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Wonderful Monds
11-30-2012, 10:56 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/rockies-not-likely-to-trade-dexter-fowler.html

Do you think Corcino/Cingrani and Didi count as two top prospects?

RedEye
11-30-2012, 12:26 PM
Do you think the Rockies FO is just sending out a smoke screen here? To me, it sounds like Fowler is unlikely to be available for anything close to what the Reds are willing to offer. Maybe I'm missing something.

RedlegJake
11-30-2012, 02:18 PM
Sounds like they want a kings ransom or they'll just hang with him. Doubt that they consider Corcino and Didi enough. Sounds like they'd want more prospects added or the prospects upgraded - like Hamilton or. Stephenson. No way.

M2
11-30-2012, 03:06 PM
Given what Span (who had a better contract) just fetched, the Rox really ought to be thrilled with one Corcino-level prospect and two or three intriguing or usable arms (e.g. Kyle Lotzkar or Amir Garrett for intriguing; Ondrusek, Simon or Redmond for usable). Colorado is nearly bereft of pitching as an organization.

Some teams are wary of his bat outside of Coors (the Reds can be a little more confident because they've got a hitters park) and Fowler only comes with two years of control (and you've got to deal with arbitration to exercise that control). Colorado's not exactly sitting on a hot commodity. He is a good fit for certain teams, like the Reds, but no one is going to make a universe altering trade for him.

Plus, at some point the Reds are going to be just about the last team at the table. The remaining CF market, at least among likely buyers, looks like the Reds, Phillies, Giants, Rangers and maybe the Rays or Brewers. Hamilton, Bourn, Pagan, Victorino and Morgan are still free agents. That's six teams and five free agents (though Hamilton probably will get a job in an OF corner). And Coco Crisp is surely on the market as well. The Rox would be wise to take the deal they can get rather than hold out for pie in the sky.

Scrap Irony
11-30-2012, 03:26 PM
Plus, at some point the Reds are going to be just about the last team at the table. The remaining CF market, at least among likely buyers, looks like the Reds, Phillies, Giants, Rangers and maybe the Rays or Brewers. Hamilton, Bourn, Pagan, Victorino and Morgan are still free agents. That's six teams and five free agents (though Hamilton probably will get a job in an OF corner). And Coco Crisp is surely on the market as well. The Rox would be wise to take the deal they can get rather than hold out for pie in the sky.

You know the Giants, Phils, and Rangers have cash enough to afford some combination of the three top CF. That's Hamilton (A Phillie, IMO), Bourn (Giant), and Pagan (Rangers).

I don't think Texas will be willing to send any pitching to Colorado, Philadelphia has little in the minor league pipeline, and San Francisco is a division rival.

The Brewers are next and need a leadoff hitter. They have some coin, but no pitching. None. So Victorino, IMO, makes the most sense.

The Rays do have pitching, but little capability to spend money. Nor willingness. They also have Desmond Jennings, Lars Anderson, and a couple more minor leaguers they seem to like. There's always Ben Zobrist too-- though he's going to apparently go back to SS this season. (Which I love.) They might find Nyjer Morgan a good fit as a backup bench bat and part-timer CF. (That's the Ray MO.)

That leaves the Reds in the Fowler catbird seat, I'd wager. Well, it's him or Coco Crisp. Crisp would be far cheaper in terms of prospect cost, but Fowler's a really nice secondary player. (Or at least he might be.)

Wonderful Monds
11-30-2012, 03:54 PM
Sounds like they want a kings ransom or they'll just hang with him. Doubt that they consider Corcino and Didi enough. Sounds like they'd want more prospects added or the prospects upgraded - like Hamilton or. Stephenson. No way.

I think it's more likely because no team wants to meet their price rather than the Rockies wanting to keep him so bad. But I think they'll come around for all the reasons M2 and Scrap listed.

M2
11-30-2012, 04:26 PM
You know the Giants, Phils, and Rangers have cash enough to afford some combination of the three top CF. That's Hamilton (A Phillie, IMO), Bourn (Giant), and Pagan (Rangers).

I don't think Texas will be willing to send any pitching to Colorado, Philadelphia has little in the minor league pipeline, and San Francisco is a division rival.

The Brewers are next and need a leadoff hitter. They have some coin, but no pitching. None. So Victorino, IMO, makes the most sense.

The Rays do have pitching, but little capability to spend money. Nor willingness. They also have Desmond Jennings, Lars Anderson, and a couple more minor leaguers they seem to like. There's always Ben Zobrist too-- though he's going to apparently go back to SS this season. (Which I love.) They might find Nyjer Morgan a good fit as a backup bench bat and part-timer CF. (That's the Ray MO.)

That leaves the Reds in the Fowler catbird seat, I'd wager. Well, it's him or Coco Crisp. Crisp would be far cheaper in terms of prospect cost, but Fowler's a really nice secondary player. (Or at least he might be.)

That's a decent breakdown of things. I have Bourn ticketed for Philly, Victorino for the Giants and the Giants giving their CF job to Leonys Martin, but that's here nor there.

My guess is at the winter meetings Jocketty sounds out Beane on Coco Crisp, finds out if he can get Morgan at a bargain price, and then plays hardball with the Rox - essentially telling O'Dowd he's leaving Nashville with a CF regardless of whether it's Fowler.

Scrap Irony
11-30-2012, 05:23 PM
If the Rangers go for Martin (which is a legitimate move), that makes Pagan available. In essence, there are too many CF for too few spots.

Of course, Colorado could always offer Fowler to a team in need of a LF. Perhaps Seattle, for two of their young SP?

Kc61
11-30-2012, 05:39 PM
Fowler is arbitration eligible this year and next. Assume this mean he hits free agency after 2014 season. He is projected to earn $4 million next season. I don't see these as impediments, he's reasonable enough and doesn't have a LTC.

But I don't see the Reds going in this direction.

For one thing, with Hamilton on the way, Reds will not want to trade major prospects for a CF.

Secondly, wonder how Fowler would react knowing that Hamilton is coming up, and he, Fowler, is a stop gap. A young player (26) might not like this situation.

Third, with Stubbs, Heisey, Hamilton as the incumbent and future CF, I just sense that the Reds would prefer a more established veteran as the additional, stopgap player.

If I were guessing, I'd expect the Reds to go for Coco Crisp. He seems to bit the bill best of all the candidates, although he's a tad expensive for one year.

Nyger Morgan has had some bad years recently. Grady Sizemore would require a leap of faith given his injuries, but is a possibility.

If Reds do go for Fowler, it might mean they see Hamilton in the minors for two more seasons. Doubtful to me, I think Hamilton will be rushed to the big leagues.

Steve4192
11-30-2012, 06:10 PM
Of course, Colorado could always offer Fowler to a team in need of a LF. Perhaps Seattle, for two of their young SP?

Can you imagine a worse scenario for any hitter? Going from Coors Field to Safeco? I wouldn't wish that fate on anyone.

Vottomatic
11-30-2012, 07:45 PM
Nats give up one top prospect for Span. And now the Rockies think they're going to get a Latos haul for Fowler????

Fowler has been my target all along. But the Rockies are nuts.

Just stand pat Reds, and hope Hamilton progresses quickly. With Hamilton, Corcino, Cingrani, and Gregorius, and even Stephenson in the wings, the Reds have a great future ahead of them. The Rockies are pure junk with no pitching whatsoever, while the Reds have 5 or 6 solid starters, a great bullpen, and some good pitching prospects coming behind all of that.

Scrap Irony
11-30-2012, 07:49 PM
For one thing, with Hamilton on the way, Reds will not want to trade major prospects for a CF.

Fowler could play LF and provide Gold Glove defense in that position while batting second in the lineup. The Cincinnati OF defense could become one of the best of all time, were Hamilton to reach his ceiling, Bruce to play as he did a couple years ago, and Fowler move to LF. Too, as a two-hole hitter, Fowler's speed, bunting ability, and pop would all play up. As a switch hitter, he'd be a nightmare for opposing pitchers as well.

Hamilton CF
Fowler LF
Votto 1B
Frazier 3B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Hanigan/ Mesoraco C
Gregorius/ Cozart SS

Were Hamilton to reach his expected level of production and Fowler to prove more htan a Coors Field mirage, that lineup could produce 200+ SB and 175+ HR.

Kc61
11-30-2012, 07:57 PM
Fowler could play LF and provide Gold Glove defense in that position while batting second in the lineup. The Cincinnati OF defense could become one of the best of all time, were Hamilton to reach his ceiling, Bruce to play as he did a couple years ago, and Fowler move to LF. Too, as a two-hole hitter, Fowler's speed, bunting ability, and pop would all play up. As a switch hitter, he'd be a nightmare for opposing pitchers as well.

Hamilton CF
Fowler LF
Votto 1B
Frazier 3B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Hanigan/ Mesoraco C
Gregorius/ Cozart SS

Were Hamilton to reach his expected level of production and Fowler to prove more htan a Coors Field mirage, that lineup could produce 200+ SB and 175+ HR.

I would prefer a power hitting LF for the middle of the order.

Hamilton, Phillips, Votto, Ludwick, Bruce, Frazier, Cozart, Catcher, Pitcher. If Mes hits, he can switch spots with Cozart.

If Frazier were a more established cleanup hitter, I might prefer it your way.

LegallyMinded
11-30-2012, 09:43 PM
Is the pro-Fowler contingent not concerned about his severe road/home splits? I understand that GABP, like Coors, is a favorable hitting environment, but ESPN's park factors (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor) seem to indicate that's primarily a result of GABP increasing home run totals. HRs aren't really a big part of Fowler's game, and in terms of singles, doubles and triples, GABP isn't nearly as favorable as Coors. It doesn't seem like Fowler's skills would play very well in GABP.

Scrap Irony
11-30-2012, 11:24 PM
His career road obp is 331, a full 64 points higher than the guy he'd replace. Even if that's all he'll do, that's significant.

Add to that his age, ceiling, smaller ballparks to play the majority of his games in, and the lineup he's in, and the downside is negligible.

IMO, Fowler would OPS around 825 as Red with around 20 homers (he had 13 last season in Colorado) and about the same number of stolen bases. His approach at the plate-- a willingness to work the count-- would be welcome too. Though he does K a fair amount of the time, he'd still K around 100 times less than Stubbs. That'd put him at the third best Red hitter behind Bruce and Votto. Not only that, his ability to switch hit balances the lineup nicely and is a weapon against RH. Which the Reds could really use.

Add Fowler and Jason Bay or Ryan Sweeney, and the Red offense, with health, could be among the best in the league, IMO.

corkedbat
12-01-2012, 12:27 AM
I'd be more willing to include more to the Rox for Fowler if they included Pomerantz coming back on our end. :evil: Thought he had filthy stuff for the Tribe, but hasn't done much for Colorado. I'd love to start him off in the pen and give Price a shot at him.

Johnny Footstool
12-01-2012, 01:38 AM
Rockies' players' home/road splits tend to even out when they leave Colorado. The good hitters aren't quite as good as they were at Coors, but aren't nearly as bad as they were away from Coors.

Matt Holliday is a prime example.

Vottomatic
12-01-2012, 08:12 AM
The thing about Fowler is he's only 26 years old and he's a switch hitter. Along with his high OBP, that intrigues me the most.

Benihana
12-01-2012, 01:26 PM
I'd be more willing to include more to the Rox for Fowler if they included Pomerantz coming back on our end. :evil: Thought he had filthy stuff for the Tribe, but hasn't done much for Colorado. I'd love to start him off in the pen and give Price a shot at him.

Agree with this. Pomeranz is a guy I liked a lot in the draft. Hopefully he doesn't turn out like two other big lefties I liked- Andrew Miller and Rich Hill.

I'd do Leake, Corcino and Cingrani for Fowler and Pomeranz.

Would also throw in one of Stubbs, Heisey or LaMarre.

LoganBuck
12-01-2012, 01:31 PM
I'd do Leake, Corcino and Cingrani for Fowler and Pomeranz.

Would also throw in one of Stubbs, Heisey or LaMarre



That is a whole lot! Throw in Cozart/Didi and that brings back Justin Upton and approaches bringing Bauer with him.

Benihana
12-01-2012, 02:51 PM
That is a whole lot! Throw in Cozart/Didi and that brings back Justin Upton and approaches bringing Bauer with him.

I'd do that too.

Realistically we just need one young ML ready pitching prospect to be the "6th starter" with this roster. Whether that's Corcino, Cingrani, Pomeranz or Bauer, I'm fine as long as it means Upton or Fowler is in the OF.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 12:25 AM
Rockies' players' home/road splits tend to even out when they leave Colorado. The good hitters aren't quite as good as they were at Coors, but aren't nearly as bad as they were away from Coors.

Matt Holliday is a prime example.

This is well said. Same with Larry Walker. Same with Galarraga (OPS went from .974 to .991 after being traded to Atlanta). Same with Ellis Burks (followed an .865 his last year in Colorado to .964 to 1.025 the following two years in San Francisco). Juan Pierre got better in Florida and getting away from the altitude preserved his body and allowed him to play 162 games for 5 straight years.

Bichette declined when he went to Cincinnati, but he was 36 years old.

95% of posters on this thread are overvaluing what the Reds have to offer and undervaluing what Fowler has to offer.

You just saw what BJ Upton got in free agency, and we'll probably see Bourn get a huge chunk as well. Dexter Fowler is decidedly better than those guys and he's only going to cost about 4 million next year and isn't eligible for free agency until 2015. But putting salary aside who in the Reds organization is more valuable? Votto, Chapman for sure. Cueto and Latos if they keep up their same pace. Bruce is close (although I watch more than half of both players' games and I'd rather have Fowler). That's it. Not Homer Bailey; not Sean Marshall (who I like a lot); not Todd Frazier; and definitely not Billy Hamilton or any of the Reds' pitching prospects.

If I'm O'Dowd, I want Billy Hamilton and two serious pitching prospects in return for forfeiting 2 years of Fowler. I'm certainly not giving the Reds back any pitching that I think is going to turn into anything.

Scrap Irony
12-02-2012, 10:38 AM
I'd argue that Cueto and Latos are more valuable and that Bailey was turning the corner toward being more valuable. If Chapman becomes a starter, he, too, could be more valuable.

Bruce, Frazier (at 3B only), Phillips, and Fowler would all be around the same value, IMO, assuming no improvement. (And no decline.) If Cozart improves his obp by 35 points, he'd be in the neighborhood as well.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 01:06 PM
I'd argue that Cueto and Latos are more valuable and that Bailey was turning the corner toward being more valuable. If Chapman becomes a starter, he, too, could be more valuable.

Bruce, Frazier (at 3B only), Phillips, and Fowler would all be around the same value, IMO, assuming no improvement. (And no decline.) If Cozart improves his obp by 35 points, he'd be in the neighborhood as well.

Just to clarify, my post agrees with you on Cueto, Latos, and Chapman (even if he remains a reliever). I didn't include Phillips, but I see a good argument for him depending on how high your rate his defense. I don't like the argument for Bailey, unless what we saw in September and October is the standard going forward. No way on Cozart. I guess I'm fine with him being a stopgap (mostly for his defense) until something better comes along, but we're really talking about a replacement-level bat with a terrible approach at the plate who occasionally connects for a round tripper.

Scrap Irony
12-02-2012, 02:02 PM
Just to clarify, my post agrees with you on Cueto, Latos, and Chapman (even if he remains a reliever). I didn't include Phillips, but I see a good argument for him depending on how high your rate his defense. I don't like the argument for Bailey, unless what we saw in September and October is the standard going forward. No way on Cozart. I guess I'm fine with him being a stopgap (mostly for his defense) until something better comes along, but we're really talking about a replacement-level bat with a terrible approach at the plate who occasionally connects for a round tripper.

I can see your points, all.

I'd agree that if the Bailey we saw in the second half is the new Homer Bailey, he's as valuable as Cueto and Latos. But the first half Bailey is a step below.

I'd also point out that a Cozart with 30 extra obp points would be a perennial All-Star. .250/.320/.405/.725 with Gold Glove level defense at SS is of monstrous value, IMO. The trick is fining those extra 30 points of obp.

M2
12-02-2012, 02:46 PM
If I'm O'Dowd, I want Billy Hamilton and two serious pitching prospects in return for forfeiting 2 years of Fowler. I'm certainly not giving the Reds back any pitching that I think is going to turn into anything.

I'm sure O'Dowd wants all sorts of things. Unfortunately for him, he's not in a position to make steep demands. There's a glut of CFs on the market. No one, and I mean absolutely no one, is going to pay three top prospects for Fowler.

I like Fowler, a lot. I'd be thrilled if the Reds get him, but any deal for him is going to rely upon Dan O'Dowd coming to grips with where the market is. O'Dowd can walk away from the table, but if he wants to cash in Fowler for some pitching, and he really needs to, then his best option is probably taking what Walt Jocketty will give him. He's not getting Hamilton. He's not getting Stephenson. He might be able to get Corcino and Cingrani. Jocketty will try to make it only one of them. My guess is Jocketty will give in if he has to. However, Billy Beane probably is willing to do Coco Crisp for neither of those two prospects.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 03:06 PM
I'm sure O'Dowd wants all sorts of things. Unfortunately for him, he's not in a position to make steep demands. There's a glut of CFs on the market. No one, and I mean absolutely no one, is going to pay three top prospects for Fowler.

I can see you being correct about this. If so, O'Dowd should keep him another year and try to prevent Coors Field attendance from cratering. Two more years of Dexter Fowler is worth more to the Rockies than what you're talking about. He's not eligible for free agency until after 2014.

One thing to keep an eye on. A downside to Jason Giambi losing out on the managing job to Walt Weiss is that Fowler has lost his de-facto hitting coach and strength/conditioning coach. I'm not too worried about it, but his power surge wasn't the work of Carney Lansford.

Kudos to you for liking him early on. His rookie year, I thought he was overhyped, but I totally changed my tune after his first full year. I think my opinion shifted after I watched from the stands as he did this to Chase Utley (http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7049229&topic_id=7224150).

Supposedly a great team guy too. Occasional frustrating brain lock as a baserunner, and for a guy so fast he's not that good of a base stealer. Otherwise, besides strikeouts which I really don't care about, there's not much to dislike about his game.

M2
12-02-2012, 03:37 PM
I can see you being correct about this. If so, O'Dowd should keep him another year and try to prevent Coors Field attendance from cratering. Two more years of Dexter Fowler is worth more to the Rockies than what you're talking about. He's not eligible for free agency until after 2014.

Fowler's trade value is only going to drop as he gets closer to free agency. The Rockies are woefully thin on pitching. If they can get an arm they really like (and maybe Corcino or Cingrani aren't), then they'd be passing on six years of a pitcher they desperately need for one year of Dexter Fowler.

The Rox can always bring in hitters to feast at Coor's (best fit for Josh Hamilton says me). Until then Fowler's got the same fundamental problem as Reds hitters from the Lost Decade: the answer to "But can he pitch?" is "No."

Vottomatic
12-02-2012, 04:02 PM
I think the Rockies have a serious dilemma on their hands, if they're serious about rebuilding.

They're not going to get 3 top prospects/major leaguers for Fowler.
If they hold onto Fowler, they are another year removed from rebuilding and wasting time.
If they hold onto Fowler, his trade value drops as he gets closer to free agency in 2014.

I'm not saying take anything. But certainly they could get a decent pitcher or top pitching prospect for him, such as Cingrani or Leake.

They'll hold out for a haul and end up with nothing.

mdccclxix
12-02-2012, 04:32 PM
Fowler's trade value is only going to drop as he gets closer to free agency. The Rockies are woefully thin on pitching. If they can get an arm they really like (and maybe Corcino or Cingrani aren't), then they'd be passing on six years of a pitcher they desperately need for one year of Dexter Fowler.

The Rox can always bring in hitters to feast at Coor's (best fit for Josh Hamilton says me). Until then Fowler's got the same fundamental problem as Reds hitters from the Lost Decade: the answer to "But can he pitch?" is "No."

Brilliant idea. I don't know what their payroll would be but move Fowler for pitching and sign Hamilton would be awesome. Hamilton-Tulo-Cargo would be an AL worthy lineup.

I'd love to see Fowler go to Cincinnati and hit well for years to come. He could move to LF if Hamilton is ready in 2014.

Fowler
Phillips
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Frazier
Mez
Cozart

If Col took Leake, Stubbs and/or Masset the money could work out to acquire Ludwick as well. They might want another arm, say Lotzkar.

mdccclxix
12-02-2012, 04:34 PM
A future lineup with Fowler would be crazy:

Billy H .350 obp
Fowler .375 obp
Votto .400 obp

:lol:

Bruce would have 120 RBI that year.

Vottomatic
12-02-2012, 04:42 PM
A future lineup with Fowler would be crazy:

Billy H .350 obp
Fowler .375 obp
Votto .400 obp

:lol:

Bruce would have 120 RBI that year.

I had this crazy off the wall thought the other night that the Reds pulled the wool over everyone's eyes, signed Josh Hamilton for LF and bat cleanup, traded for Fowler to leadoff and play CF, traded Cozart, Leake, Mez, and others to acquire Fowler and James Shields. Shields was added to the rotation to go with Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo........Chapman sent back to Closer.....Broxton, Marshall, Hoover, Lecure, Arredondo, and someone else as bullpen/setup guys............and the big twist was Gregorius starting the season at SS, and BILLY HAMILTON TAKING OVER AT SS when he was major league ready. Reds fool everyone by making them think Billy is going to play CF and leadoff and fool everyone by making them think Chapman is going into the rotation.

Sneaky. :laugh:

SS B. Hamilton (SH)
CF Fowler (SH)
1B Votto (LH)
LF J. Hamilton (LH)
RF Bruce (LH)
2B Phillips (RH)
3B Frazier (RH)
C Hanigan (RH)

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Shields
SP Bailey
SP Arroyo

CL Chapman
RP Broxton
RP Marshall
RP Hoover
RP Lecure
RP Arredondo
RP Anyone

cincrazy
12-02-2012, 06:03 PM
Jon Morosi of Fox Sports is speculating that the Rockies like Homer, the Reds like Fowler, and maybe a match could be made there. All speculation, but interesting point.

Wonderful Monds
12-02-2012, 06:08 PM
Jon Morosi of Fox Sports is speculating that the Rockies like Homer, the Reds like Fowler, and maybe a match could be made there. All speculation, but interesting point.

No thanks. I don't trade a borderline #1 for Fowler.

Cedric
12-02-2012, 06:11 PM
Jon Morosi of Fox Sports is speculating that the Rockies like Homer, the Reds like Fowler, and maybe a match could be made there. All speculation, but interesting point.

I'd be completely on board with that.

mdccclxix
12-02-2012, 06:12 PM
Jon Morosi of Fox Sports is speculating that the Rockies like Homer, the Reds like Fowler, and maybe a match could be made there. All speculation, but interesting point.


In the vein of old-fashioned baseball trades Ö How about Dexter Fowler for Homer Bailey?

We know this much, from major-league sources: The Colorado Rockies like Bailey, the right-hander who looked like a legitimate No. 2 starter for long stretches of this year. The Cincinnati Reds like Fowler, the antidote to their worst-in-the-majors .581 OPS from the leadoff spot. Now the question is whether the mutual interest crystallizes into trade discussions during this weekís winter meetings in Nashville, Tenn.

On a very basic level, the fit is there: The Rockies are desperate to improve their pitching staff and have had trouble luring free-agent starters to Coors Field. After a season in which many of their homegrown starters struggled as the team posted the worst ERA in the majors, the Rockies may have little choice but to trade from a position of strength. The Reds need at least one more outfielder but have said they are close to their payroll limit Ė thus rendering them spectators in the Michael Bourn sweepstakes.

And the Reds just happen to have a surplus of starting pitchers, provided Aroldis Chapman succeeds in his transition to the rotation.

The talks could be helped along by the fact that Bailey and Fowler earn comparable salaries. According to the MLBTradeRumors.com arbitration calculator, Bailey is projected to earn $5.1 million in 2013, Fowler $4 million. Bailey is on track to become a free agent after the 2014 season, Fowler after 2015.

Both players are coming off career-best seasons. Rival teams have said the asking price is exceedingly high for Fowler, the switch-hitting center fielder who amassed an .863 OPS this year. Bailey inched closer to his considerable potential this year, making 33 starts and surpassing the 200-inning mark for the first time while cutting his ERA to 3.68.

The Reds are considering a number of alternatives for their outfield, including free agents Ryan Ludwick and Cody Ross. One source suggested they may be reluctant to commit to Fowler in center field for the long term knowing that the dynamic prospect Billy Hamilton is on the verge of breaking into the majors. Yet, it is hard to fathom a better fit than Fowler if the Reds want to address their lack of production in center field and at the leadoff spot with a single move.

-- Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 06:25 PM
Fowler's trade value is only going to drop as he gets closer to free agency. The Rockies are woefully thin on pitching. If they can get an arm they really like (and maybe Corcino or Cingrani aren't), then they'd be passing on six years of a pitcher they desperately need for one year of Dexter Fowler.

The Rox can always bring in hitters to feast at Coor's (best fit for Josh Hamilton says me). Until then Fowler's got the same fundamental problem as Reds hitters from the Lost Decade: the answer to "But can he pitch?" is "No."

If Fowler's slugging percentage climbs into the .500s, which is not out of the question, his trade value will go up even if the team acquiring him only gets him for 1 year. But even if he plateaus this year, he will not have any less trade value prior to this year's trade deadline than he has now. He’ll probably have more.

The Rockies starting pitching is not in a good place but I haven't seen a single trade offer on this thread that would be a better return then the two draft picks that the Rockies will acquire in 2015 if they lose him to free agency after 2014.

Your proposal, M2, is more enticing than some on here. Some are a joke. Drew Stubbs has near-negative trade value. Mike Leake is a huge question mark. If he were going into his second year of arbitration, rather than his first, he'd be a non-tender candidate. As bad as the Rockies starting pitching is, even money says that Jhoulys Chacin and Drew Pomeranz outpitch Leake next year. Christian Friedrich and perhaps even Jorge De La Rosa have a shot at outpitching him as well.

Speaking of De La Rosa, who is coming back from Tommy John, he exercised his $11 million option for 2013. The option for 2014 is a team option. If an organization wanted to be creative - AND WAS WILLING TO SPEND SOME CASH - there may be a way to get Fowler without giving up a lot of players, if the Reds ownership has the cash to do it. It goes like this:

Walt Jocketty: [calls Dan O'Dowd] Hi Dan, this is Walt Jocketty.

Dan O'Dowd: Hi Walt.

Walt: Listen, I know we haven't been able to make a deal on Fowler, but Mr. Castellini just made a capital call to his partners, and they've allowed me to make the following offer: We trade you Mike Leake and Drew Stubbs and a couple worthless prospects you've never heard of, and you trade us Dexter Fowler and Jorge DeLa Rosa.

Dan: That's a crazy deal, Walt. Fowler alone is worth much more than that. De La Rosa is rehabbing well and has his velocity back.

Walt: But Dan, you know that De La Rosa wouldn't get $2 million – let alone eleven - on the open market given his age an injury history. This trade allows you to get $11 million off the books for the upcoming year. Plus, you improve your rotation as we're giving you a solid starter in Leake who is only entering his first year of arbitration and outpitched everyone on your starting staff. Stubbs is a great athlete and will thrive in Coors Field where he won't see as many breaking balls.

Dan: You're killing me. Jesus loves you, but he is telling me to hang up on you now. [click]

Walt: [dials Dan O' Dowd's bosses] [ring, ring] Hello, Dick and Charlie Monfort? Walt Jocketty, your former Assistant GM, here.

Dick Montfort: Oh yeah, I remember you, aren't you the bald guy that used to make coffee for Bob Gebhardt? You're with the Cardinals now right?

Charlie Montfort: No, Dick, I think he's the Assistant GM of the Reds.

Walt: You're half right. I'm the Reds' President and GM, but anyway, you two got a minute?

Dick: I dunno, Charlie is finishing up his bible study meeting and is going to be late to his AA meeting.

Walt: This won't take long. I'm calling about your GM. Say, I don't mean to go over Dan's head. But, what would you say if I told you that he just turned down an offer from me that would get $11 million off your books for next year and improve your starting pitching in the process, and all it's going to cost you is Fowler and De La Rosa?

Charlie: Who would be coming back to us in the deal?

Walt: Mike Leake, Drew Stubbs, and a couple minor leaguers.

Dick: Leake's the guy who never spent a day in the minors, right?

Walt: Correct. That's him. He's quite an athlete. In fact he hit better last year than your team hit on the road. I’m not exaggerating. Look it up.

Charlie: I know him. We like him. I don't know about Stubbs. He would be at least fourth on our outfield depth chart behind CarGo, Eric Young, and Tyler Colvin.

Walt: Well, I'm sure we could find someone else to throw in if you don't need him. Maybe some minor leaguers. That way you'd save even more money in the deal because Stubbs is actually arbitration eligible.

Dick: We’d need another major leaguer or two to sell this to our fans. Got any fourth or fifth outfielders who are not arbitration eligible?

Walt: Chris Heisey?

Charlie: Yeah, he'll do. Gimme another cheap solid starting arm, and we've got a deal. Who's the #6 starter on your depth chart going into next year?

Walt: Todd Redmond. He's the only guy who started a major league game last year outside of our starting 5. We got him from the Braves organization last year. ERA in the 3s, strikes guys out. Plenty of upside. Under team control until 2019.

Charlie: So that's Leake, Heisey, Redmond, and two minor leaguers for Fowler and De La Rosa?

Dick: Players only in the deal? No cash changes hands right?

Walt: That's right. We wouldn't need to involve the commissioner's office. We'll trade all the contracts straight up.

Charlie: Alright. Send over the paperwork.

[If any of you know the Reds' brass and know that this is feasible.... it would only cost the Reds roughly what is coming off the books in Madson's contract... feel free to pass this idea along to them. You're welcome.]

mattfeet
12-02-2012, 06:51 PM
Sources tell FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal the Reds like Dexter Fowler and the Rockies like Homer Bailey. Now the question is whether their mutual interest crystallizes into trade discussions during the Winter Meetings.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cincinnati_reds/index.html#mLy86P6FF2PATQWq.99

lollipopcurve
12-02-2012, 06:58 PM
It's a very good fit both ways. Because I think the extra year of control with Fowler makes up for the difference in value between a starter the caliber of Bailey and an emerging CF. Or the Reds may have to add a small sweetener.

I'm skeptical of the Reds sacrificing Bailey for a CF, given Hamilton's looming presence. The team is still going to need some middle of the order upgrade.

_Sir_Charles_
12-02-2012, 07:07 PM
Fowler for Homer. no.

Chili's idea though...I might just bite on that one. I'd hate to lose Leake...but that's a pretty fair trade both ways IMO. Leake, Hi-C, 2 ML'ers for Fowler & De La Rosa. Yeah, I think that's fly.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 07:49 PM
Sources tell FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal the Reds like Dexter Fowler and the Rockies like Homer Bailey. Now the question is whether their mutual interest crystallizes into trade discussions during the Winter Meetings.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cincinnati_reds/index.html#mLy86P6FF2PATQWq.99

M2 suggested this exact trade on another forum at some point prior to early May 2012... and I seconded it. During this year's playoffs, I felt sort of relieved it didn't happen because I started thinking I had been wrong about Homer all these years.

This one does make sense from the Reds' side, although it would sting. If there are good options that cost less, we should explore them. It may make less sense to the Rockies, unless they can sign him long term, as they'd be taking on a guy who is closer to free agency than a guy like Leake. Plus he won't be cheap.

lollipopcurve
12-02-2012, 07:59 PM
It may make less sense to the Rockies, unless they can sign him long term, as they'd be taking on a guy who is closer to free agency than a guy like Leake.

This is true. My guess is that if the Reds know Bailey will sign if someone shows him the money, they will tell that to a team who's seriously thinking of acquiring him (and extending him).

Ultimately, the Reds have to decide between Latos and Bailey on an extension. I don't think they can get them both done (and have money left for a possible extension for Chapman). My guess is that the choice will be Latos.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 08:02 PM
The article that mattfeet posted points out a flawed assumption on my part. Because Fowler has played in parts of five seasons - AND has had more than 500 plate appearances in all of the last four seasons - I assumed he had at least four years of major league service and would be eligible for free agency in 2015.

Uh uh.

He's not eligible for free agency until 2016, as he has less than four years of major league service. This makes a straight-up deal for Homer much more palatable to the Reds and much less palatable to the Rockies. Homer can walk after 2014, and most Coors Field pitchers elect to do so unless the Rox overpay to keep them.

cinreds21
12-02-2012, 08:03 PM
I
Dick[/B]: Leake's the guy who never spent a day in the minors, right?


Actually, that's false.

cinreds21
12-02-2012, 08:09 PM
I guess Fowler would be OK. As I've expressed, I am fine giving up Bailey in a trade. The only thing, is that until last season, his numbers weren't really that good. He hit around .260 for most of his career until he hit .300 last year. If we're going to trade for a longterm player, it needs to be a left fielder and not in center because that'll just send the wrong message to Hamilton with his transition to the outfield. I just think it is a wasted opportunity if you go out and trade for Fowler when you have Hamilton who will be up in September.

mdccclxix
12-02-2012, 08:15 PM
I guess Fowler would be OK. As I've expressed, I am fine giving up Bailey in a trade. The only thing, is that until last season, his numbers weren't really that good. He hit around .260 for most of his career until he hit .300 last year. If we're going to trade for a longterm player, it needs to be a left fielder and not in center because that'll just send the wrong message to Hamilton with his transition to the outfield. I just think it is a wasted opportunity if you go out and trade for Fowler when you have Hamilton who will be up in September.

Fowler could move to LF for a year or two and not hurt things at all, especially if his OPS is around .800.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 08:19 PM
I guess Fowler would be OK. As I've expressed, I am fine giving up Bailey in a trade. The only thing, is that until last season, his numbers weren't really that good. He hit around .260 for most of his career until he hit .300 last year. If we're going to trade for a longterm player, it needs to be a left fielder and not in center because that'll just send the wrong message to Hamilton with his transition to the outfield. I just think it is a wasted opportunity if you go out and trade for Fowler when you have Hamilton who will be up in September.

You're right that last year was his best year, but he had pretty much attained his current levels in the 2nd half of 2011 (after a stint in the minors in which he destroyed the Pacific Coast League. His 2nd half of 2011 was .288/.381/.498. His power declined in the 2nd half last year, but I attribute that to his getting less to hit with the Triple-A lineups (other than CarGo) that the Rox were running out by then. His 1st and 2nd half obps were identical.

Not worried about the Billy Hamilton thing. If he can outplay Fowler in CF, Fowler gets moved to left. If not, Hamilton gets moved to left. This happened to Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson too, IIRC.

RANDY IN INDY
12-02-2012, 08:21 PM
If you have both Fowler and Hamilton in the outfield, you better have someone that can consistently put up power numbers at third base and either catcher or shortstop.

Wonderful Monds
12-02-2012, 08:24 PM
If you have both Fowler and Hamilton in the outfield, you better have someone that can consistently put up power numbers at third base and either catcher or shortstop.

What's wrong with Dexter Fowler's power?

cinreds21
12-02-2012, 08:30 PM
What's wrong with Dexter Fowler's power?

Typically you want a left fielder to hit ~25 homeruns. Fowler hit 13 last year and I don't really see him getting more than that. The only homerun you will see from Hamilton will be via the inside-the-park variety. Subbing power in left field for Fowler would kinda hurt, but it's not that big of a deal, assuming Frazier hits around 20 at third. Another issue I have with Fowler, is he has never played one single inning in left, including the minors. Now, I know it's that big of a transition, but still something to consider.

gilpdawg
12-02-2012, 08:37 PM
All of the advanced fielding metrics hate Fowler. Coors Field effect or is he not good out there? I haven't seen him enough to judge. The Rockies haven't been mlb.TV darlings the past couple years obviously, so I have only seen him when they play the Reds.

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD

Scrap Irony
12-02-2012, 08:44 PM
If Mesoraco is for real, the Reds could have 15+ HR from each position across the diamond, aside from Hamilton. That's not bad HR power at all.

What's better than that, however, is that almost everyone on the team has above average extra base hit power for his position and that all but two would be well above average in terms of obp.

Assuming Hamilton's for real (a large assumption, I know), Cincinnati could suddenly own above average hitters (via wRC+) across every position on the diamond, with All Star-level production from 1B and 2B. (With luck and/or marginal improvement, that could also include 3B and all three OF spots.)

FlightRick
12-02-2012, 08:59 PM
The more I think about it, the more I lean towards doing this trade. Fowler immediately fixes lead-off for us, and assuming Billy Hamilton is what we hope he is, I think he'll also excel as a #2 hitter in 2014 and 2015. [He's just reaching his peak years, and has a big frame that might develop a bit more power. He could/should put up 15-20 HR in GABP. Hitting directly in front of Votto will only help him to see better pitches than he ever has in the past, too.]

Giving up Bailey is basically an "all-in" bet on Chapman moving into the rotation without any complications, and doing it while retaining electric/top-of-rotation stuff. In my mind, somehow there's a lot more need for Chapman to be uber-productive if he's replacing Bailey than if he were replacing Leake. It's probably just all in my head, and a matter of flawed perception... but this really is the stumbling block for me when it comes to moving Homer.

I think Fowler brings enough to the table for me to overcome that mental block. I roll it around in my brain, and basically here's what I figure: we sign Ludwick for 2-3 years, and we still have Stubbs. Taking everybody's splits into account, it's Ludwick in LF and Fowler in CF against RHP, and Fowler in LF and Stubbs in CF against LHP. This has the added benefit of keepign Ludwick fresh by sitting him once or twice a week (he did seem to wear down from time to time last year). If we sign Rolen on the cheap, and he gets a start or two per week, that frees up Frazier to make a spot start or two in the OF (maybe giving Bruce a night off against LHP, or providing more rest for Ludwick). And then you consider who's on the bench on any given night, and suddenly, Miguel F. Cairo isn't your #1 option as a pinch hitter, since you'll always have at least one genuinely dangerous option (Rolen, Stubbs, Ludwick) available at all times.

Once/if Hamilton arrives as an everyday CF, Stubbs is expendable, and Ludwick probably becomes a professional pinch hitter and our no-brainer DH in interleague situations, and that's not an entirely bad thing, either.

So yeah, I can definitely talk myself into doing Homer-for-Fowler, straight up....


Rick


EDIT TO ADD: Another thing worth considering is how much fun it would be to have a different "The Trade" to argue about for years. Assessing who won and who lost the trade would be a roller coaster ride of wackiness, with little to no agreement. I mean, for starters, all Fowler has to do is not be Stubbs, and many may consider that a victory in and of itself... on the other hand, if Homer tanks at Coors, others may point to park effects and opine that he would have stayed a very good pitcher if the Reds hadn't traded him. Smell the fun!!!

Scrap Irony
12-02-2012, 09:01 PM
I'd much prefer Leake, Arredondo, and Masset for Fowler deal and really think Colorado might bite on that.

mdccclxix
12-02-2012, 09:04 PM
If you get Fowler for Bailey you net 1 million dollars. Then look to move Stubbs and Masset for a few prospects that could help for minimum in the bullpen or bench. That frees up 7 million total to sign Ludwick and a AAAA vet starter.

cinreds21
12-02-2012, 09:07 PM
Why does everyone think Nick Masset is getting traded? He is coming off missing the entire year and is making over $3 million. A team isn't going to target him.

mdccclxix
12-02-2012, 09:11 PM
Why does everyone think Nick Masset is getting traded? He is coming off missing the entire year and is making over $3 million. A team isn't going to target him.

I was thinking salary dump, so the return would be nothing, or he would eat into whatever value was going from the Reds. Just thinking from a tight payroll perspective.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 09:12 PM
Fowler hit 13 last year and I don't really see him getting more than that.

This guy agrees with you: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/dexter-fowler-breaks-out-barely/

I don't. I see a drop in batting average, not power.

Randy's point is well taken. I'm not crazy about a club having any - let alone two - outfielders that aren't homer threats. This is one of the reasons I was so disappointed to hear that Hamilton was being moved from shortstop into the OF. Maybe the Reds are right that he can't cut it at short, but it was still disappointing to hear. However, I don't worry about Fowler. He may be best in the 1 or the 2 hole, but I'd feel good about him in the five hole on just about any team.

42 extra base hits in 454 at-bats is nothing to sneeze at. His isolated power was 66th in the majors among players with at least 502 plate appearances. Better than all qualifying Reds (including Brandon) except Jay Bruce.

Especially if the Reds continue to employ speed throughout the lineup, a double with ducks anywhere on the pond is going to drive in run(s).

RedlegJake
12-02-2012, 09:13 PM
If you get Fowler for Bailey you net 1 million dollars. Then look to move Stubbs and Masset for a few prospects that could help for minimum in the bullpen or bench. That frees up 7 million total to sign Ludwick and a AAAA vet starter.

For me Id take lower but better prospects one each just for Masset and Stubbs. Feed the beast. I don't see either bringing much ML ready talent back but they might bring a couple riskier but higher ceiling A or hiA talents. Just primes thepump when even great kids get chewed up as time goes and increases odds of better replacements in a couple years. Take care of this season first by landing a Fowler and re-upping Lud, then move some excess to refeed the system.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 09:20 PM
All of the advanced fielding metrics hate Fowler. Coors Field effect or is he not good out there? I haven't seen him enough to judge. The Rockies haven't been mlb.TV darlings the past couple years obviously, so I have only seen him when they play the Reds.

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD

I admit to never deconstructing exactly why the Coors outfielders are ranked so poorly by advanced fielding metrics. Is it because the "zones" they have to cover are larger?

He has been good enough to push a gold glover like CarGo to a corner, and it seems with the naked eye like he's getting jobbed by the metrics. But I'd be lying if I said I've looked into this topic in depth.

lollipopcurve
12-02-2012, 09:25 PM
If this deal happens, I'd think Stubbs would be in it with Bailey. I'd love for the Reds to get Chris Nelson back with Fowler.

nate
12-02-2012, 09:32 PM
What's wrong with Dexter Fowler's power?

He doesn't really have any.

Career slugging:
Home: .487
Away: .367

Based on park factors, it's possible he maintains or surpasses his HR total. It's also likely his doubles and triples will be suppressed by GABP vs. Coors.

He does have a cool first name though.

Wonderful Monds
12-02-2012, 09:57 PM
He doesn't really have any.

Career slugging:
Home: .487
Away: .367

Based on park factors, it's possible he maintains or surpasses his HR total. It's also likely his doubles and triples will be suppressed by GABP vs. Coors.

He does have a cool first name though.

Admittedly I thought he had hit around 20 HR for some reason because I remembered he had a good SLG pct.

Having said that, I really don't care about his career numbers given that he is still a developing player who's approaching his peak years. I think he could rather easily maintain his power from this year.

I don't really care about his home/road splits either. As someone already said, players who leave Coors tend to maintain their production somehow. If you play half your games in a park like that, you're going to alter your approach to fit that park. I imagine he would be just fine moving to GABP.

Revering4Blue
12-02-2012, 10:05 PM
If this deal happens, I'd think Stubbs would be in it with Bailey. I'd love for the Reds to get Chris Nelson back with Fowler.

Good point.

I'm fairly certain that O'Dowd doesn't view Tyler Colvin, though valuable in a utility role, as a full-time Center Fielder.

M2
12-02-2012, 10:11 PM
I'd love for the Reds to get Chris Nelson back with Fowler.

Me too. If the deal grows at all, then Nelson would be where I'd be focusing my attentions. He'd be a usable bat who can back up the whole IF.

cincinnati chili
12-02-2012, 10:15 PM
Oh I beg your pardon. I assumed that the Rockies would be dying to improve their starting pitching, but I guess they just plan on them all getting better. Whatever

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_22107583/rockies-have-pitching-plan-place-they-head-winter

Rockies have pitching plan in place as they head to winter meetings


There's no camouflaging the facts. Rockies starting pitchers posted a 29-68 record and 5.81 ERA in 2012. Simply put, they bombed.

Think the club is going to blow it all up and start from scratch? Think again.

The Rockies, despite a 98-loss season, view their starting rotation as a reclamation project. They are not planning to rebuild. They want to add help but insist they have a solid base in place, so long as left-hander Jorge De La Rosa and right-handers Jhoulys Chacin and Juan Nicasio stay healthy in 2013. They believe the addition of a veteran arm will add stability. They express confidence that one or two of their young starters will blossom to take a spot in the back of the rotation.

[read more at the link above]

RedsManRick
12-02-2012, 11:37 PM
Looking at Fowler's fangraphs page, his UZR has been consistently poor. Is that a Coors thing, an overrated-defender thing or a who-knows-with-UZR thing?

On the Fan Scouting Report, he's middle of the pack for CF, though he's actually quite similar to Stubbs with a weaker arm and worse first step... and I suppose a poor first step is a big problem in Coors.

mth123
12-03-2012, 02:33 AM
Not really liking the idea of Bailey for Fowler. I think CF can be addressed for lesser players. If a Corcino/Stubbs/Lotzkar package could net Fowler, I'd be OK with it.

cincinnati chili
12-03-2012, 03:44 AM
Looking at Fowler's fangraphs page, his UZR has been consistently poor. Is that a Coors thing, an overrated-defender thing or a who-knows-with-UZR thing?.

Quite possibly it is. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/374174-another-criticism-of-ultimate-zone-rating

"Iíve said before that I have my suspicions about fangraphs.comís ultimate zone ratings (UZR). One thing that it doesnít appear to take into account is what happens when outfielders play in very large ballparks."

gilpdawg
12-03-2012, 04:40 AM
Quite possibly it is. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/374174-another-criticism-of-ultimate-zone-rating

"I’ve said before that I have my suspicions about fangraphs.com’s ultimate zone ratings (UZR). One thing that it doesn’t appear to take into account is what happens when outfielders play in very large ballparks."

I don't think it's just UZR. Fowler grades badly in Defensive Runs Saved and FRAA, and has done so pretty much his entire time in the majors. If he would be replacement level in another park, and I think he may be higher potentially, then he's a 4-5 win player unless his bat falls off. I take defensive stats from weird outfields like Coors with a grain of salt.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

Superdude
12-03-2012, 06:30 AM
Looking at Fowler's fangraphs page, his UZR has been consistently poor. Is that a Coors thing, an overrated-defender thing or a who-knows-with-UZR thing?

On the Fan Scouting Report, he's middle of the pack for CF, though he's actually quite similar to Stubbs with a weaker arm and worse first step... and I suppose a poor first step is a big problem in Coors.

I noticed that too. Couple that with the questions about his bat outside of Coors and I'm a little worried about trading major pieces to Colorado for him.

Steve4192
12-03-2012, 09:31 AM
Oh I beg your pardon. I assumed that the Rockies would be dying to improve their starting pitching, but I guess they just plan on them all getting better. Whatever

LOL

That is hilariously awesome.

It is also reminiscent of the 2001 Reds pitching 'plan' of getting a full season out of Osvaldo Fernandez & Elmer Dessens, reclamation projects in Jose Rijo and Pete Harnisch, and a kiddie corps of Rob Bell, Chris Reitsma, Lance Davis, Jose Acevedo, & Brian Reith who were all ready to contribute in the big leagues.

REDREAD
12-03-2012, 09:52 AM
I think Fowler brings enough to the table for me to overcome that mental block. I roll it around in my brain, and basically here's what I figure: we sign Ludwick for 2-3 years, and we still have Stubbs.

I'd like to add Fowler, but if we are able to resign Ludwick, a lot of the urgency to acquire another OF is gone for me. I can wait for Billy H if they get a legit LF.

If we can't get Ludwick or a similiar LF, then I'd consider swapping Homer for Fowler. Otherwise, I'd rather keep the pitching intact, and use Stubbs as the stopgap in CF until Billy gets called up.

MikeS21
12-03-2012, 09:56 AM
Not really liking the idea of Bailey for Fowler. I think CF can be addressed for lesser players. If a Corcino/Stubbs/Lotzkar package could net Fowler, I'd be OK with it.
Agreed. To trade Bailey for a half-season rental who will be worthless trade fodder once Hamilton arrives at the Show (probably by June), is short-sighted and reeks of "Doing something to keep the fans happy" mentality.

M2
12-03-2012, 10:21 AM
Oh I beg your pardon. I assumed that the Rockies would be dying to improve their starting pitching, but I guess they just plan on them all getting better. Whatever

I noticed a while back that the Rox ranked 4th in the NL in pitching WAR last year. Got no idea how that anomaly formed, but maybe the organization believes it's real.

Steve4192
12-03-2012, 10:24 AM
Agreed. To trade Bailey for a half-season rental who will be worthless trade fodder once Hamilton arrives at the Show (probably by June), is short-sighted and reeks of "Doing something to keep the fans happy" mentality.

I disagree.

I am as big a Billy Hamilton fan as anyone, but counting on him to be a contributor to the major league team in 2013 is a recipe for disaster, for a number of reasons.

1. He only has 50 games of experience in the high minors and almost no experience at his expected MLB defensive position.

2. Even the best prospects flop sometimes.

3. Even if they don't flop, prospects often take time to find success in the majors.

The Reds need a real plan to ensure they get some production out of CF in 2013, and 'wait for Billy' is not a real plan. If the Reds put all their eggs in the Billy basket, what do they do if Billy can't replicate his 2012 minor league success? Or what if puts up good numbers in the minors and then turns into Willy Taveras once he reaches the majors? 'Wait for Billy' is not a plan, it's operating without a net.

The Reds need to address their leadoff/CF issues with guys are legit major league contributors right now, not a kid who might be a contributor some day down the line. If Billy forces his way to majors and into the lineup, the Reds will have a pleasant problem to deal with (too many quality OF), but they need to cover their bases just in case he doesn't.

Caveman Techie
12-03-2012, 10:24 AM
Agreed. To trade Bailey for a half-season rental who will be worthless trade fodder once Hamilton arrives at the Show (probably by June), is short-sighted and reeks of "Doing something to keep the fans happy" mentality.

You do realize Fowler is under team control till 2016? He is hardly a scrub, and would immediately solve the lead off problem the Reds have had.

I don't like the idea of giving up Homer just as he's starting to deliver on his ability, but I could be convinced.

RedEye
12-03-2012, 10:30 AM
No one is saying this right now - but isn't there a chance that Billy Hamilton doesn't work out? That his bat doesn't end up playing in the big leagues? If so, then it makes sense to get a guy like Fowler, who is under club control till 2016 and complements the pieces already in place on the major league roster. He's both a current fix and a potential longer term solution to the team's problems. If Billy succeeds, then the team has a downright scary top of the lineup in front of Votto, Bruce and Frazier. If not, well, they've got Fowler - and that, to my mind, is a good thing. Not getting Fowler because Hamilton "is going to come up and dominate by September 2013" seems like like a iffy approach to me. I want the Reds to be good in April 2013.

kaldaniels
12-03-2012, 10:41 AM
No one is saying this right now - but isn't there a chance that Billy Hamilton doesn't work out? That his bat doesn't end up playing in the big leagues? If so, then it makes sense to get a guy like Fowler, who is under club control till 2016 and complements the pieces already in place on the major league roster. He's both a current fix and a potential longer term solution to the team's problems. If Billy succeeds, then the team has a downright scary top of the lineup in front of Votto, Bruce and Frazier. If not, well, they've got Fowler - and that, to my mind, is a good thing. Not getting Fowler because Hamilton "is going to come up and dominate by September 2013" seems like like a iffy approach to me. I want the Reds to be good in April 2013.

You are correct. I'd say it is around a 50/50 proposition that Billy pans out in the bigs...which is typical for a great prospect.

Assuming he will be starting in CF come July is silly. It may happen, but we are talking about a kid who hasn't even hit AAA pitching yet.

mdccclxix
12-03-2012, 10:50 AM
Fowler in LF wouldn't be the worst as long as one of Frazier or Mesoraco (or both) end up with 20HR a season. Meanwhile we already have + slugging at the SS position with Cozart, so there seems to be enough going around the team for now. One thing is sure, if Fowler can get on base at 37%, he's a huge upgrade to the OF.

Benihana
12-03-2012, 11:01 AM
I don't think I do Bailey for Fowler right now.

There are too many available OF to make me believe it's a sellers market. I'd shop some combination of Leake, Corcino and Cingrani (and Stubbs) before I'd trade Bailey.

Not saying I wouldn't trade Bailey in the right deal, just not sure if it makes sense to give him up for Fowler without trying to use the other pieces to get a guy like Choo, Ellsbury, or even Justin Upton first. Or for that matter, using the other pieces to try to get Fowler.

If they include Pomeranz in the deal, that would make me think twice.

REDREAD
12-03-2012, 11:02 AM
I disagree.

I am as big a Billy Hamilton fan as anyone, but counting on him to be a contributor to the major league team in 2013 is a recipe for disaster, for a number of reasons.
.

That's a solid point.
I guess I have a different point of view.. Let's say hyptothetically that the Reds get a decent bat in LF.
Then there's not a whole lot of pressure to get offense out of CF , IMO.
People like to point out how bad Stubbs was last year in OBP.. that's reasonable, but it also means the bar for improvement from Billy is set pretty low. So I guess I'm ok with Billy starting next year, but not counting on him to be an offensive force.

Regardless of whether Billy H succeeds or not, the team is going to invest a lot of at bats in him.. If we sign Ludwick and trade for Fowler, what are we going to do with Billy? I guess we could trade him, but it seems like a team on a tight budget is going to give their top prospect every opportunity to succeed.

I guess I would only consider trading Homer for Fowler if every other option to add a quality OF was exhausted. I like Fowler, but Homer is a pretty steep price.
Now if the Rockies are willing to take some minor leaguers for Fowler, I'd be more willing to listen. The Rockies might prefer prospects as well.. Homer is about 2 years away from FA, right? Maybe I have the math wrong, but I figure Homer is going to be a FA long before they get good again.

Based on what some pitchers have said (such as Harnish), throwing a lot of fastballs is a great game plan in Coors.. You got to figure that the Rockies would be very interested in Cingrani (even if he's only a bullpenner), since Cingrani has that great FB..

Benihana
12-03-2012, 11:03 AM
That's a solid point.
I guess I have a different point of view.. Let's say hyptothetically that the Reds get a decent bat in LF.
Then there's not a whole lot of pressure to get offense out of CF , IMO.
People like to point out how bad Stubbs was last year in OBP.. that's reasonable, but it also means the bar for improvement from Billy is set pretty low. So I guess I'm ok with Billy starting next year, but not counting on him to be an offensive force.

Regardless of whether Billy H succeeds or not, the team is going to invest a lot of at bats in him.. If we sign Ludwick and trade for Fowler, what are we going to do with Billy? I guess we could trade him, but it seems like a team on a tight budget is going to give their top prospect every opportunity to succeed.

I guess I would only consider trading Homer for Fowler if every other option to add a quality OF was exhausted. I like Fowler, but Homer is a pretty steep price.
Now if the Rockies are willing to take some minor leaguers for Fowler, I'd be more willing to listen. The Rockies might prefer prospects as well.. Homer is about 2 years away from FA, right? Maybe I have the math wrong, but I figure Homer is going to be a FA long before they get good again.

Based on what some pitchers have said (such as Harnish), throwing a lot of fastballs is a great game plan in Coors.. You got to figure that the Rockies would be very interested in Cingrani (even if he's only a bullpenner), since Cingrani has that great FB..

Agree with these thoughts, particularly with trying to deal Cingrani, Corcino and/or Leake, first.

And apparently so does Fay: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/12/03/fowler-makes-sense-but-not-for-bailey/

Superdude
12-03-2012, 11:12 AM
Regardless of whether Billy H succeeds or not, the team is going to invest a lot of at bats in him.. If we sign Ludwick and trade for Fowler, what are we going to do with Billy? I guess we could trade him, but it seems like a team on a tight budget is going to give their top prospect every opportunity to succeed.

That's another good point. It's always easy to say having too many center fielders is good problem to have, but it seems like those positional logjams don't sort themselves out as cleanly as we'd like them too. If we're trading a major piece, I'd rather get a left fielder. That's both a current need and one that doesn't have an answer anywhere in the system.

M2
12-03-2012, 11:40 AM
Not saying I wouldn't trade Bailey in the right deal, just not sure if it makes sense to give him up for Fowler without trying to use the other pieces to get a guy like Choo, Ellsbury, or even Justin Upton first. Or for that matter, using the other pieces to try to get Fowler.

Good post (REDREAD too). Bailey potentially opens up the door to a lot of different moves. Jocketty's got to see what Homer's market is (e.g. maybe Upton). And I agree that it looks like a buyer's market. Billy Beane is practically going to give Coco Crisp away. While I'd much rather have Fowler, would you rather have him or Crisp and Bailey?

mdccclxix
12-03-2012, 11:56 AM
I would think the Rockies, with their long term commitments with Tulo and Cargo, are looking to contend sooner than later. Their pitching staff was so horrible last year, if they can turn it around to just below average, they could factor in that 5th wildcard scenario. Dealing with the Reds, who had the top staff, is a really good idea for them.

Scrap Irony
12-03-2012, 12:27 PM
Bailey + Crisp > Fowler + Leake

Bailey + Morgan > Fowler + Leake

Bailey + Fowler >>>>> Leake + Corcino + Heisey/ Stubbs + Ondrusek/ Arredondo

But...

Bailey + Fowler > Leake + Hoover??

jhu1321
12-03-2012, 12:32 PM
Bailey + Crisp > Fowler + Leake

Bailey + Morgan > Fowler + Leake

Bailey + Fowler >>>>> Leake + Corcino + Heisey/ Stubbs + Ondrusek/ Arredondo

But...

Bailey + Fowler > Leake + Hoover??

Despite all the differing opinions on trading for Fowler can we all just agree that under no circumstances should Nyjer Morgan be considered for the position.:thumbdown:

M2
12-03-2012, 01:39 PM
Despite all the differing opinions on trading for Fowler can we all just agree that under no circumstances should Nyjer Morgan be considered for the position.:thumbdown:

No. Morgan's a reasonable fallback plan. Sounds like Angel Pagan is going to get at least four years (no thank you on that). Bourn is going to receive a truckload of money. Victorino might get three years. If the trade market doesn't work out then a Morgan/Stubbs CF platoon is a potentially decent short-term solution.

Bill
12-03-2012, 02:36 PM
Fowler reminds me, in a vague sense, of Roberto Kelly, in more ways than one.

M2
12-03-2012, 02:55 PM
Fowler reminds me, in a vague sense, of Roberto Kelly, in more ways than one.

Kelly rarely took a pitch. Fowler does. I'd say that makes them fundamentally different breeds.

MikeS21
12-03-2012, 03:56 PM
I disagree.

I am as big a Billy Hamilton fan as anyone, but counting on him to be a contributor to the major league team in 2013 is a recipe for disaster, for a number of reasons.

1. He only has 50 games of experience in the high minors and almost no experience at his expected MLB defensive position.

2. Even the best prospects flop sometimes.

3. Even if they don't flop, prospects often take time to find success in the majors.

The Reds need a real plan to ensure they get some production out of CF in 2013, and 'wait for Billy' is not a real plan. If the Reds put all their eggs in the Billy basket, what do they do if Billy can't replicate his 2012 minor league success? Or what if puts up good numbers in the minors and then turns into Willy Taveras once he reaches the majors? 'Wait for Billy' is not a plan, it's operating without a net.

The Reds need to address their leadoff/CF issues with guys are legit major league contributors right now, not a kid who might be a contributor some day down the line. If Billy forces his way to majors and into the lineup, the Reds will have a pleasant problem to deal with (too many quality OF), but they need to cover their bases just in case he doesn't.
In a perfect world, I would agree with you 100%.

But baseball is still driven by attendance and money, and the PR value on Billy Hamilton is too great to pass up. If Hamilton shows ANY ability during Spring Training and April/May, the Reds are going to bring the cash cow to Cincinnati. Winning might put a few fans in the seats, but seeing Billy Hamilton will draw even more fans-just as fans come out to see the circus of Aroldis Chapman and his 100 mph fastball.

Fowler is a stop gap player-admittedly somewhat of an upgrade over Stubbs-who will lose trade value once he becomes Hamilton's back-up, and the rest of baseball sees him as a player the Reds HAVE to unload. The smart play is to fix LF, keep Phillips at leadoff, and stick with Stubbs in CF until Hamilton is ready.

I agree Hamilton has a LONG way to go before he should be promoted, and should not sniff the majors until he proves he can cut his K rate. I just have little confidence the Reds will exercise the proper patience to allow him to develop - especially in mid-summer when the DL gets populated, and the team needs a shot in the arm in order to keep up attendance.

mdccclxix
12-03-2012, 04:02 PM
I guess I'm one of the only ones who thinks Fowler in LF is OK for a year or two. I also think Fowler and Ludwick could be obtained, you just have to clear some payroll with Bailey, Leake, Stubbs, Massett, or others.

FWIW, Mike Minor came up in talks for Fowler between the Rox and Braves. I'd think Mike Leake is a better offer than that.

wally post
12-03-2012, 04:03 PM
I agree with you Mike. I think we need a RH power hitting left fielder. We badly need him. Stubbs or a Stubbs platoon in CF will suffice until we can bring up Hamilton if we can get a bopper in left field.

Bill
12-03-2012, 04:27 PM
Kelly rarely took a pitch. Fowler does. I'd say that makes them fundamentally different breeds.

That is more concise then I was intending. By vague, I meant the possibility of dealing for a 26-27 year old CF whom would help but is perhaps overrated to the degree of dealing a player ready to put it all together.

Fowler's three year away splits concern me and I can see a Kelly like career for him. Sure, he would look good at the top of the order, but I too would see if a CF can come cheaper.

cincinnati chili
12-03-2012, 04:31 PM
You are correct. I'd say it is around a 50/50 proposition that Billy pans out in the bigs...which is typical for a great prospect.

Assuming he will be starting in CF come July is silly. It may happen, but we are talking about a kid who hasn't even hit AAA pitching yet.

I think 50/50 to "pan out" is about right. I think the odds are even more unfavorable to Hamilton ever performing at the rate that Fowler has performed over the last year and a half. Especially now that he's not a shortstop anymore.

Benihana
12-03-2012, 04:48 PM
I guess I'm one of the only ones who thinks Fowler in LF is OK for a year or two. I also think Fowler and Ludwick could be obtained, you just have to clear some payroll with Bailey, Leake, Stubbs, Massett, or others.

FWIW, Mike Minor came up in talks for Fowler between the Rox and Braves. I'd think Mike Leake is a better offer than that.

Agreed and agreed. Leake seems quite similar to Minor.

If the Reds could sign Ludwick to a 1 year deal and trade Leake and Stubbs for Fowler, that sounds pretty good to me.

Then, if/when Hamilton proves he's ready, Reds could have Fowler in LF for 2014-2015 or trade him for a "real" thumping LF.

My guess is Ludwick wants more than 1 year though, and then that complicates things.

M2
12-03-2012, 05:35 PM
I agree with you Mike. I think we need a RH power hitting left fielder. We badly need him. Stubbs or a Stubbs platoon in CF will suffice until we can bring up Hamilton if we can get a bopper in left field.

I have nothing against RH power hitters. I like RH power hitters. Yet I live in a city with an addiction to RH power hitters. Apparently they are solution to any problem the Red Sox might have. Need to overhaul the pitching? Sign Mike Napoli.

So I say this with decades of experience in listening to calls for more RH power hitters: you almost never need a RH power hitter. The Reds have plenty RH bats in the lineup (in fact probably one or two too many) and almost all of them have a fair amount of power.

Wonderful Monds
12-03-2012, 08:58 PM
Guess we should pump the brakes on Fowler (and Crisp):
"Jocketty also cleared up rumors about the Reds' interest in Dexter Fowler and Coco Crisp, telling reporters, "We really haven’t talked to either club if that’s any indication. I’m not sure Colorado is moving Fowler." Jocketty said the Rockies have not brought up Homer Bailey's name to him, either.


Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/reds-have-offer-out-to-ludwick.html#b0zS4JHtxfi2uzdr.99 "

mth123
12-03-2012, 08:58 PM
No one is saying this right now - but isn't there a chance that Billy Hamilton doesn't work out? That his bat doesn't end up playing in the big leagues? If so, then it makes sense to get a guy like Fowler, who is under club control till 2016 and complements the pieces already in place on the major league roster. He's both a current fix and a potential longer term solution to the team's problems. If Billy succeeds, then the team has a downright scary top of the lineup in front of Votto, Bruce and Frazier. If not, well, they've got Fowler - and that, to my mind, is a good thing. Not getting Fowler because Hamilton "is going to come up and dominate by September 2013" seems like like a iffy approach to me. I want the Reds to be good in April 2013.

No question that Hamilton could flop. Thing is, there is also a pretty decent chance that Aroldis Chapman in the rotation doesn't work out either. The Reds won 97 games last year with the problems we have in CF. They were below .500 when the rotation was weak. Nobody is a bigger skeptic where Stubbs is concerned than I am, but that position can be improved quite a bit by dealing spare parts and minor leaguers for the right role player(s). The Rotation should be kept strong with only a deal being considered if its an offer we can't refuse. That is not a guy who is a question mark away from his home park and a question mark defensively. The Reds don't need more guys who are Superman at home and Lois Lane on the road. Even if GABP would approximate Coors, I'd prefer a more consistent performer if I'm giving up a guy like Homer. The Reds can get flawed guys who can provide situationally dependent production for a fraction of that cost.

RedsManRick
12-03-2012, 09:03 PM
I'm guessing the Reds are hoping to just bring back Ludwick and willing to wait out the market otherwise. As others have said, it's a buyers market for OF -- no need to rush.

Wonderful Monds
12-03-2012, 09:07 PM
I'm guessing the Reds are hoping to just bring back Ludwick and willing to wait out the market otherwise. As others have said, it's a buyers market for OF -- no need to rush.

Seems like it, and given how the team fared this year, a conservative approach might be the best approach.

cincrazy
12-03-2012, 09:39 PM
Wonder if we can land Bourn on a short term contract like we did Madson last year? Doesn't look like he's getting the contract he was expecting.

Vottomatic
12-04-2012, 08:15 AM
Based on payroll limitations, I think they possibly sign Ludwick if he'll do a 1-year deal (which I don't think he will). Then I think they will simply work to improve the team via trade, hoping to obtain a cheap young player still under control like Latos was.

MikeS21
12-04-2012, 08:24 AM
No question that Hamilton could flop. Thing is, there is also a pretty decent chance that Aroldis Chapman in the rotation doesn't work out either. The Reds won 97 games last year with the problems we have in CF. They were below .500 when the rotation was weak. Nobody is a bigger skeptic where Stubbs is concerned than I am, but that position can be improved quite a bit by dealing spare parts and minor leaguers for the right role player(s). The Rotation should be kept strong with only a deal being considered if its an offer we can't refuse. That is not a guy who is a question mark away from his home park and a question mark defensively. The Reds don't need more guys who are Superman at home and Lois Lane on the road. Even if GABP would approximate Coors, I'd prefer a more consistent performer if I'm giving up a guy like Homer. The Reds can get flawed guys who can provide situationally dependent production for a fraction of that cost.
I'm not "anti-Dexter Fowler." He would be somewhat of an upgrade over Drew Stubbs. My problem is trading someone like Homer Bailey for Fowler, when I know the Reds are going to push Hamilton for the PR it will bring.

But, as you said, this team won 97 games with Stubbs in CF. I do not feel as strong about replacing Stubbs as many folks do. I was around when they called for Caesar Geronimo's head as the "weakest link" back in the 70's. Stubbs isn't the main problem as long as they bat him down in the order. I certainly am satisfied to let him man CF until Billy Hamilton takes the job from him.

OldXOhio
12-04-2012, 08:28 AM
I'm not "anti-Dexter Fowler." He would be somewhat of an upgrade over Drew Stubbs. My problem is trading someone like Homer Bailey for Fowler, when I know the Reds are going to push Hamilton for the PR it will bring.

But, as you said, this team won 97 games with Stubbs in CF. I do not feel as strong about replacing Stubbs as many folks do. I was around when they called for Caesar Geronimo's head as the "weakest link" back in the 70's. Stubbs isn't the main problem as long as they bat him down in the order. I certainly am satisfied to let him man CF until Billy Hamilton takes the job from him.

So who hits at the top of the order then?

Scrap Irony
12-04-2012, 09:47 AM
I'm not "anti-Dexter Fowler." He would be somewhat of an upgrade over Drew Stubbs.

That 1.6 WAR is a pretty big deal. Too, Fowler gets a bad rap defensively due to the Coors Field dimensions, so he'd probably see a large upgrade there. If Stubbs reverts to his average season, there's little reason to make the deal. However, his trajectory is dead wrong for that to happen.

(I agree, fwiw, that Bailey is too much to ask. Leake is a far more likely target, IMO, along with a Corcino, Redmond, Lotzkar, or Cingrani, depending on how highly the Rocks value the former Arizona State star.)

Dan
12-07-2012, 12:32 PM
MLBTR (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/rockies-reds-have-discussed-fowler.html)


The Rockies and Reds have engaged in preliminary trade talks about Dexter Fowler, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Cincinnati could trade players from its MLB roster, but right-hander Homer Bailey will likely remain with the Reds, according to Rosenthal.

Color me as slightly in favor of this deal. I'm with Mike, that Stubbs batting down in the order isn't a bad thing for this team. But Fowler would be a slight upgrade and we're essentially trading spare parts. I'd like perhaps a solid AA prospect or even a lottery ticket coming back to the Reds, though.

Benihana
12-07-2012, 12:33 PM
MLBTR (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/rockies-reds-have-discussed-fowler.html)



Color me as slightly in favor of this deal. I'm with Mike, that Stubbs batting down in the order isn't a bad thing for this team. But Fowler would be a slight upgrade and we're essentially trading spare parts. I'd like perhaps a solid AA prospect or even a lottery ticket coming back to the Reds, though.

Leake, Stubbs and LaMarre for Fowler? Yes please.

Unfortunately I'm sure the Rox will ask for Cingrani or Corcino instead of LaMarre.

I would love to get Pomeranz coming back as well, although I'm sure that's unlikely.

M2
12-07-2012, 12:38 PM
Any thoughts on C-level prospects the Reds have that might interest the Rox? Lotzkar springs to mind.

And what's the statute of limitations on a PTBNL? I ask because I wonder if Travieso might get Dan O'Dowd's juices flowing.

jhu1321
12-07-2012, 12:45 PM
I don't see the Rockies doing that without Corcino or Cingranni included in the deal. Leake / Stubbs isn't enough for a starting CF in this market.

Puffy
12-07-2012, 12:45 PM
Leake, Stubbs and another prospect for Fowler. Count me in.

Would rather trade Corcino rather than Cingrini simply because I think Cingrini can be dominant bullpen guy now and in future.

Tom Servo
12-07-2012, 12:47 PM
I'd do Leake, Stubbs, and Cingrani, and I like Cingrani.

M2
12-07-2012, 12:55 PM
I don't see the Rockies doing that without Corcino or Cingranni included in the deal. Leake / Stubbs isn't enough for a starting CF in this market.

While I'm sure the Rox would want more than Leake and Stubbs, I'm not sure it necessarily has to rise to the Cingrani/Corcino level. If you look at what the Twins got for Span and Revere - and that pretty much defines the current CF trade market - Leake and Stubbs is a pretty decent haul.

Scrap Irony
12-07-2012, 12:57 PM
Any thoughts on C-level prospects the Reds might have that would interest the Rox? Lotzkar springs to mind.

And what's the statute of limitations on a PTBNL? I ask because I wonder if Travieso might get Dan O'Dowd's juices flowing.

C level guys that might interest O'Dowd:
Kyle Lotzkar-- Big arm. He's going to be a major leaguer at some point, likey as a reliever, but stranger things have happened. Needs to refine command.

Chad "Shark Bite" Rogers-- Solid stuff, great production. BOR guy right now, with a chance at more as he matures. Could be a solid middle reliever.

Tim Crabbe-- Big arm, success since being moved to 'pen. Could be a fast mover.

Redmond-- AAAA starter. May be enough of a starter to FIP 4.75 in his peak years. That may be enough for Colorado's fifth starter.

Donald Lutz-- Lots of power, decent wheels, lots of Ks. He's a gamble, but a good one as a third piece.

Netali Soto-- Young, powerful, and the Rocks need a 1B in a couple years.

Ryan Wright-- Should probably be playing 3B, but may stick as a utlility guy. Like the power. Gamer.

Tucker Barnhart-- Barring injury, will play in the majors, as his glove is too good. The question is his bat. Really solid third prospect in a deal, as he'll have value.

Josh Ravin-- Big-time arm, horrid results. Big gamble, but could become a dominant closer.

Were I the Rockies' GM, I'd target an upside guy like Yorman Rodriguez and hope for the switch to turn on. Leake, Stubbs, and Rodriguez isn't a bad haul for Colorado. (Of course, I'd probably demand Corcino instead of Stubbs-- or at least in additino-- as well, which would totally screw up the deal, so there's that.)

LoganBuck
12-07-2012, 01:04 PM
Colorado has a very large outfield. Is Eric Young the presumed heir to the CF job if they trade Fowler?

Scrap Irony
12-07-2012, 01:05 PM
Young and/or Tyler Colvin.

Will M
12-07-2012, 01:07 PM
While I'm sure the Rox would want more than Leake and Stubbs, I'm not sure it necessarily has to rise to the Cingrani/Corcino level. If you look at what the Twins got for Span and Revere - and that pretty much defines the current CF trade market - Leake and Stubbs is a pretty decent haul.

+1

adding one of the teams top prospects seems too much. Leake is underrated by some. If you look at stats like xFIP he rates as an average/above average pitcher.

LoganBuck
12-07-2012, 01:10 PM
Is Fowler good enough of a CF defensively? I ask because I honestly don't know, I watch very little Rockies baseball. How is his range, speed, and arm? His metrics don't jump off the page at you, and he has committed 14 errors in the last 2 seasons, Drew Stubbs has 8 for comparison.

Cedric
12-07-2012, 01:18 PM
Haven't focused much on Rockies. Is De La Rosa healthy and a possible fit? I'm not sure of finances either. If Cingriani goes with Leake the Reds would be in crisis mode with starting pitching depth.

Brutus
12-07-2012, 01:23 PM
CBS: Reds lost out on Revere, now setting their sights on Fowler...

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/21306590/reds-lost-out-on-revere-now-trying-for-fowler


It should come as no surprise to hear that the Reds tried for Ben Revere before he was traded from the Twins to the Phillies. They did try, according to sources.

It should come as no surprise that the Reds have talked to the Rockies about Dexter Fowler. They have talked, sources say, although with what the Rockies have been asking for Fowler (middle-of-the-rotation pitching), it's not clear that a deal can get done.

bucksfan2
12-07-2012, 01:35 PM
If the Reds could get Fowler without involving Bailey I would be ecstatic. I have to assume that Hamilton is untouchable as well as their last two #1 picks. I think Leake would be the centerpiece of the deal considering he has no place to go. If a young pitcher would need to be packaged I would prefer it to be Corcino considering the Reds would be without much of a backup option if Chapman struggles or a pitcher goes down to injury. Cingrani seems like he is almost to the level of being an ok option pitcher.

At this point I think Walt knows that going into the season with Stubbs at CF is unacceptable. I am glad to see them "rumored" but I think a move NEEDS to be made.

Edd Roush
12-07-2012, 01:35 PM
I don't really understand Walt wanting Revere more than Fowler. It must have to do with the glove, since Revere has had very strong defensive rankings, but as Dave Cameron pointed out in this article http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/phillies-pay-premium-for-ben-revere/, those defensive rankings are due to Revere playing a corner outfield spot. I agree with Cameron that Revere is likely not an elite defensive player and therefore, isn't likely worth the price the Phillies paid.

Fowler was very BABIP lucky in 2012, which produced an eye-popping .389 OBP. Either way, Fowler's high walk rates and good contact skills bode well for future .350+ OBP seasons. I like Fowler a lot, and with Span off the market, I would make a strong push for a Leake/Stubbs for Fowler trade.

M2
12-07-2012, 01:44 PM
I don't really understand Walt wanting Revere more than Fowler.

I don't know that he did. Sounds like he was talking about Revere, but he's talked about and to a lot of guys. In fact it's possible Walt was content to let Revere go to Philly figuring it made him the top suitor for Fowler or Bourn or whomever else he might have designs on.

Benihana
12-07-2012, 01:53 PM
I don't know that he did. Sounds like he was talking about Revere, but he's talked about and to a lot of guys. In fact it's possible Walt was content to let Revere go to Philly figuring it made him the top suitor for Fowler or Bourn or whomever else he might have designs on.

That would be a wise move. Offer Bourn a 1 year, $8MM deal. See if he takes it. In the meantime, offer up Leake and Stubbs for Fowler. When one shoe drops, pull the other offer.

If Bourn signs elsewhere, up the Fowler offer to include a non-top-5 prospect (Lotzkar?). See what happens then.

lollipopcurve
12-07-2012, 01:54 PM
Seems clear to me teams want Bailey, but Walt wants to trade other arms.

It may all come down to whether Homer will extend.

SidneySlicker
12-07-2012, 01:56 PM
While I would rather have Upton, I've kind of resigned to the fact that they don't really appear to be pursuing him. Fowler would be my next target. I'm going to be very disapointed if they don't do something to get another quality obp guy at the top of the order.

Edd Roush
12-07-2012, 01:59 PM
I don't know that he did. Sounds like he was talking about Revere, but he's talked about and to a lot of guys. In fact it's possible Walt was content to let Revere go to Philly figuring it made him the top suitor for Fowler or Bourn or whomever else he might have designs on.

You could be correct, and in fact, I hope you are correct. If the Reds can end this off-season with Ludwick, Bourne/Fowler, a solid lefty reliever and a decent backup infielder, Walt gets an A+ and he can keep on adding +s to that by extending Bailey and/or Latos to reasonable deals.

Scrap Irony
12-07-2012, 02:37 PM
You could be correct, and in fact, I hope you are correct. If the Reds can end this off-season with Ludwick, Bourne/Fowler, a solid lefty reliever and a decent backup infielder, Walt gets an A+ and he can keep on adding +s to that by extending Bailey and/or Latos to reasonable deals.

Ludwick's at least 50/50 to stick in Cincinnati.
Fowler looks like a distinct possibility.
LH reliver-- Cingrani?
Backup infielder-- Emmanuel Burriss

I'd like to see what Lance Berkman will make if Ludwick doesn't work out. I don't think he'll go for more than $8 million for two years. Lots of obp, very good power numbers, and he can play LF, IMO, adequately enough. Of course, with Berkman, they'd also need someone like Rolen as a 3B backup. Frazier could play everyday at either 3B or LF, and both old guys could play 100 games or so. (They'd also be a really solid bench bat between them.)

Edd Roush
12-07-2012, 02:42 PM
Ludwick's at least 50/50 to stick in Cincinnati.
Fowler looks like a distinct possibility.
LH reliver-- Cingrani?
Backup infielder-- Emmanuel Burriss

I'd like to see what Lance Berkman will make if Ludwick doesn't work out. I don't think he'll go for more than $8 million for two years. Lots of obp, very good power numbers, and he can play LF, IMO, adequately enough. Of course, with Berkman, they'd also need someone like Rolen as a 3B backup. Frazier could play everyday at either 3B or LF, and both old guys could play 100 games or so. (They'd also be a really solid bench bat between them.)

I don't know if I like converting Cingrani to the bullpen unless the Reds are sure that he won't be able to cut it as a big league starter. Of course, if the Reds are tapped out financially after signing Ludwick and factoring in Fowler, and have to move Cingrani to that slot to be able to afford the other two, I would be fine with it. I am sure Cingrani could be a solid reliever, but I would rather sign a proven, solid lefty reliever and leave Cingrani in AAA as starting pitching depth.

As for Burriss, I would really like for the Reds to add someone who isn't allergic to first base, rather than relying on Burriss.

mattfeet
12-07-2012, 02:43 PM
Ludwick's at least 50/50 to stick in Cincinnati.
Fowler looks like a distinct possibility.
LH reliver-- Cingrani?
Backup infielder-- Emmanuel Burriss

I'd like to see what Lance Berkman will make if Ludwick doesn't work out. I don't think he'll go for more than $8 million for two years. Lots of obp, very good power numbers, and he can play LF, IMO, adequately enough. Of course, with Berkman, they'd also need someone like Rolen as a 3B backup. Frazier could play everyday at either 3B or LF, and both old guys could play 100 games or so. (They'd also be a really solid bench bat between them.)

People here nearly crucified Gomes and Alonso for their LF defense? Do you REALLY think Berkman is a good idea? I think he'll go to a team to primarily DH and occasionally play 1B.

Tom Servo
12-07-2012, 03:22 PM
The Reds have also been linked to Alejandro De Aza and Skip Schumaker. I wouldn't be shocked to see Walt walk away from negotiations with the Rox if he thinks they are asking too much and instead get a one of those guys for a platoon with Stubbs.

757690
12-07-2012, 03:30 PM
Call me crazy, but I would trade Homer straight up for Fowler.

I think Bailey benefited from facing the Astros, Pirates and Cubs five times in his last seven starts, to give the appearance that he has turned a corner. He definitely progressed, but really just from a #5 starter to a #3 or 4 starter. I see him and Leake as interchangeable in terms of production in the coming years, with Leake being cheaper and under contol for more years. I think because of Homer's no-no, his trade value is higher, and the Reds should take advantage of that.

I also think that if the Reds do trade either Homer or Leake, they need to pick up some extra arms for rotation depth. Even if Chapman is a success in the rotation, they will likely need a few other starters throughout the season.

Brutus
12-07-2012, 03:41 PM
Call me crazy, but I would trade Homer straight up for Fowler.

I think Bailey benefited from facing the Astros, Pirates and Cubs five times in his last seven starts, to give the appearance that he has turned a corner. He definitely progressed, but really just from a #5 starter to a #3 or 4 starter. I see him and Leake as interchangeable in terms of production in the coming years, with Leake being cheaper and under contol for more years. I think because of Homer's no-no, his trade value is higher, and the Reds should take advantage of that.

I also think that if the Reds do trade either Homer or Leake, they need to pick up some extra arms for rotation depth. Even if Chapman is a success in the rotation, they will likely need a few other starters throughout the season.

I don't think you're crazy. I think that's a perfectly reasonable deal.

Edd Roush
12-07-2012, 04:14 PM
I wouldn't necessarily hate a Homer for Fowler trade, but the reason I like Homer so much more than Leake is upside. Homer frequently flashes his ace stuff and did so even more often towards the end of the year, and Leake looks like he is what he always be, which is a mid-rotation starter. I like Leake a lot. He does have value, but not as much as Homer.

Benihana
12-07-2012, 04:16 PM
I wouldn't necessarily hate a Homer for Fowler trade, but the reason I like Homer so much more than Leake is upside. Homer frequently flashes his ace stuff and did so even more often towards the end of the year, and Leake looks like he is what he always be, which is a mid-rotation starter. I like Leake a lot. He does have value, but not as much as Homer.

This.

Scrap Irony
12-07-2012, 04:18 PM
Call me crazy, but I would trade Homer straight up for Fowler.

I think Bailey benefited from facing the Astros, Pirates and Cubs five times in his last seven starts, to give the appearance that he has turned a corner. He definitely progressed, but really just from a #5 starter to a #3 or 4 starter. I see him and Leake as interchangeable in terms of production in the coming years, with Leake being cheaper and under contol for more years. I think because of Homer's no-no, his trade value is higher, and the Reds should take advantage of that.

I also think that if the Reds do trade either Homer or Leake, they need to pick up some extra arms for rotation depth. Even if Chapman is a success in the rotation, they will likely need a few other starters throughout the season.

You're crazy. (You told me to!)

Bailey is only a year and a half older and is a free agent one year earlier than Leake. That has value, certainly. However, when I see Bailey's stats, I see his WHIP dropping four years in a row. His BB rate? Declined four years in a row. He's striking people out at a relatively high rate and has consistently for three years. Leake, meanwhile, is up and down. He gives up more hits and Ks less. He gives up more HR. In terms of scouting, Leake's short on stuff, long on moxie. But it'll take him a few years to find himself. Overall, Leake, despite better control, lost 20 points of obp to Bailey last season.

As to whether Bailey's numbers were a result of pitching against the weaker sisters of the NL, Leake's OPS against against the Cubs, Pirates, and Astros is around a 770 in 312 PAs. Bailey's OPS against those three teams was more than 100 points lower in almost exactly the same number of PAs. And that's about what their difference is overall, too-- about 100 OPS points. Good teams and bad teams get much better wood on Leake's offerings.

Were I the Red GM, that's a price I'd gladly pay.

In short, Bailey > Leake.

Too, if one of them is dealt, I think they'll likely look for another Brett Tomko type to stash in AAA. However, a prospect like Daniel Corcino or Tony Cingrani, a suspect like Redmond, or a middle reliever like LeCure (or perhaps Cingrani or Hoover) could make couple starts, if need be.

Chip R
12-07-2012, 04:27 PM
Is Fowler good enough of a CF defensively? I ask because I honestly don't know, I watch very little Rockies baseball. How is his range, speed, and arm? His metrics don't jump off the page at you, and he has committed 14 errors in the last 2 seasons, Drew Stubbs has 8 for comparison.

Does it matter? A lot of people don't care for Stubbs defensively and say his CF ability is all based on speed. GABP doesn't have the huge CF they have in COLO so there would certainly be less ground to patrol thus less of a chance to let a ball drop. If he were here he wouldn't be playing in SD and SF several times a year - both parks also having large OFs.

nate
12-07-2012, 08:33 PM
I thought this (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fowler-vs-stubbs-marginal-improvement-or-more/) was an interesting article on the Fowler/Stubbs comparison. Key graph:


The difference between Dexter Fowler and Drew Stubbs is there. Itís not a grand chasm, and not one worth a budding starter like Homer Bailey. But if the Reds can pick up Fowler for a replaceable talent like Mike Leake, the flexibility and depth they would pick up in the outfielder would be worth the cost.

757690
12-07-2012, 09:12 PM
I thought this (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fowler-vs-stubbs-marginal-improvement-or-more/) was an interesting article on the Fowler/Stubbs comparison. Key graph:

Two points about the article.

1. Look at the graph and you will see Fowlers production improving, and Stubbs' production declining. I'm a big Stubbs fan, but even I think that Fowler is much more than just a one and a half win improvement over Stubbs. Stubbs has hit a wall when it comes to hitting, while Fowler keeps getting better.

2. If you go by xFIP and Sierra, Bailey and Leake are almost identical. Bailey is a bright shiny thing because of his finish last year, but really all he did was catch up to his peripherals. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that they have similar seasons in 2013 if both stay with the Reds.

So basically, I think there is a much bigger gap between Fowler and Stubbs than the author, but a much smaller one between Bailey and Leake.

I love Cameron and Fangraphs overall, but the articles he farms out are some of the worst in the sabermetric community, imo.

nate
12-07-2012, 09:33 PM
Two points about the article.

1. Look at the graph and you will see Fowlers production improving, and Stubbs' production declining. I'm a big Stubbs fan, but even I think that Fowler is much more than just a one and a half win improvement over Stubbs. Stubbs has hit a wall when it comes to hitting, while Fowler keeps getting better.

2. If you go by xFIP and Sierra, Bailey and Leake are almost identical. Bailey is a bright shiny thing because of his finish last year, but really all he did was catch up to his peripherals. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that they have similar seasons in 2013 if both stay with the Reds.

So basically, I think there is a much bigger gap between Fowler and Stubbs than the author, but a much smaller one between Bailey and Leake.

I love Cameron and Fangraphs overall, but the articles he farms out are some of the worst in the sabermetric community, imo.

Great!

Much like 10cc, I'm not in love with any of the players involved but I think if I had to make a decision in five minutes, I'd rather trade Mike Leake + someone for Fowler than Homer Bailey (and maybe someone.)

mdccclxix
12-07-2012, 10:29 PM
Fowler has always had a good idea at the plate and gotten on base at a high rate.

WVPacman
12-07-2012, 11:23 PM
Sorry if already posted!!

http://buzztap.com/link.jsp?id=19064226&cid=100&source=feed&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

traderumor
12-08-2012, 09:23 AM
I could see this happening for the mere fact that the Rockies are in a period of incompetency, with no less than the "75 pitch limit" rotation strategy as Exhibit A. They just traded Alex White, the centerpiece of the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, for Wilton Lopez. So, they just completed the whiff on the Jimenez deal. Maybe they will buy into Leake's "GB pitcher when he's on" montra and "change of scenery" for Stubbs (what else could there be?) and take that for Fowler because of "Coors effect" risk. I know I'd be happy with that deal.

Sabo Fan
12-08-2012, 10:09 AM
I could see this happening for the mere fact that the Rockies are in a period of incompetency, with no less than the "75 pitch limit" rotation strategy as Exhibit A. They just traded Alex White, the centerpiece of the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, for Wilton Lopez. So, they just completed the whiff on the Jimenez deal. Maybe they will buy into Leake's "GB pitcher when he's on" montra and "change of scenery" for Stubbs (what else could there be?) and take that for Fowler because of "Coors effect" risk. I know I'd be happy with that deal.

I think Pomeranz was considered the centerpiece of the Ubaldo deal, but I see your point, O'Dowd does seem to whiff on a lot of his moves, the fact that Jimenez has struggled in Cleveland notwithstanding. Seems like a team that spins its wheels continuously and is ripe for the picking.

Stubbs, Leake and a Lotzkar-level prospect seems about right to me. I'd still have rather traded for Span or Upton, but that's another conversation entirely), but Fowler would be a nice consolation prize.

Maybe Walt can sell the Rockies on the fact that Leake could flat-out rake in Coors.

Benihana
12-08-2012, 11:19 AM
Sorry if already posted!!

http://buzztap.com/link.jsp?id=19064226&cid=100&source=feed&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Renck and Rosenthal seem to think it would be Leake, Stubbs + a catching prospect.

Leake, Stubbs, and Barnhart for Fowler.

Done and done.



If they're willing to include Pomeranz, I'd throw in Corcino or Cingrani. Pomeranz and Chapman could combine for 220 IP of a nasty left-handed starting pitcher.

lollipopcurve
12-08-2012, 12:35 PM
Leake, Stubbs, and Barnhart for Fowler.

Too much, IMO. I hope the Reds do not deal Barnhart. Good defensive catcher, switch-hitter, all the intangibles. Hold onto him.

I'd prefer the Reds go with a one-year stopgap who costs less talent, now that we know Ludwick will be in LF for at least 2 years. Maybe they can get Ellsbury or Bourn (or Crisp) to do that.

M2
12-08-2012, 12:46 PM
now that we know Ludwick will be in LF for at least 2 years.

Just because he's signed doesn't mean he'll be able to keep the job. Be happy if the Reds get one more good year out of Ludwick. His primary value to the 2014 Reds could be as trade bait, at least provided the team has another LF option in tow (e.g. Fowler).

mdccclxix
12-08-2012, 01:40 PM
Why do the Rox need a catcher, they have Rosario who just hit 20+ hr as a rookie

RedEye
12-08-2012, 01:55 PM
Why do the Rox need a catcher, they have Rosario who just hit 20+ hr as a rookie

I thought it was the Rays who needed a catcher and were looking to jump into a possible Fowler - Leake deal to get Mes.

lollipopcurve
12-08-2012, 02:23 PM
Why do the Rox need a catcher, they have Rosario who just hit 20+ hr as a rookie

You can always use a solid backup, which is what Barnhart currently projects as. But Rosario may be seen as a 1B long-term. I think his defense is suspect.