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View Full Version : Broxton's new 3 year deal



Road Pop
11-28-2012, 04:46 AM
Seems to be getting a deal similar to League's.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/28/report-reds-re-sign-jonathan-broxton-to-multiyear-deal/related/

Road Pop
11-28-2012, 04:49 AM
Half asleep. Just saw someone posted in the other Broxton thread.

jhiller21
11-28-2012, 05:33 AM
This probably means Chapman to the rotation, which still scares me. He doesn't have a good changeup, and his fastball is as straight as it is fast. Big league hitters will kill that ball the third time through the lineup.

I hope I'm wrong, but Chapman is closer material.

webbbj
11-28-2012, 08:57 AM
i just hope the deal isnt worth more than $4mill per year

KYRedLeg
11-28-2012, 09:41 AM
This probably means Chapman to the rotation, which still scares me. He doesn't have a good changeup, and his fastball is as straight as it is fast. Big league hitters will kill that ball the third time through the lineup.

I hope I'm wrong, but Chapman is closer material.

Around the end of the season, it seemed like the hitters were starting to realize: don't swing unless you absolutely have to. So many of his early strikeouts were on hitters swinging at ball 3 and/or 4. His control scares me.

TSJ55
11-28-2012, 10:00 AM
This probably means Chapman to the rotation, which still scares me. He doesn't have a good changeup, and his fastball is as straight as it is fast. Big league hitters will kill that ball the third time through the lineup.

I hope I'm wrong, but Chapman is closer material.

It's going to be a nightmare. I cannot wrap my head around why they're so hell bent on "fixing" a pitching staff that was the only consistency they had last year.

Salukifan2
11-28-2012, 10:31 AM
3 years 21mil is way more than broxton is worth.

Larkin88
11-28-2012, 10:40 AM
I don't particularly like or dislike this deal for either party. Reds paid about market value considering the deals League and Affeldt got as set-up men or earlier relievers.

Honestly, I thought it might be closer to 3/24. $9 million in 2015 isn't too hateful and the team could always move him if they needed to.

Larkin88
11-28-2012, 10:44 AM
It's going to be a nightmare. I cannot wrap my head around why they're so hell bent on "fixing" a pitching staff that was the only consistency they had last year.

You may be right and of course are entitled to feel whichever way you choose. I do think it's worth letting this off-season come into further view before handing out report cards, though.

Chapman to the rotation also may free up an arm for a trade to better improve the other side of the ball.

Also, after spending a few weeks watching him start down in Goodyear last year (yes, I know Spring Training doesn't mean a lot), I'm more optimistic about his ability to start than I was previously.

Let's just hope for the best.

texasdave
11-28-2012, 10:58 AM
Assuming Leake is the odd man out now, I certainly hope they don't up and deal him away over the winter. I would hate to see Todd Redmond taking the ball every fifth day, if Chapman as a starter doesn't pan out.

Larkin88
11-28-2012, 11:04 AM
Assuming Leake is the odd man out now, I certainly hope they don't up and deal him away over the winter. I would hate to see Todd Redmond taking the ball every fifth day, if Chapman as a starter doesn't pan out.

I'm with you Dave. If we do have to ship Leake out to improve the club, I at least hope he isn't packaged with Cingrani or Corcino as well. I think even if Chapman pans out exactly as we might hope, the chances of the Reds making it through 162 games with only 5 starters again are pretty slim.

Of course, as always, it all depends on the return. I could get down on some Wil Myers...

Unfortunately, I'm not sure the Reds have overly enticing chips they're willing to part with in a trade that are not pitchers.

Salukifan2
11-28-2012, 11:08 AM
This has the potential to be very scary. If Broxton returns to his '10 and '11 form and Chapman isn't very successful as a starter this could really hurt the reds. If it aint broke don't fix it right?

texasdave
11-28-2012, 11:36 AM
Walt certainly likes to push that money on down the road, doesn't he?

joshua
11-28-2012, 11:37 AM
Yeah, I hope this is to solidify the setup role for the next few seasons and keeping Chapman at closer. I don't trust him pitching multiple times through a lineup at this point. When things go south for him, it seems like they so in a hurry. I could also see him having to be shut down early and he's one of the few guys on the team I think is neccessary for a long run in the playoffs. I really hope they plan on keeping him at closer. This rotation was awesome last year, despite how young they were, so why change it?

webbbj
11-28-2012, 11:49 AM
ugh. way over paid for broxton.

malcontent
11-28-2012, 01:21 PM
Visions of another Rich Harden....great stats over 5-6 innings, with high pitch counts (walks, strikeouts and deep counts) forcing early exits.

I'm afraid hitters are going to be far more patient facing Chapman as a starter, so his control is going to have to improve significantly for this to work at all.

Larkin88
11-28-2012, 03:47 PM
Off the top of my head, does this make Marshall the only lefty in the bullpen now that Bray is gone and Chapman is seemingly rotation-bound?

Got to think that's something they will look to address in a middle reliever, either through internal rejumbling or by going outside the organization. Cingrani, maybe? (I personally hope he continues to be developed as a starter)

nkyguys.02
11-28-2012, 05:34 PM
Walt's plan was for Chapman to start last year, but Madson ended up getting hurt. No surprise he is trying again this year. I don't see it as just slightly overpaying for a closer, I see it as a closer and picking up a potential ace that has the talent to be our true #1. Hopefully we model our plan with Chapman similar to the Braves method with Medlin. Keep Leake around to eat up some innings and as a safety net until the missle proves himself in the rotation. Chapman's stats in spring training were great. Here's to hoping it translate to a full season of starting.

We still need another lefty in the pen, and some help with the sticks. Getting two other needs for the high end price of one closer seems like the right direction to me.

DocRed
11-28-2012, 06:30 PM
I'm OK with that if it gets Chapman in the Starting rotation. Plus Brandon League isn't Mariano Rivera either. He is older than Broxton and has worse 2012 and career stats. If that is what League got paid, then Broxton's fair market value should be similar.

Plus, don't forget we were shelling out over $12 million a year for Coco Cordero. Anything seems like a good deal after that...

MoneyInTheBank
11-28-2012, 07:40 PM
It's obviously a risk, but the Reds must be pretty confident that his 2nd half of 2010 and all of 2011 was due to injury. You can certainly close out games cheaper than $7M annually but I'm not going to raise too big of a stink over it

Hondo
11-28-2012, 07:55 PM
You guys that are saying $7 Million per year is way more than Broxton is worth need to wake up and smell the coffee... That is the market...

I mean, the Reds got a "discount" on Madson last year for $8.5 Million, so if Broxton was not injured in 2011 and had played on a better team than the Royals the entire year... He might have had 40-50 saves last year so $7 Million is quite a bargain considering Broxton is getting security and the Reds aren't having to pay $12-$15 Million per year for a closer.

Good Deal ALL AROUND for both parties.

texasdave
11-29-2012, 11:27 AM
Fangraphs not enamored by the deal. They don't really hate it either. Puzzled may be the right word.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jonathan-broxton-and-the-reds-bullpen/

LexRedsFan
11-30-2012, 02:29 AM
It feels like we overpaid. bleh.I kind of agree with the fangraphs sentiment. It's kind of an enigma.

webbbj
11-30-2012, 09:48 AM
You guys that are saying $7 Million per year is way more than Broxton is worth need to wake up and smell the coffee... That is the market...

I mean, the Reds got a "discount" on Madson last year for $8.5 Million, so if Broxton was not injured in 2011 and had played on a better team than the Royals the entire year... He might have had 40-50 saves last year so $7 Million is quite a bargain considering Broxton is getting security and the Reds aren't having to pay $12-$15 Million per year for a closer.

Good Deal ALL AROUND for both parties.

Thats the market for overpaid relievers. The guy pitches 1 inning a game and isnt even used properly. (and thats for every manager). The reds bullpen would be just fine w/ who the have coming through the organization.


For $21mill/3yrs that could of been used to get a decent bat which is way more valuable than someone who plays 60 innings.

TSJ55
11-30-2012, 10:09 AM
For $21mill/3yrs that could of been used to get a decent bat which is way more valuable than someone who plays 60 innings.

No way Dude. Everybody knows that the Reds starting staff was turrible. Chapman was so hit or miss that his closing role must be changed. Consistent clutch hitting and putting up crooked numbers inning after inning is how they won so many games last year.

rgslone
11-30-2012, 10:10 AM
Aren't there still some concerns about the health of Broxton's arm? That was the impression that I had last season. There was also discussion about his drop off in velocity compared to his days with the Dodgers, as well as weight issues. I could have the wrong impressions about Broxton, so somebody with much more knowledge about his situation please reassure me that at least his health is not a concern.

Larkin88
11-30-2012, 03:22 PM
Aren't there still some concerns about the health of Broxton's arm? That was the impression that I had last season. There was also discussion about his drop off in velocity compared to his days with the Dodgers, as well as weight issues. I could have the wrong impressions about Broxton, so somebody with much more knowledge about his situation please reassure me that at least his health is not a concern.

His health is improving over where it was going into 2011. I think the Reds are gambling that his time with Cincinnati was more reflective of what we could expect from a healthy Broxton going forward... as opposed to when he was still a little dinged up even with the Royals.

We'll see how it pans out, obviously. I think that's the play here, though.

texasdave
11-30-2012, 03:28 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4759&position=P

Interesting numbers on Broxton. He was exclusively fastball and slider with the Royals. But since coming over to the Reds he added the cutter. Hmm.

Salukifan2
11-30-2012, 05:56 PM
I think you had to try Chapman as a starter at some point or else there would always be that what if feeling, that being said the reds will be in a tight spot if Broxton doesn't work because as everyone knows a bullpen arm could be great one year and awful the next. Its very unlikely that Simon, Arredondo, and Marshall all have sub 3 era next season.

So you have to move Chapman to starter at some point, you just have to hope it doesn't blow up on you.

webbbj
12-01-2012, 12:10 AM
I think you had to try Chapman as a starter at some point or else there would always be that what if feeling, that being said the reds will be in a tight spot if Broxton doesn't work because as everyone knows a bullpen arm could be great one year and awful the next. Its very unlikely that Simon, Arredondo, and Marshall all have sub 3 era next season.

So you have to move Chapman to starter at some point, you just have to hope it doesn't blow up on you.

They should have started chapman last year. Who is the bullpen should have no bearing on whether chapman is a starter. If the reds want to start him just start him. They wanted to start him last year and had no excuse not to. Madsen getting injured wasnt an excuse. They didnt have to overpay for a "closer" to justify starting chapman.

The whole "closer" role frustrates me, waiting so long to start chapman frustrates me, and the idea that whether chapman starts is contingent on finding a "closer" frustrates me.

I love jockety and the reds I just think chapman has been misused from day 1.

They knew they wanted him to be a starter from the moment they signed him. They should have never flip flopped on that plan. He probably could have started a full season last year if they just stuck to the original plan.

MoneyInTheBank
12-01-2012, 08:26 AM
Its very unlikely that Simon, Arredondo, and Marshall all have sub 3 era next season.

Agree on Simon. Arredondo, other than the year when his elbow exploded had ERAs of 1.62, 3.23, 2.95. I would expect his ERA to be around 3. Marshall has been under 3 for 3 years running so I would be more surprised if his wasn't under 3.