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Benihana
12-07-2012, 11:41 AM
When looking at the Reds entire minor league system, there seems to be a massive dropoff after the Top 5 prospects (Hamilton, Stephenson, Cingrani, Corcino and Gregorius). Given that 4 of those 5 are likely to graduate to the bigs after 2013, who is your pick to join Stephenson atop the next generation of Reds Top Prospects rankings?

Who will emerge from the pack this year to be an elite prospect?

dougdirt
12-07-2012, 12:16 PM
I have two of those guys ranked higher than Cingrani and Gregorius already....

Benihana
12-07-2012, 12:19 PM
I have two of those guys ranked higher than Cingrani and Gregorius already....

Who else besides Winker?

dougdirt
12-07-2012, 12:19 PM
I went with Winker. It just seems like the safest bet. I haven't seen Travieso pitch yet and while I love the reports on him, just not sure he can make the leap up to elite just yet. I expect him in Billings to begin the year and by that time Winker will have 250 plate appearances under his belt in Dayton. May be tough for him, as a corner outfielder, to vault up too high before he reaches the upper minor leagues though.

dougdirt
12-07-2012, 12:19 PM
Who else besides Winker?

Travieso.

mace
12-07-2012, 02:22 PM
My vote for Winker was challenged by Guillon, who came on very strong late last year.

Edd Roush
12-07-2012, 04:57 PM
Agreed with Doug on liking Travieso and Winker more than Didi already. Unlike Doug, I like Cingrani more than both of those two.

I also went with Winker over the rest in this poll, because Winker had a phenomenal 2012 and has the most indicators pointing his way for being this system's next stud. It's hard to pass over a .943 OPS in advanced rookie ball by a 18/19 year old.

By the way, I can't believe Yorman is getting the kind of votes he is getting after the last two years he has put together. Must be a lot of toolsy guys voting today.

Benihana
12-07-2012, 05:25 PM
My vote for Winker was challenged by Guillon, who came on very strong late last year.

This is my thinking as well. I think I'd rank Reds prospects like this:

1. Hamilton
2. Stephenson
3. Cingrani
4. Corcino
5. Gregorius
6. Winker
7. Guillon
8. Lotzkar
(tie) Travieso

klw
12-07-2012, 05:47 PM
My pick is Neftali Soto. I guess you could argue that 2011 was his breakout season but with his adjustment year this year I think he is in a position this year to have a breakout year. He will be 24 and in his second season at AAA. Hopefully if he stays healthy he can return to a 30 homer season.

19braves77
12-07-2012, 06:04 PM
Wes Mugarian

Benihana
12-07-2012, 08:57 PM
Wes Mugarian

Seriously?


Major props if it happens. Despite his high draft status, I don't even have Mugarian as a top 3 guy in his rotation.

HokieRed
12-07-2012, 10:20 PM
Waldrop. Steady improvement to date, ready to make a jump.

RED VAN HOT
12-07-2012, 10:22 PM
My vote is for Winker. His line at Billings is similar to Votto's at that level and age except that Jesse's plate discipline was even better. I was tempted to vote for Langfield. He had excellent peripherals at Billings and I would not be surprised if he ends the year in AA.

JaxRed
12-07-2012, 10:54 PM
I'm with Hokie.... Waldrop

JayBruceFan
12-08-2012, 12:13 AM
Wes Mugarian

Same here

lollipopcurve
12-08-2012, 08:42 AM
I think Drew Cisco may establish himself as a legitimate SP prospect in 2013. Back end guy, like Leake, but it seems he may have consistently plus pitchability.

JaxRed
12-08-2012, 09:47 AM
Wes Mugarian

Noticed on last years poll you chose Wes also, and that he was born in Pensacola...... friend or relative?

Superdude
12-08-2012, 10:10 AM
My vote is for Winker. His line at Billings is similar to Votto's at that level and age except that Jesse's plate discipline was even better. I was tempted to vote for Langfield. He had excellent peripherals at Billings and I would not be surprised if he ends the year in AA.

I like the Langfield pick.

Red Swagger
12-08-2012, 11:55 PM
Henry Rodriguez

11larkin11
12-09-2012, 12:17 AM
I think this is the year that Ryan Lamarre finally gets the power to go along with his OBP, speed, and defense.

texasdave
12-09-2012, 12:26 AM
The Cisco Kid.

RedsManRick
12-09-2012, 11:25 AM
I went Winker. He's a big, young, strong kid with a decent idea of what he's doing at the plate.

Wonderful Monds
12-09-2012, 11:17 PM
I'll say Amir Garrett, to pick someone different.

Scrap Irony
12-10-2012, 11:57 AM
Tucker Barnhart. (Though it's way too early to be doing this, IMO.)

If not he, I still like Juan Perez who basically skipped Billings two years ago, then took half a season in Dayton to find his stroke. A middle infielder who might OP 800 in the majors with good patience, a decent idea of how to handle the bat, and okay speed? I'll take that.

At what point do Steve Selsky and Bryson Smith begin to count? If you consider more of the same from both but at a higher level, add them as well. Smith has a BA-driven OBP and a little pop. He won't K much, but needs to walk more. Selsky hits at a high BA rate and with good power. His Ks aren't out of whack either. I think Smith might take over for Hamilton in AA and put up a line of .300/ .345/ .425, while Selsky goes .310 /.350/ .500. Both are too old for their respective leagues and might be pushed forward. (Selsky moreso than Smith.)

Steve4192
12-10-2012, 12:22 PM
My pick is Neftali Soto. I guess you could argue that 2011 was his breakout season but with his adjustment year this year I think he is in a position this year to have a breakout year. He will be 24 and in his second season at AAA. Hopefully if he stays healthy he can return to a 30 homer season.

I don't think Soto will be ever be considered an ELITE prospect due to his lack of defensive skills and his age (elite prospects are already in the majors by his age).

That said, I do think he is still a viable prospect and might be able to help the Reds as a righty power bat off the bench or as trade bait. I would like to see Louisville use him in the OF next year just to see if he can fill a 'four corners' sub role, since there clearly aren't going to be a lot of at bats for him with the big league team as a 1B (barring injury).

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 01:54 PM
Tucker Barnhart. (Though it's way too early to be doing this, IMO.)

If not he, I still like Juan Perez who basically skipped Billings two years ago, then took half a season in Dayton to find his stroke. A middle infielder who might OP 800 in the majors with good patience, a decent idea of how to handle the bat, and okay speed? I'll take that.


I posted about it over at my website (http://redsminorleagues.com/2012/12/04/juan-perez-then-and-now/) just last week, but around the first week of June Juan Perez made some swing changes and that is right around the time that his hitting numbers starting picking up. He really calmed things down in his swing, lost a big leg kick, dropped his hands and elbow a little bit.

mdccclxix
12-10-2012, 01:54 PM
I'm a little surprised no one is taking Travieso. Like last year with Stephenson, you can't forget about the kid. He's got a nice mix of pitches and can reach 98. His arm has very little work on it. Could be a fast riser. I would have taken him if Winker wasn't so strong in his debut. I think now Winker may have already broken out, so maybe he shouldn't be on this list. I like the Lamarre and Langfield mentions. Rodriguez doesn't strike me as a guy that will climb above where we would expect him to be.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 01:58 PM
I'm a little surprised no one is taking Travieso. Like last year with Stephenson, you can't forget about the kid. He's got a nice mix of pitches and can reach 98. His arm has very little work on it. Could be a fast riser. I would have taken him if Winker wasn't so strong in his debut. I think now Winker may have already broken out, so maybe he shouldn't be on this list. I like the Lamarre and Langfield mentions. Rodriguez doesn't strike me as a guy that will climb above where we would expect him to be.

With Travieso, it will be interesting. There is no chance that he begins the year in Dayton. It is real tough to vault up when you don't play until the middle of June. Stephenson made such a move, but it is very rare. I wouldn't bank on Travieso doing it just yet. Hopeful that he can, but I wouldn't bank on it for 2013.

What I get surprised by is when we are looking for already well regarded guys to jump up rather than guys who are under the radar who could jump up.

nheath22
12-10-2012, 02:24 PM
At what point do Steve Selsky and Bryson Smith begin to count? If you consider more of the same from both but at a higher level, add them as well. Smith has a BA-driven OBP and a little pop. He won't K much, but needs to walk more. Selsky hits at a high BA rate and with good power. His Ks aren't out of whack either. I think Smith might take over for Hamilton in AA and put up a line of .300/ .345/ .425, while Selsky goes .310 /.350/ .500. Both are too old for their respective leagues and might be pushed forward. (Selsky moreso than Smith.)

I agree with your analysis of Steve Selsky and he is my pick to move up the prospect ranks this year. I know he is still very young and only in A ball currently, but after watching him in Dayton a couple of times this year, the kid can hit and has a lot of potential. Based on the way he finished the season with Bakersfield, winning the Reds minor league hitter of the year, I think he will continue to move up the prospects boards next season.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 03:22 PM
I agree with your analysis of Steve Selsky and he is my pick to move up the prospect ranks this year. I know he is still very young and only in A ball currently, but after watching him in Dayton a couple of times this year, the kid can hit and has a lot of potential. Based on the way he finished the season with Bakersfield, winning the Reds minor league hitter of the year, I think he will continue to move up the prospects boards next season.

I am still skeptical about Selsky. Here is why:

Late round pick
Hit in Arizona (hitters paradise)
Hit in the Pioneer League (hitters paradise)
Didn't hit much in the Midwest League (neutral environment)
Hit in the California League (hitters paradise)

So he is a guy who has hit well when he was in very hitter friendly leagues, but didn't do much in the only neutral league he has played in so far.

With that said, his time in Dayton, where he didn't really hit well, is the only place he showed poor plate discipline too. Breaking balls aren't quite as sharp in a lot of the California League stadiums, so that could be a tiny part of it, but it is interesting that his plate discipline was much stronger at a higher level in 2012 than it was in Dayton. You wouldn't really expect that.

There is some intrigue there. Swing looks a lot like that of Heisey. I am just not ready to fully buy in yet.

lollipopcurve
12-10-2012, 04:01 PM
I've liked Selsky all along. More athletic than he's given credit for. I liked what I saw of him in Dayton. I think his power is legit -- he's a rangy guy with some leverage to his swing. I believe he missed a year with injury in college. Had that not happened, he'd have been a higher draft.

camisadelgolf
12-10-2012, 05:15 PM
Selsky has the tools to be a fourth outfielder--something I wouldn't say about Bryson Smith. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but we should take Selsky's excellent production with a grain of salt.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 05:16 PM
I've liked Selsky all along. More athletic than he's given credit for. I liked what I saw of him in Dayton. I think his power is legit -- he's a rangy guy with some leverage to his swing. I believe he missed a year with injury in college. Had that not happened, he'd have been a higher draft.

Don't get me wrong, I like him. I have him as a Top 40 prospect. I am just not sure he is more than a Chris Heisey type of guy at the plate, but with less defensive value. Solid prospect, useful guy with Major League potential. Just unsure that he is anything more than that.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 05:17 PM
Selsky has the tools to be a fourth outfielder--something I wouldn't say about Bryson Smith. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but we should take Selsky's excellent production with a grain of salt.

Does this mean you like Smith more or less than Selsky? I can't read into it either way.

Benihana
12-10-2012, 05:35 PM
Selsky has the tools to be a fourth outfielder--something I wouldn't say about Bryson Smith. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but we should take Selsky's excellent production with a grain of salt.

Exactly. If we're lucky, Selsky could be another in the long line of Chris Heisey, Brady Clark, Chris Denorfia, Mike Frank, Steve Gibraltar, Ben Broussard and Dave Sappelt- overachieving outfielders that may someday make the show as a 4th OF (which is not nothing) but fool some into believing they could be a longterm starting OF in the major leagues due to their overperformance in the low-to-mid-minors.

I'd probably put Bryson Smith in this boat as well.

It sounds bad and/or intellectually lazy to say, but if a guy is drafted after the 12th round, doesn't play a premium defensive position and/or doesn't have the projectable frame, he is going to have to do A WHOLE LOT as far as sustained performance in order for me to take him seriously as a potential major league starter- especially at a non-premium defensive position. Sure 1 of 1000 breaks out, but we have to remember its 1 out of 1000.

camisadelgolf
12-10-2012, 06:11 PM
Does this mean you like Smith more or less than Selsky? I can't read into it either way.
I like Selsky's ceiling more than Smith's. I'm not expecting much out of either of them at the MLB level (would love to be proved wrong though), but if I had to pick which one is going to have a noteworthy MLB career, I'd go with Selsky.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 06:16 PM
I like Selsky's ceiling more than Smith's. I'm not expecting much out of either of them at the MLB level (would love to be proved wrong though), but if I had to pick which one is going to have a noteworthy MLB career, I'd go with Selsky.

See, I am on the other side of the boat. Selsky probably has the higher ceiling, but I like the floor of Smith a whole lot more because he can play center and is a high rate of contact hitter. Better profile as a backup outfielder for me.

camisadelgolf
12-10-2012, 06:49 PM
See, I am on the other side of the boat. Selsky probably has the higher ceiling, but I like the floor of Smith a whole lot more because he can play center and is a high rate of contact hitter. Better profile as a backup outfielder for me.
Yeah, I see it pretty much the same way. It's just semantics at this point. A higher floor doesn't really do anything for me when it comes to prospects like this.

Ohayou
12-10-2012, 08:44 PM
Guillon. I also really like Waldrop/Cisco. And Winker, of course.

powersackers
12-13-2012, 02:20 AM
Donald Lutz. Not even mentioned by any of you yet. He's the next impact Major Leaguer that hasn't debuted yet but will.

redsof72
12-13-2012, 09:27 AM
Same guy as I suggested last year...Chad Rogers. Not sure why he is not getting his due credit. Donald Lutz is a good call too. I have not seem him yet but many say that Sal Romano could really come on, although it may take him a while to get there.

Selsky will be an interesting player to watch this season in light of his exceptional second half in a great hitter's environment. He is a good all-around ballplayer but not exceptional in any area. Comparisons to Heisey as a hitter may be valid but I do not think they are similar players defensively. Selsky has solid but not exceptional baseball skills in the outfield but he is nowhere near as athletic as Heisey. Not even close.

mdccclxix
12-13-2012, 09:48 AM
Donald Lutz. Not even mentioned by any of you yet. He's the next impact Major Leaguer that hasn't debuted yet but will.

The org thinks of him as a younger player since he started so late. As a lefty, he could potentially take on LF in 2015 if he can stick.

Benihana
12-13-2012, 10:33 AM
Same guy as I suggested last year...Chad Rogers. Not sure why he is not getting his due credit. Donald Lutz is a good call too. I have not seem him yet but many say that Sal Romano could really come on, although it may take him a while to get there.

Selsky will be an interesting player to watch this season in light of his exceptional second half in a great hitter's environment. He is a good all-around ballplayer but not exceptional in any area. Comparisons to Heisey as a hitter may be valid but I do not think they are similar players defensively. Selsky has solid but not exceptional baseball skills in the outfield but he is nowhere near as athletic as Heisey. Not even close.

Do you think Rogers can be a #3 starter in the majors? Everything I've seen and/or heard has him as a #5 or bullpen guy.

corkedbat
12-13-2012, 11:01 AM
Went with YRod for no other reason than a breakout year for him would be the best thing for the system. Enormous potential, but not a lot of production as of yet. Seemed to somewhat come around after his extended Spring Training stint last year - hope he can build upon it. More of a prayer than a prediction actually.

redsof72
12-13-2012, 12:27 PM
Do you think Rogers can be a #3 starter in the majors? Everything I've seen and/or heard has him as a #5 or bullpen guy.

Not sure yet. I think it is hard to project the difference between a #3 and a #5. Mike Leake was the Reds #5 in 2012. In 2011, he was probably their second best starter. Homer Bailey was a #4 in 2012 and in 2011 he was probably #3 even though he actually was better in 2012.

I guess when someone says they project a guy as a #5, that is a way of saying they are not totally sold on the idea that, with his mix of pitches, he can get the same hitter out multiple times in the same game and that he might wind up in the bullpen where he only has to show the hitter his stuff one time.

Rogers has a big league arm for sure. He might be Sam Lecure. He might be something a little more than that. He might be something much more than that.

As we have discussed before, there is not nearly as much consensus on prospects among scouts as you would think. Example: What is the projection for Daniel Corcino? Based on what I read, maybe a #3 starter? I have probably talked to 20 scouts who watched Corcino pitch and at least half said future reliever. He may turn out to be better than a #3, but there are many scouts that do not see him as even a 5.

dougdirt
12-13-2012, 01:39 PM
Same guy as I suggested last year...Chad Rogers. Not sure why he is not getting his due credit. Donald Lutz is a good call too. I have not seem him yet but many say that Sal Romano could really come on, although it may take him a while to get there.

Selsky will be an interesting player to watch this season in light of his exceptional second half in a great hitter's environment. He is a good all-around ballplayer but not exceptional in any area. Comparisons to Heisey as a hitter may be valid but I do not think they are similar players defensively. Selsky has solid but not exceptional baseball skills in the outfield but he is nowhere near as athletic as Heisey. Not even close.

I had Rogers in my Top 15 prospects, so I am on board that train, so to speak. Needs a third pitch, but the two he has are ones I really like, even as a starter.

Not so sure with Lutz. Still really aggressive at the plate. Still needs some work in left. If he can't play left, he can't hit enough to be a first baseman.

I am also on the Romano train. I really liked the little bit I had a chance to see of him this year. I don't think this will be his breakout year, but I think he could be someone to really talk about one day.

Vottomatic
12-13-2012, 03:30 PM
I'm keeping my eye on Seth Brean.

dougdirt
12-13-2012, 03:33 PM
I'm keeping my eye on Seth Brean.

Also a good one. There is another guy that I have on my "could vault 20-30 places up my personal list in 2013" that isn't mentioned yet in here.

VottoFan54
12-16-2012, 02:53 PM
I voted Rahier, but I agree with Vottomatic that Seth Mejias-Brean is a good candidate to breakout.

Vottomatic
12-16-2012, 10:35 PM
In terms of the poll, I wanted to vote for 2 - Winker and Guillon.

Lockdwn11
12-17-2012, 06:07 PM
I voted Rahier, but I agree with Vottomatic that Seth Mejias-Brean is a good candidate to breakout.

I went Rahier as well. I like the kids tools before the draft and still do. I'm hoping he can put it together this year.