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View Full Version : Braves To Sign B.J. Upton



Gallen5862
11-28-2012, 07:13 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Braves To Sign B.J. Upton
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 28 at 4:49pm CST]
4:49pm: It's a five-year, $75.25MM contract, Rosenthal reports (on Twitter).

Upton declined a qualifying offer from the Rays, which means the Rays are now eligible to obtain a top pick in the 2013 draft. The Braves will surrender their first round draft pick to sign Upton, though that selection won't go directly to Tampa Bay.

jhu1321
11-28-2012, 07:54 PM
Overpay IMO.

SidneySlicker
11-28-2012, 08:21 PM
Overpay IMO.

Agreed

Benihana
11-28-2012, 08:39 PM
Good pass by the Reds.

dougdirt
11-28-2012, 09:21 PM
I still can't believe this. The guy has plenty of potential.... but they just gave $75,000,000 to a guy who had a SUB .300 OBP last year. That is mind boggling.

hebroncougar
11-28-2012, 10:03 PM
I'd say the Votto contract look pretty darn solid right now.

RedsManRick
11-28-2012, 10:03 PM
He's average 4 wins a season for the last 6 years. But yeah, the drop in his BB rate last year is reason for concern.

cincrazy
11-28-2012, 10:11 PM
Holy crap that's a lot of money. I don't even know if I'd give his brother that kind of money (yet...) let alone him. Can't walk anymore. Strikes out a ton. Isn't exactly known for his hustle and all-in-for-the-team attitude. No thanks.

mth123
11-28-2012, 10:32 PM
I wouldn't pay half that. $30 Million over 5 years would sound about right for him (in an expensive market). This year's Chone Figgins IMO.

I think his defense is overblown as well.

vic715
11-28-2012, 10:47 PM
The money is getting out of hand.Where is it all coming from and how much longer can this keep up?I remember the owners crying broke in the 80's before anyone was making more than 2 million.I mean how can a 4th outfielder like Jonny Gomes get 5 mil a year?Mind mind boggling.

Superdude
11-29-2012, 12:03 AM
I'd say the Votto contract look pretty darn solid right now.

Seriously. I don't know if this is TV related or what, but the contracts being thrown around this offseason would've been laughed at a few years ago. Poor Joey might've left some money on the table. :D

kaldaniels
11-29-2012, 12:12 AM
Yet my blurb linking to the ESPN insider article says Keith Law says the Braves are buying low on Upton.

kaldaniels
11-29-2012, 12:13 AM
The money is getting out of hand.Where is it all coming from and how much longer can this keep up?I remember the owners crying broke in the 80's before anyone was making more than 2 million.I mean how can a 4th outfielder like Jonny Gomes get 5 mil a year?Mind mind boggling.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_maru38YqeR1qijj7bo1_400.jpg

Tom Servo
11-29-2012, 12:42 AM
Yeah, it seems as though free agency is on it's way to again reaching the heights of the mid 00's, if not higher. Definitely glad to have Votto locked up now.

dougdirt
11-29-2012, 12:49 AM
Seriously. I don't know if this is TV related or what, but the contracts being thrown around this offseason would've been laughed at a few years ago. Poor Joey might've left some money on the table. :D

You think Votto left money on the table..... did you see how little money Evan Longoria just signed for his extension? I know that he has money for his family for generations with what he signed, but he probably could have gotten 50% more.

M2
11-29-2012, 12:50 AM
Upton will test the theory that things just kind of work out for the Braves regardless of whether they should.

WVPacman
11-29-2012, 12:58 AM
the rich just keep getting richer!!

gilpdawg
11-29-2012, 03:07 AM
For that cash they can have him. One of the most over-rated guys in the league in my view.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

RedsBaron
11-29-2012, 08:20 AM
You think Votto left money on the table..... did you see how little money Evan Longoria just signed for his extension? I know that he has money for his family for generations with what he signed, but he probably could have gotten 50% more.

Yeah, I had the same thought when I saw what Longoria signed for. I was shocked he accepted so much less than he could have probably obtained later if he went to free agency.

mdccclxix
11-29-2012, 10:08 AM
Some teams and players are better/worse at bargining or more or less obsessed with money. Sometimes its the number of years. Sometimes its about getting the biggest contract ever as a sign of superiority. Sometimes its about comfort with the team. Sometimes its about winning. Closer to home. Desperation. Wild hatched schemes. Out bidding a rival team. A pushy agent. A pending divorce. Who knows! But the Reds just got a good deal from Broxton, so I think to each their own.

RedEye
11-29-2012, 10:33 AM
Isn't Drew Stubbs a very similar player? And, if so, shouldn't he be valuable trade bait?

mdccclxix
11-29-2012, 11:00 AM
Isn't Drew Stubbs a very similar player? And, if so, shouldn't he be valuable trade bait?

Stubbs is sliding off a cliff it looks like. Upton did just hit a bunch of HR, which is all I can see that's better about him. Defensively, I'd take Stubbs each time.

RedFanAlways1966
11-29-2012, 01:31 PM
Comment from Rowland's Office (a RZ type of site for Braves fans)... "the most expensive B.J. in history".

_Sir_Charles_
11-29-2012, 01:33 PM
Okay, now THAT'S funny. :O)

RedsManRick
11-29-2012, 02:07 PM
Stubbs is sliding off a cliff it looks like. Upton did just hit a bunch of HR, which is all I can see that's better about him. Defensively, I'd take Stubbs each time.

They are the same age and have a very similar skill set, but there are key differences between them in terms of performance:

- Upton walks a little more and strikes out a little less (enough in combination to be a reasonably significant difference)
- Upton has never relied on a high BABIP. Stubbs relies on a high BABIP to keep his average & OBP in the acceptable range. Think of BABIP as the third leg on the OBP stool along with walk and strikeout rates. Upton's stool is balanced; Stubbs' isn't.
- Stubbs' plus power (ISO) basically disappeared in 2010 & 2011. Upton has consistently hit for plus power. On a not unrelated note, Stubbs has turned in to an extreme ground ball hitter.



STUBBS
Age PA BB% K% ISO BABIP GB/FB LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ HR SB
2010 25 583 9% 29% .189 .330 1.09 16% .255 .329 .444 .338 105 22 30
2011 26 681 9% 30% .121 .343 1.42 20% .243 .321 .364 .308 90 15 40
2012 27 544 8% 31% .120 .290 1.53 15% .213 .277 .333 .271 64 14 30

UPTON
Age PA BB% K% ISO BABIP GB/FB LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ HR SB
2010 25 610 11% 27% .187 .304 0.91 17% .237 .322 .424 .328 107 18 42
2011 26 640 11% 25% .186 .298 1.00 18% .243 .331 .429 .333 113 23 36
2012 27 633 7% 27% .208 .294 0.98 19% .246 .298 .454 .323 107 28 31

In short, I think they are extremely similar players. However, the Reds, terrified of Stubbs' strikeout rate and hoping to boost his AVG/OBP, have pushed him to become more aggressive and ground-ball oriented. In my judgment, this was a poor decision, because it didn't fundamentally change his skill set, it just made less efficient use of it. He sacrificed a big part of his power, hurting his BABIP (BABIP is driven by hard contact as much, if not moreso than, speed) while adding pressure/stress. In other words, we shouldn't confuse Stubbs' production with his skill set. They're obviously related, but I think his production is being hampered by an approach that doesn't make good use of his skills. His speed is awesome, but, like Upton (and most hitters) his power is a much bigger driver of his production at the plate

By contrast, the Rays have let Upton do what comes naturally to him. The big question, in my mind, is what happened to his walk rate in 2012? Everything else remained the same, so how did he lose 1/3 of his walks? I'd offer a theory, but I haven't really followed him that closely.

I hypothesize that if Sutbbs he were to go back to his previous approach, his power production would come back, boosting both his BABIP and ISO. However, at this point, that may be impossible as a Red. He knows that they want/expect him to be more contact oriented and I'm not sure that can be undone. However, if the Reds were to trade Stubbs, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him put up numbers comparable to Upton moving forward.

mdccclxix
11-29-2012, 02:24 PM
I think they had one similar season, but I don't think they are now similar. I don't remember the Reds saying anything about him having to change his style. They've said they don't mind the strike outs that much. The only thing I think they wanted him to work on was bunting, but I don't know for sure they have dragged him down into this pit. 1200 at bats is a long slow hell ride to be forcing a guy into an approach that isn't working. I think he's just lost and loosing time.

RedsManRick
11-29-2012, 02:35 PM
I think they had one similar season, but I don't think they are now similar. I don't remember the Reds saying anything about him having to change his style. They've said they don't mind the strike outs that much. The only thing I think they wanted him to work on was bunting, but I don't know for sure they have dragged him down into this pit. 1200 at bats is a long slow hell ride to be forcing a guy into an approach that isn't working. I think he's just lost and loosing time.

I don't know how explicit it was from management vs. Stubbs simply coming to the conclusion on his own, but it is undeniable that he started to hit many more grounders in 2011. There was certainly plenty of talk about wanting Stubbs to take advantage of his speed. Again, I don't know if that ever took the form of a dictate, but I don't think its a coincidence either.

So taking the Reds management out of it, I think Sutbbs would produce more like Upton if he prioritized driving the ball over finding ways to make use of his legs.

REDREAD
11-29-2012, 02:50 PM
Comment from Rowland's Office (a RZ type of site for Braves fans)... "the most expensive B.J. in history".

:laugh: That joke alone was worth 75 million.

REDREAD
11-29-2012, 02:54 PM
I think they had one similar season, but I don't think they are now similar. I don't remember the Reds saying anything about him having to change his style. They've said they don't mind the strike outs that much. The only thing I think they wanted him to work on was bunting, but I don't know for sure they have dragged him down into this pit. 1200 at bats is a long slow hell ride to be forcing a guy into an approach that isn't working. I think he's just lost and loosing time.

I think I have to agree. I've had more faith in Stubbs than most posters, but I think it's more complicated than the Reds trying to force him to be a leadoff guy.
I think the league adjusted to him.
Stubbs had that great surge at the end of 2010, and has had flashes occasionally for a couple of days, but I think the league has figured him out.
That said, Stubbs is supposedly working with a personal batting coach over the winter.. Maybe he'll be able to adjust over the winter.. I'm sure he and the Reds know the weaknesses to address.

LegallyMinded
11-29-2012, 03:02 PM
Isn't Drew Stubbs a very similar player? And, if so, shouldn't he be valuable trade bait?

I think one of the main differences is the success Upton had at an early age. In 2007 and 2008, while Stubbs was still in the minors, Upton put up 4.5 and 5.0-WAR seasons. People look at that and think if he was that good, that young, he could be a superstar as he comes into his prime.

Granted, I don't know if that line of thinking is really reasonable. (I know I wouldn't want the Reds FO evaluating players based on what they did 4-5 years ago.) Nonetheless, I think that's the perception, and that gives Upton over Stubbs when comparing their value.

mdccclxix
11-29-2012, 03:06 PM
I think I have to agree. I've had more faith in Stubbs than most players, but I think it's more complicated than the Reds trying to force him to be a leadoff guy.
I think the league adjusted to him.
Stubbs had that great surge at the end of 2010, and has had flashes occasionally for a couple of days, but I think the league has figured him out.
That said, Stubbs is supposedly working with a personal batting coach over the winter.. Maybe he'll be able to adjust over the winter.. I'm sure he and the Reds know the weaknesses to address.

It always seemed like whatever plan he had a the plate was foiled each time. He's thinking 1st pitch slider, watches a meatball down the middle, 0-1. From there its goodnight. Swinging first pitch, it's in the dirt 2 feet away. Oy.

Tom Servo
08-26-2014, 05:50 PM
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that the Braves will try to trade B.J. Upton this winter.


You wanna talk about bad contracts, the Braves have paid $25,900,000 to Upton thus far for an almost unfathomably bad .195/.275/.308/.583 line, and he is still owed nearly $50 million over the next 3 years.

mdccclxix
08-26-2014, 05:58 PM
Should give anyone rooting for any team that two massively bad contracts (Upton, Uggla) doesn't have to sink a teams future.

KronoRed
08-26-2014, 07:41 PM
I'm sure the angels will take him.

camisadelgolf
08-26-2014, 10:10 PM
I don't know how explicit it was from management vs. Stubbs simply coming to the conclusion on his own, but it is undeniable that he started to hit many more grounders in 2011. There was certainly plenty of talk about wanting Stubbs to take advantage of his speed. Again, I don't know if that ever took the form of a dictate, but I don't think its a coincidence either.

So taking the Reds management out of it, I think Sutbbs would produce more like Upton if he prioritized driving the ball over finding ways to make use of his legs.
I just wanted to point out that Rick hit the nail on the head with this one. Stubbs still has his flaws, but he's driving the ball better than ever and having the best season of his career.

Always Red
08-26-2014, 10:19 PM
I just wanted to point out that Rick hit the nail on the head with this one. Stubbs still has his flaws, but he's driving the ball better than ever and having the best season of his career.

Totally Coors Field driven, check this out:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=stubbdr01&year=2014&t=b#hmvis

Now, I like Drew Stubbs, so good for him. Hope he can find a way to stay with the Rockies, for the sake of his stats.