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Kc61
11-28-2012, 09:54 AM
OK, Broxton is signed, the Reds presumably will try Chapman as a starter. They have Redmond as a backup starter.

Some member of the rotation likely will go.

The obvious candidate is Mike Leake. He had the worst year last year and his stuff may point to a rocky career. But he is young, was very good in 2011, and maybe the return in a trade won't be so great right now.

The second candidate is Homer Bailey. He seemed to turn the corner late last season. Pitched a no-no, a great playoff performance. But has Homer shown over a full season that he is a TOR guy or solid number three? Should the Reds sell high? Could bring a good return.

The third candidate is Bronson Arroyo. Bronson redeemed himself well last year. But his contract has only one year left, as I recall, so he may be attractive to a contender looking for a solid veteran without a long commitment. It's the Reds' chance to save some money on salary for next year and get a decent return. Bronson might have approval or other rights that could complicate this.

Cueto and Latos seem pretty set, not including them.

I expect something soon. Just guessing, but it could be that the Broxton signing was done with the Chapman move and a trade of one starter all lined up.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 10:11 AM
I would make any starter available at the right price, including Chapman, Cueto and Latos. I obviously value those three gentlemen more than the other four who could be Reds' starters next year (Bailey, Leake, Arroyo, Redmond), but if it takes a Chapman to get a Giancarlo Stanton, you make that deal. Right now, the Reds have major starting pitching depth. It is time to trade some of that depth to land a cornerstone bat to put this team over the top. This Broxton deal just gave us the flexibility to make a major move.

Reds1
11-28-2012, 10:24 AM
if improves the team any trade can be made, but one thing last year showed me is that pitching wins and if we have to have mediocre hitting and awesome pitching so be it, but I think the reds need another started not to get ride of one. You can never have enough. Even though we had a special season with no injuries to the rotation we lost Cueto when it counted. We just need some tweaks on offense. Too many strike out guys, but that being said we have pitching and defense and that will take you a long way. If the key guys stay healthy (Votto, BP) and say Bruce is more consistant - the growth of young guys and a couple tweaks I'm ok with as long as they continue to beef up pitching. I wouldn't mind seeing a trade for a contact type hitter with the group of starters like STubbs, Heisey, etc. for a contact type OF I would be ok with.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 10:35 AM
if improves the team any trade can be made, but one thing last year showed me is that pitching wins and if we have to have mediocre hitting and awesome pitching so be it, but I think the reds need another started not to get ride of one. You can never have enough. Even though we had a special season with no injuries to the rotation we lost Cueto when it counted. We just need some tweaks on offense. Too many strike out guys, but that being said we have pitching and defense and that will take you a long way. If the key guys stay healthy (Votto, BP) and say Bruce is more consistant - the growth of young guys and a couple tweaks I'm ok with as long as they continue to beef up pitching. I wouldn't mind seeing a trade for a contact type hitter with the group of starters like STubbs, Heisey, etc. for a contact type OF I would be ok with.

I agree but you really can't have six real starting pitchers each of whom expects to start every fifth day.

I guess you could put Leake in the bullpen, but it's not optimal.

If the Reds have Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Bailey, Leake, and Arroyo, the best solution for next year is to trade one of them. They are too valuable to have sitting around in case of injury.

People like Redmond, Cingrani, maybe Corcino next year are the backups in case of injury or other need.

osuceltic
11-28-2012, 10:38 AM
if improves the team any trade can be made, but one thing last year showed me is that pitching wins and if we have to have mediocre hitting and awesome pitching so be it, but I think the reds need another started not to get ride of one. You can never have enough. Even though we had a special season with no injuries to the rotation we lost Cueto when it counted. We just need some tweaks on offense. Too many strike out guys, but that being said we have pitching and defense and that will take you a long way. If the key guys stay healthy (Votto, BP) and say Bruce is more consistant - the growth of young guys and a couple tweaks I'm ok with as long as they continue to beef up pitching. I wouldn't mind seeing a trade for a contact type hitter with the group of starters like STubbs, Heisey, etc. for a contact type OF I would be ok with.

Just posted this in the Broxton thread, but I agree with you. You can't count on everyone staying healthy and effective next season and you certainly can't count on Chapman going from closer to anything more than 150 innings. They need rotation depth.

They may trade a starter, but not unless they bring in another one (or two) via trade or free agency.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

LegallyMinded
11-28-2012, 10:48 AM
Just posted this in the Broxton thread, but I agree with you. You can't count on everyone staying healthy and effective next season and you certainly can't count on Chapman going from closer to anything more than 150 innings. They need rotation depth.

They may trade a starter, but not unless they bring in another one (or two) via trade or free agency.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Jeff Samardzjia and Chris Sale went from relieving to pitching 170 and 190 innings, respectively, last year, so I wouldn't say Chapman can't necessarily shoulder the full workload of a starter. Nonetheless, I share your concern about pitching depth in light of the Chapman's move to the rotation: There's always the chance that he pulls a Daniel Bard, and is woefully ineffective as a starter. I'm sure the Reds recognize that possibility, though, and will have some kind of backup plan (and hopefully one that goes beyond Mark Redman).

mdccclxix
11-28-2012, 10:52 AM
How often does a starter begin the year on the dl? I'd say pretty often. Walt can push Leake to the pen if he has to, but he won't have to until late March. Until then, he can try to find a great deal, but certainly doesn't need to be in sell mode.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 11:48 AM
Just posted this in the Broxton thread, but I agree with you. You can't count on everyone staying healthy and effective next season and you certainly can't count on Chapman going from closer to anything more than 150 innings. They need rotation depth.

They may trade a starter, but not unless they bring in another one (or two) via trade or free agency.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

I love pitching. Us Reds' fans know what it is like to not have enough pitching. But you don't want to go from one extreme to the other. We don't want to become pitching "hoarders." Mike Leake loses a tremendous amount of value going from a solid back-end starter to a guy who is a long reliever.

As stated by Kc61, we have Redmond, Cingrani and Corcino also as 5th rotation options if a starter gets hurt. I personally would deal two guys if it meant I got a major improvement like Myers/Stanton.

Right now, the Reds aren't good enough to put them safely into the 2013 post-season. We have major holes in LF and CF. The Reds cannot count on getting Ludwick-lucky in 2013. Adding a legit bat between Bruce and Votto will not only give us a top half of the NL offense, but it will save us from griping about Dusty batting Phillips clean-up just to go L-R-L.

Imagine a team of:

Phillips
Frazier
Votto
Myers/Stanton
Bruce
Bernadina & Stubbs
Mesagin
Cozart
P

Latos
Cueto
Chapman
Bailey
Arroyo

Redmond
LeCure
Simon
Cingrani
Hoover
Marshall
Broxton

That's the kind of team I want to go to battle with in 2013.

RedEye
11-28-2012, 11:50 AM
I'm not sure they will necessarily look to deal a starter. As others have already pointed out, a lot of pitching is a good thing to have. Reds fans may have gotten a bit spoiled last year by the historic season the rotation had in terms of health. Teams don't usually have five healthy starters all year long. Walt and Bob know that.

That said, if an impact bat at leadoff or cleanup can be had by using one of these assets at a reasonable exchange rate, I'm sure Jocketty goes for it. He proved to me last offseason that he has a plan and will not hesitate to make deals if he feels the time is right.

_Sir_Charles_
11-28-2012, 01:14 PM
First off, I look at Redmond as an emergency back-up plan. A Matt Maloney type. AAAA player. So I'm not figuring him into any equation to be honest.

Cingrani and Corcino. They're both highly touted and for good reason. But does anybody here seriously see them as ready to be starters in the Majors this season (outside of an emergency spot start)? I certainly don't. Not yet, and not on a contending team. IMO they have to FORCE their way into the rotation. You don't trade away a proven starter to let them slide in.

Leake is highly undervalued here on Redszone IMO. Sure, he was the 5th starter for our club last year and had the worst numbers of the 5. But compared to the rest of the league, Leake was a poor #3 starter, a solid #4 or a fantastic #5 depending on how you want to figure it. Simply put, he was a valuable member of the rotation. And once you factor in his age and cost...VERY valuable. But that being said, Chapman to the rotation seems to be a foregone conclusion so Leake does seem to be the odd man out. But that certainly doesn't mean he goes to the bullpen to be put to sleep as a rarely used long man, and it also doesn't mean he has to be traded due to an "excess" of starting pitching. IMO it means that he needs to go to AAA and continue to start in order to stay on a consistent schedule as a starter. Chapman will NOT be able to pitch all season. Not a chance. Leake is the obvious replacement for those needed starts (and any other available starts to give the other 4 a needed breather). But that's only the aspect of this coming season. There's more to look at...the long term. After this season, Bronson's tenure is most likely done. Leake is the incredibly obvious replacement for Arroyo's role in the rotation. A softer tosser to break up the hard throwers, a control pitcher who's main weapons are off speed and breaking balls, a VERY solid defender and hitter. He is Bronson v2.0. That isn't something I want to trade away to solve a problem for one season.

So basically, in my opinion, the only pitchers we should even consider shopping are the minor league guys. I would prefer to hold onto Stephenson for sure. And one of Cingrani/Corcino would be advisable IMO too. If Cingrani looks destined for the pen, then trading him before that becomes readily apparent to opposing teams might be advisable. But I don't want to see them ditch the idea of him starting before he gets a real chance against AAA hitters. I'd prefer to see both C's starting in AAA all season long and then get september callups.

I just don't get the need/desire to trade away starting pitching because we brought in Redmond. And that's basically what we're saying here it seems. The kids aren't ready and Leake will be needed down the line. Hang onto them. Deal from other areas.

LoganBuck
11-28-2012, 01:31 PM
OK, Broxton is signed, the Reds presumably will try Chapman as a starter. They have Redmond as a backup starter.

Some member of the rotation likely will go.

The obvious candidate is Mike Leake. He had the worst year last year and his stuff may point to a rocky career. But he is young, was very good in 2011, and maybe the return in a trade won't be so great right now.

The second candidate is Homer Bailey. He seemed to turn the corner late last season. Pitched a no-no, a great playoff performance. But has Homer shown over a full season that he is a TOR guy or solid number three? Should the Reds sell high? Could bring a good return.

The third candidate is Bronson Arroyo. Bronson redeemed himself well last year. But his contract has only one year left, as I recall, so he may be attractive to a contender looking for a solid veteran without a long commitment. It's the Reds' chance to save some money on salary for next year and get a decent return. Bronson might have approval or other rights that could complicate this.

Cueto and Latos seem pretty set, not including them.

I expect something soon. Just guessing, but it could be that the Broxton signing was done with the Chapman move and a trade of one starter all lined up.

A good summation, I would add that Bronson Arroyo has 10/5 rights, so he is going no where, without approving it.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 01:34 PM
First off, I look at Redmond as an emergency back-up plan. A Matt Maloney type. AAAA player. So I'm not figuring him into any equation to be honest.

Cingrani and Corcino. They're both highly touted and for good reason. But does anybody here seriously see them as ready to be starters in the Majors this season (outside of an emergency spot start)? I certainly don't. Not yet, and not on a contending team. IMO they have to FORCE their way into the rotation. You don't trade away a proven starter to let them slide in.

Leake is highly undervalued here on Redszone IMO. Sure, he was the 5th starter for our club last year and had the worst numbers of the 5. But compared to the rest of the league, Leake was a poor #3 starter, a solid #4 or a fantastic #5 depending on how you want to figure it. Simply put, he was a valuable member of the rotation. And once you factor in his age and cost...VERY valuable. But that being said, Chapman to the rotation seems to be a foregone conclusion so Leake does seem to be the odd man out. But that certainly doesn't mean he goes to the bullpen to be put to sleep as a rarely used long man, and it also doesn't mean he has to be traded due to an "excess" of starting pitching. IMO it means that he needs to go to AAA and continue to start in order to stay on a consistent schedule as a starter. Chapman will NOT be able to pitch all season. Not a chance. Leake is the obvious replacement for those needed starts (and any other available starts to give the other 4 a needed breather). But that's only the aspect of this coming season. There's more to look at...the long term. After this season, Bronson's tenure is most likely done. Leake is the incredibly obvious replacement for Arroyo's role in the rotation. A softer tosser to break up the hard throwers, a control pitcher who's main weapons are off speed and breaking balls, a VERY solid defender and hitter. He is Bronson v2.0. That isn't something I want to trade away to solve a problem for one season.

So basically, in my opinion, the only pitchers we should even consider shopping are the minor league guys. I would prefer to hold onto Stephenson for sure. And one of Cingrani/Corcino would be advisable IMO too. If Cingrani looks destined for the pen, then trading him before that becomes readily apparent to opposing teams might be advisable. But I don't want to see them ditch the idea of him starting before he gets a real chance against AAA hitters. I'd prefer to see both C's starting in AAA all season long and then get september callups.

I just don't get the need/desire to trade away starting pitching because we brought in Redmond. And that's basically what we're saying here it seems. The kids aren't ready and Leake will be needed down the line. Hang onto them. Deal from other areas.

I think it's safe to see Redmond as an emergency starter, certainly the Reds should not plan on a major impact from him this year. That being said, Redmond can fill a rotation spot for a few weeks and give a team with a better offense and still solid defense a chance to win. He shouldn't be written off completely as a useless asset.

As for Corcino and Cingrani, I could see both making impacts next season. If both pitch well in Louisville and a starter goes down June or later, I could see the Reds calling up one or the other to fill in long-term. I would prefer that they get as much seasoning as possible in AAA, but I would have no problem with them getting a taste of the bigs if they are having considerable success in Louisville. I am certainly not prepared to say I would not like to see them start at all next year.

I believe some posters likely undervalue Leake, but some others like me do not undervalue Leake. I see him as a solid backend starter who has additional value because he can field his position and he is not an automatic out at the plate. Furthermore, Mike Leake is very cheap. Therefore, I agree Leake is very valuable, if the Royals or Marlins also think he is very valuable (both more cost conscious franchises than the Reds), then we may have a good trade partner.

You must trade value to get value.

I will admit I disliked Arroyo in 2011 and last off-season wanted to do anything to get rid of him. Well, Arroyo turned in a very solid 2012, and now I would not mind him being a part of the rotation in 2014 and beyond. Just because his contract is up, I am not sure that means he will be gone. He likes Cincinnati and his celeb status here. I am sure he would be open to returning, especially if the Reds have success in 2013.

Therefore, I hope you can see how the Reds could deal one or even two of Leake, Corcino and Cingrani and still have depth.

Leake rotting away in Louisville or the bullpen makes no sense to me. Leake has value right now as a starting pitcher. If you demote him to the bullpen or Louisville, you are killing his trade value.

What do all of you that want to hold onto all of our pitching plan on doing if everyone is healthy (like last year)? You don't want to keep both Redmond and Leake in Cincinnati as longmen, do you? If you do that, you lose at least one, if not two of Arredondo, LeCure, Simon or Hoover from the Cincinnati pen.

The Reds have too many good pitchers for too little open spots. The Reds should deal one (or two) now and fill our giant hole at clean-up and in left field.

_Sir_Charles_
11-28-2012, 01:36 PM
A good summation, I would add that Bronson Arroyo has 10/5 rights, so he is going no where, without approving it.

It also wouldn't save the reds any money either. Bronson has that clause in his contract that says if he gets traded, he gets all that deferred money right then and there.

_Sir_Charles_
11-28-2012, 01:53 PM
I think it's safe to see Redmond as an emergency starter, certainly the Reds should not plan on a major impact from him this year. That being said, Redmond can fill a rotation spot for a few weeks and give a team with a better offense and still solid defense a chance to win. He shouldn't be written off completely as a useless asset.

I wasn't writing him off as a useless asset. Just a Justin Lehr guy who is a solid AAA starter. But he shouldn't be in the rotation unless some serious injuries plague the rotation (numerous injuries).


As for Corcino and Cingrani, I could see both making impacts next season. If both pitch well in Louisville and a starter goes down June or later, I could see the Reds calling up one or the other to fill in long-term. I would prefer that they get as much seasoning as possible in AAA, but I would have no problem with them getting a taste of the bigs if they are having considerable success in Louisville. I am certainly not prepared to say I would not like to see them start at all next year.

I'd have no problem with them getting some starts next year. Not at all. But I don't want to have to depend on them. They're rookies and not heavily tested in the upper minors either. If they spend all of 2013 in AAA it might just be best for their long term development. And I'd also have no problem trading one (or both if the return is VERY nice).


I believe some posters likely undervalue Leake, but some others like me do not undervalue Leake. I see him as a solid backend starter who has additional value because he can field his position and he is not an automatic out at the plate. Furthermore, Mike Leake is very cheap. Therefore, I agree Leake is very valuable, if the Royals or Marlins also think he is very valuable (both more cost conscious franchises than the Reds), then we may have a good trade partner.

You must trade value to get value.

I'm sure that some team(s) would like to have him. But so would we. I agree that moving him to the pen kills his value and makes it harder to use him as a starter if needed. But I really don't think demoting him to AAA to make room for Chapman will hurt his trade value. But to be honest, that only matters if you're planning on trading him. I see him as a long term solution in this rotation.


I will admit I disliked Arroyo in 2011 and last off-season wanted to do anything to get rid of him. Well, Arroyo turned in a very solid 2012, and now I would not mind him being a part of the rotation in 2014 and beyond. Just because his contract is up, I am not sure that means he will be gone. He likes Cincinnati and his celeb status here. I am sure he would be open to returning, especially if the Reds have success in 2013.

This is a VERY valid point. I'd like the Reds to find out where he stands on this sooner rather than later. I'd have no problem with Bronson hanging around a few more years. But it has some serious repercussions to the young pitchers we have and I'd think Bronson's aware of this. Get everyone talking and keep everyone informed and you'll eliminate alot of confusion and frustration.


Therefore, I hope you can see how the Reds could deal one or even two of Leake, Corcino and Cingrani and still have depth.

I agree and I have always agreed with this. But the only way I deal Leake is if I know Bronson's returning or the return on the trade is VERY nice. Corcino/Cingrani are trade bait in my opinion. If we can hang onto one of them, great...but not a necessity. We don't NEED to trade any of them. And that's what my problem has been with these posts (not yours, just the general "trade a pitcher" posts). If the return is right, sure...but we don't HAVE to trade any of them.


Leake rotting away in Louisville or the bullpen makes no sense to me. Leake has value right now as a starting pitcher. If you demote him to the bullpen or Louisville, you are killing his trade value.

Disagree, as I noted above. Keep him out of the pen, but I've got ZERO problem with him in AAA for half the season. He can be yo-yo'd up and down as much as needed next season.


What do all of you that want to hold onto all of our pitching plan on doing if everyone is healthy (like last year)? You don't want to keep both Redmond and Leake in Cincinnati as longmen, do you? If you do that, you lose at least one, if not two of Arredondo, LeCure, Simon or Hoover from the Cincinnati pen.

I don't want to see either Leake or Redmond as long men at all. Simon/LeCure can fill that void easily enough. Keep Leake and Redmond starting...that's where their value lies.


The Reds have too many good pitchers for too little open spots. The Reds should deal one (or two) now and fill our giant hole at clean-up and in left field.

No problem with trading to fill needed holes. But pushing to make one of the people traded a starter (or two even) is the part I have a problem with. We could conceivably get our left fielder without trading any starters but rather position players and relievers or even lower-level starters. Or even signing a FA. I see no need to basically tell a guy to pack his bags...we'll find someone to trade him for soon enough. Seems to be working the problem from the wrong angle. Just my opinion.

mdccclxix
11-28-2012, 02:12 PM
Stanton is not available. Wil Myers is being talked about for Lester, who is our Cueto. Neither Bailey or Leake will be enough to hugely impact LF. You can start piling on prospects, sure. Not saying LF can't be upgraded, but I'd prefer Ludwick on a Broxton type deal, as I don't think the options you've suggested are really in the Reds range. We'll see, though.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 02:17 PM
We could conceivably get our left fielder without trading any starters but rather position players and relievers or even lower-level starters. Or even signing a FA. I see no need to basically tell a guy to pack his bags...we'll find someone to trade him for soon enough. Seems to be working the problem from the wrong angle. Just my opinion.

We seem to hold many similar opinions until we get to this point. As an aside, I agreed with your Matt Maloney comparison to Redmond, much more than Lehr. Both Maloney and Redmond can strike minor leaguers out, which Lehr could never do. Redmond and Maloney are guys who can win you a game with a good rest of the team in the bigs, Lehr cannot.

Anyway, back to the main point. What would you give to get an impact bat in left field that does not include a starting pitcher? What position players could you trade? Mesoraco while his value is at a four-year low? Hanigan when Mesoraco hasn't proved he can play everyday in the bigs? Certainly not Votto, Phillips, Frazier or Bruce, right? Cozart could have some value, but are you ready to roll with Didi every day? I'm not. You could trade Didi, but he is just a side piece and certainly not the centerpiece. Heisey, Paul and Stubbs have next to no value. You could trade Soto, but he is a throw in piece and not even a side piece. I don't think there is anything we could deal position player wise to help get a left field bat outside of Billy Hamilton. Billy could be a centerpiece, but both the Marlins and Royals would need much more to deal.

Furthermore, relievers have next to no value in trades. Let's remember we got Hoover for just Juan Francisco next year. I think Corcino, Cingrani and to a lesser extent, Lotzkar have value. However, Corcino + Cingrani + Lotzkar + position players/relievers still isn't enough for Myers or Stanton. Maybe if you include Billy Hamilton. I believe you would need to give up Leake + at least two of Corcino, Hamilton, Cingrani and Lotzkar to get the Royals/Marlins to consider a deal.

I metion Myers and Stanton frequently because they are not too expensive $ wise (Myers is in fact almost free) and would be under Reds' control for at least three years, which give them a lot of value. I don't want to deal away all of my pitching depth.

As for FA, if the Reds have money to sign Ludwick and still also upgrade CF, great. If not, we need to look to do something in the trade market.

It's not like I really want to see Leake off this team ASAP. I just think he has more value starting every fifth day for a team looking to rebuild than he does sitting in Louisville. If the Royals/Marlins like him and some of our minor leaguers enough, let's make a deal. If not, okay. I don't want Walt to give it all away for either of the two, but if a reasonable deal can be worked out. I would like to see Walt pull the trigger.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 02:20 PM
Stanton is not available. Wil Myers is being talked about for Lester, who is our Cueto. Neither Bailey or Leake will be enough to hugely impact LF. You can start piling on prospects, sure. Not saying LF can't be upgraded, but I'd prefer Ludwick on a Broxton type deal, as I don't think the options you've suggested are really in the Reds range. We'll see, though.

If the Reds can afford Ludwick, a plattoon partner for Stubbs and a lefty reliever, great. Let's hold onto our starting pitching. If we cannot afford all three, we need to look to pile on some prospects on top of Leake/Bailey to see if we can get a solid left fielder.

If Stanton is not available, cool, but I would like for Walt to at least see.

If Myers can fetch Lester, more power to the Royals. If Myers does not equal Lester and the Royals still want pitching, I think we should see if we have enough to get a deal done. If not, at least we tried. That's all I am trying to say.

Rojo
11-28-2012, 02:27 PM
If we trade Leake and Chapman fails, then we're only looking to replace a #5. Leake's a great #5, but a #5 nonetheless. Not a code red.

If we trade Leake, Chapman fails and another starter goes south, well, it probably wasn't our year to begin with and Leake probably wasn't going to fix it.

There a few teams -- KC, MN, AZ -- that would probably do well to add Leake, but may balk because short righties with middling stuff don't get the juices flowing.

mdccclxix
11-28-2012, 02:31 PM
If the Reds can afford Ludwick, a plattoon partner for Stubbs and a lefty reliever, great. Let's hold onto our starting pitching. If we cannot afford all three, we need to look to pile on some prospects on top of Leake/Bailey to see if we can get a solid left fielder.

If Stanton is not available, cool, but I would like for Walt to at least see.

If Myers can fetch Lester, more power to the Royals. If Myers does not equal Lester and the Royals still want pitching, I think we should see if we have enough to get a deal done. If not, at least we tried. That's all I am trying to say.

And honestly, I have no way of knowing what the Reds are targeting. They tend to rely on their scouts a lot and those guys don't send info about who they like to mlbtraderumors, lol. We'll see, I'd be thrilled to land Myers, who I feel would be the upper limit of their abilities to acquire, and I agree with your premise that the SP is our strength to deal from. I think Leake is closer to Travis Wood in value than he is Bailey, although he could certainly fetch some helpful talent. Just someone to hit RHP is all we need.

Benihana
11-28-2012, 02:32 PM
Stanton is not available. Wil Myers is being talked about for Lester, who is our Cueto. Neither Bailey or Leake will be enough to hugely impact LF. You can start piling on prospects, sure. Not saying LF can't be upgraded, but I'd prefer Ludwick on a Broxton type deal, as I don't think the options you've suggested are really in the Reds range. We'll see, though.

Disagree on Bailey. He is enough to fetch a very good LF, if the Reds are willing.

One could make an argument that he has every bit as much trade value as Lester.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 02:57 PM
If we trade Leake and Chapman fails, then we're only looking to replace a #5. Leake's a great #5, but a #5 nonetheless. Not a code red.

If we trade Leake, Chapman fails and another starter goes south, well, it probably wasn't our year to begin with and Leake probably wasn't going to fix it.

There a few teams -- KC, MN, AZ -- that would probably do well to add Leake, but may balk because short righties with middling stuff don't get the juices flowing.

If we trade Leake and Chapman fails, we will be looking to replace a #5. I agree with that. However, I am willing to give Chapman around 20 starts (or more) to figure out that Chapman can't start. By that point, Corcino or Cingrani could be ready to step into a low-pressure #5 role. That being said, I think there is less than a 10% chance that Chapman does not perform well enough to be a #5 big league starter.

Leake may not be a big name, but MN, KC, AZ and MIA need young, talented pitching which Leake fits the bill for. Actually, AZ fans will probably remember him kindly since he was a Golden Spike finalist in their state only three years ago.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 03:00 PM
I think Leake is closer to Travis Wood in value than he is Bailey, although he could certainly fetch some helpful talent. Just someone to hit RHP is all we need.

I would agree with this. Leake does have 4.0 fWAR at this point in his career, while Wood had only 3.3 fWAR when he was dealt. Still Leake has started three years in the bigs and Wood was only two years in when he was dealt. If Leake is being undervalued, I agree the Reds should not deal him. If he and a combination of minor leaguers is enough for a big bat in left field, I am a happy Reds' fan.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 03:36 PM
A good summation, I would add that Bronson Arroyo has 10/5 rights, so he is going no where, without approving it.

Yes, but Arroyo might approve a trade to a contender in a bigger market.

From Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, Cingrani, and Corcino, I'd guess that one or two will be traded this off-season.

Another possibility is Stephenson. Would hate to trade him. Could be necessary in a major deal.

Reds pitching depth is a major attribute. I don't think they have much to trade if they hold onto everyone from the group listed.

Benihana
11-28-2012, 05:12 PM
Yes, but Arroyo might approve a trade to a contender in a bigger market.

From Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, Cingrani, and Corcino, I'd guess that one or two will be traded this off-season.

Another possibility is Stephenson. Would hate to trade him. Could be necessary in a major deal.

Reds pitching depth is a major attribute. I don't think they have much to trade if they hold onto everyone from the group listed.

Would much rather trade Corcino or Cingrani than Stephenson. Stephenson's timeline works out perfectly within the organization, not to mention his ceiling appears to be significantly higher than any other pitcher the Reds have in the minors. I would only put him in a deal that has someone like Stanton, Myers, or Justin Upton coming back.

Otherwise, use Leake and Corcino or Cingrani as the bait.

Tadasimha
11-28-2012, 05:20 PM
A very out of the box thought: maybe the plan is to keep Leake as a 6th starter and run a six man rotation to keep Chapman's innings down until later in the season. If Chapman succeeds as a starter, the Reds wouldn't have to pull a Strasbourg and leave him off the roster due to some innings limit.

cinreds21
11-28-2012, 05:30 PM
Bailey for Josh Willingham would probably work. Minnesota is looking to improve its rotation and I think that would be a perfect fit. Maybe get the Twins to throw in Glen Perkins to add in a second lefty for the bullpen to go with Sean Marshall. Now, that does not solve your leadoff man problem, but it does give you a good middle of the order bat.

chicoruiz
11-28-2012, 05:37 PM
Bailey for Josh Willingham would probably work. Minnesota is looking to improve its rotation and I think that would be a perfect fit. Maybe get the Twins to throw in Glen Perkins to add in a second lefty for the bullpen to go with Sean Marshall.

Do this, snag Victorino (or Bernadina), and add a few non-roster invitees and that would pretty much take care of the offseason as far as I'm concerned...seems do-able.

Patrick Bateman
11-28-2012, 05:38 PM
I don't like Leake enough right now to trade a starter. Plus with injuries, I think having 6 is good. Put Leake in the bullpen or whatever.

cinreds21
11-28-2012, 05:39 PM
I mean, Mike Leake does have options left. It would be kindof a ******y thing to do, but it is a possibility.

Edd Roush
11-28-2012, 06:39 PM
Bailey for Josh Willingham would probably work. Minnesota is looking to improve its rotation and I think that would be a perfect fit. Maybe get the Twins to throw in Glen Perkins to add in a second lefty for the bullpen to go with Sean Marshall. Now, that does not solve your leadoff man problem, but it does give you a good middle of the order bat.

Josh Willingham would be a great short-term addition. He has been a very good hitter for the last five years. He would like be better than Myers for at least 2013, and if Stanton is off the table, Willingham may be one of the best available options. I just wonder when he is going to start to show signs of age. He will be 34 at the beginning of next year, and I don't know how long his prime will last and when he will start his decline. Either way, Willingham (and Glen Perkins) are great targets for the Reds.

HokieRed
11-28-2012, 06:44 PM
A very out of the box thought: maybe the plan is to keep Leake as a 6th starter and run a six man rotation to keep Chapman's innings down until later in the season. If Chapman succeeds as a starter, the Reds wouldn't have to pull a Strasbourg and leave him off the roster due to some innings limit.

If I'm the manager, I'm in serious rebellion against this idea. I have Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, and Chapman, and you want me to throw Leake instead of one of those guys every six days[?]

Vottomatic
11-28-2012, 07:07 PM
Meh. If I'm the Reds, I let trade proposals come to me and let the other teams overpay. The Reds have no reason to do anything at this point.

They signed Broxton to move Chapman to the rotation, hoping to improve the team. I actually think it weakens the team, slightly. Chapman is unproven as a starter and surely won't pitch a whole season as one. Broxton isn't Chapman, in terms of a Closer. So both positions took a hit.

The rest of the bullpen is most likely set with hopefully a healthy Masset, Marshall, Hoover, Arredondo, Simon(?), Ondrusek, and possibly Cingrani as a lefthanded specialist. Really not much different than last year other than a healthier Masset hopefully and Cingrani taking Bray's spot, and Bray really was hurt all season. Oops, forgot LeCure. He was key in the playoffs. Plenty of options to sort it all out.

Plenty of starting pitch options/depth unless someone gets traded.

Lineup is the same if they re-sign Ludwick.

I'd be fine standing pat if the above happened. I wouldn't mind seeing Hamilton, Cingrani, Corcino, Gregorius, and some of the A and AA guys progress this season, such as Stephenson, Lutz, etc. I think they could answer alot of questions in 2013.

Only if an opposing team is willing to knock our socks off with a trade proposal, would I consider it. No need to reach and overpay for something at this point.

I understand the win now mode. But I still see some solutions potentially headed our way, such as Hamilton in CF if he proves worthy.

Tadasimha
11-28-2012, 08:14 PM
A very out of the box thought: maybe the plan is to keep Leake as a 6th starter and run a six man rotation to keep Chapman's innings down until later in the season. If Chapman succeeds as a starter, the Reds wouldn't have to pull a Strasbourg and leave him off the roster due to some innings limit.


If I'm the manager, I'm in serious rebellion against this idea. I have Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, and Chapman, and you want me to throw Leake instead of one of those guys every six days[?]

To ensure that Chapman isn't over worked by the start of the post-season - why not?

Scrap Irony
11-28-2012, 08:39 PM
If you're worried about overworking Chapman, start Cingrani, Corcino, Redmond, or another AAAA lifer. Put the other guys on strict five day rotation and skip Chapman whenever it's needed.

You don't need Leake as an emergency starter when he could be packaged for a better OF option than Chris Heisey or Drew Stubbs.

I'd think Boston could be open to a blockbuster deal of Leake, Arredondo, Massett (to balance out the salaries), and the Reds' choice of Gregorius or Cozart for Jacoby Ellsbury and Bryce Brentz.

mth123
11-28-2012, 09:11 PM
I keep all 6. Some things to chew on:

1. All 5 starters made all their starts last season. IMO, that actually increases the risk that somebody will spend some time on the DL in 2013 (my money would be on Cueto as the one to miss time). Innings add-up over time.

2. Chapman isn't going to make 30 starts.

3. Villareal and Redmond aren't up to snuff IMO. Those are guys that bad teams would give starts to late in the year when they are out of the race and have dealt their mid-rotation free agents to be for some kids. I don't want them making a start with anything on the line.

4. Daniel Corcino needs a year in AAA. He'd currently be my 7th option, but I'd prefer he not appear on the roster until September.

5. The Reds need Cingrani in the bullpen.

Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman
Leake (Swingman)

Masset/Simon (Mop-up)
Cingrani (LMR)
Lecure (RMR)
Marshall (LHSU)
Hoover (RHSU)
Broxton (Closer)

I'd guess that Leake will make 15 starts or so. I'd be shocked if ends up making less than 10. Trade bait should be Arredondo, Ondrusek, Heisey, Lotzkar, Villareal, LaMarre, Vidal, etc.

Not only do I think the Reds should keep them all, I think they need to sign another vet they can stash at AAA to become the 7th option ahead of Corcino (similar to how they started the year with Jeff Francis in 2012). I'd give Aaron Cook a call for that job.

Next moves IMO

DFA Redmond and Negron. Sign Scott Rolen as a 300 PA 3B. Frazier becomes the answer in LF. Trade some combo of those guys for a lefty bat to share 3B with Rolen and another lefty bat to lead-off and share CF with Stubbs. They'd be ready to win with those moves IMO.

HokieRed
11-28-2012, 09:52 PM
To ensure that Chapman isn't over worked by the start of the post-season - why not?

Spotting Leake to maybe rest Chapman a bit is one thing; going with a 6 man rotation from the beginning of the year is quite another. It's simply a matter of getting your best arms on the mound as much as possible, and that means using Cueto, Bailey, Latos, and Arroyo every 5 days and Chapman--if the experiment works out--as often as possible.

Kc61
11-28-2012, 10:01 PM
I keep all 6. Some things to chew on:

1. All 5 starters made all their starts last season. IMO, that actually increases the risk that somebody will spend some time on the DL in 2013 (my money would be on Cueto as the one to miss time). Innings add-up over time.

2. Chapman isn't going to make 30 starts.

3. Villareal and Redmond aren't up to snuff IMO. Those are guys that bad teams would give starts to late in the year when they are out of the race and have dealt their mid-rotation free agents to be for some kids. I don't want them making a start with anything on the line.

4. Daniel Corcino needs a year in AAA. He'd currently be my 7th option, but I'd prefer he not appear on the roster until September.

5. The Reds need Cingrani in the bullpen.

Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman
Leake (Swingman)

Masset/Simon (Mop-up)
Cingrani (LMR)
Lecure (RMR)
Marshall (LHSU)
Hoover (RHSU)
Broxton (Closer)

I'd guess that Leake will make 15 starts or so. I'd be shocked if ends up making less than 10. Trade bait should be Arredondo, Ondrusek, Heisey, Lotzkar, Villareal, LaMarre, Vidal, etc.

Not only do I think the Reds should keep them all, I think they need to sign another vet they can stash at AAA to become the 7th option ahead of Corcino (similar to how they started the year with Jeff Francis in 2012). I'd give Aaron Cook a call for that job.

Next moves IMO

DFA Redmond and Negron. Sign Scott Rolen as a 300 PA 3B. Frazier becomes the answer in LF. Trade some combo of those guys for a lefty bat to share 3B with Rolen and another lefty bat to lead-off and share CF with Stubbs. They'd be ready to win with those moves IMO.

Problem here is your available trade bait. It will get you nothing of substance.

The Reds need to be willing to make more significant moves. Right now they have no left fielder, Stubbs/Heisey in CF, one lefty in the bullpen, and holes on the bench. At least the LF and CF are important positions with a need for good level talent.

You ain't fixing the holes by trading Villareal, Redmond, Lamar and Vidal. They won't bring real quality. Nor is it likely Reds are throwing much money at big free agents.

Realistically, the team will have to trade from quality pitching depth. This is their area of strength. Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, all are possibilities. Reds will have to add depth with pitchers like Cook, who you mention.

This team was very ordinary offensively last year, as you know. The additions on offense have to be good players who will cost either money, players, or both. Frankly, at this stage, I think Rolen for 300 at bats is very risky and probably does not advance the ball.

Pitching is important but the team has no leadoff hitter and no cleanup hitter right now and some meaningful effort has to be made to acquire them.

mth123
11-29-2012, 04:30 AM
Problem here is your available trade bait. It will get you nothing of substance.

The Reds need to be willing to make more significant moves. Right now they have no left fielder, Stubbs/Heisey in CF, one lefty in the bullpen, and holes on the bench. At least the LF and CF are important positions with a need for good level talent.

You ain't fixing the holes by trading Villareal, Redmond, Lamar and Vidal. They won't bring real quality. Nor is it likely Reds are throwing much money at big free agents.

Realistically, the team will have to trade from quality pitching depth. This is their area of strength. Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, all are possibilities. Reds will have to add depth with pitchers like Cook, who you mention.

This team was very ordinary offensively last year, as you know. The additions on offense have to be good players who will cost either money, players, or both. Frankly, at this stage, I think Rolen for 300 at bats is very risky and probably does not advance the ball.

Pitching is important but the team has no leadoff hitter and no cleanup hitter right now and some meaningful effort has to be made to acquire them.

Thing is, I don't think the Reds will get all that much more of substance for Leake. They'll likely have to take on a salary to acquire something of substance. The way I have it figured, the Reds are sitting with a 25 man roster that will cost about $95 Million or so as is right now. Simply adding Rolen and a couple of cheap part-time guys will probably push them over $100 Million. From listening to Walt's limited comments about Rolen, it seems there is a spot for him if he wants to play. I'd guess that will be with enough playing time that Frazier will need to spend a significant amount of time in LF to keep his bat in the line-up. If Rolen comes back, I just don't see them acquiring much more than a lefty bench power type for LF or maybe 3B. Somebody like Seth Smith or Wilson Betemit come to mind. Billy Hamilton is on the way in center. The Reds need a guy who can play some CF against RHP and still provide enough to stay in the mix in CF/LF if (or when) Hamilton arrives. Somebody like David Dejesus. I don't think they need to deal a starter to acquire any of that.

Honestly, the Reds have a big uncertainty in the rotation with Chapman and 4 other guys who are due to miss some time after a healthy season in 2012. I really think they need to keep Leake around. If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.

Kc61
11-29-2012, 07:49 AM
If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.

Looking at the Reds' roster, their minor league depth, their desire to keep Billy Hamilton (likely), I think they will have to give up a meaningful pitcher/pitching prospect in trades to get anything of value this off-season.

If it turns out that Corcino is worth more on the market than Leake, then that's a way to go. They may even decide to trade Bailey to upgrade the outfield, although that presumably would be a major deal, for a higher echelon outfielder.

It's not a matter of trading Leake, per se. It's just that I don't see them acquiring anyone of value for the outfield without parting with a pitcher or pitching prospect of value. That's where the Reds' trading depth lies.

As I've said elsewhere, I fully expect one or two of Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, Arroyo, or Bailey to be traded this off-season. Hopefully not Stephenson. To get a good return, I think that's the reality of the situation.

If they can get by trading Lotzkar and other lesser prospects, great, I just find it hard to believe that will be enough.

_Sir_Charles_
11-29-2012, 08:03 AM
Thing is, I don't think the Reds will get all that much more of substance for Leake. They'll likely have to take on a salary to acquire something of substance. The way I have it figured, the Reds are sitting with a 25 man roster that will cost about $95 Million or so as is right now. Simply adding Rolen and a couple of cheap part-time guys will probably push them over $100 Million. From listening to Walt's limited comments about Rolen, it seems there is a spot for him if he wants to play. I'd guess that will be with enough playing time that Frazier will need to spend a significant amount of time in LF to keep his bat in the line-up. If Rolen comes back, I just don't see them acquiring much more than a lefty bench power type for LF or maybe 3B. Somebody like Seth Smith or Wilson Betemit come to mind. Billy Hamilton is on the way in center. The Reds need a guy who can play some CF against RHP and still provide enough to stay in the mix in CF/LF if (or when) Hamilton arrives. Somebody like David Dejesus. I don't think they need to deal a starter to acquire any of that.

Honestly, the Reds have a big uncertainty in the rotation with Chapman and 4 other guys who are due to miss some time after a healthy season in 2012. I really think they need to keep Leake around. If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.

I'm not sure I agree with your players to target, but the rest I'm on board with.

My gut feeling tells me we'll sign Ludwick, extend a few players, bring Rolen back and that's it. I think we'll bide our time in center with Stubbs/Heisey and Phillips leading off. I think we'll fill the LH bullpen slot with Cingrani (although I'd prefer him stay a starter until it's clear he doesn't have it). Other than that...standing pat. Not my preference, but it's what I think will happen.

Benihana
11-29-2012, 08:37 AM
Looking at the Reds' roster, their minor league depth, their desire to keep Billy Hamilton (likely), I think they will have to give up a meaningful pitcher/pitching prospect in trades to get anything of value this off-season.

If it turns out that Corcino is worth more on the market than Leake, then that's a way to go. They may even decide to trade Bailey to upgrade the outfield, although that presumably would be a major deal, for a higher echelon outfielder.

It's not a matter of trading Leake, per se. It's just that I don't see them acquiring anyone of value for the outfield without parting with a pitcher or pitching prospect of value. That's where the Reds' trading depth lies.

As I've said elsewhere, I fully expect one or two of Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, Arroyo, or Bailey to be traded this off-season. Hopefully not Stephenson. To get a good return, I think that's the reality of the situation.

If they can get by trading Lotzkar and other lesser prospects, great, I just find it hard to believe that will be enough.

Completely agree with this.

I would guess one of the SS (likely DiDi) is/will be the other half of the bait.

lollipopcurve
11-29-2012, 08:52 AM
I would guess one of the SS (likely DiDi) is/will be the other half of the bait.

I agree. It'll be either a starter, a SS, or both. I think the Twins are best match, and I could see them trying to bring back Span or Willingham (preferably Willingham, IMO, who will cost more).

mdccclxix
11-29-2012, 08:56 AM
Thing is, I don't think the Reds will get all that much more of substance for Leake. They'll likely have to take on a salary to acquire something of substance. The way I have it figured, the Reds are sitting with a 25 man roster that will cost about $95 Million or so as is right now. Simply adding Rolen and a couple of cheap part-time guys will probably push them over $100 Million. From listening to Walt's limited comments about Rolen, it seems there is a spot for him if he wants to play. I'd guess that will be with enough playing time that Frazier will need to spend a significant amount of time in LF to keep his bat in the line-up. If Rolen comes back, I just don't see them acquiring much more than a lefty bench power type for LF or maybe 3B. Somebody like Seth Smith or Wilson Betemit come to mind. Billy Hamilton is on the way in center. The Reds need a guy who can play some CF against RHP and still provide enough to stay in the mix in CF/LF if (or when) Hamilton arrives. Somebody like David Dejesus. I don't think they need to deal a starter to acquire any of that.

Honestly, the Reds have a big uncertainty in the rotation with Chapman and 4 other guys who are due to miss some time after a healthy season in 2012. I really think they need to keep Leake around. If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.

I agree with you. Keep the starting depth, as luck will run out. I believe Texas was a team in 2011 that had a similar run of luck and ran out of it in 2012.

I think the list you mentioned of Lotzkar, Vidal, Corcino, Lamarre, Heisey, AND Leake would all cobble together a really nice player in return. The Marshall trade will tell us as much. He was the best LHRP in baseball and we got him for Wood, Sappelt and Torreyes.

FWIW, in your plan I would also look at acquiring a LHRP (again, but for less this time) to keep Cingrani in the rotation in AAA where some time there to work on his secondary stuff is needed. Like Chapman, we have to know if he can do it.

So a platoon 3b, a LHRP, and/or a platoon CF would all be nice. And there are enough pieces to get them all. I think Leake is much more valuable than Wood, for example.

edit: oops, I didn't mean to include Leake in trades, my point was supposed to be he is valuable enough to bring some substance back, but probably not for the rotation, which should be kept strong.

Kc61
11-29-2012, 10:11 AM
I agree. It'll be either a starter, a SS, or both. I think the Twins are best match, and I could see them trying to bring back Span or Willingham (preferably Willingham, IMO, who will cost more).

Didi and Corcino (or Cingrani) could be the mainstays of a very nice package. Maybe add in Heisey and, say, a Vidal.

I think you could get quality back for such a package.

And I agree that Willingham would be a good addition to the Reds. Maybe Reds also get somebody to help fill a bench spot in such a deal, and/or a prospect from the lower minor leagues.

bellhead
11-29-2012, 10:12 AM
Trade for Meyers, offer Leake and Stubbs plus one of Corcino or Cingrani...
Sign Victorino, bring back Rolen giving Meyers, Frazier, and Rolen 2 spots for 3 players...

What this does is give the Reds a lot of payroll flexibility into the future and allows them to lock up Latos, Baily, and Cueto for the next 5 to 7 years... Not the best starting trio in the major, but the top 5... What would be the cost on this?

Extend Bruce with the Meyers savings....He is just now coming into his own and will be a 30/100 guy for the next 6 to 8 years...

Hamilton will be the Cf in 2014 and will be under control along with Meyers...

lollipopcurve
11-29-2012, 11:32 AM
Didi and Corcino (or Cingrani) could be the mainstays of a very nice package. Maybe add in Heisey and, say, a Vidal.


Agreed. Personally, I'd rather they trade Cozart because I think Didi's upside is high (and I think he's ready to play in the bigs right now, supplying a very good glove and developing bat). But I suspect any trading partner would look at it like that too. On the pitching prospects side, I'd rather they deal Corcino than Cingrani. Really like Cingrani.

mdccclxix
11-29-2012, 12:08 PM
For an example of what players were ranked before they were traded or lost their prospect status:

Sickels
Travis Wood C+ 2010
Dave Sappelt C+ 2012
Ronald Torreyes C+ 2012
= Sean Marshall

Current Reds trade bait:
Mike Leake B/B+ 2010
Chris Heisey B 2010

Daniel Corcino B 2012
Zach Cozart B- 2012
Tony Cingrani B- 2012
Didi Gregorious C+ 2012
Henry Rodriguez C+ 2012
Neftali Soto C+ 2012
David Vidal C+ 2012

These rankings are from last year, so I expect some changes.

Leaving out Frazier, Hamilton, Stephanson and Mesoraco for obvious reasons.

Another trade to reference would be Sulbaran (C+) and Donnie Joseph (NR) for Broxton. Of course Joseph played back up to a C in all likelihood last season.

So it appears to me the Reds have plenty to trade without giving up Leake or Bailey. It's a matter, in the end, of finding a team that wants what you have. I look at the mega deals with the Marlins, Jays, Sox and Dodgers, I don't know if a single 1-3 organizationally ranked prospect was traded. This leaves hope the Reds can land a big enough fish for the OF. But I definitely like their chances at finding a LHRP that can prevent Cingrani from going to the pen before we know if he can get AAA hitters out as a starter.

Found this interesting from 2010: Josh Fellhauer, OF, Grade C+: David DeJesus type. I'd like to see him make the 5th OF spot to platoon with Heisey in LF if we can't sign Ludwick.

Kc61
11-29-2012, 03:05 PM
For an example of what players were ranked before they were traded or lost their prospect status:

Sickels
Travis Wood C+ 2010
Dave Sappelt C+ 2012
Ronald Torreyes C+ 2012
= Sean Marshall

Current Reds trade bait:
Mike Leake B/B+ 2010
Chris Heisey B 2010

Daniel Corcino B 2012
Zach Cozart B- 2012
Tony Cingrani B- 2012
Didi Gregorious C+ 2012
Henry Rodriguez C+ 2012
Neftali Soto C+ 2012
David Vidal C+ 2012

These rankings are from last year, so I expect some changes.

Leaving out Frazier, Hamilton, Stephanson and Mesoraco for obvious reasons.

Another trade to reference would be Sulbaran (C+) and Donnie Joseph (NR) for Broxton. Of course Joseph played back up to a C in all likelihood last season.

So it appears to me the Reds have plenty to trade without giving up Leake or Bailey. It's a matter, in the end, of finding a team that wants what you have. .

Referencing trades for Marshall and Broxton are not very instructive IMO. Relief pitchers usually don't bring back as much as a regular position player does.
Broxton was an impending free agent with two months left on his contract.

These are not good comparisons for a trade that would bring the Reds a starting level left fielder or CF for 2013 IMO.

REDREAD
11-29-2012, 04:25 PM
DFA Redmond and Negron. Sign Scott Rolen as a 300 PA 3B. Frazier becomes the answer in LF. Trade some combo of those guys for a lefty bat to share 3B with Rolen and another lefty bat to lead-off and share CF with Stubbs. They'd be ready to win with those moves IMO.

I like that idea.
Really, if Rolen can play 1/2 season, they'd only need a part time 3b or LF (Frazier could play 3b when Rolen sits).
The only downside is that our backup SS (likely a weak player) would get more ABs than Valdez, since Rolen can't fill in at 2b like Cairo could. But I could live with that.

The only minor disagreement is that I don't see as much urgency to upgrade CF. Sure, it would be nice, but Billy H is going to get a lot of ABs to sink or swim, probably starting next year. I would not expend a lot of resources on a CF unless we really can't find away to add a LF/3b type.

mdccclxix
11-29-2012, 04:45 PM
Referencing trades for Marshall and Broxton are not very instructive IMO. Relief pitchers usually don't bring back as much as a regular position player does.
Broxton was an impending free agent with two months left on his contract.

These are not good comparisons for a trade that would bring the Reds a starting level left fielder or CF for 2013 IMO.

Right, but you can see my point that it didn't take much to acquire these players. The trade bait on the table, which doesn't include Frazier, Hamilton, Stephanson and Mesoraco, is all rated higher than the C+ style prospect that I sited for the relievers. Don't discount Sean Marshall either, btw, dude was the most valuable reliever in baseball the 2-3 years prior to 2012. So, I think a quality LF, CF, or 3b platoon guy to fill the bench, and a very good LHRP could be in order if the Reds find the right partner. You could shoot higher, though, with the current list of prospects.

Kc61
11-29-2012, 05:22 PM
Right, but you can see my point that it didn't take much to acquire these players. The trade bait on the table, which doesn't include Frazier, Hamilton, Stephanson and Mesoraco, is all rated higher than the C+ style prospect that I sited for the relievers. Don't discount Sean Marshall either, btw, dude was the most valuable reliever in baseball the 2-3 years prior to 2012. So, I think a quality LF, CF, or 3b platoon guy to fill the bench, and a very good LHRP could be in order if the Reds find the right partner. You could shoot higher, though, with the current list of prospects.

We'll see. You know, Marshall was the right situation - Cubs rebuilding, didn't want to pay him, was an impending free agent on the last year of contract.

I think the answer to all this may be Ludwick. I could see the Reds adding a short term CFer without giving up much. I happen to think they may sign Victorino, although I'm not a huge fan of such a move.

I also could see the Reds filling the bench and bullpen and getting some pitching depth on the cheap.

But if Ludwick doesn't re-sign, I think getting a LF of quality who can hit will require a more significant package. There's nobody in the pipeline for the Reds, they will need a real hitter out there, and I think we are talking a serious package involving guys like Corcino, Gregorius or guys of equivalent value.

mdccclxix
11-29-2012, 05:36 PM
We'll see. You know, Marshall was the right situation - Cubs rebuilding, didn't want to pay him, was an impending free agent on the last year of contract.

I think the answer to all this may be Ludwick. I could see the Reds adding a short term CFer without giving up much. I happen to think they may sign Victorino, although I'm not a huge fan of such a move.

I also could see the Reds filling the bench and bullpen and getting some pitching depth on the cheap.

But if Ludwick doesn't re-sign, I think getting a LF of quality who can hit will require a more significant package. There's nobody in the pipeline for the Reds, they will need a real hitter out there, and I think we are talking a serious package involving guys like Corcino, Gregorius or guys of equivalent value.

I guess what's encouraging is the number of players the Reds could offer to suit another team. Take a look at Alex Meyer's 2012 report from Sickels:


4) Alex Meyer, RHP, Grade B: I respect his upside as a guy with two dominating pitches, but his command is still a work in progress, and such tall pitchers often struggle to keep their mechanics in line. Could be a superior starter, a closer, or a failure.

Vottomatic
11-29-2012, 07:27 PM
Has Youkilis been signed yet?