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Vottomatic
12-05-2012, 09:42 PM
As posted on the rumors thread where we're not allowed to discuss. So discuss it here.


Wildman Walker posted this on his facebook:

"i've learned through 2 souces at the baseball winter meetings in nashville, that the reds are on the verge of acquiring centerfielder jacoby ellsbury (a true leadoff hitter)
in exchange for oufielder drew stubbs and minor league pitching prospect
daniel corcino.
stay tuned."

edabbs44
12-05-2012, 09:42 PM
How reputable is this wild man?

Vottomatic
12-05-2012, 09:45 PM
How reputable is this wild man?

I've heard he'll sleep and live at the top of a billboard.

LoganBuck
12-05-2012, 09:47 PM
How reputable is this wild man?

He is plugged into Cincinnati Sports, as he has been a radio personality for ~30 years. Coming from him it could be anywhere from complete lunacy to dead serious.

Vottomatic
12-05-2012, 09:52 PM
How reputable is this wild man?

I think he named one of his kids Pete after Pete Rose. He is a WEBN sports news radio guy, who has been in Cincinnati forever. Huuuuuuge Reds fan who probably has a ton of contacts.

But, even if they are putting something together, it could just as easily fall apart.

I'm more interested in if people like the potential deal or not?

I do. I'd rather trade Corcino than Cingrani. And I'm glad we're not trading any of our major league pitching starters. I think everyone will be happy to see Stubbs gone so Dusty can't misuse him in the lineup.

If he remains healthy, Ellsbury is a huge upgrade, and that's an understatement. Plus, he will be playing for a contract since it's his last year and then he turns a free agent after 2013. A good situation for the Reds to have a guy hungry to impress.

NJReds
12-05-2012, 09:54 PM
Ellsbury would help, but he's had one great year and can't stay healthy. He also makes $8M and is only signed for one year. Not sure about this rumor.

Matt700wlw
12-05-2012, 09:58 PM
Bridge to Hamilton?

Benihana
12-05-2012, 09:58 PM
That would be a great deal for the Reds. Let's hope there's truth.

Joseph
12-05-2012, 09:59 PM
I'd do it, however I don't know that I trust the Wildman.

kaldaniels
12-05-2012, 09:59 PM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/tv/files/2012/03/Wildman-Walker-WEBN-headshot-042.jpg

mattfeet
12-05-2012, 09:59 PM
Id hate to lose out on Corcino, however. Id LOVE to get Ellsbury, though. Wow.

kaldaniels
12-05-2012, 10:04 PM
Before anyone gets 2 steps ahead of themselves, let it be noted Jacoby is a Boras client.

M2
12-05-2012, 10:04 PM
If he remains healthy, Ellsbury is a huge upgrade, and that's an understatement. Plus, he will be playing for a contract since it's his last year and then he turns a free agent after 2013. A good situation for the Reds to have a guy hungry to impress.

He might not be that huge an upgrade. He can be underwhelming, though still better than Stubbs when he is. I'm with you in liking that Ellsbury will be playing for a big, fat contract. I also like that the rumored deal minimizes the Reds' risk in case Ellsbury doesn't deliver as advertised.

Vottomatic
12-05-2012, 10:05 PM
Bridge to Hamilton?

If we get the 2011 version of Ellsbury, and the rest of the team stays healthy, you can print World Series tickets.

Vottomatic
12-05-2012, 10:07 PM
Before anyone gets 2 steps ahead of themselves, let it be noted Jacoby is a Boras client.

I don't think anyone expects the Reds to try and extend him. As another poster said, I think Matt, he is simply a 1-year bridge to Billy Hamilton, which makes sense.

Giving up Corcino and Stubbs for a 1-year rental that will be in a chase for a new contract, is not a bad thing.

Benihana
12-05-2012, 10:09 PM
I don't think anyone expects the Reds to try and extend him. As another poster said, I think Matt, he is simply a 1-year bridge to Billy Hamilton, which makes sense.

Giving up Corcino and Stubbs for a 1-year rental that will be in a chase for a new contract, is not a bad thing.

Don't forget the draft picks we'd pickup after he turns down the Reds qualifying offer- that alone should be able to replace Corcino.

kaldaniels
12-05-2012, 10:14 PM
Don't forget the draft picks we'd pickup after he turns down the Reds qualifying offer- that alone should be able to replace Corcino.

There's a silver lining. Very true.

osuceltic
12-05-2012, 10:14 PM
I don't think anyone expects the Reds to try and extend him. As another poster said, I think Matt, he is simply a 1-year bridge to Billy Hamilton, which makes sense.

Giving up Corcino and Stubbs for a 1-year rental that will be in a chase for a new contract, is not a bad thing.

I wouldn't just assume that. If it works out, Jocketty has a history of extending these types of guys.

Vottomatic
12-05-2012, 10:17 PM
I wouldn't just assume that. If it works out, Jocketty has a history of extending these types of guys.

It's a win-win in a way. If Ellsbury has a great season in his march for a big contract, and the rest of the Reds players put up similar numbers to 2012 or possibly better, this team will be a favorite. The pitching staff intact and, on paper, and improved offense? Wow.

And if Hamilton gets a full season in triple A, and performs well........you probably see him in September.

Plus we retain Cingrani.

And as Beni pointed out, Walt offers a contract to Ellsbury and Reds get draft picks.

kaldaniels
12-05-2012, 10:19 PM
Twitterers mentioning Tracy Jones has mentioned this as well... Any updates local guys?

LoganBuck
12-05-2012, 10:22 PM
Twitterers mentioning Tracy Jones has mentioned this as well... Any updates local guys?

Jones was saying this during the afternoon show before 3:30. Tracy has a terrible record with trade rumors. Most of the time it is all noise, no substance.

mattfeet
12-05-2012, 10:24 PM
Twitterers mentioning Tracy Jones has mentioned this as well... Any updates local guys?

I've got nothing so far. Scouring the web ATM.

Matt700wlw
12-05-2012, 10:24 PM
Twitterers mentioning Tracy Jones has mentioned this as well... Any updates local guys?

Tracy said he had sources in Nashville telling him that the Reds were going after Ellsbury during his show today. When I heard it, he didn't mention any names as far as trade....he may have later in the show. I don't exactly take what Tracy says too seriously....

Then Wildman posted something similar on facebook....I don't necessarily take what he says too seriously either....

But that's two people, who work for different companies (Wildman is no longer with Clear Channel)....

Maybe there's something to it....I'd say it's worth keeping an eye on.

Superdude
12-05-2012, 10:25 PM
Someone explain Jacoby Ellsbury's career to me. Assuming he's healthy, is he a solid leadoff hitter or Mike Trout? His '11 season seems so out of place.

Bill
12-05-2012, 10:25 PM
Baseball reference has Ellsbury's 6th most similar hitter to be Roberto Kelly. Well there we go.

I certainly like the rumored price more than the Fowler rumored price.

corkedbat
12-05-2012, 10:32 PM
I don't think anyone expects the Reds to try and extend him. As another poster said, I think Matt, he is simply a 1-year bridge to Billy Hamilton, which makes sense.

Giving up Corcino and Stubbs for a 1-year rental that will be in a chase for a new contract, is not a bad thing.

If he he stays healthy and has a year like 2011, tender him a one-year qualifying offer. With Boras, the chances are very slim he would accept and even if he did, his 2011 numbers would be worth another year for around $13M.

M2
12-05-2012, 10:32 PM
Someone explain Jacoby Ellsbury's career to me. Assuming he's healthy, is he a solid leadoff hitter or Mike Trout? His '11 season seems so out of place.

Outside of 2011, when he's healthy Ellsbury is pretty much cut from the same cloth as Angel Pagan.

REDREAD
12-05-2012, 10:47 PM
I think we have to assume Ellsbury is going to test FA. Otherwise, wouldn't the Red Sox extend him? Instead, it appears they quickly signed Victorino and Gomes to fill up their outfield (and if this rumor is correct, Stubbs for CF).

This reeks of a move of a rebuilding team that feels it has no chance to extend the player. Maybe Ellsbury wants out of Boston and would be more willing to extend with the team that traded for him, but it seems to me that it's 95% likely this would be a one year rental.

If Ellsbury passes a physical, etc then I would really like the rumored trade.

Maybe this rumor is plausible.. We heard rumors of Walt going after Ellsbury last summer.

757690
12-05-2012, 10:50 PM
Outside of 2011, when he's healthy Ellsbury is pretty much cut from the same cloth as Angel Pagan.

But 2011 happened, and can't be discounted. Talent and skill wise, that's probably closer to where he is than when he was first coming up.

He's a much better hitter than Pegan. He has a genuine hit tool. Hits for a higher average, and with much more power.

His big issue is health. If healthy, he's an All-Star. But who really knows about that. A good move, but a big risk as well.

IslandRed
12-05-2012, 11:01 PM
It's not the worst trade rumor I've ever heard from the Reds' perspective. It's certainly aiming at the right kind of target -- leadoff-hitting center fielder that won't block Billy Hamilton if BH is ready for 2014. Assuming they believe Ellsbury will have a more career-average year instead of flailing around the .310s again in OBP, he would be a big help. Stubbs is certainly no real loss if Ellsbury is here and Hamilton is on the way. I think I'm okay with parting with Corcino, although I do like the kid.

So it basically comes down to whether the Reds can and will write Ellsbury's paychecks. He's going to arbitration again, right? So we don't know exactly how much he'll cost? If a chip like Corcino is going the other way, I hope that means the Red Sox would be kicking in some money.

Steve4192
12-05-2012, 11:07 PM
But 2011 happened, and can't be discounted. Talent and skill wise, that's probably closer to where he is than when he was first coming up.

I don't know about that.

Sometimes guys just have a fluky once-in-a-lifetime season (also known as pulling a Brady Anderson).

M2
12-05-2012, 11:21 PM
But 2011 happened, and can't be discounted. Talent and skill wise, that's probably closer to where he is than when he was first coming up.

He's a much better hitter than Pegan. He has a genuine hit tool. Hits for a higher average, and with much more power.

The power is all 2011. Ellsbury never hit double digit HRs or more than 30 doubles outside of that season. Pagan's a career .281 hitter. His last four seasons have been .306, .290, .262 and .288 (in pitchers parks). That's a hit tool. Even with Ellsbury's 2011 season, he and Pagan have a dead even career 106 OPS+.

I'd be thrilled if the Reds traded for Ellsbury and something approximating his 2011 self showed up, but it would be foolish to trade for him like that's a sure thing. This guy is as impossible to predict as any player in baseball. He has thrilled and horrified the Sox over the years. It's probably safest to peg him at his averages. So if the Angel Paganish version of Ellsbury doesn't appeal to you, then don't trade for him.

757690
12-05-2012, 11:23 PM
I don't know about that.

Sometimes guys just have a fluky once-in-a-lifetime season (also known as pulling a Brady Anderson).

If you watch him play, his 2011 numbers don't seem all that crazy. Like I said, he possesses a solid hit tool. He can hit for a high average, and that doesn't go away when healthy.

Plus most of those one year guys, like Brady Anderson, had some help, if you know what I mean.

M2
12-05-2012, 11:28 PM
If you watch him play, his 2011 numbers don't seem all that crazy. Like I said, he possesses a solid hit tool. He can hit for a high average, and that doesn't go away when healthy.

Plus most of those one year guys, like Brady Anderson, had some help, if you know what I mean.

I live in Boston. I've watched him play his whole career. The power he showed in 2011 never existed in his game prior to that season and completely disappeared last season. FWIW, there's a fair amount of speculation that Ellsbury's 2011 might have come from a bottle.

RedEye
12-05-2012, 11:31 PM
I live in Boston. I've watched him play his whole career. The power he showed in 2011 never existed in his game prior to that season and completely disappeared last season. FWIW, there's a fair amount of speculation that Ellsbury's 2011 might have come from a bottle.

Like a genie?

757690
12-05-2012, 11:34 PM
I live in Boston. I've watched him play his whole career. The power he showed in 2011 never existed in his game prior to that season and completely disappeared last season. FWIW, there's a fair amount of speculation that Ellsbury's 2011 might have come from a bottle.

Fair enough. I'm not assuming his power will come back to 2011 levels. I just think he knows how to hit, and that will continue if healthy.

I don't live in Boston, but have Bostonites in my family, so I have been forced to watch them since 1998, lol. I feel I know them better than any other team besides the Reds, though not by choice.

757690
12-05-2012, 11:36 PM
Like a genie?

Maybe this is what he means?

http://www.expresschemist.co.uk/pics/products/47911/0/just-for-men-light-medium-b.jpg

M2
12-05-2012, 11:38 PM
Fair enough. I'm not assuming his power will come back to 2011 levels. I just think he knows how to hit, and that will continue if healthy.

No doubt he hits for average, but so does Pagan.

Superdude
12-05-2012, 11:57 PM
Fair enough. I'm not assuming his power will come back to 2011 levels. I just think he knows how to hit, and that will continue if healthy.

Is he healthy though? His numbers last year were pretty terrible and we've seen firsthand with Kearns how much shoulder injuries can screw up a hitter. It may be worth the risk for Corcino, but I have no idea what to honestly expect from Ellsbury.

Johnny Footstool
12-06-2012, 12:11 AM
I live in Boston. I've watched him play his whole career. The power he showed in 2011 never existed in his game prior to that season and completely disappeared last season. FWIW, there's a fair amount of speculation that Ellsbury's 2011 might have come from a bottle.

In this case, "a fair amount" equals "all signs point to yes."

He seems like a better fit for the Blue Jays. Maybe he can team up with Bautista, Encarnacion, and Cabrera to get bulk rate shipping from their supplier.

Spitball
12-06-2012, 12:20 AM
Although I have little confidence in Ben Cherington's ability build a competitive team in Boston, I can't see him trading Ellsbury for anything less than an impact starting pitcher...and they won't get one for an injury prone Boras client who will definitely test the market. They definitely don't want nor need Stubbs.

I predict Ellsbury plays in Boston in 2013...at least until the trade deadline.

757690
12-06-2012, 01:01 AM
No doubt he hits for average, but so does Pagan.

Ellsbury has 20 points on Pegan for BA. Pegan has never hit .300 over a full season. Ellsbury has done it twice.

Bill
12-06-2012, 02:14 AM
I had read that in 2011 he had become a fastball hitter for the first time as an account for the home run totals, but why at that point gain the ability overnight?

Buckeye33
12-06-2012, 02:30 AM
Obviously no one knows if these rumors will come true but I can say I won't be mad if this lineup is put on the field a lot in 2013.

1. Ellsbury
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Ludwick
5. Bruce
6. Frazier
7. Cozart
8. Hanigan/Mez

Steve4192
12-06-2012, 07:34 AM
Plus most of those one year guys, like Brady Anderson, had some help, if you know what I mean.

I was not subtlety implying the same thing about Ellsbury.

jhu1321
12-06-2012, 07:50 AM
Obviously no one knows if these rumors will come true but I can say I won't be mad if this lineup is put on the field a lot in 2013.

1. Ellsbury
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Ludwick
5. Bruce
6. Frazier
7. Cozart
8. Hanigan/Mez

Ding.

LoganBuck
12-06-2012, 09:06 AM
Per wlw news Buster Olney reporting this is real, but Boston wants Bailey or Latos.

No

wolfboy
12-06-2012, 09:08 AM
Per wlw news Buster Olney reporting this is real, but Boston wants Bailey or Latos.

No

:lol: Not so much.

Steve4192
12-06-2012, 09:10 AM
Per wlw news Buster Olney reporting this is real, but Boston wants Bailey or Latos.

No

HELL no.

I wouldn't even give them Leake.

klw
12-06-2012, 09:26 AM
Is this all stemming from that speculative piece of Olney's on possible landing spots for Ellsbury where he guesses the cost and not based on actual rumors? I don't have ESPN Insider so I can't read his speculation part.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8713266/if-jacoby-ellsbury-dealt-boston-teams-fits-mlb


Some small-market teams must desperately cling to their young pitching, which is what the Red Sox are looking for. Some teams, such as the Royals, have other priorities.

But here are some teams that could theoretically be a fit in an Ellsbury deal. (WARNING: SPECULATION AHEAD)

M2
12-06-2012, 09:36 AM
Ellsbury has 20 points on Pegan for BA. Pegan has never hit .300 over a full season. Ellsbury has done it twice.

Ellsbury plays in a BA heaven. Pagan has played in hitter's nightmares (and he hit .306 in 2009). When it comes to hitting for average, they're essentially the same guy.

NJReds
12-06-2012, 09:36 AM
Per wlw news Buster Olney reporting this is real, but Boston wants Bailey or Latos.

No

That's crazy. Ellsbury has a one-year contract, had one great year among some otherwise average seasons and can't stay healthy. He's worth a couple prospects, nothing more.

REDREAD
12-06-2012, 09:39 AM
Per wlw news Buster Olney reporting this is real, but Boston wants Bailey or Latos.

No

Another piece of evidence that Boston is living in another reality :laugh:

M2
12-06-2012, 09:40 AM
Is this all stemming from that speculative piece of Olney's on possible landing spots for Ellsbury where he guesses the cost and not based on actual rumors? I don't have ESPN Insider so I can't read his speculation part.

And in Buster Olney's world the Reds have to pay the Red Sox just to talk to them. I'm actually mildly surprised Olney acknowledged the Reds' existence.

Revering4Blue
12-06-2012, 09:40 AM
Is this all stemming from that speculative piece of Olney's on possible landing spots for Ellsbury where he guesses the cost and not based on actual rumors? I don't have ESPN Insider so I can't read his speculation part.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8713266/if-jacoby-ellsbury-dealt-boston-teams-fits-mlb

The article states that Mike Leake may interest Boston.

Olney lists the best realisitic fits for Ellsbury in this order: 1) Braves--Teheran or Delgado as a centerpiece-- 2)Reds 3)Rangers 4)Phillies 5)Mariners.

The article is very vague, so you didn't miss much.

RedRoser
12-06-2012, 09:50 AM
Per wlw news Buster Olney reporting this is real, but Boston wants Bailey or Latos.

No

If that's the price, don't say No!
Say, HELL NO!!! :D

OldXOhio
12-06-2012, 09:52 AM
The article states that Mike Leake may interest Boston.

Olney lists the best realisitic fits for Ellsbury in this order: 1) Braves--Teheran or Delgado as a centerpiece-- 2)Reds 3)Rangers 4)Phillies 5)Mariners.

The article is very vague, so you didn't miss much.

Lacking anything concrete = vague = Buster Olney

blumj
12-06-2012, 09:54 AM
Another piece of evidence that Boston is living in another reality :laugh:
Well, they are, but we already had plenty of evidence of that. And I almost can't blame them for it since the Punto trade. But I'm also just not convinced they want to trade Ellsbury unless someone does something almost as stupid as that.

MikeS21
12-06-2012, 10:25 AM
Sorry, I'm just not that desperate to replace Drew Stubbs in CF.

Benihana
12-06-2012, 10:30 AM
Bailey or Latos for Ellsbury is laughable.

I'm sure some in Boston would say Corcino for Ellsbury is laughable.

Personally, I wouldn't completely rule out Cingrani or Leake.

Johnny Footstool
12-06-2012, 10:40 AM
The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.

Benihana
12-06-2012, 10:47 AM
The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.

Because most wouldn't trade him for one year of Ellsbury?

757690
12-06-2012, 10:48 AM
Actually, it's the reverse.

Parks with small outfields supress BA, because the outfielders have less ground to cover, making it harder for line drives to fall in. Most of the parks out west are BA hitters dreams, as flares drop into the vast outfield spaces regularly.

The only advantage Pegan has between the parks in which they play is foul territory, but that's a very small advantage.

And Pegan wasn't a regular in 2009. Only 88 games.

mdccclxix
12-06-2012, 10:50 AM
The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.

Hey now

mdccclxix
12-06-2012, 11:05 AM
If Bailey was included, and Stubbs, that would at least be payroll neutral. However, I'd expect some more coming back from Boston because Ellsbury is a large injury risk. I looked at Lars Anderson for LF, Kalish for OF help, both LHB, but have no idea if they're really any good. Bryce Brentz has some contact issues. I don't know, just not seeing it.

wolfboy
12-06-2012, 11:06 AM
The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.

At a minimum, he's a strong trading chip. Do you blow that on a guy with some serious injury questions and only a year left on his contract?

Johnny Footstool
12-06-2012, 11:23 AM
I'm not super keen on Bailey for Ellsbury, based on ages, dollars, etc.

It just seems like a lot of people aren't willing to part with him for anything short of Felix Hernandez or Mike Trout.

REDREAD
12-06-2012, 11:28 AM
Well, they are, but we already had plenty of evidence of that. And I almost can't blame them for it since the Punto trade. But I'm also just not convinced they want to trade Ellsbury unless someone does something almost as stupid as that.

What is the story behind the Punto trade.. do you mean the giant salary dump to LA, or is there more to it than that.

Just seems that they have a bizzare plan.. Sign Gomes for LF. Sign Victorino, then trade one year of Ellsbury for an young near ace pitcher.. Asking for Latos is just plain ludicrous. Now granted, this is just rumors, maybe they didn't really ask for that much.

In the end, Ellsbury (if traded) is going to get less return than Span did. Same with Choo (I know the Indians are holding out for a lot).

M2
12-06-2012, 11:44 AM
Actually, it's the reverse.

Parks with small outfields supress BA, because the outfielders have less ground to cover, making it harder for line drives to fall in. Most of the parks out west are BA hitters dreams, as flares drop into the vast outfield spaces regularly.

The only advantage Pegan has between the parks in which they play is foul territory, but that's a very small advantage.

And Pegan wasn't a regular in 2009. Only 88 games.

Here's the park factors for 2012 - http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/hitsFactor. Fenway ranks second for hits. It is famously great for BA. It turned Pete Runnels into a two-time batting champion. Fenway has been a BA paradise for more than a century. I don't care what your theories are about what maybe makes a good BA park, Fenway is the gold standard.

And AT&T and Citi Field bring up the rear of the pack.

If you put Pagan's numbers through a stats neutralizer (e.g. adjust him as if his career had been played for the 2012 Red Sox) you get a career .298/.351/.448 slash line. Ellsbury is .297/.349/.442. It's the exact same tool set and an almost identical performance. They might as well be the same human.

mdccclxix
12-06-2012, 11:47 AM
I wouldn't go that far, but they could have the same dad.

757690
12-06-2012, 12:06 PM
Here's the park factors for 2012 - http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/hitsFactor. Fenway ranks second for hits. It is famously great for BA. It turned Pete Runnels into a two-time batting champion. Fenway has been a BA paradise for more than a century. I don't care what your theories are about what maybe makes a good BA park, Fenway is the gold standard.

And AT&T and Citi Field bring up the rear of the pack.

If you put Pagan's numbers through a stats neutralizer (e.g. adjust him as if his career had been played for the 2012 Red Sox) you get a career .298/.351/.448 slash line. Ellsbury is .297/.349/.442. It's the exact same tool set and an almost identical performance. They might as well be the same human.

All park factors are for every hitter, so they are rather meaningless when appllied to individual hitters. Every hitter is going to react differently to every park. Sure lots of right handed power hitter get lots of flyballs turned into hits because of the green monster, but a slap hitter like Pegan probably won't.

Sure, a few lefites with great bat control like Runnels or Boggs can master the uniqueness of Femway, but Pegan ain't one of them. A slap hitter like Pegan is going to benefit more from a big ballpark than from a small one like Fenway. I'm pretty sure that if you put Pegan in Fenway, his BA would go down.

blumj
12-06-2012, 12:12 PM
What is the story behind the Punto trade.. do you mean the giant salary dump to LA, or is there more to it than that.

Just seems that they have a bizzare plan.. Sign Gomes for LF. Sign Victorino, then trade one year of Ellsbury for an young near ace pitcher.. Asking for Latos is just plain ludicrous. Now granted, this is just rumors, maybe they didn't really ask for that much.

In the end, Ellsbury (if traded) is going to get less return than Span did. Same with Choo (I know the Indians are holding out for a lot).
Yes, the giant salary dump that gave them all this freedom to overpay Napoli, Victorino, and anyone else who will take a less than 4 year deal. And, their plan does seem bizarre, but I think they want to avoid any more big long term contracts unless it's for the absolute perfect player for them, and I don't see that guy out there right now. And I also believe they don't want to trade prospects or forfeit draft picks, but they can't go into 2013 with a $90M payroll, either. So, they overpay some decent players on shorter deals and see what they can do with that. I also agree with you about Ellsbury's trade value, which is why I don't expect him to be traded.

blumj
12-06-2012, 12:27 PM
I wouldn't go that far, but they could have the same dad.
Ellsbury is more handsome, but they even have the free tacos for the 1st stolen base in the WS thing in common.

edabbs44
12-06-2012, 12:29 PM
Because most wouldn't trade him for one year of Ellsbury?

The same way Cincy acquired one year of Marshall?

LoganBuck
12-06-2012, 12:31 PM
The same way Cincy acquired one year of Marshall?

Scott Boras and any type of quality season for Ellsbury would make it impossible to fit him into the budget on another contract.

M2
12-06-2012, 12:53 PM
All park factors are for every hitter, so they are rather meaningless when appllied to individual hitters. Every hitter is going to react differently to every park. Sure lots of right handed power hitter get lots of flyballs turned into hits because of the green monster, but a slap hitter like Pegan probably won't.

Sure, a few lefites with great bat control like Runnels or Boggs can master the uniqueness of Femway, but Pegan ain't one of them. A slap hitter like Pegan is going to benefit more from a big ballpark than from a small one like Fenway. I'm pretty sure that if you put Pegan in Fenway, his BA would go down.

LH hitters feast on Fenway: David Ortiz, Mike Greenwell, Trot Nixon, Johnny Damon, Scott Cooper (Fenway made his entire career), Fred Lynn, Otis Nixon (switch-hitter, but his numbers as LH hitter during his season in Boston were far better), Troy O'Leary, Billy Goodman, Johnny Pesky, Doc Cramer. There's a century's worth of LH bats - slap hitters, power hitters and everything in between - who have enjoyed the BA benefits of Fenway Park. It's a great hitters park for everyone - no foul territory, big RF, deep to dead center, and you can bang hits off the wall no matter which side you hit from.

And Pagan is no more of a slap hitter than Ellsbury is. They have an identical career OPS+ of 106. Neither takes a lot of walks (Pagan has a career 7.4% BB rate, Ellsbury is a 6.7%). Pagan even has a slightly higher career XBH% - 8.3% compared to 7.9%.

I was actually being kind to Ellsbury when I said that outside of 2011 he's Angel Pagan. The truth is, if you wiped out Ellsbury's 2011 season, Pagan's got a clear advantage. Pagan doesn't have a lot of power, but he's been more consistent with it.

Clearly you have mentally sorted these two in different boxes. You shouldn't have. Both are BA-driven players with nearly identical career percentages (at least when you adjust park-adjust them). Baseball-Reference even lists Pagan as the second-most comparable player to Ellsbury.

edabbs44
12-06-2012, 12:59 PM
Scott Boras and any type of quality season for Ellsbury would make it impossible to fit him into the budget on another contract.

The Reds have extended a lot of guys the past few years who many thought would have no shot of sticking around. If WJ acquires him for value, he must have a feeling on extending him.

REDREAD
12-06-2012, 01:12 PM
The Reds have extended a lot of guys the past few years who many thought would have no shot of sticking around. If WJ acquires him for value, he must have a feeling on extending him.

I agree with you in general, but with Billy H on the horizon, I see Ellsbury probably as a one year rental.
I think if Ellsbury was signable on reasonable terms, the Red Sox would've already extended him (the way they are throwing money around).
But maybe the reasons for Boston not extending him are not obvious, that's a possiblity.

I got to think Ellsbury at bare minimum is going to want a deal like Pagan and Victorino got.. That's a bit rich for my blood when our best prospect plays CF.

757690
12-06-2012, 01:19 PM
LH hitters feast on Fenway: David Ortiz, Mike Greenwell, Trot Nixon, Johnny Damon, Scott Cooper (Fenway made his entire career), Fred Lynn, Otis Nixon (switch-hitter, but his numbers as LH hitter during his season in Boston were far better), Troy O'Leary, Billy Goodman, Johnny Pesky, Doc Cramer. There's a century's worth of LH bats - slap hitters, power hitters and everything in between - who have enjoyed the BA benefits of Fenway Park. It's a great hitters park for everyone - no foul territory, big RF, deep to dead center, and you can bang hits off the wall no matter which side you hit from.

And Pagan is no more of a slap hitter than Ellsbury is. They have an identical career OPS+ of 106. Neither takes a lot of walks (Pagan has a career 7.4% BB rate, Ellsbury is a 6.7%). Pagan even has a slightly higher career XBH% - 8.3% compared to 7.9%.

I was actually being kind to Ellsbury when I said that outside of 2011 he's Angel Pagan. The truth is, if you wiped out Ellsbury's 2011 season, Pagan's got a clear advantage. Pagan doesn't have a lot of power, but he's been more consistent with it.

Clearly you have mentally sorted these two in different boxes. You shouldn't have. Both are BA-driven players with nearly identical career percentages (at least when you adjust park-adjust them). Baseball-Reference even lists Pagan as the second-most comparable player to Ellsbury.

I have seperated the two, for good reason.

There is no way Angel Pegan could ever, in his wildest dreams, even taking every PED available, have a year like Ellsbury's 2011.

Career stats over just a few years can be very misleading. Unless you discount Ellsbury's 2011 due to PED's, you have to account for it. Outside of PED users, it's very rare for a player to raise his game as Ellsbury did, and not stay near that level when healthy.

If healthy, I see Ellsbury having a .295/.350/.450 year and Pegan having a .275/330/410 line. For me the big risk with Ellsbury is health. But if healthy, he's a significantly better player than Pegan.

M2
12-06-2012, 01:52 PM
There is no way Angel Pegan could ever, in his wildest dreams, even taking every PED available, have a year like Ellsbury's 2011.

I agree. That's why I said "Outside of 2011 ..." The question was what kind of player is Jacoby Ellsbury. The answer is that most of the time he's a player like Angel Pagan.


Career stats over just a few years can be very misleading. Unless you discount Ellsbury's 2011 due to PED's, you have to account for it. Outside of PED users, it's very rare for a player to raise his game as Ellsbury did, and not stay near that level when healthy.

One-year flukes are more misleading that career slash lines. Actually, one-year flukes tend to be the thing that make career totals misleading.

And have you seen Brandon Phillips hit anything close to 30 HR since 2007? Joe Mauer hasn't been able to recapture his 2009 power. Jimmy Rollins hasn't been back in in 2007 MVP form since 2007. It's actually pretty common for a player to have a season that came out of the blue like Ellsbury did in 2011 and never get back there again. Chase Headley might have just done it in 2012.


If healthy, I see Ellsbury having a .295/.350/.450 year and Pegan having a .275/330/410 line. For me the big risk with Ellsbury is health. But if healthy, he's a significantly better player than Pegan.

And if Ellsbury is putting up those numbers in Boston and Pagan is putting up those numbers in San Francisco it will effectively mean they had similar seasons. All you're really doing there is assuming one guy plays in a hitters park and one guy plays in a pitchers park.

Superdude
12-06-2012, 01:56 PM
I have seperated the two, for good reason.

There is no way Angel Pegan could ever, in his wildest dreams, even taking every PED available, have a year like Ellsbury's 2011.

Career stats over just a few years can be very misleading. Unless you discount Ellsbury's 2011 due to PED's, you have to account for it. Outside of PED users, it's very rare for a player to raise his game as Ellsbury did, and not stay near that level when healthy.

If healthy, I see Ellsbury having a .295/.350/.450 year and Pegan having a .275/330/410 line. For me the big risk with Ellsbury is health. But if healthy, he's a significantly better player than Pegan.

Yea that comp doesn't work for me either. Regardless of career averages, Ellsbury clearly has talent Pagan couldn't even begin to dream of. I don't think Jocketty even looks at this trade unless he believes a healthy Ellsbury is going to produce well beyond Angel Pagan.

M2
12-06-2012, 02:27 PM
Yea that comp doesn't work for me either. Regardless of career averages, Ellsbury clearly has talent Pagan couldn't even begin to dream of. I don't think Jocketty even looks at this trade unless he believes a healthy Ellsbury is going to produce well beyond Angel Pagan.

Pagan just got a 4-year, $40 million deal. He's not chopped liver. In fact, he's a whole lot better than Mr. Drew Stubbs. If the Reds had signed Pagan (regardless of what you think about the contract), the team would be significantly upgraded in CF for 2013.

And I assume Jocketty is smart enough not to deal for a guy assuming that guy will replicate a career season completely out of step with the rest of his career. I'm sure Jocketty would be hoping Ellsbury could tap into whatever made that 2011 season happen (provided it's not PED-related), but no way is Walt going to pay for him like he's a sure-fire MVP candidate. Ellsbury is an oft-injured, semi-pricey, BA-driven, speed player. He's not a high OB guy and his power was confined to a single season. Taking 2011 out of the equation his ISO is .099, which is on the low side. Pagan has a career .143 ISO.

If you're trading for Ellsbury, you shouldn't pay for him to be any better than his 2009 season - .301/.355/.415. Could he do more? Sure, but banking on it is extremely risky. Given his injury history, there's even a fair amount of risk attached to getting a 2009ish performance from him.

Dom Heffner
12-06-2012, 02:46 PM
I have seperated the two, for good reason.

There is no way Angel Pegan could ever, in his wildest dreams, even taking every PED available, have a year like Ellsbury's 2011.

Career stats over just a few years can be very misleading. Unless you discount Ellsbury's 2011 due to PED's, you have to account for it. Outside of PED users, it's very rare for a player to raise his game as Ellsbury did, and not stay near that level when healthy.

If healthy, I see Ellsbury having a .295/.350/.450 year and Pegan having a .275/330/410 line. For me the big risk with Ellsbury is health. But if healthy, he's a significantly better player than Pegan.

Thank you for this. I was thinking I was living in the Twilight Zone.

Wonderful Monds
12-06-2012, 02:47 PM
The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.

I can't remember the stats Doug has posted multiple times now, but Bailey was around top 20 in every major pitching category. He's a borderline #1 pitcher.

It's not out of hand enough.

Superdude
12-06-2012, 03:31 PM
And I assume Jocketty is smart enough not to deal for a guy assuming that guy will replicate a career season completely out of step with the rest of his career. I'm sure Jocketty would be hoping Ellsbury could tap into whatever made that 2011 season happen (provided it's not PED-related), but no way is Walt going to pay for him like he's a sure-fire MVP candidate. Ellsbury is an oft-injured, semi-pricey, BA-driven, speed player. He's not a high OB guy and his power was confined to a single season. Taking 2011 out of the equation his ISO is .099, which is on the low side. Pagan has a career .143 ISO.

If you're trading for Ellsbury, you shouldn't pay for him to be any better than his 2009 season - .301/.355/.415. Could he do more? Sure, but banking on it is extremely risky. Given his injury history, there's even a fair amount of risk attached to getting a 2009ish performance from him.

No one's banking on him hitting thirty homers, but Boston's probably not going to listen to an offer unless it vaguely reflects the fact that Ellsbury was very recently one of the best players in baseball. It's like asking for EdE back as if was still a .260 20 homerun hitter.

Vottomatic
12-06-2012, 03:36 PM
Boston is going to get............nothing for Ellsbury with those demands.

I thought Corcino/Stubbs for Ellsbury was fair. Simply because they were getting a top 3 Reds prospect, not to mention starting pitcher, and a former #1 pick CFer that is in the doghouse in Stubbs. But both are under control for awhile and still cheap.

And they expect the Reds to take on 1-year of Ellsbury and give them Latos or Bailey?????? That's insane.

If another team gives that much up, then the market really is out of whack.

Every couple or so years, the baseball market gets way out of whack and alot of dumb contracts are handed out.

Superdude
12-06-2012, 03:46 PM
Boston is going to get............nothing for Ellsbury with those demands.

I thought Corcino/Stubbs for Ellsbury was fair. Simply because they were getting a top 3 Reds prospect, not to mention starting pitcher, and a former #1 pick CFer that is in the doghouse in Stubbs. But both are under control for awhile and still cheap.

And they expect the Reds to take on 1-year of Ellsbury and give them Latos or Bailey?????? That's insane.

Where did the Bailey/Latos rumor come from? I haven't seen anything about it.

Rojo
12-06-2012, 03:46 PM
I thought Corcino/Stubbs for Ellsbury was fair.

Well, I liked it anyhow.

Thing is, I'm not sure what's fair. How do you solve a problem like Jacoby?

M2
12-06-2012, 04:05 PM
Thank you for this. I was thinking I was living in the Twilight Zone.

So you think a one-year power spike means he's a guaranteed power hitter? I say fixating on his 2011 season and ignoring the rest of his career (43 runs above average with his bat in 2011, 22 runs below average for the rest of his career) would be a case of living in the Twilight Zone.

I know the media has spoon-fed us the story that Ellsbury is a big deal, but we have access to his actual performance data. You can figure out where the mode, mean and median are with Ellsbury's career. It's not hard to spot that power has been notably absent from his game most seasons. And it's 2012. We understand park effects? Right? This is relatively old school stuff.

I'm all for trading for Ellsbury if it's Corcino and Stubbs, but expecting the 2011 Ellsbury to show up is more hope than reason. You wouldn't expect the 2009 Mauer to show up if you traded for him. I get the maybe-lighting-will-strike-twice notion, especially since the GAB is HR friendly. That said, no way do you pay for maybe-lighting-will-strike-twice.

You can pick through any number of Reds pitching disasters from the aughts and find standout seasons prior to their stint in Cincinnati. I remember being told time and again that those standout seasons were more indicative of those pitchers' true talent than their career marks. It never worked out that way. All I'm saying is "Don't get blinded by the shiny object."

M2
12-06-2012, 04:12 PM
No one's banking on him hitting thirty homers, but Boston's probably not going to listen to an offer unless it vaguely reflects the fact that Ellsbury was very recently one of the best players in baseball. It's like asking for EdE back as if was still a .260 20 homerun hitter.

He was one of the best players in baseball for one season. Before that he was a below average bat and he was back to below average in 2012. Anybody who's trading for Jacoby Ellsbury like he's one of the best players in baseball is a fool. I'm not saying a team couldn't get lucky, but you don't put serious skin in a trade in the hopes you might get lucky.

Jefferson24
12-06-2012, 04:22 PM
Well, I liked it anyhow.

Thing is, I'm not sure what's fair. How do you solve a problem like Jacoby?

You don't solve a problem like Ellsbury, kind of like solving the Stubbs strike-out problem.

I say just walk away from any deal with him. Talent is too hard to come by and you just can't send it packing for an unknown quantity.

If you trade it needs to be quality for quality or fodder for fodder. You can't take a chance of getting stuck on the wrong end of a quality for fodder trade. At least a team with limited resources and limited payroll can not take that chance.

Superdude
12-06-2012, 04:28 PM
He was one of the best players in baseball for one season. Before that he was a below average bat and he was back to below average in 2012. Anybody who's trading for Jacoby Ellsbury like he's one of the best players in baseball is a fool. I'm not saying a team couldn't get lucky, but you don't put serious skin in a trade in the hopes you might get lucky.

Trading for him like he's an MVP isn't my point at all. I'm saying that's a very recent part of his history and trying to enter trade talks without at least acknowledging that is a recipe for Stubbs manning center on opening day.

M2
12-06-2012, 04:55 PM
Trading for him like he's an MVP isn't my point at all. I'm saying that's a very recent part of his history and trying to enter trade talks without at least acknowledging that is a recipe for Stubbs manning center on opening day.

The number of CFs who could be had still exceeds the number of teams actually shopping for CFs.

I can understand the Sox approaching it from the perspective of holding onto Ellsbury unless they're blown away because maybe he'll have a big bounce back, which either helps them contend or drives up his value in the summer window. Yet I see no reason for the Reds to blow the Sox away with an offer.

Walt has four months to upgrade his CF. There's no reason to panic. And the trading partner Walt is looking for is the one willing to employ a little realpolitik rather than one clinging to its emotional baggage over what a player might have become.

_Sir_Charles_
12-06-2012, 04:57 PM
As far as I'm concerned, Ellsbury's 2011 season should be completely ignored by us if we're considering trading for him.

2011 he had 32 hr's in 732 pa's.
Prior to 2011, he had 20 hr's in 1513 mlb pa's.
Prior to 2011, he had 10 hr's in 1192 minor pa's.
In 2012 he had 5 hr's in roughly 350 pa's.

yeah, 2011 was an illusion folks. Outside of 2011 he's never cracked double digits in a season before. Ellsbury's 2011 is more of an aberration than Brady Anderson's ridiculous season was in '96.

REDREAD
12-06-2012, 05:04 PM
Walt has four months to upgrade his CF. There's no reason to panic. And the trading partner Walt is looking for is the one willing to employ a little realpolitik rather than one clinging to its emotional baggage over what a player might have become.

This is a key point.
Minnesota has been very helpful in taking Philly and Wash off the market, in addition to the FA signings that have shrunk the number of suitors.
Boston would probably love to trade Ellsbury and just use Victorino in CF (that makes a lot more sense than wasting Victorino in RF).

The Reds have inhouse options of Stubbs, Heisey, and BHam.. I know last season, CF was the weakest offensive position, but we have to remember that today, LF is the biggest hole. Let's get Ludwick or his replacement in place.
It would not be a tragedy to stand pat in CF, or at least wait it out until the prices start to fall.

Ellsbury's lack of power really helps us in a way. He's not an elite player. He'd be a nice addition, but look at what the trade market valued Span at..
I can't see giving up significantly more.

mdccclxix
12-06-2012, 05:19 PM
Did Minny get more for Revere? Seems like it. Like, way more.

M2
12-06-2012, 05:38 PM
Minnesota has been very helpful in taking Philly and Wash off the market

Michael Bourn may sign with an AL Central team just so he can take vengeance on the Twins for taking out what looked to be his two highest bidders.

klw
12-06-2012, 05:43 PM
Michael Bourn may sign with an AL Central team just so he can take vengeance on the Twins for taking out what looked to be his two highest bidders.

Or maybe Bourn could come to the Reds on a Ryan Madson type one year deal if his market is just shot?

edabbs44
12-06-2012, 05:56 PM
Or maybe Bourn could come to the Reds on a Ryan Madson type one year deal if his market is just shot?

Said the same thing to someone last night.

RedsBaron
12-06-2012, 06:31 PM
Per wlw news Buster Olney reporting this is real, but Boston wants Bailey or Latos.

No

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:: laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

No way

RedsBaron
12-06-2012, 06:34 PM
LH hitters feast on Fenway: David Ortiz, Mike Greenwell, Trot Nixon, Johnny Damon, Scott Cooper (Fenway made his entire career), Fred Lynn, Otis Nixon (switch-hitter, but his numbers as LH hitter during his season in Boston were far better), Troy O'Leary, Billy Goodman, Johnny Pesky, Doc Cramer. There's a century's worth of LH bats - slap hitters, power hitters and everything in between - who have enjoyed the BA benefits of Fenway Park. It's a great hitters park for everyone - no foul territory, big RF, deep to dead center, and you can bang hits off the wall no matter which side you hit from.


Even arguably the greatest hitter who ever lived, as well as his successor in left field, both posted significantly better numbers at Fenway than they did on the road. If Teddy Ballgame and Yaz were unable to hit as well away from Fenway Park as they did at home, then, yes, Fenway favors lefties.

Scrap Irony
12-06-2012, 06:42 PM
Bourn's left. Hamilton can play CF as well. That's the top of the market.

I'd put Ellsbury and Fowler in second echelon. Granderson probably belongs there for one more year.

That third level contains Coco Crisp. Nyjer Morgan's there, IMO. David DeJesus and Juan Pierre could also end up in this strata, as could Gerardo Parra. Peter Bourjos may be available as well.

The last level includes guys like Rajai Davis or reclamation projects such as Grady Sizemore.

The Rangers (who also might prefer to simply use Leonys Martin), Reds, and Brewers are the only teams left looking, are they not?

So, Redszone, who have I left out?

blumj
12-06-2012, 06:52 PM
Well, the Indians made an offer to Victorino, and the Yankees probably could use another OF, if not necessarily a CF, whether they trade Granderson or not, either a 1 year deal or an inexpensive player.

RedRoser
12-06-2012, 06:59 PM
:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:: laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

No way

Send Arroyo back to them! :D

klw
12-06-2012, 07:19 PM
Bourn's left. Hamilton can play CF as well. That's the top of the market.

I'd put Ellsbury and Fowler in second echelon. Granderson probably belongs there for one more year.

That third level contains Coco Crisp. Nyjer Morgan's there, IMO. David DeJesus and Juan Pierre could also end up in this strata, as could Gerardo Parra. Peter Bourjos may be available as well.

The last level includes guys like Rajai Davis or reclamation projects such as Grady Sizemore.

The Rangers (who also might prefer to simply use Leonys Martin), Reds, and Brewers are the only teams left looking, are they not?

So, Redszone, who have I left out?

Are the Braves still looking for CF or are they going with Upton in CF?

M2
12-06-2012, 10:24 PM
Are the Braves still looking for CF or are they going with Upton in CF?

I'm pretty sure they're committed on Upton in CF.