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View Full Version : Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013



REDREAD
12-07-2012, 11:06 AM
I thought this might be a fun prediction thread.

Use whatever numbers you want.. predict what you think Chapman is going to do as a starter this season.

I'm going to say 150 IP, 4.30 ERA.. He'll have some good games and stinkers as well.

dunner13
12-07-2012, 11:25 AM
175IP 16-4 , 2.89 ERA 194K's
and leads us to a World Series by dominating in the playoffs, might be shooting a little high but hey you have to stay optimistic...

Steve4192
12-07-2012, 11:26 AM
I'm going to say 150 IP, 4.30 ERA.. He'll have some good games and stinkers as well.

That's about what I think. I'd probably go a little lower on both the innings and the ERA, but that is in the ballpark. He'll tantalize with some AMAZING performances, have a few awful starts that jack up his ERA, and make at least one trip to the DL before having to be shut down early with arm fatigue.

*BaseClogger*
12-07-2012, 12:36 PM
As a starting pitcher:

80 IP, 80 Ks, 35 BBs, 3.75 ERA

As a relief pitcher:

35 IP, 50 Ks, 15 BBs, 2.25 ERA

MikeS21
12-07-2012, 12:42 PM
120 Innings, 120 K's, 80 BB's, 5.25 ERA

klw
12-07-2012, 12:43 PM
28 starts, 168 innings, 3.68 era, 213 k's

LoganBuck
12-07-2012, 01:11 PM
4-6 75IP 5.25 ERA 85K 60BB

DL on Memorial Day with Arm/Shoulder/Elbow problems. Reds medical staff monkeys around, surgery in September. Doesn't pitch again until September 2014.

I am really worried about him holding up in the rotation. His mechanics get funky when he is tired.

Steve4192
12-07-2012, 01:16 PM
I often find it useful to evaluate starters on a start-by-start basis rather than by their accumulated totals.

I think Chapman will give us somewhere in the realm of two-dozen starts with zero complete games (assuming Dusty doesn't slag his arm) and an average somewhere around 5.5 innings/start. Of those two-dozen starts, I expect about a third to be official 'quality starts', another third to be decent starts where he just misses the six inning cutoff for a QS or gives up one too many runs, and a final third to be flat-out bad performances.

When you add it all up, I think he will be an occasionally brilliant but mostly inconsistent starter in 2013 and will wind up with 'meh' overall numbers. He might eventually be a staff ace, but that won't happen until 2014 or 2015 if it does at all. IMO, 2013 team would be better off with him in the bullpen, but I understand the Red's desire to see if he can become the kind of guy to contend for Cy Young awards year after year. Finding the answer to that question might be worth sacrificing a some bullpen production in 2013.

WildcatFan
12-07-2012, 03:01 PM
165 ip, 180 Ks, 70 BBs, 4.04 ERA

indy_dave00
12-07-2012, 03:34 PM
I could see something along the lines of 12-6 3.25 era 165 innings 190-200 k's.

Scrap Irony
12-07-2012, 03:52 PM
He won't be as good as his numbers were in a closer's role; then again, if they were, he'd be Walter Johnson.

I'm going to guess he gets pulled in at least one game where he hasn't given up a hit because he's approaching 120 pitches.

I think he'll be the best fifth starter in the league. When healthy.

PuffyPig
12-07-2012, 04:20 PM
4-6 75IP 5.25 ERA 85K 60BB

DL on Memorial Day with Arm/Shoulder/Elbow problems. Reds medical staff monkeys around, surgery in September. Doesn't pitch again until September 2014.

I am really worried about him holding up in the rotation. His mechanics get funky when he is tired.

So, he'll go 4-6, with 75 ininngs pitched, in 8 starts.

Wow!!!

Benihana
12-07-2012, 05:56 PM
6-4, 4.30 era. 130 ip, 150k.

RedsManRick
12-07-2012, 07:55 PM
24 starts, 20 relief appearances 150 innings, 3.40 era, 1.35 WHIP, 170 Ks. He starts out strong, but struggles mightily with control over the summer and gets put back in the pen in August where he finishes the season. He never makes another start as a Red after 2013.

RedEye
12-07-2012, 09:12 PM
24 starts, 20 relief appearances 150 innings, 3.40 era, 1.35 WHIP, 170 Ks. He starts out strong, but struggles mightily with control over the summer and gets put back in the pen in August where he finishes the season. He never makes another start as a Red after 2013.

Goodness, that's a depressing outlook.

RedEye
12-07-2012, 09:16 PM
10-11, 4.15 ERA, 150 IP, 175 K, 80 BB

His stats look a lot like Volquez in 2013 but in 2014 he hits the ground running and wins 20 with 200 IP, 220 K and an ERA around 3.50.