget he could succeed because he migjt fail! Heck it is scary but you win thinkng big and taking your shot.

.

Kc61
11-27-2012, 10:35 AM
I'm not nearly as optimistic about the "Chapman to the rotation" move as many on here are. I don't dislike the idea of having Broxton. But I dislike the idea of paying Broxton closer money and locking him into a closer's role. What if Chapman flops as a starter? I'd want him closing. And Broxton would be an especially pricey 8th inning guy. I would rather keep Chapman at closer and look for a starter via other means.

I differ with this post because I would give Chapman some time to convert to starting. He has such a great arm, I think it's worth a try, it's an experiment with very high upside.

But I am sympathetic to cincrazy's point.

Brox has a history of elbow and shoulder injury, and he's more hittable than Chappy (who isn't?). I don't view him as a sure thing at closer. Hoover looks like a closer, he can be the backup, but I think Brox is something of a gamble at major dollars.

As is well known around here, I worry about bullpens. The Reds pen has good depth, but without Chapman I worry that they lack the lights out guy. Brox doesn't solve that problem for me.

I guess the thing to do is wait for the off-season to end and see what the staff looks like then. Plenty of time to complain. Maybe they will add still another good bullpen arm in their deals.

REDREAD
11-27-2012, 10:46 AM
I can get on board with this point.

My gripe with Cordero was the money, not the years. And you're right that he was due for a decline, and I'm reading similar stuff on Broxton, with his dipping velocity and K rates. But if they can keep it under something like 3/22, I'll tip my cap and trust it'll work out.

I agree, Cordero was overpaid. No question about it. At least he did the job though most of the time.

Like Mth said, I'd much rather spend money on Broxton than an injury rehab guy like Madson.. The analogy is kind of like Cordero worked out a lot better than Stanton did. Cordero was a lot more expensive, but at least he produced reasonably well. Stanton had negative value.

mdccclxix
11-27-2012, 11:01 AM
I don't like overspending on closers and wish they had a plan to use a Cingrani or Corcino level prospect to step in. I suppose that's something a building team could try as opposed to an already built to win team. I've always liked LeCure for closer, personally. I happened to miss many of Hoover's appearances last year, but never was completely impressed. LeCure has that backdoor fastball that is about all you need.

Benihana
11-27-2012, 11:04 AM
I don't like overspending on closers and wish they had a plan to use a Cingrani or Corcino level prospect to step in. I suppose that's something a building team could try as opposed to an already built to win team. I've always liked LeCure for closer, personally. I happened to miss many of Hoover's appearances last year, but never was completely impressed. LeCure has that backdoor fastball that is about all you need.

I agree with this- especially when they already have Marshall to step in if one of the unproven guys fail.

I'd try:
1. Hoover
2. LeCure
3. Marshall

In that order. I also wouldn't rule out Cingrani, especially if Chapman is ticketed for the rotation. But oh well, seems like Mr. Broxton is coming back to town.

traderumor
11-27-2012, 11:22 AM
I was under the impression that Cingrani is pegged as a starter. Plus, I didn't see anything in his arsenal that looked like back of the bullpen material, not sure what I'm missing there.

The young guns names always get thrown around until they are the only answer. Then, when they fall on their face, the cry goes out for "established arms." I know, I know, anyone can get three guys out in the late innings, right? So much silliness, and tunes change as soon as games start and a couple of leads get blown late.

Benihana
11-27-2012, 11:32 AM
I was under the impression that Cingrani is pegged as a starter. Plus, I didn't see anything in his arsenal that looked like back of the bullpen material, not sure what I'm missing there.

The young guns names always get thrown around until they are the only answer. Then, when they fall on their face, the cry goes out for "established arms." I know, I know, anyone can get three guys out in the late innings, right? So much silliness, and tunes change as soon as games start and a couple of leads get blown late.

Cingrani has a plus fastball but not a ton in the way of secondary pitches. That usually leads most to conclude he could/should wind up at the back of a bullpen.

Yes they are currently using him as a starter, but many scouts have stated his future is in the 'pen. Moving Chapman to the rotation could allow for Cingrani to go back to where he was used in college.

That said, if the Reds plan on bringing in a FA to close, I would keep Cingrani as a starter until he shows he cannot handle it.

Chip R
11-27-2012, 11:37 AM
I suppose this is business as usual but I think a 3 year deal is really overkill with Broxton and I like Broxton. He's going to have a very tough act to follow. Whenever someone gets on against him on a bleeder up the middle or an error or a Texas Leaguer, fans are going to complain that he isn't as dominant as Chapman. I suppose if someone like Hoover gets a chance to close and is successful, Broxton could be traded to someone looking for a closer down the stretch.

Reds/Flyers Fan
11-27-2012, 11:45 AM
Mariano Rivera is a free agent. :p

Kc61
11-27-2012, 11:47 AM
I don't like overspending on closers and wish they had a plan to use a Cingrani or Corcino level prospect to step in. I suppose that's something a building team could try as opposed to an already built to win team. I've always liked LeCure for closer, personally. I happened to miss many of Hoover's appearances last year, but never was completely impressed. LeCure has that backdoor fastball that is about all you need.

I don't think Lecure should close. For one thing, he's a pretty fragile pitcher. He misses time almost every year, he did in the minors too. His highest appearance total in MLB is 48 games. Not sure he can handle the rigors of pitching an additional 20 games per season, with all the back-to-backs required of a closer.

Also, Sam's forte is his ability to work multiple innings. He's a former starter. In 2011 he threw 77.2 innings in 43 games. Last year, he threw 57.1 innings in 48 games.

The Reds did use Lecure in the playoffs and I can see him getting more set up work. Just don't see him as a closer.

Hoover looks more like a closer to me. Misses bats, has a background closing in the minors. He does have a history of throwing a lot of fly balls. I'd like to see him get another year of non-closing experience in the big leagues before giving him the ninth inning. He's the in-house candidate IMO.

marcshoe
11-27-2012, 12:25 PM
I would think that a three year contract would be offered with the assumption that you won't get value the third year. Sometimes you need to, as Ben Folds might say, do it anyway.

You need multiple back-end arms. I like Hoover, but you honestly don't know yet. Broxton's value isn't just in what he will do, but also in what he will help turn the bullpen into. I want to see a bullpen without a pitcher or two who will make you cringe when they come into a game. Resigning Broxton is a big step in that direction.

PuffyPig
11-27-2012, 12:56 PM
I would think that a three year contract would be offered with the assumption that you won't get value the third year. Sometimes you need to, as Ben Folds might say, do it anyway.




Broxton is 28. When 3 years is up, he'll still be younger than Cordero was when his contract started with us (he was 33). There is no rerason to think Broxton will regress that quickly.

MikeThierry
11-27-2012, 01:00 PM
Broxton is 28. When 3 years is up, he'll still be younger than Cordero was when his contract started with us (he was 33). There is no rerason to think Broxton will regress that quickly.

That's amazing. It seems like Broxton's been in the league for ages. I forgot he was only 28 years old.

marcshoe
11-27-2012, 01:53 PM
Broxton is 28. When 3 years is up, he'll still be younger than Cordero was when his contract started with us (he was 33). There is no rerason to think Broxton will regress that quickly.

I don't so much think he'll regress as possibly wear out. Closing can be hard on guys arms, it seems. Particularly for a big guy.

Blitz Dorsey
11-27-2012, 03:35 PM
A lot of people are assuming the Reds are going to grossly overpay for Broxton. I don't think they will. As was previously mentioned, I think we're looking at something like 3-years, $24 million at the very max. That's very affordable. They paid a closer that didn't even pitch $8.5 million last year.

Also, this would allow the Reds to move Chapman to the rotation, which has been the dream of many people on this board. The Reds are not going to move Chapman to the rotation for JJ Hoover (and I love JJ Hoover). The only way they move Chapman is if they think they have a long-term solution at closer. So, if Broxton signs, all the members of the "Chapman Needs To Be Starting" crowd should be elated.

Benihana
11-27-2012, 04:07 PM
A lot of people are assuming the Reds are going to grossly overpay for Broxton. I don't think they will. As was previously mentioned, I think we're looking at something like 3-years, $24 million at the very max. That's very affordable. They paid a closer that didn't even pitch $8.5 million last year.

Also, this would allow the Reds to move Chapman to the rotation, which has been the dream of many people on this board. The Reds are not going to move Chapman to the rotation for JJ Hoover (and I love JJ Hoover). The only way they move Chapman is if they think they have a long-term solution at closer. So, if Broxton signs, all the members of the "Chapman Needs To Be Starting" crowd should be elated.

Don't necessarily disagree, although I'll point out that part of the griping relates to the fact that we're already paying Marshall $5-$6MM/year at the back-end of the pen, so in essence we'll be committing probably $14MM/year for the next three years to the last two bullpen spots, when we have some young guys like Hoover, LeCure, et al who could possibly handle it a lot less expensively.

Personally, I'd rather spend $14MM/year on a cleanup-hitting LF and let the youngsters handle the 'pen, but that's just me. I am happy about seeing Chapman get his chance to start, so I'm not complaining too much.

And I'm also not convinced the Reds won't "find money" elsewhere to pay for one more hitter. I think there is more money to spend than some people think. Of course only time will tell.

cincrazy
11-27-2012, 04:41 PM
I differ with this post because I would give Chapman some time to convert to starting. He has such a great arm, I think it's worth a try, it's an experiment with very high upside.

But I am sympathetic to cincrazy's point.

Brox has a history of elbow and shoulder injury, and he's more hittable than Chappy (who isn't?). I don't view him as a sure thing at closer. Hoover looks like a closer, he can be the backup, but I think Brox is something of a gamble at major dollars.

As is well known around here, I worry about bullpens. The Reds pen has good depth, but without Chapman I worry that they lack the lights out guy. Brox doesn't solve that problem for me.

I guess the thing to do is wait for the off-season to end and see what the staff looks like then. Plenty of time to complain. Maybe they will add still another good bullpen arm in their deals.

I'm not saying I wouldn't give Chapman a shot to start. I think he's earned that right. But there's no guarantee it will work out. I'd rather use Marshall at closer, or Hoover, or whomever, until we KNOW for sure whether Chapman can make the conversion to starting. Once we know that, ok, do what you need to do to address the back of the pen. But filling the back of the pen before knowing whether Chapman can make the transition.... I worry about that. He's incredibly valuable out of the pen. Will he be just as valuable out of the rotation? I hope so. Time will well.

His velocity problems concern me. His shoulder concerns me. A lot about this move to the rotation concerns me. He needs to maintain his velocity. He needs to develop another pitch preferably. I don't think it will be a seamless transition, and we'll see if Dusty's patient with him.

M2
11-27-2012, 06:04 PM
My take is that if they're going to spend money on an effective pitcher, I can make peace with that. Plus this perhaps paves the way for Chapman in the rotation, where he perhaps might be awesome. I like awesome.

Also, like Benihana, I suspect the Reds still might have plenty of cash to go after a bat or two.

Matt700wlw
11-27-2012, 07:12 PM
They aren't going to let Chapman go to the rotation without a proven closer. Broxton is a proven closer. They aren't going to do it if it breaks the budget and prohibits them from addressing other needs...

I know when they signed Marshall, the thought was he could be the closer of the future, but he thrives in the setup role, and that's proven.

The Reds have been smart in recent years. I trust them to continue that trend. It's nice to say that.

REDREAD
11-28-2012, 12:21 AM
I'm just wondering.. not calling anyone out.. but of all the FA relievers available, is there really anyone better than Broxton out there? There might be a guy or two that I'm not thinking of, but giving the best reliever on the market a 3 year deal when he's only 28 .. the downside seems pretty minimal, barring injury.

I think we're all conditioned into having to patch a pitching staff together based on reclamation projects, inviting 6 relievers to spring training and hoping 2 will be effective.. It's kind of nice to lock down guys like Marshall and Broxton. Sure we got guys like Hoover and LeCure, but there's plenty of important middle innings for them to pitch over the course of the season.

Going into the offseason, we needed at least one more proven reliever and a 3b/LF.. Might as well sign Broxton and check one task off the list (as opposed to the risk of having to trade prospects later to patch the bullpen)

WildcatFan
11-28-2012, 01:19 AM
Heyman says it's a done deal. No terms, but he says "at least three years." Maybe Brox was more concerned with years than salary.


@JonHeymanCBS: Broxton, Reds in agreement on new deal. announcement expected Wednesday. http://t.co/lzwWpynx

Kc61
11-28-2012, 01:49 AM
So. Chapman to the rotation. Redmond signed as a backup, he's a starter. This Broxton signing could open the door to some moves.

A trade by the Reds of a starting pitcher is likely to come down soon, I'd guess. Maybe already agreed upon.

Leake is the obvious candidate. I guess Arroyo could go in a cost cutting move. But I'd guess Leake.

I'm guessing the Reds will now be fairly active at the Winter Meetings next week.

MrRedLegger
11-28-2012, 01:52 AM
I'm happy. Broxton may (or may not) be a little expensive, but just like after buying anything for a good chunk of change, after time and many uses you forget about the price tag and really appreciate what you have. Barring blown saves.

lollipopcurve
11-28-2012, 07:22 AM
Makes sense to me. Broxton is still young and may still have some recovery left from his TJ surgery. If so, he could become dominant again. And it's definitely time to see if Chapman can become a big league starter.

It'll be interesting now to see if they sacrifice talent for a leadoff guy with Hamilton on the doorstep. I'd rather see them bring in Willingham (or some other legit 4-hole hitter), but would not be surprised if they dealt for Coco Crisp.

Matt700wlw
11-28-2012, 08:39 AM
3 for $21M

Option for 2016.

WildcatFan
11-28-2012, 08:42 AM
3 for $21M

Option for 2016.

I wanted three and less than $22m. I'll take it. Welcome back, big man.

WildcatFan
11-28-2012, 08:51 AM
Per Rosenthal:


Salaries of $4M-$7M-$9M, with $1M buyout on $9M option.

klw
11-28-2012, 08:55 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/reds-jonathan-broxton-agree-to-deal.html


WEDNESDAY, 7:35am: The three-year deal is worth $21MM, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). The deal will pay Broxton $4MM in 2013, $7MM in 2014 and $9MM in 2015. It also includes a $9MM club option for 2016 with a $1MM buyout. If the Reds trade Broxton, the guarantee grows to $22MM, with the 2016 option becoming a mutual option with a $2MM buyout.

Caveman Techie
11-28-2012, 09:00 AM
Great deal for the Reds (assuming Broxton doesn't fall off a cliff). Reds pitching next year could be the best in the league.

Chip R
11-28-2012, 09:02 AM
I'd certainly like to see Broxton show up to ST in "the best shape of his life."

RedlegJake
11-28-2012, 09:03 AM
I'd certainly like to see Broxton show up to ST in "the best shape of his life."

LOL. Classic T-I-C line!

CySeymour
11-28-2012, 09:25 AM
3 for $21M

Option for 2016.

A reasonable amount. The years are longer then I had hoped, but I will take it for a smaller yearly salary.

redsfan30
11-28-2012, 09:31 AM
I don't hate the move, but I don't love it either. I am nervous about Chapman to the rotation and I am nervous of Broxton staying healthy.

I know it's a minority opinion but I would much prefer to leave Chapman alone in the 9th inning for the next 5 years.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 09:42 AM
Here's something I hadn't thought of.

With Bray gone and Chapman to the rotation, the bullpen is overwhelmingly righty.

Marshall is the only lefty in the bullpen.

Cingrani is one answer. More likely IMO is the Reds will acquire a lefty set up type this off-season.

Arredondo, Lecure, Simon, Redmond, Broxton, Hoover, Masset, all right handed.

Something needs to change.

Dan
11-28-2012, 09:46 AM
Here's something I hadn't thought of.

With Bray gone and Chapman to the rotation, the bullpen is overwhelmingly righty.

Marshall is the only lefty in the bullpen.

Cingrani is one answer. More likely IMO is the Reds will acquire a lefty set up type this off-season.

Arredondo, Lecure, Simon, Redmond, Broxton, Hoover, Masset, all right handed.

Something needs to change.

Arredondo is a lefty killer. And Cingrani was expected to move to the pen when he got to the majors. He's there. I'm good with how the pen is right now. Look for Leake or Bailey (or maybe Arroyo?) to be moved at the winter meetings.

I don't think selling high on Cueto is out of the question either if the return is great enough.

REDREAD
11-28-2012, 09:47 AM
I'm very happy with this contract.
It's really nice that it's only costing us 4 million next year too.
That should allow for plenty of room to fill in LF.

KC, I bet a LH reliever is on the shopping list as well.

traderumor
11-28-2012, 09:57 AM
I don't hate the move, but I don't love it either. I am nervous about Chapman to the rotation and I am nervous of Broxton staying healthy.

I know it's a minority opinion but I would much prefer to leave Chapman alone in the 9th inning for the next 5 years.Those are inherent risks, which by definition are a part of the business and there isn't anything you can do about them. While you can take steps to insure against inherent risks with depth, they should not prevent you from taking the risk in the first place. Sure, its a risk that Chapman might not be effective in the rotation. But there's also the reward that makes the risk worthwhile. It was right to be "nervous" about Chapman being signed in the first place. Now, the risk was taken, and the reward is being realized, first as a setup reliever in pennant race, then as a closer in another playoff run, perhaps this year the reward for the risk is a nasty rotation that's even better than last year.

To maximize an investment, a risk will usually have to be taken at some point. With Broxton's injury risk, I'm sure you are referring to his large body. Ryan Madson is skinny as a rail and he was injured. Pitchers are ALWAYS an injury risk. Let's not spend money on any of them--also known as The Jim Bowden Theory on Pitching Staffs.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 10:01 AM
Arredondo is a lefty killer. And Cingrani was expected to move to the pen when he got to the majors. He's there. I'm good with how the pen is right now. Look for Leake or Bailey (or maybe Arroyo?) to be moved at the winter meetings.

I don't think selling high on Cueto is out of the question either if the return is great enough.

Thankfully, the Reds don't subscribe to the "bullpen will take care of itself" philosophy. You could be right, but I fully expect a lefty reliever to be acquired.

Arredondo was quite poor in the second half. Not sure he will be with the club next year, and if he is he has a lot to prove.

I still like Cingrani as a starter in AAA. If the Reds hold onto Arroyo this season, they will have room for a young starter in 2014. I'd give Cingrani a chance to get ready as a starter at AAA, before possibly converting him to the pen.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 10:05 AM
Those are inherent risks, which by definition are a part of the business and there isn't anything you can do about them. While you can take steps to insure against inherent risks with depth, they should not prevent you from taking the risk in the first place. Sure, its a risk that Chapman might not be effective in the rotation. But there's also the reward that makes the risk worthwhile. It was right to be "nervous" about Chapman being signed in the first place. Now, the risk was taken, and the reward is being realized, first as a setup reliever in pennant race, then as a closer in another playoff run, perhaps this year the reward for the risk is a nasty rotation that's even better than last year.

To maximize an investment, a risk will usually have to be taken at some point. With Broxton's injury risk, I'm sure you are referring to his large body. Ryan Madson is skinny as a rail and he was injured. Pitchers are ALWAYS an injury risk. Let's not spend money on any of them--also known as The Jim Bowden Theory on Pitching Staffs.

Brox is an injury risk.

But the injury he had in 2011 could also be a plus.

It might be that JB wasn't quite ready last year after the injured 2011. Maybe another year off the injury list will make him stronger and better.

He was better late in the season when the Royals traded him to the Reds. Maybe after a winter off he will be even better.

mattfeet
11-28-2012, 10:06 AM
Hard to not like this deal, IMO. Barring an injury, this isn't a bad signing AT ALL, especially considering the influx of money that MLB is about to see and the way contracts are trending. $7MM AAV isn't a lot of money anymore.

I(heart)Freel
11-28-2012, 10:07 AM
If Chappie somehow falls on his face as a starter, there's nothing that says he can't be put back in the 'pen to make it the force it was last season.

But if he succeeds as a starter... whoa mama.

PS Mario Soto is on a plane to wherever Chapman is right now, continuing the jedi change-up training.

mattfeet
11-28-2012, 10:11 AM
Look at it this way...Jonny Gomes just got a 2yr/$10MM contract. I'd MUCH rather have Broxton for only $2MM AAV more per year. This is a good signing.

LegallyMinded
11-28-2012, 10:24 AM
3 for 21M seems like a pretty good deal for the Reds. As recently as 2011, they were paying Francisco Cordero 12M a year to (try to) close out games. Getting Broxton for barely half that seems like a steal.

traderumor
11-28-2012, 10:33 AM
Brox is an injury risk.

But the injury he had in 2011 could also be a plus.

It might be that JB wasn't quite ready last year after the injured 2011. Maybe another year off the injury list will make him stronger and better.

He was better late in the season when the Royals traded him to the Reds. Maybe after a winter off he will be even better.But is it a higher injury risk? What, because he's carrying 50-70 extra pounds? I think he has the same risk as any pitcher, which means its an inherent risk and not worth mentioning as a downside factor of the signing.

osuceltic
11-28-2012, 10:36 AM
Arredondo is a lefty killer. And Cingrani was expected to move to the pen when he got to the majors. He's there. I'm good with how the pen is right now. Look for Leake or Bailey (or maybe Arroyo?) to be moved at the winter meetings.

I don't think selling high on Cueto is out of the question either if the return is great enough.

I just don't see how they can afford to trade a starter unless they're adding another starter via trade or free agency. Not only is it unrealistic to expect everyone to stay healthy, it's crazy to think Chapman can go from closer to much more than 150 innings next season. They need rotation depth more than ever.

bucksfan2
11-28-2012, 10:43 AM
I like the deal. I am a proponent of good to great bull pens. You get as many good live arms as you can and your going to win a lot of games. Its a sea change from the days of David Weathers at the closer and picking up Estaban Yan off the scrap heap to help out the pen.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 10:44 AM
But is it a higher injury risk? What, because he's carrying 50-70 extra pounds? I think he has the same risk as any pitcher, which means its an inherent risk and not worth mentioning as a downside factor of the signing.

Brox had serious elbow/shoulder problems in 2011 with the Dodgers. I don't know what that means for the future, but it is something worth mentioning as a potential issue with the signing.

A good signing, but there is an injury risk, possibly more than the average pitcher I'd guess.

REDREAD
11-28-2012, 10:46 AM
Look at it this way...Jonny Gomes just got a 2yr/$10MM contract. I'd MUCH rather have Broxton for only $2MM AAV more per year. This is a good signing.

Wow, I had to look up Gomes signing, because I hadn't heard that and that just stunned me.
I guess the Red Sox still don't know how to spend money effectively in FA?
I'm very happy for Gomes, he seems like a nice guy, but why give 2 years/10 million to a guy that was basically spring training invitee for the last 3-4 years?
Kind of reeks of a team that has a lot of cash to spend but is desperate..

mdccclxix
11-28-2012, 10:54 AM
I'm very surprised by the value the Reds got on this deal, as you can see by my prediction. I think the biggest plus is just 4 million for this year's salary, which may allow for Ludwick to sign.

mdccclxix
11-28-2012, 10:58 AM
This also adds value to the trade from the Reds' standpoint, as they didn't have to work as hard to sign a guy that was acquainted already. They should also know his health status quite well as a result.

Caveman Techie
11-28-2012, 11:10 AM
I just don't see how they can afford to trade a starter unless they're adding another starter via trade or free agency. Not only is it unrealistic to expect everyone to stay healthy, it's crazy to think Chapman can go from closer to much more than 150 innings next season. They need rotation depth more than ever.

Possible rotation for 2013:

Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Chapman
Arroyo
Leake
Lecure
Redmon
Cingrani
Hoover

Granted that the last two are not very likely, but they are still options. I think for once the Reds have a surplus of starting pitchers, and it would be fine to trade one of them to fill another hole on the team.

traderumor
11-28-2012, 11:24 AM
Brox had serious elbow/shoulder problems in 2011 with the Dodgers. I don't know what that means for the future, but it is something worth mentioning as a potential issue with the signing.

A good signing, but there is an injury risk, possibly more than the average pitcher I'd guess.That's my point, he's probably a lower injury risk because he has had recent surgery on his arm. That is why I consider his injury risk no more than inherent and not worthy of triggering anxiety.

M2
11-28-2012, 11:35 AM
But is it a higher injury risk? What, because he's carrying 50-70 extra pounds? I think he has the same risk as any pitcher, which means its an inherent risk and not worth mentioning as a downside factor of the signing.

I don't worry about his arm per se, but that extra weight puts a lot of stress on your joints and back. Pitchers do a lot of work with their legs and trunk.

I like the deal, mainly because the Reds got a long look at Broxton in 2012 and clearly liked what they saw. They have demonstrated a fairly keen eye for bullpen talent in recent years. I trust their judgment. Yet, if it goes wrong at some point, it's likely because his frame is breaking down under a 300+ pound load.

mdccclxix
11-28-2012, 11:46 AM
I don't worry about his arm per se, but that extra weight puts a lot of stress on your joints and back. Pitchers do a lot of work with their legs and trunk.

I like the deal, mainly because the Reds got a long look at Broxton in 2012 and clearly liked what they saw. They have demonstrated a fairly keen eye for bullpen talent in recent years. I trust their judgment. Yet, if it goes wrong at some point, it's likely because his frame is breaking down under a 300+ pound load.

The only comp I can think of is CC and he's been healthy. Hopefully Brox can be too.

Tom Servo
11-28-2012, 11:51 AM
Not crazy about this, but 3/21 is a bit more reasonable than what I was anticipating.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 11:53 AM
Possible rotation for 2013:

Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Chapman
Arroyo
Leake
Lecure
Redmon
Cingrani
Hoover

Granted that the last two are not very likely, but they are still options. I think for once the Reds have a surplus of starting pitchers, and it would be fine to trade one of them to fill another hole on the team.

Agreed. If we can't fit Ludwick in the 2013 and beyond budget or if Walt doesn't think Luddy is going to repeat 2012, the Reds would be foolish to not try to acquire a LF via trade. We don't have an impact corner outfield prospect close to the bigs and we do have a lot of pitching available.

I would like Walt to call the Royals and Marlins and see what the prices are for Myers and Stanton. Let's see if we can just slightly overpay for one of them and put the Reds in much better position.

klw
11-28-2012, 11:58 AM
The only comp I can think of is CC and he's been healthy. Hopefully Brox can be too.

Coffee has been healthy too if I am remembering correctly.

camisadelgolf
11-28-2012, 12:41 PM
winning + happy clubhouse = not needing to overpay for free agents

camisadelgolf
11-28-2012, 12:45 PM
Telephone conference with Broxton about the signing: http://mlblogsramsey.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/broxton.mp3

westofyou
11-28-2012, 12:50 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19015



Glance at this and it looks like another case of a team buying into a small sample and proven closer mythology. But there might be a reason to think the Reds made their most important investment in Broxton before signing this contract. Broxton began throwing a cutter in late August, according to Brooks Baseball. The cutter became one of Broxton’s favorite tools in September—especially against left-handers when trailing in the count, or versus righties to start encounters. Broxton’s new toy finished the season with the highest whiff rate, lowest ball rate, and lowest True Average-against of his arsenal.

Differentiating between sliders and cutters is a difficult task, but there are two factors separating Broxton’s cutter and his slider. One is the velocity gap between the two pitches. Broxton’s cutter averaged 93 mph, while his slider sat at 88 mph. It would be fair to think some of the cutters are just hard-thrown sliders, and yet the fastest average slider (thrown by Tyler Yates) clocked in at less than 90 mph. Another difference is the vertical movement offered by the two pitches. The evidence points toward a new pitch rather than a misclassification.

_Sir_Charles_
11-28-2012, 12:56 PM
winning + happy clubhouse = not needing to overpay for free agents

A much overlooked formula. :thumbup:

MikeS21
11-28-2012, 01:28 PM
Broxton began throwing a cutter in late August, according to Brooks Baseball. The cutter became one of Broxton’s favorite tools in September—especially against left-handers when trailing in the count, or versus righties to start encounters. Broxton’s new toy finished the season with the highest whiff rate, lowest ball rate, and lowest True Average-against of his arsenal.
Is it just me, or have there been a lot of pitchers that have added a cutter later in their career and are able to squeeze a few more good years out in the process?

AmarilloRed
11-28-2012, 01:32 PM
I'm not convinced this will affect the Reds offseason much. There was a good chance we might have paid this money to Madsen before his injury, we'll be paying that money to Broxton now. I think that money was slotted for a reliever all along.

klw
11-28-2012, 01:42 PM
Madson is getting $3.5MM in guaranteed money, plus $2.5MM in roster bonuses and $1MM in incentives for games finished.

Details of deal
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/angels-to-sign-ryan-madson.html

So in at least year one, Broxton will be cheaper than Madson (assuming Madson gets over 5k of his bonuses)- not including the money going to Madson on the buyout..

mattfeet
11-28-2012, 01:44 PM
Wow. Im glad we're not paying that contract for a recovery season. Makes the Broxton deal look even better, IMO.

Blitz Dorsey
11-28-2012, 01:46 PM
I like it.

camisadelgolf
11-28-2012, 02:08 PM
I think it's mildly interesting that Broxton is younger than Sam LeCure.

Rojo
11-28-2012, 02:16 PM
Good deal, less than I thought. Although I know a wise man who recommended signing Broxton last off season. I know him real well.


With Bray gone and Chapman to the rotation, the bullpen is overwhelmingly righty.

Marshall is the only lefty in the bullpen.

I can live with that. Quality arms is top priority. My bigger concern is that Simon and Arrendondo are pumpkins. But, while I'm not a fan of building an entire pen from a Spring Training potluck, it's an ok strategy for adding the 10th/11th/12th guy to your staff.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 05:35 PM
Good deal, less than I thought. Although I know a wise man who recommended signing Broxton last off season. I know him real well.



I can live with that. Quality arms is top priority. My bigger concern is that Simon and Arrendondo are pumpkins. But, while I'm not a fan of building an entire pen from a Spring Training potluck, it's an ok strategy for adding the 10th/11th/12th guy to your staff.

Reds won't live with one lefty reliever. They'll add somebody. Either Cingrani or an acquisition, probably the latter.

Simon is ok for longer relief.

I think Simon, Marshall, Broxton, Lecure, Hoover will be there.

Other two spots can go various ways, I think one will be a lefty, but a number of possibilities.

RedLegsToday
11-28-2012, 06:17 PM
Is Masset still a Red?

redsmetz
11-28-2012, 06:21 PM
Is Masset still a Red?

As of right now, seems to me he still has another year on his contract.

Vottomatic
11-28-2012, 06:50 PM
Since the Reds have obviously decided Chapman will be a starter, I like the signing of Broxton.

I'm just not sold on Chapman as a starter. 2 pitches. Relies on a fastball hitting 100 mph, which the more pitches he throws slacks to 95 mph. Durability issues. Has never pitched mlb starter innings for a season. Has command issues from time to time. This has the potential to be a huge mistake. If it's a success, I don't see it being a huge one. As a closer, he could breeze through an inning on 9 or less pitches, and simply blowing people away. As a starter, it's hard to fool hitters for 5 or more innings with just a fastball and occasional slider.

Brutus
11-28-2012, 06:57 PM
Since the Reds have obviously decided Chapman will be a starter, I like the signing of Broxton.

I'm just not sold on Chapman as a starter. 2 pitches. Relies on a fastball hitting 100 mph, which the more pitches he throws slacks to 95 mph. Durability issues. Has never pitched mlb starter innings for a season. Has command issues from time to time. This has the potential to be a huge mistake. If it's a success, I don't see it being a huge one. As a closer, he could breeze through an inning on 9 or less pitches, and simply blowing people away. As a starter, it's hard to fool hitters for 5 or more innings with just a fastball and occasional slider.

Jocketty has said he also has a changeup (and in fact he used it a few times later in the year). I imagine part of the pitch selection is merely knowing they don't need to fool hitters as much late in the game. There's not a lot of time to catch up to a fastball.

If he's used as a starter, I'm sure you'll see the Reds call a bit more diverse a game for him.

edabbs44
11-28-2012, 07:06 PM
I like it.

Yes. I agree. Been saying it for years, these guys know what they are doing. Especially in the FA market.

membengal
11-28-2012, 07:08 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19015

Thanks for this woy, I hadn't seen that before.

Seems to me likely the Reds got enough of a look at that first hand to help make this decision easy. Add in that it is a pretty darn reasonable contract AND that it finally allows the move of Chapman to the rotation and this a pretty great day to be a Reds fan.

Vottomatic
11-28-2012, 07:19 PM
Jocketty has said he also has a changeup (and in fact he used it a few times later in the year). I imagine part of the pitch selection is merely knowing they don't need to fool hitters as much late in the game. There's not a lot of time to catch up to a fastball.

If he's used as a starter, I'm sure you'll see the Reds call a bit more diverse a game for him.

This is not meant to be a serious analysis comment.

On my I-Phone, I have the "9 Innings" baseball app. A really, really, really good, fun MLB (officially sanctioned by MLB) game to have on your phone. You can control everything, but I typically just control hitting and pitching. The pitching is fun because you get to see what pitches these guys throw. And it's interesting because some of our best pitchers don't have many pitches, and other guys like Leake, Arroyo, LeCure are more fun because they have like 4 or 5 in the game. For Chapman, they have a 2-seam, 4-seam, slider, and changeup. It's almost comical to throw Chapman's changeup because it's not much slower than the fastball or slider.

I even changed my batting lineup and moved Votto to hitting second. Last season, I missed the playoffs by a hair with Joey batting third, and this season I made them with Votto hitting second. Not real world, I know.........but it worked in this game.

Something else I found interesting, Marshall throws a Circle Change in this game. I don't think he actually throws it in reality. He has a slider, 4-seam, nasty curve, and a circle change according to them.

Cueto only throws a 4-seam, slider and changeup. I think Bailey throws a 4-seam, splitter, curve, slider and changeup. This is per this MLB sanctioned game, I remind you.

Anyway, it's a fun game. Does anyone else play it? I probably play one game a day when I have the time. Maybe waiting for a doctor's appointment or oil change, or waiting on my kids or something.

I had a no-hitter going the other day, and I laughed at myself because going into the 6th inning, I got nervous. LOL. :laugh:

Vottomatic
11-28-2012, 07:41 PM
I got some feedback from a friend of a friend who works for the Reds.

Broxton told he'll be a late innings reliever, but possibly close, because if the Chapman starting experiment doesn't work out, he'll move back to closer.

I wonder if this inhibits any starters being traded, in terms of being cautious?

gilpdawg
11-28-2012, 08:19 PM
The only comp I can think of is CC and he's been healthy. Hopefully Brox can be too.

Sid Fernandez?

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD

mth123
11-28-2012, 08:21 PM
I just don't see how they can afford to trade a starter unless they're adding another starter via trade or free agency. Not only is it unrealistic to expect everyone to stay healthy, it's crazy to think Chapman can go from closer to much more than 150 innings next season. They need rotation depth more than ever.

Agree completely. Leake to long relief or maybe even AAA for a while to start the season. I'd bet he makes 15 starts in 2013.

I'd stick Cingrani in the pen as the other lefty. Ondrusek and Arredondo would be the trade pieces with a kid or two IMO.

Broxton (CL)
Marshall (LHSU)
Hoover (RHSU)
Lecure (RMR)
Cingrani (LMR)
Masset/Simon (Mop-up)
Leake (Swingman)

gilpdawg
11-28-2012, 08:22 PM
Coffee has been healthy too if I am remembering correctly.

Coffey had TJ recently. Of course, you can't blame that on his weight.

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD

marcshoe
11-28-2012, 09:19 PM
I think it's mildly interesting that Broxton is younger than Sam LeCure.

Well, Lecure was a gunfighter in the old West. I think he rode with the Clantons.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 09:47 PM
Agree completely. Leake to long relief or maybe even AAA for a while to start the season. I'd bet he makes 15 starts in 2013.

I'd stick Cingrani in the pen as the other lefty. Ondrusek and Arredondo would be the trade pieces with a kid or two IMO.

Broxton (CL)
Marshall (LHSU)
Hoover (RHSU)
Lecure (RMR)
Cingrani (LMR)
Masset/Simon (Mop-up)
Leake (Swingman)

Reds have too many holes to hold Leake as a sixth starter. They probably can't afford more free agents of starting player quality. They will need to trade from their pitching depth.

They aren't getting a regular LF or CF for Didi Gregorius and Ryan Lamarre.

You go with five starters. You do your best to come up with depth guys in case of injury.

I'd be amazed if Leake was in the bullpen waiting for an opening. I've been amazed before, so it's possible. I expect a trade from the pitching depth.

Wheelhouse
11-28-2012, 10:27 PM
I would never pay a nonathlete that kind of money. In the lousy shape he is in he could get hit any second with back, shoulder, knee problems. He also strikes me as a feast or famine guy.

Matt700wlw
11-28-2012, 10:39 PM
He's pretty quick for a big guy. I would say he's athletic

Tom Servo
11-28-2012, 10:56 PM
I would never pay a nonathlete that kind of money. In the lousy shape he is in he could get hit any second with back, shoulder, knee problems. He also strikes me as a feast or famine guy.
You probably wouldn't be a very good GM then.


I'm willing to bet Broxton can do more 'athletic' things than our closer from 2008-2011 anyway.

Roy Tucker
11-28-2012, 11:07 PM
Well, Lecure was a gunfighter in the old West. I think he rode with the Clantons.

They were duelin', Doolin-Daltons

WMR
11-29-2012, 12:00 AM
This seems like a significant misappropriation of funds considering the overall salary constraints likely facing the Reds and their other, more pressing, needs.

757690
11-29-2012, 12:02 AM
I would never pay a nonathlete that kind of money. In the lousy shape he is in he could get hit any second with back, shoulder, knee problems. He also strikes me as a feast or famine guy.

Yeah, Babe Ruth was overpaid ;)

I'm reminded of a John Kruk story:

He was eating ribs at a nice restaurant, very sloppily and aggressively, when a woman came up to him aghast. She told him he should be ashamed of himself, considering he was an athlete. To which he replied, "Lady, I ain't an athelte, I'm a baseball player."

Brutus
11-29-2012, 12:52 AM
This seems like a significant misappropriation of funds considering the overall salary constraints likely facing the Reds and their other, more pressing, needs.

They're paying him $4 million this year. $7 mil next. This isn't 1995 any more. That's not a ton of money.

westofyou
11-29-2012, 01:00 AM
They were duelin', Doolin-Daltons

Nice

gilpdawg
11-29-2012, 02:13 AM
This is not meant to be a serious analysis comment.

On my I-Phone, I have the "9 Innings" baseball app. A really, really, really good, fun MLB (officially sanctioned by MLB) game to have on your phone. You can control everything, but I typically just control hitting and pitching. The pitching is fun because you get to see what pitches these guys throw. And it's interesting because some of our best pitchers don't have many pitches, and other guys like Leake, Arroyo, LeCure are more fun because they have like 4 or 5 in the game. For Chapman, they have a 2-seam, 4-seam, slider, and changeup. It's almost comical to throw Chapman's changeup because it's not much slower than the fastball or slider.

I even changed my batting lineup and moved Votto to hitting second. Last season, I missed the playoffs by a hair with Joey batting third, and this season I made them with Votto hitting second. Not real world, I know.........but it worked in this game.

Something else I found interesting, Marshall throws a Circle Change in this game. I don't think he actually throws it in reality. He has a slider, 4-seam, nasty curve, and a circle change according to them.

Cueto only throws a 4-seam, slider and changeup. I think Bailey throws a 4-seam, splitter, curve, slider and changeup. This is per this MLB sanctioned game, I remind you.

Anyway, it's a fun game. Does anyone else play it? I probably play one game a day when I have the time. Maybe waiting for a doctor's appointment or oil change, or waiting on my kids or something.

I had a no-hitter going the other day, and I laughed at myself because going into the 6th inning, I got nervous. LOL. :laugh:

Thanks. Now I am hooked on this stupid game. :p

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

Wonderful Monds
11-29-2012, 03:01 AM
Thanks. Now I am hooked on this stupid game. :p

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

I just downloaded this, clearly whoever made this game is not from the US. Very broken English, cheerleaders, whistles signaling foul balls for some reason lol.

Fun game though

camisadelgolf
11-29-2012, 03:45 AM
Something else I found interesting, Marshall throws a Circle Change in this game. I don't think he actually throws it in reality. He has a slider, 4-seam, nasty curve, and a circle change according to them.
Marshall used to throw a change-up when he was a starter--whether it was a circle change, I don't know--but he doesn't use it as a reliever.

traderumor
11-29-2012, 09:24 AM
I would never pay a nonathlete that kind of money. In the lousy shape he is in he could get hit any second with back, shoulder, knee problems. He also strikes me as a feast or famine guy.Baseball is full of non-athletes. Prince Fielder? Plays 150 games a year, can't get him out of the lineup. Has he ever had a serious injury? His teammate is chubby and has a drinking problem. Bronson Arroyo is too skinny and susceptible to mono. Joey Votto is in great shape and wrenched his knee. Paragraphs could be written on nonathletes that are good major leaguers. There are even nonathletes in the HOF. The horror!

If you don't want to see a "nonathlete" get paid, better start rooting for triathletes, because baseball is full of them.

traderumor
11-29-2012, 09:28 AM
This seems like a significant misappropriation of funds considering the overall salary constraints likely facing the Reds and their other, more pressing, needs.
Man, you should have told them before they made this deal. Now what are they going to do? Didn't anyone check the budget before they signed this contract?

Wheelhouse
11-29-2012, 10:18 AM
Baseball is full of non-athletes. Prince Fielder? Plays 150 games a year, can't get him out of the lineup. Has he ever had a serious injury? His teammate is chubby and has a drinking problem. Bronson Arroyo is too skinny and susceptible to mono. Joey Votto is in great shape and wrenched his knee. Paragraphs could be written on nonathletes that are good major leaguers. There are even nonathletes in the HOF. The horror!

If you don't want to see a "nonathlete" get paid, better start rooting for triathletes, because baseball is full of them.

Prince Fielder is a tremendous athlete. I've seen him make very athletic plays at 1st base. Broxton will never clear a half inch when he jumps. And I'm sure every time he doesn't run in the off-season or has that extra slice, he tells himself that baseball is a game of "all kinds". They guy is a pitcher and has to exert himself every play of the game that he's in. He needs to get in shape.

traderumor
11-29-2012, 10:38 AM
Prince Fielder is a tremendous athlete. I've seen him make very athletic plays at 1st base. Broxton will never clear a half inch when he jumps. And I'm sure every time he doesn't run in the off-season or has that extra slice, he tells himself that baseball is a game of "all kinds". They guy is a pitcher and has to exert himself every play of the game that he's in. He needs to get in shape.
That's hilarious. Prince Fielder is ridiculously out of shape, probably moreso than Broxton, who has a HUGE frame and is just one, big, thick dude. Fielder is short and fat, a son of blubber. I would submit that Broxton is no less of an athlete than Fielder for the very same reason. Despite the fact that they are not in the best physical condition, they can do what they do at the highest level.

Also, there is no guarantee that being in "better physical condition" would enhance their performance. Broxton is asked to throw a baseball really hard and get major league hitters out, which thus far he has done what he gets paid to do. He had an arm injury which happens to fat kids, skinny kids, kids that climb on rocks, even kids with chickenpox.

Your opinion sounds like something Marge would have said.

Sea Ray
11-29-2012, 10:43 AM
Man, you should have told them before they made this deal. Now what are they going to do? Didn't anyone check the budget before they signed this contract?

I understand but if not Broxton, who closes? If we are of the opinion that the future is now for this team, they ought not go looking for the next re-tread project to mold into a closer. At $7mill, I can live with this. That's half of what Coco got and you can make the case they we got our money's worth out of that

westofyou
11-29-2012, 11:24 AM
He's a pitcher, I hardly worry about his athleticism, plus he's relief pitcher who doesn't bat (8 PA's in his career)

Wilbur Wood, Mickey Lolich, Freddy Fitzimmons say hello, that's just the tip of the ice cream sundae.

Broxton fat??

Hell yes he's fat.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m0ziuhwr6b1qbr0nfo1_500.jpg

dougdirt
11-29-2012, 11:46 AM
Fangraphs had up an article today on Broxton and his newly added cutter (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pitch-to-watch-jonathan-broxtons-cutter-2/).

Broxton’s overall whiff rates exhibited an acute post-cutter rise, spiking to 11.6 percent after he managed just a 6.4 percent mark in Kansas City. His improved control put him in the position to make the whiffs count.

The cutter appears to be the main driver, particularly against right-handed hitters. He went with it on the first pitch over 50 percent of the time from September on, and the minuscule 23.1 percent ball rate routinely put hitters in unfavorable counts. The post-cutter difference is clear:

More at the link, but it is certainly interesting.

traderumor
11-29-2012, 11:49 AM
He's a pitcher, I hardly worry about his athleticism, plus he's relief pitcher who doesn't bat (8 PA's in his career)

Wilbur Wood, Mickey Lolich, Freddy Fitzimmons say hello, that's just the tip of the ice cream sundae.

Broxton fat??

Hell yes he's fat.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m0ziuhwr6b1qbr0nfo1_500.jpgRight, and that he should not sprint in from the bullpen like a certain other fat boy reliever to where his man boobs are hitting him in the face.

Chip R
11-29-2012, 12:35 PM
I don't worry about his arm per se, but that extra weight puts a lot of stress on your joints and back. Pitchers do a lot of work with their legs and trunk.

I like the deal, mainly because the Reds got a long look at Broxton in 2012 and clearly liked what they saw. They have demonstrated a fairly keen eye for bullpen talent in recent years. I trust their judgment. Yet, if it goes wrong at some point, it's likely because his frame is breaking down under a 300+ pound load.

The question of Broxton's weight reminds me of a quote from the TV series Deadwood where Al Swearengen told one of his *****s. "You know, saying I like you hefty, don't mean you couldn't stand losing a couple pounds."

He's a big guy and maybe that works for him. After all we don't want to cut Samson's hair. However, it certainly wouldn't hurt if he lost some weight.

Rojo
11-29-2012, 12:59 PM
I'm reminded of a John Kruk story:

He was eating ribs at a nice restaurant, very sloppily and aggressively, when a woman came up to him aghast. She told him he should be ashamed of himself, considering he was an athlete. To which he replied, "Lady, I ain't an athelte, I'm a baseball player."

The way I heard it, he was smoking a cigarette.

RichRed
11-29-2012, 01:04 PM
I would never pay a nonathlete that kind of money. In the lousy shape he is in he could get hit any second with back, shoulder, knee problems. He also strikes me as a feast or famine guy.

Nah, too easy.

Rojo
11-29-2012, 01:23 PM
Nah, too easy.

In short-relief he won't be an inning-eater.

Wheelhouse
11-29-2012, 02:28 PM
That's hilarious. Prince Fielder is ridiculously out of shape, probably moreso than Broxton, who has a HUGE frame and is just one, big, thick dude. Fielder is short and fat, a son of blubber. I would submit that Broxton is no less of an athlete than Fielder for the very same reason. Despite the fact that they are not in the best physical condition, they can do what they do at the highest level.

Also, there is no guarantee that being in "better physical condition" would enhance their performance. Broxton is asked to throw a baseball really hard and get major league hitters out, which thus far he has done what he gets paid to do. He had an arm injury which happens to fat kids, skinny kids, kids that climb on rocks, even kids with chickenpox.

Your opinion sounds like something Marge would have said.

Here's a Fuller scouting analysis of Broxton. Nice try with the Marge reference: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/05/scouting-notebook-time-for-jonathan-broxton-to-lose-some-weight.html

Tom Servo
11-29-2012, 02:44 PM
Here's a Fuller scouting analysis of Broxton. Nice try with the Marge reference: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/05/scouting-notebook-time-for-jonathan-broxton-to-lose-some-weight.html
Except it WAS his arm as he was placed on the DL two days after that article was published.

Sea Ray
11-29-2012, 02:54 PM
Except it WAS his arm as he was placed on the DL two days after that article was published.

Exactly. That article is very outdated

traderumor
11-29-2012, 03:02 PM
Except it WAS his arm as he was placed on the DL two days after that article was published.Makes you wonder why the scout didn't delete the article and leave "nm" in its place.

traderumor
11-29-2012, 04:05 PM
Here's a Fuller scouting analysis of Broxton. Nice try with the Marge reference: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/05/scouting-notebook-time-for-jonathan-broxton-to-lose-some-weight.htmlIt was a big old fat plate of presumption by the writer to submit that Broxton's conditioning was the cause of the effect then, though, the same that you are making now.

Wheelhouse
11-30-2012, 12:46 AM
It was a big old fat plate of presumption by the writer to submit that Broxton's conditioning was the cause of the effect then, though, the same that you are making now.

What is scouting, but presumption. Deeply educated presumption. Which is why saber-headsnhate it so as a means of evaluating talent...

membengal
11-30-2012, 05:33 AM
What is scouting, but presumption. Deeply educated presumption. Which is why saber-headsnhate it so as a means of evaluating talent...

Good grief.

camisadelgolf
11-30-2012, 05:45 AM
Best clubhouse I've been in. It was great. Guys played hard and took care of business the right way . . . You can't ask for a better pitching coach than Bryan Price.

traderumor
11-30-2012, 09:29 AM
What is scouting, but presumption. Deeply educated presumption. Which is why saber-headsnhate it so as a means of evaluating talent...No, its an art and a science using observation and knowledge developed over years of understanding and identifying the physical tools that players possess and their ability to use those tools to succeed in the skill they are being asked to perform. While presumption can be involved, it doesn't have to be. In this piece, the author had the presumption that it was physical conditioning that was behind Broxton's inability to perform at previous levels without mentioning that it could be a bum arm. If he would have mentioned an injury theory, then he might not look so foolish and off base in his analysis. But his entire analysis was based on a false presumption that "Broxton is fat, that is why he is ineffective" and then went on to prove his false theory. That is presumption 101. Scouts do not have be presumptuous to do their job. Assumptions, yes, presumption, no.

I think a good analogy would be the family doctor who is a D.O., and uses the science of medicine, a body of knowledge that he has acquired, and tools of observation to properly diagnose and prescribe corrective action for a patient without necessarily running a battery of tests to determine the exact nature of the illness.

BTW, you'd be hard-pressed to consider me a "saber-headsnhate," which I presume is a derogatory remark made at folks who use statistical analysis as a tool to evaluate baseball players. Regardless, it was an unnecessary potshot, probably even at a lower level than the "I would never give a fat player a pay day." A smart fan realizes that both disciplines are required in a successful MLB organization and that discussions on boards such as this do not require one to favor one over the other to discuss the merits of a player. However, you see so much discussion using statistical analysis because it is readily available to folks who post here, whereas professional scouting information is not.

Tom Servo
06-13-2013, 07:44 PM
http://i.imgur.com/UANQRGP.gif