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Vottomatic
12-02-2012, 09:04 AM
I'm bored, and I saw them bantering about on the Sundeck what it would take to get him, and thought it might make for some interesting proposals.

They think the conversation starts with Hamilton. I don't do the deal if it does.

According to the Cincinnati Reds website, here are their top 20 prospects:

1. Hamilton
2. Stephenson
3. Cingrani
4. Corcino
5. Gregorius
6. Travieso
7. Lamarre
8. Lotzkar
9. Soto, Neftali
10. Wright, Ryan
11. Buckley, Sean
12. Greene, Brodie
13. Romano, Sal
14. Winker, Jesse
15. Cisco, Drew
16. Rodriguez, Henry
17. Rosa, Gabriel
18. Waldrop, Kyle
19. Rodriguez, Yorman
20. Garrett, Amir

I'm surprised Donald Lutz isn't on there. But oh well.

First off, I'd consider trading them Chapman, and not Hamilton. I'd love to not trade either. But if I trade them Chapman, then the rest of the compensation won't be that much.

1. Offer them 1 of either Leake/Bailey. If they're trying to keep down payroll, they choose Leake.
2. Ondrusek, Stubbs (throw-in).
3. Stephenson, Corcino, Gregorius, Lamarre, Lotzkar, Soto, Lutz, Yorman Rodriguez, Juan Duran.

Degenerate39
12-02-2012, 09:22 AM
Hamilton, Leake, Corcino and Soto

mth123
12-02-2012, 09:22 AM
I'll play.

Heisey, Mesoraco, Corcino, Soto and Lotzkar for Stanton and Rob Brantley

Vottomatic
12-02-2012, 09:26 AM
I'll play.

Heisey, Mesoraco, Corcino, Soto and Lotzkar for Stanton and Rob Brantley

Yeah, I forgot about Mez. I'd include him in the deal.

Vottomatic
12-02-2012, 09:29 AM
What if the Marlins would accept Chapman and Hamilton straight up for Stanton? Would you do that deal? :scared:

kaldaniels
12-02-2012, 09:36 AM
Hamilton and Bailey as the centerpieces. Or Chapman alone as centerpiece.

Otherwise it would be too easy for another team that wants him to top the Reds offer.

kaldaniels
12-02-2012, 09:37 AM
What if the Marlins would accept Chapman and Hamilton straight up for Stanton? Would you do that deal? :scared:

If Stanton would extend right now, I would do that.

Dan
12-02-2012, 12:02 PM
My offer starts with Chapman and Hamilton.

Brutus
12-02-2012, 01:13 PM
My offer starts with Chapman and Hamilton.

I don't mean anything personal when I say this, but that's absurd.

Stanton isn't worth that. He's good but that's a ransom.

cinreds21
12-02-2012, 01:43 PM
Yes he is.

alexad
12-02-2012, 01:47 PM
Chapman is going nowhere!!

RedRoser
12-02-2012, 03:50 PM
I really believe Chapman will be going somewhere.
To the Reds starting rotation that is! LOL

Vottomatic
12-02-2012, 04:46 PM
I go back and forth. I really want to see Billy Hamilton play for the Reds. But if Hamilton and a couple of other good prospects could get Stanton, I'd really have to consider it.

And if we could get Fowler to leadoff to go along with it.............I don't think I'd be too upset.

RedEye
12-02-2012, 06:05 PM
I'd hesitate more about dealing Chapman than Hamilton, in general. But I would lose zero sleep about making either one the centerpiece for a Stanton deal. Both? I'd have to think about that for awhile...

Dan
12-03-2012, 05:56 AM
I don't mean anything personal when I say this, but that's absurd.

Stanton isn't worth that. He's good but that's a ransom.

Um Stanton is a generational talent. He's definitely worth it. He's putting up Hank Aaron and Griffey Jr. numbers. You're telling me you wouldn't move heaven and earth to acquire either of them after they only spent two years I'm the majors?

jojo
12-03-2012, 10:27 AM
I'd trade Chapman and Hamilton in a deal for Stanton. I think Stanton makes it more likely the Reds are WS contenders the next three years.

Blitz Dorsey
12-03-2012, 10:39 AM
Not to hijack the thread, but Ryan LaMarre 7th on that list is one of the funniest things I've ever seen. Did they mean 77th? 107th?

RedsManRick
12-03-2012, 11:17 AM
I'd trade Chapman and Hamilton in a deal for Stanton. I think Stanton makes it more likely the Reds are WS contenders the next three years.

Agreed. I don't think some people realize how young he is. Mike Stanton is just the 9th player to have more than 1450 PA and a 140 OPS+ through his age 22 season and the first since Mickey Mantle in 1954. The rest of the list: Eddie Mathews ('54), Ted Williams ('41), Mel Ott ('31), Jimmie Foxx ('30), Rogers Hornsby ('18), Ty Cobb ('09), Sherry Magee ('07).

Obviously that's cherry picking a little with the PA cutoff, but it also just happens to be true. Three full seasons of HOF caliber hitting by age 22 is a pretty darn elite group. And even if you drop the PA cutoff to 1000, the list only expands to 16, with Pujols ('02) and Curt Belfary ('66) joining Stanton as the only guys since Mantle to do it.

If you want a fuller picture, you can use 10 rWAR through age 22 as a cutoff instead. That's a group of 38 players. At Stanton's 12.0 rWAR it's a list of 38, including just Jason Heyward, Andruw Jones, ARod, Griffey Jr. and Rickey Henderson since 1980.

Chapman and Hamilton certainly has the possibility of being more valuable, especially if Chapman pans out as a starter, but in terms of winning now and keeping upside, Stanton makes a big difference.

mattfeet
12-03-2012, 11:45 AM
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS

Agent joel wolfe says giancarlo feels "same" since unhappy tweet after trade. "It wasn't a reaction, it's a state of mind."

----

Go get him, Walt.

Scrap Irony
12-03-2012, 12:44 PM
I'd do Hamilton and Chapman, and I love both.

I also think the Marlins might be willing to do that, but Bud Selig wouldn't allow it.

kaldaniels
12-03-2012, 01:01 PM
I'd do Hamilton and Chapman, and I love both.

I also think the Marlins might be willing to do that, but Bud Selig wouldn't allow it.

I think that is kinda a fair deal. I don't know why Bud would veto that.

Brutus
12-03-2012, 01:22 PM
Yes he is.

No he's really not. Stanton had a very good 5.8 WAR. But Chapman had 3.3 WAR as a reliever. As a starter, it's likely that will nearly double.

So no, he's not worth throwing in Billy Hamilton on top of it.

Brutus
12-03-2012, 01:24 PM
Um Stanton is a generational talent. He's definitely worth it. He's putting up Hank Aaron and Griffey Jr. numbers. You're telling me you wouldn't move heaven and earth to acquire either of them after they only spent two years I'm the majors?

There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.

REDREAD
12-03-2012, 01:29 PM
I'd do Hamilton and Chapman, and I love both.

I also think the Marlins might be willing to do that, but Bud Selig wouldn't allow it.

I am trying to remember.. has Bud ever nixed a deal?
I don't think he has (someone please remind me otherwise).
Bud is an owner's puppet.. if an owner wants to salary dump or whatever, he's going to let them.. He certainly didn't care about the Miami-Toronto deal, the Red Sox-Dodgers deal and many other salary dumps.

The Marlins would likely get some very good prospects for Stanton.. Even if they traded away Stanton for a nickel.. I doubt Bud would care or intervene.

Dan
12-03-2012, 01:45 PM
There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.

Except for perhaps Trout, none of those players was 22 or under. (I haven't checked) And Griffey's first 7+ WAR season (using b-r.com) wasn't until his age 23 season.

jojo
12-03-2012, 02:47 PM
There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.

First, Stanton was a 6 WAR player in only 500 PAs of playing time. The players ahead of him on that list achieved their WAR with an average of 165 more PAs. Basically they had the benefit of roughly playing a quarter of the season more than Stanton. Only two players had greater than 5.8 WAR when their playing time was normalized to Stanton's (Trout and Posey). Or to put it another way, if Stanton was normalized to the average playing time of the guys above him, he was on pace to be a 7.7 WAR player.

Second, how many were 22 or younger? (hint: 2: Heyward and Trout). The average age of the 17 position players you're referring to is 28. It's not really fair to compare Stanton at age 22 to Jr during his peak years though when using important context such as playing time and age, Staton is hanging right with young Jr. That said, I think most would concede that Stanton is probably likely to be somewhere below the career of one of the top 5 centerfielders of all time but Stanton is not at his peak and he could easily be a 7 to 10 WAR guy at age 28. The guy is a very unique, elite trueskill player.

Third, Chapman is a relief pitcher. He was one of the most dominating bullpen arms in the majors last year and was only worth 3.3 WAR. He may become a dominant starter. He MAY. Right now it's counting unhatched chickens. Speaking of unhatched chickens, that's what Hamilton is as well. Would Chapman's WAR double as a starter? How many starting pitchers posted a WAR over 6 last season? (hint 2: Verlander and King Felix). It generally takes such an arm somewhere in the neighborhood of 230-250 innings to do it. Is Chapman a lock to ever pitch 230 innings? If he did, would he do it with a FIP around 3 or lower? As unhatched chickens go, it seems writing Chapman in as a 6.5 WAR pitcher in ink is assuming a great deal.

When talking about a team that should contend for the WS over the next several seasons, i'll take a bird in the hand over two in the bush.

hebroncougar
12-03-2012, 03:10 PM
I'd deal both for Stanton in a heartbeat. Hamilton is a maybe. Chapman is a maybe as a starter. Stanton IS an elite player. Don't think it will happen, but I'd do it and not think twice about it.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

WildcatFan
12-03-2012, 05:01 PM
I'd do both for Stanton, and I wouldn't even have to think about it that long. You keep the same rotation as last season, bat Phillips at leadoff, Votto-Stanton-Bruce in your big spots, and deal with Stubbs batting 8th and shagging all the fly balls in center. That's quite a team.

hebroncougar
12-03-2012, 05:31 PM
This would be kind of similar to the Maybin/Miller/others deal for Cabrera and Willis. I know, I now Chapman is more valuable than Miller, but I think Stanton is more valuable than Cabrera due to defense.

Brutus
12-03-2012, 07:16 PM
This would be kind of similar to the Maybin/Miller/others deal for Cabrera and Willis. I know, I now Chapman is more valuable than Miller, but I think Stanton is more valuable than Cabrera due to defense.

Cabrera's WAR was 5.6 when he was traded. Stanton's is 5.8. The difference, though, is Chapman put up nearly 3.5 WAR in less than 80 innings. Andrew Miller had pitched 74 MLB innings with a 5.72 ERA at the time he was traded.

wlf WV
12-03-2012, 07:22 PM
I believe it would take at least a Latos type offer,and he seems worth it.I'm buying.

cinreds21
12-03-2012, 08:30 PM
As a Marlins fan first and knowing the Reds system, I believe it would have to be a Latos-type deal at least. It would be more of a Texieria-type deal to get it done.

Chapman, Hamilton, and if they think he could play second, Didi. If I was the Marlins front office I wouldn't answer Walt's calls, texts or emails until those three names were on the table.

cincrazy
12-03-2012, 08:36 PM
There's literally no chance the Marlins trade Stanton. Not now, anyways. I read a report somewhere that said Selig probably wouldn't even allow it if they tried. You can only alienate your fans so much.

hebroncougar
12-03-2012, 09:55 PM
Cabrera's WAR was 5.6 when he was traded. Stanton's is 5.8. The difference, though, is Chapman put up nearly 3.5 WAR in less than 80 innings. Andrew Miller had pitched 74 MLB innings with a 5.72 ERA at the time he was traded.

Hence the "Chapman is more valuable than Miller"......

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

FlightRick
12-04-2012, 01:12 AM
Chapman, Hamilton, and if they think he could play second, Didi. If I was the Marlins front office I wouldn't answer Walt's calls, texts or emails until those three names were on the table.

I'm not discounting the insight, here.... but from a Reds' perspective, would I be entirely too off base if I suggested that retaining Hamilton would be a key to any trade acquiring Stanton?

My thinking is: Hamilton is not a guarantee to be an everyday MLB CF, because his bat is just too big a question. But by adding Stanton to the line-up, you significantly lower the floor for Hamilton to be a useful piece versus if you have Ludwick (or Fowler, or somebody else who lacks Stanton's production). He can be a pure slap-hitting, walk-taking lead-off man, who nominally out-produces Stubbs... but if we have Phillips/Votto/Stanton/Bruce behind him, who the hell cares? Right?

It's when you put together a line-up with a Phillips or Fowler (or Frazier) out of position that you suddenly need Hamilton to be the superstar that everybody's already making him out to be. But he isn't that. Yet.

If there's a way to get Stanton, then you're also greatly enhancing the chances of Hamilton becoming a useful peice, IMO. Even if he just becomes Stubbs with OBP and SLG inverted, I'll take it, and I'll pay Chapman-plus-more to get him. Just as long as the "more" isn't Hamilton. Getting Stanton helps maximize Hamilton, so you have to have them both to make that work.


Rick

Vottomatic
12-04-2012, 08:11 AM
There's literally no chance the Marlins trade Stanton. Not now, anyways. I read a report somewhere that said Selig probably wouldn't even allow it if they tried. You can only alienate your fans so much.

Stanton might have something to say about that. Based on his tweets, he's extremely ticked by the Marlins management trading all the key pieces away and him being stuck on what is sure to be a bottomdweller. I would think if a viable trade offer were made (Herschel Walker-type haul), that Selig would have no problem with it. And if Selig intervened and shut it down, I bet Stanton would get the players union involved and his own attorneys and agent.

Back to the trade.......more thoughts......

1. I've stated many times on other threads that going to the ballpark or even watching on TV..........it's like electricity in the air when Chapman comes in to close a ballgame, wondering if you're going to see the radar gun flash 101 or 102 or even higher. And then possibly watching him K the side and the enjoyment of watching the faces of cluelessness of the opposing batters. Simply put, Chapman is fun. And he puts butts in the seats and viewers on TV.

2. Billy Hamilton has that same potential as Chapman. If he can hit major league pitching, get on base at a high clip, and wreak havoc on the basepaths, the fans will come out by tickets or TV. Either way it helps the team revenue, either by ticket sales/concession sales or a future new TV package. I am looking forward to Billy's first major league stolen base. And if he puts on a show and steals 80 to 100+ bases..........you know we'll all be glued to it.

3. I'm the one constantly throwing out Stanton's name and even starting threads about acquiring him. But I tend to agree with Brutus that while he is really good, young, and under control for awhile........he isn't great yet. If the Reds offered Bailey, Corcino or Cingrani, Stephenson, and Mez, and even threw in Stubbs.........I think that would be a nice haul for the Marlins. A #3 major league starting pitcher who is starting to really impress, and then a choice of the Reds #2 or #3 top prospect which are triple A pitchers (Cingrani/Corcino), a former #1 pick and top 5 prospect in Stephenson, and then another former #1 pick in Mez who has major league experience but probably needs to play everyday. I think an offer like that is overpayment, but a serious haul that most teams would be crazy to turn down. And the positive for the Reds is it doesn't involve Hamilton or Chapman, and they get to keep one of either Cingrani or Corcino for the future. I'm down on Mez and think he is a catching version of Stubbs. While I'm guilty of proposing it, I think it's overpayment. Frankly I think Bailey, Corcino, and Mez would be fair enough.

PuffyPig
12-04-2012, 08:57 AM
. I'm down on Mez and think he is a catching version of Stubbs.

There is nothing in their minor league performances which suggest that they are alike in anyway.


Subbs as always had severe contact issues in every league he's been in.

Mez has had great OB skills even when he wasn't hitting in the minors.

Slyder
12-04-2012, 09:04 AM
There's literally no chance the Marlins trade Stanton. Not now, anyways. I read a report somewhere that said Selig probably wouldn't even allow it if they tried. You can only alienate your fans so much.

Bud should have punished them BEFORE the last deal. Now he's punishing Stanton by making him play on a glorified AAA team. If that's true.

Vottomatic
12-04-2012, 12:13 PM
There is nothing in their minor league performances which suggest that they are alike in anyway.


Subbs as always had severe contact issues in every league he's been in.

Mez has had great OB skills even when he wasn't hitting in the minors.

Mez had one good year in the minors.

Brutus
12-04-2012, 12:24 PM
Hence the "Chapman is more valuable than Miller"......

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

I know that, but I was simply pointing out that the difference in value was a lot different than the minimal edge Stanton had over Cabrera in value.

hebroncougar
12-04-2012, 01:39 PM
I know that, but I was simply pointing out that the difference in value was a lot different than the minimal edge Stanton had over Cabrera in value.

:thumbup:

REDREAD
12-05-2012, 01:05 PM
3. I'm the one constantly throwing out Stanton's name and even starting threads about acquiring him. But I tend to agree with Brutus that while he is really good, young, and under control for awhile........he isn't great yet. If the Reds offered Bailey, Corcino or Cingrani, Stephenson, and Mez, and even threw in Stubbs.

I'm guessing the Marlins would only want prospects or major leaguers making the minimum.. I just doubt they have any interest whatsoever in Bailey or Stubbs .. The Marlins would have to flip them for more prospects. That's what the Marlins did with Escobar. Got him from Toronto, and then flipped him for a prospect.

I even think Chapman's salary would be a sticking point.

They'd be interested in Mez, Hamilton and the Reds' minor league pitching prospects is my guess.

Vottomatic
12-30-2012, 12:30 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/marlins-will-listen-on-giancarlo-stanton.html

Here we go again with this rumor back out there.

I'm sure they'd want Hamilton and others.

I honestly think Walt and Bob are looking at Billy as an attendance-boosting novelty with his speed and stolen bases. No way in h-e-double hockeysticks do I think if the Marlins would take a reasonable deal that included Billy, that they would do it. I think they are that in love with Hamilton.

Plus, they're already locked in to pay Ludwick.

Scrap Irony
12-30-2012, 12:43 PM
I'd offer Hamilton and Chapman, move Bruce to CF full-time (assuming he can handle it defensively), and roll with that.

JaxRed
12-30-2012, 12:46 PM
I don't think they would hesitate for a second to trade Hamilton for Stanton. I'd trade Hamilton, Stephenson and Cingrani right now. (Our #1, #2, and #3)

He's that good. And I am not one to trade prospects.

reds1869
12-30-2012, 12:46 PM
I honestly think Walt and Bob are looking at Billy as an attendance-boosting novelty with his speed and stolen bases.

I think they also realize someone who can knock the ball over the fence 40 times a year would do plenty to boost attendance, though.

Vottomatic
12-30-2012, 01:08 PM
I think they also realize someone who can knock the ball over the fence 40 times a year would do plenty to boost attendance, though.

That's how I feel.

I'd honestly be torn though. Because one of my gripes is how the Reds always seem to depend on the long ball and don't know how to play small ball, get on base, and make things happen, when they need to.

If Hamilton is the real deal, I really hate to lose him.

I'm mixed on this one.

mth123
12-30-2012, 01:38 PM
If Stanton goes, its likely to Texas IMO. Leonys Martin, Martin Perez, Mike Olt and Tanner Scheppers for Mike Stanton and Ricky Nolasco. That would be a win-win for both teams IMO.

If I was the Marlins I wouldn't deal him for Hamilton, Stephenson and Cingrani.

Scrap Irony
12-30-2012, 01:49 PM
Stanton was at a 156 wRC+ last season and projects to do just about the same this season. That would rank in the top ten in the major leagues if he has enough ABs. That's Joey Votto territory and enough reason to back the prospect truck up in order to get him.

A Hamilton/ Chapman deal would weaken the pitching staff, but the combination of the two might be enough to convince the Marlins to make the deal, as both look to be top-notch gate attractions.

Imagine, please:
Choo LF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Stanton RF
Bruce CF
Frazier 3B
Cozart SS
Hanigan/ Mesoraco C

Add in Ludwick as the fourth OF/ 1B back-up/ PH/ DH. (In this scenario, he'd play against pretty much all LH in Bruce's spot or Votto's and give Stanton a blow for ten games, Choo for ten, DH for all AL teams-- he'd likely get around 110 games, 400+ ABs.)

That's not just a top of the league batting order, but one of the best of the decade. It would give the Reds four guys inside the top 30 in wRC+ from last season. (That'd be one more than the Angels-- and with less holes.)

marcshoe
12-30-2012, 02:03 PM
Hamilton will be fun to watch, but unless he turns into Ricky Henderson, this shouldn't even be a question. Giancarlo Stanton is worth a boxfull of Billy Hamilton's. Yeah, I'd give Hamilton and Aroldis or Hamilton and Stephenson, as loathe as I am to deal either pitcher. There are a handful of special players out there, and they rarely become available at a young age. When they do, you go all in.

RedsManRick
12-30-2012, 02:22 PM
As silly as it sounds, I think the signing of Ludwick puts a damper on this speculation. I simply don't see Walt signing him to a two year, $15MM deal and then sending him to the bench. I also don't see him moving Hamilton now that Stubbs is gone.

hebroncougar
12-30-2012, 02:51 PM
As silly as it sounds, I think the signing of Ludwick puts a damper on this speculation. I simply don't see Walt signing him to a two year, $15MM deal and then sending him to the bench. I also don't see him moving Hamilton now that Stubbs is gone.

Did Ludwick get a no trade clause? I'd imagine with that contract, he could be traded rather easily after seeing what guys like Gomes and Ross received. I'd absolutely back the truck up for Stanton, Chapman, Hamilton, whatever it took.

Kc61
12-30-2012, 02:52 PM
I think Walt would trade Billy H for Stanton. He wouldn't trade Billy easily, but he'd trade him for Stanton.

But the deal will never happen because the Marlins would want much more.

Walt won't trade Chapman in the deal. He won't trade Latos or Cueto in the deal. He won't trade Bruce or Votto in the deal.

If the Marlins would take Hamilton and Stephenson, or Hamilton and Bailey, I could see a deal. But the Marlins will want more and it won't happen.

mth123
12-30-2012, 03:02 PM
I think Walt would trade Billy H for Stanton. He wouldn't trade Billy easily, but he'd trade him for Stanton.

But the deal will never happen because the Marlins would want much more.

Walt won't trade Chapman in the deal. He won't trade Latos or Cueto in the deal. He won't trade Bruce or Votto in the deal.

If the Marlins would take Hamilton and Stephenson, or Hamilton and Bailey, I could see a deal. But the Marlins will want more and it won't happen.

The Marlins probably won't take back anyone making any money or with less than 5 years control. If the Reds are serious, they'd probably need to offer Hamilton, Frazier, Stephenson and one of Corcino or Cingrani. The Marlins might insist on both with the Reds taking Ricky Nolasco back.

marcshoe
12-30-2012, 03:07 PM
I'd do that deal.

Kc61
12-30-2012, 03:14 PM
The Marlins probably won't take back anyone making any money or with less than 5 years control. If the Reds are serious, they'd probably need to offer Hamilton, Frazier, Stephenson and one of Corcino or Cingrani. The Marlins might insist on both with the Reds taking Ricky Nolasco back.


I'd do that deal.

So would I. But if the Marlins want prospects, there are probably other organizations with more to offer. Other than Hamilton, I don't see the Reds' prospects being among the top guys.

mth123
12-30-2012, 03:57 PM
I'd do that deal.

Talentwise, I probably would too, but now there are 4 OF and no one to play 3B. This team has a chance to win and even getting stanton, screwing it up by creating holes doesn't make sense.

Making that deal would be like the dog holding the bone that sees his reflection in the water and drops the bone to grab the one he sees. It might be tempting to grab for the talent, but it would make them a lesser team.

_Sir_Charles_
12-30-2012, 04:27 PM
As silly as it sounds, I think the signing of Ludwick puts a damper on this speculation. I simply don't see Walt signing him to a two year, $15MM deal and then sending him to the bench. I also don't see him moving Hamilton now that Stubbs is gone.

I agree. I'd be all for going after him...but I don't see Walt even looking into it.

Kc61
12-30-2012, 04:28 PM
Talentwise, I probably would too, but now there are 4 OF and no one to play 3B. This team has a chance to win and even getting stanton, screwing it up by creating holes doesn't make sense.

Making that deal would be like the dog holding the bone that sees his reflection in the water and drops the bone to grab the one he sees. It might be tempting to grab for the talent, but it would make them a lesser team.

Hannahan could play third against righties. Very able fielder, better defensively than Frazier, and could do ok offensively as a platoon.

Reds would then have to acquire a platoon third sacker to face lefties. (Do I hear Scott Rolen?) Or somebody else.

They would have Ludwick to trade.

If the Reds could get Stanton, with a little work, they would be a much more potent offense, a much better ballclub IMO.

kaldaniels
12-30-2012, 04:36 PM
Hannahan could play third against righties. Very able fielder, better defensively than Frazier, and could do ok offensively as a platoon.

Reds would then have to acquire a platoon third sacker to face lefties. (Do I hear Scott Rolen?) Or somebody else.

They would have Ludwick to trade.

If the Reds could get Stanton, with a little work, they would be a much more potent offense, a much better ballclub IMO.

Yep. I get not wanting to trade prospects for him. But please don't make the argument that giving up Frazier for Stanton on the 25 man makes the Reds a lesser team.

Vottomatic
12-30-2012, 04:58 PM
I agree. I'd be all for going after him...but I don't see Walt even looking into it.

That's more how I feel. It's like a pipe dream that won't even start because Walt and Bob will stay the course with how things are now. They see Billy Hamilton as the wonder kid, base-stealing leadoff man, and home grown developed talent. They see a multi-year $7M contract to Ludwick to play LF.

I don't see them thinking outside the box and even entertaining this idea.

Heck, I think Chapman/Hamilton might get it done. You might have to add Cingrani or Corcino or Stephenson, but I think that would get it done. The Fish might want an OFer to fill the void of Stanton, possibly Heisey.

If that deal is made, I re-up Choo on a multi-year deal and the team is set for years to come offensively, and the starting rotation is the same as last year's.

mth123
12-30-2012, 07:21 PM
Hannahan could play third against righties. Very able fielder, better defensively than Frazier, and could do ok offensively as a platoon.

Reds would then have to acquire a platoon third sacker to face lefties. (Do I hear Scott Rolen?) Or somebody else.

They would have Ludwick to trade.

If the Reds could get Stanton, with a little work, they would be a much more potent offense, a much better ballclub IMO.

Well, they signed Ludwick as a Free Agent and can't trade him until June (15th I think). Is Stanton enough of an upgrade over one of the three OF to offset the downgrade at 3B? I just don't see it making the Reds that much better. They are already strong in the OF. I'd estimmate a 150 point drop in OPS at 3B from Frazier to a Hannahan/Rolen platoon (.825 vs .675 or so and that assumes Rolen plays and we don't see a Hannahan/Donald platoon which would be even worse). Will Stanton upgrade LF over Ludwick more than that? He could, but it wouldn't be a huge upgrade overall IMO and I wonder if its worth dealing away not only the 3B solution, but next season's CF and the likely replacemet for Arroyo in 2014 as well. I see this deal creating a lot of holes (which includes a probable late inning lefty from this season's team if Cingrani goes). I'm actually not that high on Frazier as a 3B solution, but the Reds really have a hole there without him.

Like you KC, I think other teams have better prospects and the Reds would need to empty the farm and take on some cash to make a deal.

Kc61
12-30-2012, 07:43 PM
Well, they signed Ludwick as a Free Agent and can't trade him until June (15th I think). Is Stanton enough of an upgrade over one of the three OF to offset the downgrade at 3B? I just don't see it making the Reds that much better. They are already strong in the OF. I'd estimmate a 150 point drop in OPS at 3B from Frazier to a Hannahan/Rolen platoon (.825 vs .675 or so and that assumes Rolen plays and we don't see a Hannahan/Donald platoon which would be even worse). Will Stanton upgrade LF over Ludwick more than that? He could, but it wouldn't be a huge upgrade overall IMO and I wonder if its worth dealing away not only the 3B solution, but next season's CF and the likely replacemet for Arroyo in 2014 as well. I see this deal creating a lot of holes (which includes a probable late inning lefty from this season's team if Cingrani goes). I'm actually not that high on Frazier as a 3B solution, but the Reds really have a hole there without him.

Like you KC, I think other teams have better prospects and the Reds would need to empty the farm and take on some cash to make a deal.

I don't see as much downside as you do. And even if there is a downside, I would never pass up the opportunity to get a young star like Stanton for a reasonable package of prospects.

But it's all just hypothetical and there's not one indication the Reds are interested so, you know, whatever.

AtomicDumpling
12-30-2012, 09:29 PM
I seriously doubt the Reds have any chance of snagging Giancarlo Stanton, but if there is a possibility no matter how remote, then the Reds should go for it. Players like Stanton don't come around often. The guy had an OPS+ of 158 at the age of 22. He is a sure-fire superstar player. He is under team control for a long time. He would be an absolute dream acquisition for the Reds. If you have to empty the farm system to get him it would be totally worth it.

Superdude
12-30-2012, 09:35 PM
Like you KC, I think other teams have better prospects and the Reds would need to empty the farm and take on some cash to make a deal.

I'd say between Hamilton, Stephenson, Chapman, etc., we could get a deal done. The problem isn't talent, it's the fact that Stanton almost undoubtedly means more to someone else than he does to us. Generally not a good idea to get caught up in a bidding war when that's the case, even for a talent like Stanton.

wlf WV
12-30-2012, 10:58 PM
As silly as it sounds, I think the signing of Ludwick puts a damper on this speculation. I simply don't see Walt signing him to a two year, $15MM deal and then sending him to the bench. I also don't see him moving Hamilton now that Stubbs is gone.

I'm also in this camp ,but he does surprise.I don't think I've seen an offer I wouldn't do.

mth123
12-30-2012, 11:55 PM
I'd say between Hamilton, Stephenson, Chapman, etc., we could get a deal done. The problem isn't talent, it's the fact that Stanton almost undoubtedly means more to someone else than he does to us. Generally not a good idea to get caught up in a bidding war when that's the case, even for a talent like Stanton.

I can't see the Marlins having any interest in Chapman. After this season, he becomes arb eligible, the remainder of his deal converts to a signing bonus and he'll be in line for a new deal or a huge arb award. The Marlins are dumping guys like that, not trading for them. It will be Cingrani, Corcino, Hamilton, Stephenson and more, I'd guess Frazier, to get him and the Reds would probably need to take Nolasco and his contract to boot.

The Marlins are going to want at least one young cheap guy who can hit in the middle of the order if they deal Stanton, IMO. That is something the Reds are short on. The closest the Reds have is Frazier I'd guess. Other teams have more to offer along those lines.

Superdude
12-31-2012, 12:09 AM
The Marlins are going to want at least one young cheap guy who can hit in the middle of the order if they deal Stanton, IMO.

I don't think filling the hole left by Stanton is even on their mind given the fact that the team is practically in shambles for the foreseeable future. I would imagine they're looking to disperse Stanton's value into a Latos+ type package that can maybe give them a core to build around at some point.

mth123
12-31-2012, 12:18 AM
Reds fans won't like this, but a team in a much better position to deal for Stanton is St. Louis. Oscar Taveras along with one of Allen Craig or Matt Adams and one of Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez and another prospect (say Tyrell Jenkins) would be a much better package without really making any holes on the current Cards roster.

mth123
12-31-2012, 12:26 AM
I don't think filling the hole left by Stanton is even on their mind given the fact that the team is practically in shambles for the foreseeable future. I would imagine they're looking to disperse Stanton's value into a Latos+ type package that can maybe give them a core to build around at some point.

They need some one who projects as a middle of the order bat for that core to be anything to build around. Maybe Cingrani, Corcino and Stephenson along with Hamilton will give them enough arms to make another deal to get the mid-order bat for that core, but other teams can do it in one deal.

Superdude
12-31-2012, 12:35 AM
They need some one who projects as a middle of the order bat for that core to be anything to build around. Maybe Cingrani, Corcino and Stephenson along wiyh Hamilton will give them enough arms to make another deal to get the mid-order bat for that core, but other teams can do it in one deal.

Maybe true. Either way, there's bound to be plenty of teams scratching and clawing to get him if he's a available. I can't imagine our interest being anything beyond passive curiosity.

REDREAD
12-31-2012, 12:44 AM
That's more how I feel. It's like a pipe dream that won't even start because Walt and Bob will stay the course with how things are now. They see Billy Hamilton as the wonder kid, base-stealing leadoff man, and home grown developed talent. They see a multi-year $7M contract to Ludwick to play LF.

I don't see them thinking outside the box and even entertaining this idea.
.

I'm all for "win now", but I think we're at the point where it just doesn't make sense to sell the farm for Stanton.. Makes Ludwick an expensive bench player, trains the talent pool long term, and as myth said, trading Frasier would be a potential catastrophe.
We've got to figure that the Reds are prety close to the top of their budget now.. in fact, we're probably not going to get an established second LH out of the pen now.. will probably be a reclamation project.

Stanton is awesome, but it doesn't make sense at this point (assuming the Marlins aren't giving him away)

Scrap Irony
12-31-2012, 03:24 AM
Reds fans won't like this, but a team in a much better position to deal for Stanton is St. Louis. Oscar Taveras along with one of Allen Craig or Matt Adams and one of Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez and another prospect (say Tyrell Jenkins) would be a much better package without really making any holes on the current Cards roster.

Interesting.

An Oscar Taveras/ Allen Craig/ Shelby Miller deal is massive. The Marlins would likely insist on Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal as well, while shuffling off Ricky Nolasco. (At least I would, were I the GM.)

That'd give the Marlins a semblance of a lineup to look forward to in a couple of years while also keeping seats warm on the big league team.

A Marisnick/ Taveras/ Yelich OF could be a joy to watch in two or three years. Fast, three CF defensively with power and serious tools. (And, if you're not a believer in Marisnick, there are a bunch of others in that system; they have a ton of interesting OFers and LHP.) Add Craig as a 1B slugger and Dietrich as a Dan Uggla clone at 2B, and I could see Miami making a run in a couple of years with a lineup of:
Marisinick CF
Yelich RF
Taveras LF
Craig 1B
Dietrich 2B
Brantly C
Hechaverria SS

A possible rotation of Jacob Turner, Miller, Martinez, Jose Fernandez, and Eovaldi or Nicolino sure could be tough. Add in a slew of high upside prospects and Rosenthal as the back end of the bullpen, and you've got enough for a team to consider moving a talent like Stanton.

Meanwhile, St. Louis would run the following lineup out there:
Furcal SS
Beltran CF
Holliday LF
Stanton RF
Molina C
Carpenter 1B
Freese 3B
Descalo 2B

Studly, that. Better than the proposed Cincinnati lineup, IMO.

And their rotation would likely be:
Wainwright
Carpenter
Lynn
Nolasco
Garcia

With Jake Westbrook in tow as erstwhile sixth starter (and Joe Kelly behind him), you've got some serious arms there as well.

The pen is still a work in progress, but, yeah, that deal makes a lot of sense for both teams.

Nice job, mth.

Vottomatic
12-31-2012, 06:20 AM
I'm all for "win now", but I think we're at the point where it just doesn't make sense to sell the farm for Stanton.. Makes Ludwick an expensive bench player, trains the talent pool long term, and as myth said, trading Frasier would be a potential catastrophe.
We've got to figure that the Reds are prety close to the top of their budget now.. in fact, we're probably not going to get an established second LH out of the pen now.. will probably be a reclamation project.

Stanton is awesome, but it doesn't make sense at this point (assuming the Marlins aren't giving him away)

I agree the idea of acquiring Stanton is highly unlikely and runs the potential of destroying the Reds farm system.

But then again, nobody knows what it would take. Chapman, Hamilton, Stephenson for Stanton? I'd do that in a heartbeat. Most other proposals, I'd pass, and stay the course.

traderumor
12-31-2012, 07:06 AM
I seriously doubt that the Reds are having one serious conversation on Stanton. They have a team that projects as a 95+ win team in the house now. It would be like blowing up their yacht, which they have invested millions in to get it where it is, because it only had a HD flat screen TV, then paying $50M for a new yacht because it had a 3D flat screen TV.

I understand why any fan would want Stanton on their team. It just is so unrealistic that even trying to put names to a deal seems like so much silliness.

Vottomatic
12-31-2012, 08:27 AM
Joey Votto would be the happiest guy on the team.

RedsManRick
12-31-2012, 09:09 AM
Interesting.

An Oscar Taveras/ Allen Craig/ Shelby Miller deal is massive. The Marlins would likely insist on Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal as well, while shuffling off Ricky Nolasco. (At least I would, were I the GM.)


Call me crazy, but I'd rather have Taveras, Craig, Miller and I'm not particularly torn about it.

mth123
12-31-2012, 09:20 AM
Interesting.

An Oscar Taveras/ Allen Craig/ Shelby Miller deal is massive. The Marlins would likely insist on Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal as well, while shuffling off Ricky Nolasco. (At least I would, were I the GM.)

That'd give the Marlins a semblance of a lineup to look forward to in a couple of years while also keeping seats warm on the big league team.

A Marisnick/ Taveras/ Yelich OF could be a joy to watch in two or three years. Fast, three CF defensively with power and serious tools. (And, if you're not a believer in Marisnick, there are a bunch of others in that system; they have a ton of interesting OFers and LHP.) Add Craig as a 1B slugger and Dietrich as a Dan Uggla clone at 2B, and I could see Miami making a run in a couple of years with a lineup of:
Marisinick CF
Yelich RF
Taveras LF
Craig 1B
Dietrich 2B
Brantly C
Hechaverria SS

A possible rotation of Jacob Turner, Miller, Martinez, Jose Fernandez, and Eovaldi or Nicolino sure could be tough. Add in a slew of high upside prospects and Rosenthal as the back end of the bullpen, and you've got enough for a team to consider moving a talent like Stanton.

Meanwhile, St. Louis would run the following lineup out there:
Furcal SS
Beltran CF
Holliday LF
Stanton RF
Molina C
Carpenter 1B
Freese 3B
Descalo 2B

Studly, that. Better than the proposed Cincinnati lineup, IMO.

And their rotation would likely be:
Wainwright
Carpenter
Lynn
Nolasco
Garcia

With Jake Westbrook in tow as erstwhile sixth starter (and Joe Kelly behind him), you've got some serious arms there as well.

The pen is still a work in progress, but, yeah, that deal makes a lot of sense for both teams.

Nice job, mth.

They could also give Holliday a 1B glove and stick Jay out in the OF or use Matt Adams at 1B. The Cards are loaded with soiid depth and will be a force soon with or without Stanton IMO. The Reds have an opportunity this year while the Cards sort through those arms and Garcia and Carpenter look iffy, which is why I'm against creating holes. Next year, its going to be a dogfight and dealing for Stanton would likely make 2014 holes in Cincy in CF and in the Rotation with no backfills for Choo and Arroyo.

Funny, the only teams that can really afford to deal for Stanton are the ones that don't really have to have him. I'd say Texas and St. Louis are the two best matches.

traderumor
12-31-2012, 09:22 AM
They could also give Holliday a 1B glove and stick Jay out in the OF or use Matt Adams at 1B. The Cards are loaded with soiid depth and will be a force soon with or without Stanton IMO. The Reds have an opportunity this year while the Cards sort through those arms and Garcia and Carpenter look iffy, which is why I'm against creating holes. Next year, its going to be a dogfight and dealing for Stanton would likely make 2014 holes in Cincy in CF and in the Rotation with no backfills for Choo and Arroyo.

Funny, the only teams that can really afford to deal for Stanton are the ones that don't really have to have him. I'd say Texas and St. Louis are the two best matches.Stanton will be a Marlin on Opening Day.

mth123
12-31-2012, 09:32 AM
Stanton will be a Marlin on Opening Day.

Very Possible. They aren't shopping him, but would move him if offered a package that reboots the organization. I don't think the Reds have such a package to give.

traderumor
12-31-2012, 10:54 AM
Very Possible. They aren't shopping him, but would move him if offered a package that reboots the organization. I don't think the Reds have such a package to give.I would guess if they are as bad as the Astros of a year ago, he might go somewhere in July. It is going to be difficult for them to get value for him. While it stinks for him, they would be smart to keep him, pay him, and build around him. But they haven't been doing smart things lately, so anything is possible. I just don't see the Reds even kicking the tires, unless they get wind that they are looking for less than expected.

PuffyPig
12-31-2012, 12:11 PM
Interesting.

An Oscar Taveras/ Allen Craig/ Shelby Miller deal is massive. The Marlins would likely insist on Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal as well, while shuffling off Ricky Nolasco. (At least I would, were I the GM.)

That'd give the Marlins a semblance of a lineup to look forward to in a couple of years while also keeping seats warm on the big league team.

A Marisnick/ Taveras/ Yelich OF could be a joy to watch in two or three years. Fast, three CF defensively with power and serious tools. (And, if you're not a believer in Marisnick, there are a bunch of others in that system; they have a ton of interesting OFers and LHP.) Add Craig as a 1B slugger and Dietrich as a Dan Uggla clone at 2B, and I could see Miami making a run in a couple of years with a lineup of:
Marisinick CF
Yelich RF
Taveras LF
Craig 1B
Dietrich 2B
Brantly C
Hechaverria SS

A possible rotation of Jacob Turner, Miller, Martinez, Jose Fernandez, and Eovaldi or Nicolino sure could be tough. Add in a slew of high upside prospects and Rosenthal as the back end of the bullpen, and you've got enough for a team to consider moving a talent like Stanton.

Meanwhile, St. Louis would run the following lineup out there:
Furcal SS
Beltran CF
Holliday LF
Stanton RF
Molina C
Carpenter 1B
Freese 3B
Descalo 2B

Studly, that. Better than the proposed Cincinnati lineup, IMO.

And their rotation would likely be:
Wainwright
Carpenter
Lynn
Nolasco
Garcia

With Jake Westbrook in tow as erstwhile sixth starter (and Joe Kelly behind him), you've got some serious arms there as well.

The pen is still a work in progress, but, yeah, that deal makes a lot of sense for both teams.

Nice job, mth.

Beltran won't be playing CF on any kind of regular or even semi-regular basis. Even when Jay was injured last year, guys like Robinson were playing there.

Zero chance the Cards trade for Stanton. They simply don't need him enough to give up the best package the Marlins could get.

Same could be said for the Reds.

lollipopcurve
12-31-2012, 12:57 PM
If you're not a big believer in Chapman (or Cozart), consider:

Chapman > Marlins
Stanton > Rangers
Profar > Reds

Might need to have some players on the periphery, but that's the meat.

Brutus
12-31-2012, 01:03 PM
I seriously doubt that the Reds are having one serious conversation on Stanton. They have a team that projects as a 95+ win team in the house now. It would be like blowing up their yacht, which they have invested millions in to get it where it is, because it only had a HD flat screen TV, then paying $50M for a new yacht because it had a 3D flat screen TV.

I understand why any fan would want Stanton on their team. It just is so unrealistic that even trying to put names to a deal seems like so much silliness.

I don't think the Marlins are even having conversations on Stanton. They've no incentive to trade him at all. He's young and cheap and the one guy they can keep that will still keep some semblance of a crowd coming to home games.

I agree with your earlier sentiment completely... He'll be in their lineup on Opening Day.

REDREAD
12-31-2012, 01:04 PM
I agree the idea of acquiring Stanton is highly unlikely and runs the potential of destroying the Reds farm system.

But then again, nobody knows what it would take. Chapman, Hamilton, Stephenson for Stanton? I'd do that in a heartbeat. Most other proposals, I'd pass, and stay the course.


Sure, that sounds great from the Reds POV, but I doubt Miami wants Chapman. He's too expensive for them.

I can't see how a trade could work without giving up at least one of Frasier/Cozart/Mez in addition to Hamilton and pitching prospects.
It might still be a net gain in talent for the Reds, but creates some holes as well, and the Reds have no money left to backfill.. Then there's the sticker shock when Stanton hits arbitration.

_Sir_Charles_
12-31-2012, 02:44 PM
I don't think the Marlins are even having conversations on Stanton. They've no incentive to trade him at all. He's young and cheap and the one guy they can keep that will still keep some semblance of a crowd coming to home games.

I agree with your earlier sentiment completely... He'll be in their lineup on Opening Day.

Not to mention that this whole debate started because of a rumor started by LEATHERPANTS. :laugh:

Vottomatic
12-31-2012, 03:24 PM
Sure, that sounds great from the Reds POV, but I doubt Miami wants Chapman. He's too expensive for them.

I can't see how a trade could work without giving up at least one of Frasier/Cozart/Mez in addition to Hamilton and pitching prospects.
It might still be a net gain in talent for the Reds, but creates some holes as well, and the Reds have no money left to backfill.. Then there's the sticker shock when Stanton hits arbitration.

Miami has alot of Cuban fans. The Cuban Missile might draw fans. Hehehe. :D

So you say 1 of Frazier/Cozart/or Mez + Hamilton + Cingrani or Corcino or Stephenson + Chapman?

Hamilton, Chapman, Mez, Corcino for Stanton. I think the Fish would be stupid to pass on that. In fact, I think it's an overpay. And I don't know why you think Chapman is that expensive. He's pretty cheap for what he delivers. And he should be an attendance booster.

REDREAD
12-31-2012, 03:33 PM
Miami has alot of Cuban fans. The Cuban Missile might draw fans. Hehehe. :D

So you say 1 of Frazier/Cozart/or Mez + Hamilton + Cingrani or Corcino or Stephenson + Chapman?

Hamilton, Chapman, Mez, Corcino for Stanton. I think the Fish would be stupid to pass on that. In fact, I think it's an overpay. And I don't know why you think Chapman is that expensive. He's pretty cheap for what he delivers. And he should be an attendance booster.

Well, I think Miami is going to go into Carl Lindner 2003 mode now.. They got their new ballpark, time to cut the salaries to the bone. I doubt they are that worried about attendence. That's the downside to revenue sharing and the huge TV contract. It's very profitable to sandbag payroll and have minimal attendence..

mth123
12-31-2012, 03:33 PM
Chapman is still owed $9.75 Million in deferred signing bonus through 2020, has a $2 Million Salary for 2013 and his 2014 salary of $3 Million will convert to a bonus as soon as he's arb eligible after the 2013 season. He'll probably be due around $8 Million or so in arb award for 2014 with two more years at an even higher salary after that and before he's eligible for free agency. Unless the Reds are paying a bunch of that, the Marlins won't want to have anything to do with him IMO and if the Reds do pay a lot of that, I doubt there will be money to afford Stanton when he becomes arb eligible in 2014.

IMO, a deal involving Chapman make absolutely no sense.

lollipopcurve
12-31-2012, 04:53 PM
Unless the Reds are paying a bunch of that, the Marlins won't want to have anything to do with him IMO

Marlins are not necessarily strip mining here. They have offloaded big contracts and can now take on salary. My guess is that Selig has pretty much told Lorie to at least make an effort to appear to field a passable squad.

mth123
12-31-2012, 05:04 PM
Marlins are not necessarily strip mining here. They have offloaded big contracts and can now take on salary. My guess is that Selig has pretty much told Lorie to at least make an effort to appear to field a passable squad.

Again, they get three near ready building blocks and a 4th lower level guy with a big potential, that isn't strip mining, that's rebuilding the team. If they don't get that, they keep Stanton. Chapman is too expensive too soon and doesn't have enough years of control left. They'd rather have package of multiple answers as opposed to one guy IMO.

BTW, I don't think the Marlins are Houston bad. I think they'll have a better record than the Pirates, Cubs and Mets.

lollipopcurve
12-31-2012, 07:40 PM
Again, they get three near ready building blocks and a 4th lower level guy with a big potential, that isn't strip mining, that's rebuilding the team. If they don't get that, they keep Stanton. Chapman is too expensive too soon and doesn't have enough years of control left. They'd rather have package of multiple answers as opposed to one guy IMO.

I happen to agree. But you never know with that franchise. If that owner has decided he wants star-quality Cuban talent...

AtomicDumpling
12-31-2012, 08:18 PM
Let's not make the mistake of assuming the Marlins course of action will be logical...

Vottomatic
12-31-2012, 08:38 PM
They have next to nothing payroll now. How in the world does taking on Chapman's contract hurt them? Makes no sense.

CySeymour
12-31-2012, 09:07 PM
They have next to nothing payroll now. How in the world does taking on Chapman's contract hurt them? Makes no sense.

In reality it probably wouldn't. They just don't want to take on payroll.

Vottomatic
01-01-2013, 08:08 AM
MLBTR is reporting that the Mariners and Phillies have both inquired about Stanton but that neither have what it takes in prospects to get a deal done.

They do say that Stanton most likely won't sign a long term contract and that the Marlins will deal him before arbitration and free agency kick in.

traderumor
01-01-2013, 10:02 AM
Let's not make the mistake of assuming the Marlins course of action will be logical...The pattern in MLB has been that the actual deals take a lot less than is surmised on RZ. I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't how it plays out for the Marlins. However, it is probably still more than the Reds are willing and able to pay.

REDREAD
01-02-2013, 12:05 PM
Marlins are not necessarily strip mining here. They have offloaded big contracts and can now take on salary. My guess is that Selig has pretty much told Lorie to at least make an effort to appear to field a passable squad.

I guess there's been nothing done since Selig took over to convince me that he cares if teams appear competitive or not. He sure didn't seem to care about that when Lindner/Allen were running the team.

There was that recent reform introduced where revenue sharing was tied to the payroll (If you spend too little, you lose revenue sharing). Not sure when that takes effect, but I imagine the Marlins will spend the bare minimum to meet that requirement.

Look at what Loria did to the Expos..

Vottomatic
01-02-2013, 04:02 PM
I'm hearing rumors of a Cards-Marlins deal, Stanton for Shelby Miller straight up.










JUST KIDDING. :D

The point of that little joke is in response to what traderumor just said. I always seem to get mad when Jocketty is pursuing someone in trade, and it seems like the other team wants the world from the Reds. Then a trade goes down with another team for alot less than they wanted from the Reds. It never seems to fail.

We'll probably hear a trade in the next few months where Stanton goes for less than the Reds would have offered. And Redszone will go nuts.

Benihana
01-02-2013, 04:15 PM
My hope is that Stanton does not get traded in the next 7 months. But come next offseason, the Reds could be in a position to do something huge:

Reds could offer 3 of Corcino/Cingrani/Leake/Stephenson/Travieso + Ludwick. Or 2 of those pitchers + Ludwick and any hitting prospect in the organization outside of Billy Hamilton. Either way, Reds would still have their starting 8 set for the next 2-3 years and their starting 5 rotation set for that time frame as well. After 2015, there will be a lot of uncertainty (Phillips, Stanton, + 2 of the SP's contracts coming up) but when is that not true 3 years out?

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF Stanton
RF Bruce
3B Frazier
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Bailey
SP Chapman
SP whoever is left from Leake/Cingrani/Corcino/Stephenson

SU Marshall
CL Broxton

for 2014-2015. Still have some prospects left like the 2012 draftees and one of the above pitchers left.

Reds could be in a position to go back-to-back-to-back. Who cares what happens after 2015 if they can do that? :beerme:

traderumor
01-02-2013, 04:33 PM
I'm hearing rumors of a Cards-Marlins deal, Stanton for Shelby Miller straight up.










JUST KIDDING. :D

The point of that little joke is in response to what traderumor just said. I always seem to get mad when Jocketty is pursuing someone in trade, and it seems like the other team wants the world from the Reds. Then a trade goes down with another team for alot less than they wanted from the Reds. It never seems to fail.

We'll probably hear a trade in the next few months where Stanton goes for less than the Reds would have offered. And Redszone will go nuts.I think RZ proposals are often fair from a talent standpoint, but there are the intangibles going into a deal that create variables we are not privy to. Most of the variable here that we know of is the motivation level of the Marlins to deal Stanton. Right now, that probably makes the top 3 prospects, a starting major leaguer and a bench player/reliever the price. Wait it out 'til the trade deadline, and the price probably goes down as the Marlins are more motivated. Still, even then, it probably only drops down to keeping one of your prospects, which I would imagine will be the going price next offseason as well.