PDA

View Full Version : Is Now The Time To Trade Bailey?



Krusty
12-04-2012, 05:27 PM
Just wondering if the Reds should trade Bailey while his trade value is at its peak value or do you think he will be that ace pitcher the Reds envision?

Vottomatic
12-04-2012, 05:32 PM
Latest rumor has the Reds talking to Bailey and Latos about extensions now. I just read it somewhere, but not sure where with all this info going around.

mattfeet
12-04-2012, 05:33 PM
Latest rumor has the Reds talking to Bailey and Latos about extensions now. I just read it somewhere, but not sure where with all this info going around.

Sheldon and Fay both reported it after talking to Walt. I also posted in the rumors thread.

Benihana
12-04-2012, 05:38 PM
I wonder if they are gauging Bailey's expectations and if they are too high they may move him (a la RA Dickey)?

I don't think I'd trade him unless a marquee name like Justin Upton is coming back. Even then it would be tough.

I'd love to get Latos locked up for the next 4-5 years with a bunch of team options a la Shields or Jimenez.

Scrap Irony
12-04-2012, 05:50 PM
I don't think Bailey is necessarily an ace, but I do think he's a solid #2.

Cincinnati has three starters that are at least that good. If Chapman works out as many expect, four. Add Arroyo as a fifth starter (who's been a MOR guy four of the past five years, production-wise), and you've got a real chance at the best rotation in the National League.

When was the last time that happened?

PuffyPig
12-04-2012, 06:57 PM
I don't think Bailey is necessarily an ace, but I do think he's a solid #2.

Cincinnati has three starters that are at least that good. If Chapman works out as many expect, four. Add Arroyo as a fifth starter (who's been a MOR guy four of the past five years, production-wise), and you've got a real chance at the best rotation in the National League.

When was the last time that happened?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that last year was the last time some team had the best rotation in ther National League......

MikeS21
12-04-2012, 07:00 PM
I don't think Bailey is necessarily an ace, but I do think he's a solid #2.

Cincinnati has three starters that are at least that good. If Chapman works out as many expect, four. Add Arroyo as a fifth starter (who's been a MOR guy four of the past five years, production-wise), and you've got a real chance at the best rotation in the National League.

When was the last time that happened?
I agree. Homer doesn't need to be an ace. He needs to be a solid #2 or #3.

The thing is, Homer was rushed too soon to the big leagues and finally, after years of patience, we are seeing him mature. He is right now entering his prime. Why not enjoy a 1-2-3 punch of Cueto, Latos, and Bailey, with Chapman and Arroyo as your #4-#5 guys?

redsmetz
12-04-2012, 07:19 PM
I don't think Bailey is necessarily an ace, but I do think he's a solid #2.

Cincinnati has three starters that are at least that good. If Chapman works out as many expect, four. Add Arroyo as a fifth starter (who's been a MOR guy four of the past five years, production-wise), and you've got a real chance at the best rotation in the National League.

When was the last time that happened?

Prior to this group of pitchers, I would guess it may have been the 1939-1940 staff.

HokieRed
12-04-2012, 07:21 PM
Trading Bailey is, IMHO, the surest way to lose the division in 2013.

camisadelgolf
12-04-2012, 07:31 PM
If there's anything that can stop a playoff caliber team from reaching the playoffs, it's injuries, particularly to the pitching staff. If you trade Bailey, an injury to the rotation means that you're using LeCure, Redmond, Villarreal, et al for an extended period of time--and that's taking for granted that Chapman will be an effective starter.

RedsBaron
12-04-2012, 08:18 PM
Just wondering if the Reds should trade Bailey while his trade value is at its peak value or do you think he will be that ace pitcher the Reds envision?

No (short answer)

(Longer answer): No one is untouchable. If the Reds had Mickey Mantle in his prime I wouldn't be looking to trade him but if I was offered Willie Mays and Juan Marichal I would make the trade.
I like pitching depth. If someone wants Homer I would want a good return.

SidneySlicker
12-04-2012, 08:44 PM
He's not untouchable, but he'd have to the be the centerpiece in a deal with little else going out from the Reds bringing back an all star caliber player. And while Homer is not a #1 on the Reds I think there are quite a few teams that he could be. I'd like to lock him up for a while, but not sure what kind of years and money he'd be looking for.

Tom Servo
12-04-2012, 09:18 PM
I certainly wouldn't hate it if Walt were able to trade Homer for a starting outfielder and then sign a guy like Shaun Marcum, or even a Carlos Villanueva (as a fifth starter), to a short deal.

But I am generally inclined to keep Homer.

The Voice of IH
12-04-2012, 09:31 PM
It would take a lot for me to trade one of the 'future four' (Chapman, Cueto, Latos, Bailey).

Jocketty said they are looking to lock both Bailey and Latos up here in the near future. I think Bailey is going to be really good next season, and his value will rise after that. So if they can get his name on paper now that would be great.

MrRedLegger
12-04-2012, 10:17 PM
Why not enjoy a 1-2-3 punch of Cueto, Latos, and Bailey, with Chapman and Arroyo as your #4-#5 guys?

Although he's unproven as a starter, hearing "Chapman as a #4" made me :eek: :eek: :eek: at how legendary our rotation could (should) be in 2013.

Vottomatic
12-05-2012, 08:40 AM
No (short answer)

(Longer answer): No one is untouchable. If the Reds had Mickey Mantle in his prime I wouldn't be looking to trade him but if I was offered Willie Mays and Juan Marichal I would make the trade.
I like pitching depth. If someone wants Homer I would want a good return.

Agreed.

I think the Reds are setting themselves up perfectly the more I think about it.

If they sign Ludwick, they have all positions filled.

1B Votto, backup Frazier
2B Phillips
SS Cozart, backup Gregorius
3B Frazier, backup Rolen or utility guy
LF Ludwick, backup Heisey
CF Stubbs, backup Heisey with B Hamilton in the wings
RF Bruce
C Hanigan, backup Mez

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Bailey
SP Arroyo
SP Chapman
SP Leake
Depth - Redmond, Cingrani, Corcino, Villareal, Sharky Rogers

CL Broxton, or possibly Chapman
RP - Marshall, Hoover, Lecure, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Simon?

Talk about continuity with guys in the wings. :thumbup:

The Reds don't really need to do any trades. This put them in position to consider trades without having to do anything. Which basically means they'd have to be overwhelmed to realistically consider a trade. I like being in that position.

dfs
12-05-2012, 09:18 AM
If the Reds had Mickey Mantle in his prime I wouldn't be looking to trade him but if I was offered Willie Mays and Juan Marichal I would make the trade.
I like pitching depth. If someone wants Homer I would want a good return.

See the Matt Latos trade. Both teams "won" the trade.

cumberlandreds
12-05-2012, 09:27 AM
I don't why you would want to trade Bailey when it finally looks like he has turned the corner and will be a really good, solid starter. The Reds have the makings of one whale of a good rotation. Latos,Cueto,Bailey,Chapman and for next season Arroyo. With Leake and Cingrani waiting in the wings. Also Stephenson in two to three seasons. Unless you get bowled over by a trade proposal, for someone like Giancarlo Stanton, I wouldn't touch any of those starters. The holes the Reds need filling can be done by signing free agents or trading other parts other than anyone in the rotation.

Chip R
12-05-2012, 09:52 AM
I don't think Bailey is necessarily an ace, but I do think he's a solid #2.

I think he could be a #2 here but I wouldn't count on that as long as Latos and Cueto are healthy. I do think he would be the de facto #1 on a team like the Rockies.


If there's anything that can stop a playoff caliber team from reaching the playoffs, it's injuries, particularly to the pitching staff. If you trade Bailey, an injury to the rotation means that you're using LeCure, Redmond, Villarreal, et al for an extended period of time--and that's taking for granted that Chapman will be an effective starter.

The Reds were very, very fortunate last year since none of the starters missed time due to injuries. That's not something you can count on for next year or the year after. I'm ambivalent on trading him to COLO for Fowler. I see the need for a true leadoff hitter but I'd hate to give up pitching depth - especially if Homer continues his success from late last year.

Perhaps Homer would like to go someplace where he can be the big kahuna. If he stays here, he's 2 injuries - maybe 3 if Chapman starts - from being the #1 guy here. He's been a constant source of ire from fans here so perhaps he would want to go elsewhere where he can get a fresh start and be the man. Not that he has any say in the matter now but if the Reds are pushing him to sign a long term deal, he may tell his agent to not agree to anything because he wants to test the free agent waters. If he doesn't sign long-term, the Reds might just trade him.

PickOff
12-05-2012, 09:56 AM
He is the best chip to deal to improve the Reds' offense. By moving Bailey you basically have the same rotation as last year except for Chapmen replacing Bailey. That seems likely to be about the same. Factor in Bailey's health issues in the past, if the Reds can get a not over the hill stud outfielder like Upton such a trade could be what puts the Reds over the top. The Reds would still have 3 TOR starters come playoffs without him.

That said, it is great to have the starting pitching depth the Reds enjoy with Bailey in the fold. It would be a risky move. At the end of the day I don't see it happening; there really don't seem to be any strong partners for such a trade.

vaticanplum
12-05-2012, 11:27 AM
The Broxton signing says to me that the Reds don't intend to do that much with their core pitching, both starters and relievers. I expect (hope) that they will move Leake, but I think that will be the only really major move. I would like more depth to shore everything up until we know how durable and effective Chapman is as a starter.

I get this. I'm in the no-one-is-untradeable camp ultimately. The Reds have comparatively few holes to fill, but the ones they do are ones with few candidates who will require a lot to get them. I see their most golden legitimate trading chips right now to be Bailey and Hamilton, and I really doubt they'd deal Hamilton. Bailey is more likely, but I think they'll only do it if they get a real stud to fill center field or perhaps shortstop. Honestly, I don't think that will happen. Their pitching is, for once, something they don't have to worry a lot about right now, so for the most part I think they are tending toward leaving it alone (and thus possibly not filling those few holes).

bucksfan2
12-05-2012, 11:31 AM
I run the gambit on Bailey. There were times that I was finished with him and times I was enamored with him. Right now I think I would rather trade Cueto than Bailey. He really matured down the stretch last season and was their best pitcher as the season closed. Something clicked for him last year and he really took off.

I would extend both Bailey and Latos now and not think twice about it. Both are protypical power pitchers and have the frames to go along with it. I think that if Chapman gives the Reds anything similar to what Bailey did last year most of us would be thrilled. It was a roller coaster ride with Homer for the first handful of years but now is the time to reap what he has become.