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View Full Version : Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?



The Voice of IH
11-30-2012, 03:02 AM
I have been in a tough twitter negotiations, and I think I have made a deal with an informed Indians fan that would send Shin-Soo Choo to Cincinnati.

We would be giving up Tony Cingrani, Chris Heisey, a PTBNL (from low minor leagues) and possibly Mike Leake (though he is not apart of the original deal, and would only be given up if the Indians got something better from somewhere else).

I would probably do this. Lets assume, for this exercise, that Choo is only a Red for a year.

Remember that Choo bats lead-off, can play left field, and has an extremely high On Base Percentage.

If the answer is no, where would you steer the negotiations? If the answer is yes, why do you like it? and Do you think a trade like this is realistic IRL.

This was just a little fun that I sprung on him lol.

*BaseClogger*
11-30-2012, 03:38 AM
So is Mike Leake in this proposal or not?

RedlegJake
11-30-2012, 09:36 AM
Do that deal all day long if Leakes not in it

Edd Roush
11-30-2012, 09:51 AM
Choo is a stud. I would definitely do Cingrani, Heisey and a lower level PTBNL for him. If you throw Leake in, I think we are talking about the Reds' overpaying, but if that is what it took to beat another offer, I would probably do it as long as the PTBNL was not a top 15 prospect.

Tadasimha
11-30-2012, 09:55 AM
Either Leake or Cingrani but not both. That's an over pay at that point.

redsmetz
11-30-2012, 10:05 AM
Are you writing for Redlegs Review these days?

http://www.redlegsreview.com/2012/11/shin-soo-choo-fit-in-cincinnati.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheRedlegsReview+%28The+Redle gs+Review%29

The Voice of IH
11-30-2012, 10:21 AM
So is Mike Leake in this proposal or not?

He is on the table.

_Sir_Charles_
11-30-2012, 10:24 AM
I've been pushing to acquire Choo since last off season. No way do I include Leake, but I'd certainly be willing to add pieces to the deal. And I'd definitely have my focus be on an extension.

lollipopcurve
11-30-2012, 10:29 AM
And I'd definitely have my focus be on an extension.

Boras client, one year from hitting the market. Not going to happen.

The Voice of IH
11-30-2012, 10:30 AM
I've been pushing to acquire Choo since last off season. No way do I include Leake, but I'd certainly be willing to add pieces to the deal. And I'd definitely have my focus be on an extension.

And that is something to think about too.

I'm sure another name would help push the Reds offer over others. Perhaps you don't need Leake just to beat out another team. The core deal is the three listed above.

_Sir_Charles_
11-30-2012, 10:45 AM
Boras client, one year from hitting the market. Not going to happen.

We've said that before about an extension not going to happen. There's alot to be said about playing for a contender. I think we're all familiar with Boras' MO, but he's not immune to signing deals prior to FA. Not at all.

PuffyPig
11-30-2012, 10:48 AM
Too much for one year. We can't give up 2 of our 3 starting depth in one trade for a one year rental.

The Voice of IH
11-30-2012, 10:49 AM
Too much for one year. We can't give up 2 of our 3 starting depth in one trade for a one year rental.

But the rental makes you an instant contender/favorite to win the world series.

Kc61
11-30-2012, 10:59 AM
Walt has a way of re-signing his one-year rental guys.

If the Reds could keep Corcino and Stephenson, and keep both shortstops, and have the working outlines of a possible extension with Choo, this is attractive.

It's basically Leake and Cingrani for Choo. I would not dismiss such an idea.

REDREAD
11-30-2012, 11:10 AM
I really like Choo, but Leake and Cingrani is just too much for a one year rental.

I'd roll the dice and give in to whatever salary demands Ludwick wants before that.

There's plenty of decent LF that could be had for less..
Another thing is according to baseball reference, he has a pending arb hearing on this year's salary, which may be quite expensive.

Patrick Bateman
11-30-2012, 11:32 AM
But the rental makes you an instant contender/favorite to win the world series.

Well we are already pretty close to that anyways. For the marginal upgrade of increasing our chances in the world series so minimally seems like it would be high, and would leave our rotation depth very thin which could this year anyways.

Kc61
11-30-2012, 11:32 AM
I really like Choo, but Leake and Cingrani is just too much for a one year rental.

I'd roll the dice and give in to whatever salary demands Ludwick wants before that.

There's plenty of decent LF that could be had for less..
Another thing is according to baseball reference, he has a pending arb hearing on this year's salary, which may be quite expensive.

I respect your view, but I was kind of startled by the reference to a "decent LF."

We're trying to win a World Series here. Let the Pirates go for "decent" starting players.

To read this board, you would think the primary need on the Reds is a sixth and seventh starting pitcher.

The Reds cannot get on base. Their team OBP stinks. They do not hit righties well. They are overly right handed in their lineup. These problems plagued them in 2011 and 2012.

Choo is a wonderful hitter who would dramatically improve these deficient areas. He has a lifetime .381 OBP. In 2058 plate appearances lifetime against RHP his OBP is .400 even. That's a .400 OBP LIFETIME against RHP.

If the Reds could get this guy, with the possibility of re-signing him, for Cingrani and Leake, I would jump on it.

Pitching depth is great, but can you imagine this offense with Choo hitting somewhere in front of Joey Votto? Teams would fear pitching a righty.

And you still have Phillips and Frazier to spearhead the attack v. lefties. And maybe then you keep Stubbs to also help against lefties.

The only question is re-signability in my mind.

_Sir_Charles_
11-30-2012, 11:43 AM
Agreed. Price is the really the only obstacle here. I think it can get done without dealing both Leake & Cingrani though. Considering it's only a one year player, the cost shouldn't be THAT great whoever the player is. Whether we can extend him or not shouldn't affect what we deal to the Indians I think. (it probably will, but it shouldn't IMO).

Simply put, Choo is exactly what this club needs...in many, MANY facets.

Wonderful Monds
11-30-2012, 11:50 AM
I would do that trade and I don't think I would let Mike Leake be a deal breaker.

If you need starting depth, there are free agents available cheaply who could approximate what Mike Leake does.

REDREAD
11-30-2012, 11:58 AM
Choo is a wonderful hitter who would dramatically improve these deficient areas. He has a lifetime .381 OBP. In 2058 plate appearances lifetime against RHP his OBP is .400 even. That's a .400 OBP LIFETIME against RHP.

If the Reds could get this guy, with the possibility of re-signing him, for Cingrani and Leake, I would jump on it.
.


Choo is an impact player. No doubt about it.
If he was signed for more than 1 year, I think I would be more inclined to pull the trigger. There's the Boras factor, I don't think he will be an easy extension.

I hear what you're saying about the 6th and 7th starter being less important, but I think the Reds are in a somewhat unique situation here with the Chapman starting experiment.. I have no qualms with trading Cingrani and other prospects, but there's a good chance we'll need Leake to win the division more than an increase in OBP in the lineup.. Honestly, Redmond and Cingrani are not ML starters at this point.

Decent LF that could be had for less pain: Ludwick, maybe Corey Hart, heck maybe even Sorianno if his ankles are ok and the Cubs are still willing to eat payroll.. Maybe Cody Ross.. Now these guys aren't as good as Choo, but wouldn't cost Leake + Cingrani..

I guess I'd only trade Leake for a 2-3 year affordable solution in a position of need.

Kc61
11-30-2012, 12:20 PM
Choo is an impact player. No doubt about it.
If he was signed for more than 1 year, I think I would be more inclined to pull the trigger. There's the Boras factor, I don't think he will be an easy extension.

I hear what you're saying about the 6th and 7th starter being less important, but I think the Reds are in a somewhat unique situation here with the Chapman starting experiment.. I have no qualms with trading Cingrani and other prospects, but there's a good chance we'll need Leake to win the division more than an increase in OBP in the lineup.. Honestly, Redmond and Cingrani are not ML starters at this point.

Decent LF that could be had for less pain: Ludwick, maybe Corey Hart, heck maybe even Sorianno if his ankles are ok and the Cubs are still willing to eat payroll.. Maybe Cody Ross.. Now these guys aren't as good as Choo, but wouldn't cost Leake + Cingrani..

I guess I'd only trade Leake for a 2-3 year affordable solution in a position of need.

I guess I don't see why Mike Leake is the only answer to pitching depth. If Leake is valuable in trades, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat to fill the Reds' needs on offense. And Choo would be a very big pickup.

Not so sure how valuable Mike Leake would be sitting in the bullpen waiting for Chapman's inning limit. So Leake becomes this great starter suddenly in September?

I'd rather trade Leake - or Cingrani, Corcino, whoever brings back the best players. And then pick up some depth starters on the market for cheap. And the Reds can always supplement their staff at the deadline in July with a rental.

The Reds do not have that much of value to trade. This idea that Mike Leake sitting around is more important than fixing the offense is not something I can buy into.

Scrap Irony
11-30-2012, 12:35 PM
I'd do Leake and Cingrani, but not add Heisey.

Heisey, as a fourth OF/ PH/ PR, is a valuable commodity. I would be willing to add him if it's the difference between Choo and no-Choo, but I'd want a lottery ticket prospect for him. Chen Chun (the AA C) would be my target.

lollipopcurve
11-30-2012, 12:46 PM
Leake and Cingrani for a one-year rental is an overpay. Because there is almost no chance Choo would be re-signed. And to weaken the SP depth at the same time would be a terrible mistake, IMO. You simply can't assume acceptable starters will be available for the team later this offseason or at the deadline. Choo is a nice pickup for one major-league arm, not two.

The Voice of IH
11-30-2012, 01:31 PM
Choo is an impact player. No doubt about it.
If he was signed for more than 1 year, I think I would be more inclined to pull the trigger. There's the Boras factor, I don't think he will be an easy extension.


I feel like if Choo had more contract on him, he would bring an even greater value.

Maybe I overprice Choo because I have always been a big fan of his. I sometimes turn on Sports Time Ohio up here just to watch him play. Not too mention that he is a notorious Reds killer.

The Voice of IH
11-30-2012, 01:36 PM
I'd do Leake and Cingrani, but not add Heisey.

Heisey, as a fourth OF/ PH/ PR, is a valuable commodity. I would be willing to add him if it's the difference between Choo and no-Choo, but I'd want a lottery ticket prospect for him. Chen Chun (the AA C) would be my target.

I happy you brought this up.

The reason I feel that Heisey would have to be included is because the Indians need some outfield stability. Shelly Duncan, Johnny Damon, Brantley is just not cutting it for them. Heisey would be a welcomed addition.

Going to school here in Akron, I attend and follow the Akron Aeros a tid-bit. Chen would be a good player to get as well.

Rojo
11-30-2012, 02:07 PM
That's a .400 OBP LIFETIME against RHP.

That's his neon number. Irresistable.

Too bad he's a corner. But if Stubbs can re-discover his 20+ hr stroke in the 6th/7th hole, that's a formidable offense.

REDREAD
11-30-2012, 02:37 PM
Not so sure how valuable Mike Leake would be sitting in the bullpen waiting for Chapman's inning limit. So Leake becomes this great starter suddenly in September?
.

In 2011, Leake had a nice year. Not a given he'll bounce back, but potential is there.
The main problem is the huge dropoff from Leake to Redmond/Cingrani.
IMO, we're going to need 6 starters this year.
Another nice thing is that Leake is inexpensive and still has options. Gives the team a tremendous amount of flexiblity.. The team could sign a FA #6 starter, but you aren't going to get much talent if you expect the guy to potentially sit in AAA. Not to mention, it might take minimum of 2-5 million to get a respectable guy (in addition to a ML roster spot).

I also see Leake as part of the picture beyond this year. Sure, we want to load up for 2013, but that's a lot of talent (Cingrani, Leake and others) for a one year rental of Choo. Compare to what Wash had to give up for Span. Choo is a better hitter, but has less defensive value as a corner OF, and Span was signed to an affordable contract.

I know the board is down on Leake now (much like everyone was down on Arroyo last offseason), but he's a good bounceback candidate, and is cheap/effective.. It's just the orginal proposal is an overpay, IMO.
Now if the Indians want to expand the deal to include Masterson (also rumored to be shopped), then Leake is on the table (I know the Reds would have to ante up more).

REDREAD
11-30-2012, 02:43 PM
I happy you brought this up.

The reason I feel that Heisey would have to be included is because the Indians need some outfield stability. Shelly Duncan, Johnny Damon, Brantley is just not cutting it for them. Heisey would be a welcomed addition.
.

If they see Heisey as a starting player or significant contributor, then Cingrani, Heisey, and a minor prospect should be considered a good haul for a one year rental of Choo.
If I was the tribe, the time to move Choo is now. The market will shrink at the trade deadline, IMO. Trade him now while the contender's rosters are in flux and the market is looking for OF.

Kc61
11-30-2012, 02:49 PM
I'd do Leake and Cingrani, but not add Heisey.

Heisey, as a fourth OF/ PH/ PR, is a valuable commodity. I would be willing to add him if it's the difference between Choo and no-Choo, but I'd want a lottery ticket prospect for him. Chen Chun (the AA C) would be my target.

We have a different view on Heisey. The Reds need to change the hitting approach of much of its lineup. Heisey is a swing and miss hitter, low OBP, the type of right hand hitter that IMO gives the ballclub offensive issues. Terrible K/BB rate.

Walt says that teams are often asking for Heisey. I would accomodate one of them with a trade.

In case the Indians brass is reading, Heisey has some fine attributes as well. Good fielder, hustles every minute, very good power. Reds just need a different type IMO.

Kc61
11-30-2012, 02:55 PM
In 2011, Leake had a nice year. Not a given he'll bounce back, but potential is there.
The main problem is the huge dropoff from Leake to Redmond/Cingrani.
IMO, we're going to need 6 starters this year.
Another nice thing is that Leake is inexpensive and still has options. Gives the team a tremendous amount of flexiblity.. The team could sign a FA #6 starter, but you aren't going to get much talent if you expect the guy to potentially sit in AAA. Not to mention, it might take minimum of 2-5 million to get a respectable guy (in addition to a ML roster spot).

I also see Leake as part of the picture beyond this year. Sure, we want to load up for 2013, but that's a lot of talent (Cingrani, Leake and others) for a one year rental of Choo. Compare to what Wash had to give up for Span. Choo is a better hitter, but has less defensive value as a corner OF, and Span was signed to an affordable contract.

I know the board is down on Leake now (much like everyone was down on Arroyo last offseason), but he's a good bounceback candidate, and is cheap/effective.. It's just the orginal proposal is an overpay, IMO.
Now if the Indians want to expand the deal to include Masterson (also rumored to be shopped), then Leake is on the table (I know the Reds would have to ante up more).

We're talking about acquiring a starting LFer with a lifetime .400 OBP against righty pitching. A top notch left handed hitter. He would dramatically boost the Reds offense in the areas of need, LHH, OBP.

Let me posit this. Say you could get Choo with NO guarantee beyond one year. Straight up for Mike Leake.

Is there any question Reds should take this deal?

Leake is potentially a solid finesse pitcher, but I think he is being wildly overrated in these discussions. Leake, Cingrani, and Heisey for Choo? I think I probably make that deal, even for one year. If Choo has a potential interest in extending? I make the deal in a heartbeat.

And IMO, Choo is worth far more than Span. Span is a punch and judy hitter whose last three offensive years have been fair to poor. Choo is just a much, much better player.

RedsManRick
11-30-2012, 03:02 PM
Leake for Choo is a "loss" on the value front straight up in my opinion, due to the years and money. However, it makes the Reds a markedly better team in 2012, assuming his defensive performance (as measured by UZR) was an abberation. If there's a reasonable chance he can be resigned/extended as some point prior to hitting the FA market, I'd be game. If it were just a 1 year rental, I'd be more inclined to go the prospect route.

I would certainly not, however, trade Leake and Cigrani and more for Choo unless he was signing an extension the day he landed in Cincinnati.

_Sir_Charles_
11-30-2012, 03:12 PM
Leake for Choo is a "loss" on the value front straight up in my opinion, due to the years and money. However, it makes the Reds a markedly better team in 2012, assuming his defensive performance (as measured by UZR) was an abberation. If there's a reasonable chance he can be resigned/extended as some point prior to hitting the FA market, I'd be game. If it were just a 1 year rental, I'd be more inclined to go the prospect route.

I would certainly not, however, trade Leake and Cigrani and more for Choo unless he was signing an extension the day he landed in Cincinnati.

This.

RedlegJake
11-30-2012, 03:12 PM
Yjou know, if the Reds acquired Choo for left, then you could think about Billy platooning with Stubbs. Hamilton is scuffling hard with lefties. Let Stubbs have the off arms and Billy face the righties this year while he gets his feet wet. It could work and could solve a ton of offensive problems. Plus, if they keep Didi and zach they still have a strong chip to cash if they need a pitcher later on. A good young SS is one commodity that CAN bring an arm at least as good as Leake. The more I look at the possibilities a Choo trade could open up the more I like it!

757690
11-30-2012, 03:13 PM
I'd love Choo to be the Reds LF next year, but no way I trade Leake right now, especially for a one year rental.

Jeremy Guthrie just signed a three year $25M contract. JEREMY GUTHRIE!

Starting pitchers who are young, healthy and can give you 150+ innings around league average production are rare and very valuable. It may seem like the Reds have a surplus of starting pitching, but I'm betting next year around June, it won't seem that way at all.

While I like Choo, I'm sure the Reds can find a suitable LF for much less than the price of Mike Leake.

lollipopcurve
11-30-2012, 03:14 PM
Let me posit this. Say you could get Choo with NO guarantee beyond one year. Straight up for Mike Leake.

Yes. I'd even add a decent prospect (outside the top 10 or so).

757690
11-30-2012, 03:15 PM
Yjou know, if the Reds acquired Choo for left, then you could think about Billy platooning with Stubbs. Hamilton is scuffling hard with lefties. Let Stubbs have the off arms and Billy face the righties this year while he gets his feet wet. It could work and could solve a ton of offensive problems. Plus, if they keep Didi and zach they still have a strong chip to cash if they need a pitcher later on. A good young SS is one commodity that CAN bring an arm at least as good as Leake. The more I look at the possibilities a Choo trade could open up the more I like it!

I could be wrong, but I thought Hamilton did better against lefties than righties. He's a natural right handed hitter, and is just learning to hit left handed.

bucksfan2
11-30-2012, 03:30 PM
Leake for Choo is a "loss" on the value front straight up in my opinion, due to the years and money. However, it makes the Reds a markedly better team in 2012, assuming his defensive performance (as measured by UZR) was an abberation. If there's a reasonable chance he can be resigned/extended as some point prior to hitting the FA market, I'd be game. If it were just a 1 year rental, I'd be more inclined to go the prospect route.

I would certainly not, however, trade Leake and Cigrani and more for Choo unless he was signing an extension the day he landed in Cincinnati.

I don't get this. First off Choo is a much better player on a year to year basis that Leake. I don't think there is any doubting it. You also have to take into consideration that as of right now the Reds have pitching depth on both the major league club as well as the minors. If the Reds are high on Cingrani as well as Corcino they have help now in the upper minors as well as some exciting arms in the low minors. So what role does Leake have on this team if he is the 6th starter on a team that doesn't really have a role for him?

The Reds have a need in the OF. They have a pressing need to fix their CF position with help hopefully on the horizon. I don't understand the value of weighing 3 years of Leaking pitching as a MOR or BOR starter when the Reds seem to have that role filled. They have a pressing need to improve the offense in the OF and add another LH bat. If Leake provides more value to the Indians in year 2 and 3 than Choo does to the Reds than so be it. IMO they need to be focused on the here and now.

RedlegJake
11-30-2012, 03:39 PM
I could be wrong, but I thought Hamilton did better against lefties than righties. He's a natural right handed hitter, and is just learning to hit left handed.

Well this is what I get for reading a couple posts on redleg america or whatevrr that board is called and not checking up! Billy actually had .370 obp vs lefties. 418 vs righties in HiA and a .402 obp vs lefties and the same. 418 vs RH in A. So yes he is nominally better vs righties getting on but I was wrong - his numbers are hardly scuffling vs lefties! Alsjo his SP almost reverses these respective splis viz a viz lefty and righty balancing things out. He hits for a fair bit more power vs lefties while getting on more vs righties. I was wrong... just trade Drew already and go with young William...

RedsManRick
11-30-2012, 03:46 PM
I don't get this. First off Choo is a much better player on a year to year basis that Leake. I don't think there is any doubting it.

I agree. But if we get just one year of Choo, that's all the value we get.



If Leake provides more value to the Indians in year 2 and 3 than Choo does to the Reds than so be it. IMO they need to be focused on the here and now.

My point is that I'm only willing to give up so much future value for the here and now. The future value of Leake is one thing. The future value of Leake and two quality prospects is quite another.

RED VAN HOT
11-30-2012, 03:47 PM
No.

1. Do not deplete starting pitching depth. Reds are not likely to be as lucky this year in keeping starters healthy. Arms are fragile. Ask Madson, Masset, and Bray. The Reds need to go to spring training with at least seven legitimate contenders to start. Cingrani and Corcino are not there yet. I do not understand the notion that the Reds have six starters, let's trade one.

2. I like Choo. Not having to play against him is a plus in itself. He is no guarantee, however, of making the playoffs or going further in the playoffs if the Reds do make them. Is Choo at that price worth that much more than Victorino at comparable numbers and no prospects?

3. Choo will be cheaper in July. The Indians are going nowhere. Let them deal with Choo's arbitration this off season. When it becomes obvious that the Indians will not make the playoffs, they will be happy to shed payroll and get a mid level prospect in return. That would mean having him for half a season instead of a whole season, but at a much cheaper price. The Reds may even have different needs at mid season.

4. In general, I am not one to mortgage the future for slightly improved chances of going further in the playoffs. As a fan, I enjoy following a competitive team. Winning it all is great, but how long does that glow last before it is time to focus on the next season? It is hard for a small market team to reload. It takes a few years and some good drafts. Keeping the pitching pipeline flowing is the best insurance of remaining competitive.

757690
11-30-2012, 03:49 PM
Well this is what I get for reading a couple posts on redleg america or whatevrr that board is called and not checking up! Billy actually had .370 obp vs lefties. 418 vs righties in HiA and a .402 obp vs lefties and the same. 418 vs RH in A. So yes he is nominally better vs righties getting on but I was wrong - his numbers are hardly scuffling vs lefties! Alsjo his SP almost reverses these respective splis viz a viz lefty and righty balancing things out. He hits for a fair bit more power vs lefties while getting on more vs righties. I was wrong... just trade Drew already and go with young William...

Thanks for the research. I was just going on watching him. I never expected him to have such good numbers against righties. :thumbup:

Rojo
11-30-2012, 03:58 PM
Leake is potentially a solid finesse pitcher, but I think he is being wildly overrated in these discussions.

Strongly disagree. Last season spoiled us on quality SP. It can go wrong in an instant. Cueto's small, Arroyo can toss up some bad seasons, Bailey's is still a work-in-progress. I'd be much more confortable moving Cozart than Leake.

M2
11-30-2012, 04:27 PM
Mike Leake is not a throw-in. He's a 25 year-old starting pitcher who's held his own in the majors at a young age and likely has his best years in front of him. On top that, name the Cleveland Indians starting pitcher who is better than Mike Leake. ... Can't be done because that guy doesn't exist.

If they want a throw-in, then that's Todd Redmond. If they want Leake, then Cingrani is off the table.

Cingrani, Heisey and a more marginal prospect (e.g. Lotzkar) I'd do. I'd prefer it be Corcino to go rather than Cingrani, based largely on me having a lefty fetish and partially on not being sold on Corcino, but no way, no how would I toss Leake into that mix.

I(heart)Freel
11-30-2012, 05:09 PM
While I don't know the Indians' farm system at all, I wonder if someone like Soto has any appeal as sweetener.

The Reds' first-base farmhands' jobs for the next 12 years is to get good and get to AAA quickly in order to be traded.

REDREAD
11-30-2012, 05:10 PM
We're talking about acquiring a starting LFer with a lifetime .400 OBP against righty pitching. A top notch left handed hitter. He would dramatically boost the Reds offense in the areas of need, LHH, OBP.

Let me posit this. Say you could get Choo with NO guarantee beyond one year. Straight up for Mike Leake.

Is there any question Reds should take this deal?

Leake is potentially a solid finesse pitcher, but I think he is being wildly overrated in these discussions. Leake, Cingrani, and Heisey for Choo? I think I probably make that deal, even for one year. If Choo has a potential interest in extending? I make the deal in a heartbeat.

And IMO, Choo is worth far more than Span. Span is a punch and judy hitter whose last three offensive years have been fair to poor. Choo is just a much, much better player.

Yep, Span > Choo for one year.
But Washington traded for 2 or 3 years of Span, as opposed to one year of Choo.
Choo is pending arb and is going to be paid well in this last year.
Historically, corner OF in the last year of their contract just don't command a starter like Leake, a solid pitching prospect like Cingrani, Hiesey, and a PTBL.

Look at what St louis gave up for one year of Holliday a couple years ago


The A's sent Holliday and $1.5 million to the Cardinals and
receive power-hitting third baseman Brett Wallace, a top offensive player
in the St. Louis farm system; outfielder Shane Peterson and right-hander Clayton Mortensen.


Holliday > Choo and the Cardinals gave up much less for one year of him.

2 years ago, the Giants gave up only one pitching prospect for Beltran (although that was only a partial year rental).. Arguably Beltan was at least as good as Choo.

I'd love to have Choo, but giving up the four players mentioned is too much.

Would I do Leake straight up for Choo? I'd have to think about it honestly, because I don't want Redmond pitching in Cincy if at all possible, and I don't think Chapman will make it the entire year. A bad pitcher in the #5 slot can cost us considerably in the standings.

I guess I see pitchers like Leake more scarce than acceptable OFers.. Although I do admit that Choo is an elite OF.

Kc61
11-30-2012, 06:56 PM
Yep, Span > Choo for one year.
But Washington traded for 2 or 3 years of Span, as opposed to one year of Choo.
Choo is pending arb and is going to be paid well in this last year.
Historically, corner OF in the last year of their contract just don't command a starter like Leake, a solid pitching prospect like Cingrani, Hiesey, and a PTBL.

Look at what St louis gave up for one year of Holliday a couple years ago


Holliday > Choo and the Cardinals gave up much less for one year of him


I guess I see pitchers like Leake more scarce than acceptable OFers.. Although I do admit that Choo is an elite OF.

Holliday was traded to the Cards in July 2009. He was traded as a two month rental. Yet the A's got Brett Wallace, the best offensive player in the Cards system at the time in return.

In 2012 the Reds failed to score 700 runs for the first time in a decade. The team's lead off hitters hit .208/.254/.327. The team's OPS v. righty pitching was .710, below league average of .720.

Choo is perfect to help fix these problems and I, for one, would sacrifice Mike Leake and more to get him.

This is all hypothetical, I doubt the Reds will go for Choo. Probably they'll sign Ludwick and get a Coco Crisp type for CF. That would be fine with me.

mth123
11-30-2012, 10:56 PM
Leake for Choo is a "loss" on the value front straight up in my opinion, due to the years and money. However, it makes the Reds a markedly better team in 2012, assuming his defensive performance (as measured by UZR) was an abberation. If there's a reasonable chance he can be resigned/extended as some point prior to hitting the FA market, I'd be game. If it were just a 1 year rental, I'd be more inclined to go the prospect route.

I would certainly not, however, trade Leake and Cigrani and more for Choo unless he was signing an extension the day he landed in Cincinnati.

This post sums up my feelings exactly. A deal built around Corcino/Heisey would seem fair.

REDREAD
12-01-2012, 12:44 AM
Holliday was traded to the Cards in July 2009. He was traded as a two month rental. Yet the A's got Brett Wallace, the best offensive player in the Cards system at the time in return.


I did a look up him.. He's still young, but about a 750 OPS 3b.. doesn't seem that special, even though he was the best position player in the Cards system.

I think we can tweak the offense without giving up Leake. It's kind of neat the Reds have so much deep pitching though.. If the team had a Leake type pitcher in 2002, he'd be viewed as a savior and be totally untouchable..

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 03:52 AM
Cingrani to me is the real wild card here. Maybe I missed it back in September, but here's a John Sickels write-up on him with a nice tip of the cap to dougdirt (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/9/4/3291771/september-rookie-review-tony-cingrani-lhp-cincinnati-reds). If the Reds scouts (whose ability to evaluate pitching I am trusting more and more) see Cingrani as a top-to-middle of rotation starter, then I don't do the deal. Choo is turning 30, and there are probably solid options out there with less of a cost. I'll say 'yes' to the question, however, because I don't think most objective observers think Cingrani will be that good.

About the 1-year "rental" thing. One question to ask in evaluating this deal is whether you think Choo will be worthy of a being offered arbitration by the Reds after the 2013 season. If so, the deal is much more palatable, as the Reds would end up with two high draft picks as compensation. And now that this organization is no longer what it was 10 years ago when it couldn't identify amateur talent, and at lease one of those draft picks will probably amount to something good, thus minimizing the sting of losing Leake and Cingrani if one or both of them blossoms into a great pitcher.

membengal
12-02-2012, 08:28 AM
Leake OR Cingrani, but not both, in any deal for a player like Choo (who I value very highly).

I would prefer to hang onto Cingrani myself, but I admit to holding a candle for him. He is my current prospect crush.

mth123
12-02-2012, 09:12 AM
Leake OR Cingrani, but not both, in any deal for a player like Choo (who I value very highly).

I would prefer to hang onto Cingrani myself, but I admit to holding a candle for him. He is my current prospect crush.

I think Choo would be a great target, but as a one year rental, the cost can't be too much. Corcino/Heisey should be a good start. If it takes more, a lesser prospect could be added. Lamarre, Soto, or some one like that.

The Reds are trying to win in 2013. I wouldn't deal guys who can contribute in 2013. Leake may appear to be the odd man out in the rotation, but he's going to be needed and will probably be integral to the team's success. Cingrani is the only real lefty hope in the organization and would be a big boost to the pen at some point in 2013. Get what's needed for other guys. Corcino is a fairly highly regarded arm. For a one year rental he and a useful outfielder for the mix like Heisey shoud be a pretty good basis for a deal.

Vottomatic
12-02-2012, 09:41 AM
I think Choo would be a great target, but as a one year rental, the cost can't be too much. Corcino/Heisey should be a good start. If it takes more, a lesser prospect could be added. Lamarre, Soto, or some one like that.

The Reds are trying to win in 2013. I wouldn't deal guys who can contribute in 2013. Leake may appear to be the odd man out in the rotation, but he's going to be needed and will probably be integral to the team's success. Cingrani is the only real lefty hope in the organization and would be a big boost to the pen at some point in 2013. Get what's needed for other guys. Corcino is a fairly highly regarded arm. For a one year rental he and a useful outfielder for the mix like Heisey shoud be a pretty good basis for a deal.

Yeah, he's a one year rental. And I agree that Corcino/Heisey oughta be enough to obtain him.

But if I'm Walt, I'm asking Choo's agent behind the scenes what it would take to lock him up a few years.

I'd rather have Choo than Ludwick, frankly, because of age, and because Choo can do so many other things.

mth123
12-02-2012, 09:58 AM
Yeah, he's a one year rental. And I agree that Corcino/Heisey oughta be enough to obtain him.

But if I'm Walt, I'm asking Choo's agent behind the scenes what it would take to lock him up a few years.

I'd rather have Choo than Ludwick, frankly, because of age, and because Choo can do so many other things.

I'd ask about locking him up too, but he's not locked-up now and whether or not the Reds can lock him up shoudn't matter as to the cost to acquire him. The Indians are selling one year of Choo. If the Reds can extend him, that has nothing to do with the Indians.

Vottomatic
12-02-2012, 10:05 AM
I'd ask about locking him up too, but he's not locked-up now and whether or not the Reds can lock him up shoudn't matter as to the cost to acquire him. The Indians are selling one year of Choo. If the Reds can extend him, that has nothing to do with the Indians.

Agreed. It should have nothing to do with what we trade them because there are no guarantees.

The Voice of IH
12-02-2012, 12:32 PM
Yeah, he's a one year rental. And I agree that Corcino/Heisey oughta be enough to obtain him.

But if I'm Walt, I'm asking Choo's agent behind the scenes what it would take to lock him up a few years.

I'd rather have Choo than Ludwick, frankly, because of age, and because Choo can do so many other things.

And because it's Boras, he's going to tell you 5/$65 Mil.

vaticanplum
12-02-2012, 01:35 PM
About the 1-year "rental" thing. One question to ask in evaluating this deal is whether you think Choo will be worthy of a being offered arbitration by the Reds after the 2013 season. If so, the deal is much more palatable, as the Reds would end up with two high draft picks as compensation. And now that this organization is no longer what it was 10 years ago when it couldn't identify amateur talent, and at lease one of those draft picks will probably amount to something good, thus minimizing the sting of losing Leake and Cingrani if one or both of them blossoms into a great pitcher.

Genuine question: Why do we say "rental" anyway? It's not like we give them back to the original team when the time is up. Teams own those players, they just own them for a short time.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 02:11 PM
Genuine question: Why do we say "rental" anyway? It's not like we give them back to the original team when the time is up. Teams own those players, they just own them for a short time.

I see your point, but maybe the better analogy is to think of all players as being "rented," it's just that the Reds hold a longer lease on Mr. Votto than they would have on Mr. Choo.

Also the rent on Mr. Votto is more akin to Boardwalk (pre-hurricane of course) whereas the rent on Mr. Choo is more Illinois Avenue.