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View Full Version : James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City



Tom Servo
12-09-2012, 11:01 PM
Marc Topkin
@TBTimes_Rays

Hearing #Rays have traded Shields AND Davis to #Royals. Working on confirmation and return


Gotta figure Myers is heading to Tampa.

Tornon
12-09-2012, 11:04 PM
It looks like it's for Myers & other prospects

Tornon
12-09-2012, 11:20 PM
Shields, Davis, & a PTBNL for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, & Patrick Leonard

Patrick Bateman
12-09-2012, 11:24 PM
Hate this trade for the Royals. Maybe if they were one pitcher away from being a world series contender and their window was closing this would make sense.

But moving Myers, in addition to multiple interesting pitching prospects for a pitcher I would not characterize as an ace, on a team that had a strong enough farm system to stay the course for another few years I think this could be very costly long term.

Shields, Davis, Santana, Guthrie.... still not that strong of a rotation considering the cash and prospects it was required to shell out. I don't think they were ready for a move like this for another few seasons.

757690
12-09-2012, 11:29 PM
Shields, Davis, & a PTBNL for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, & Patrick Leonard

Two above average starter pitchers for the Royals top hitting prospect and top two pitching prospects, plus their #5 draft pick from this year.

I wonder if the Rays are rebuilding, and if Price will be available soon.

757690
12-09-2012, 11:35 PM
Hate this trade for the Royals. Maybe if they were one pitcher away from being a world series contender and their window was closing this would make sense.

But moving Myers, in addition to multiple interesting pitching prospects for a pitcher I would not characterize as an ace, on a team that had a strong enough farm system to stay the course for another few years I think this could be very costly long term.

Shields, Davis, Santana, Guthrie.... still not that strong of a rotation considering the cash and prospects it was required to shell out. I don't think they were ready for a move like this for another few seasons.

I agree. Not sure if he was available, but for that price, I would have demanded David Price.

I will note that Montgomery had a real bad year last year, but Myers and Odorizzi themselves are worth more than Shields and Davis.

Vottomatic
12-10-2012, 12:21 AM
One of the dumber trades I've seen in awhile.

KC should be modeling their rebuilding after the Reds.

They simply should have brought up their top pitching prospects (if ready) and Wil Myers and let them grow in the majors. Maybe traded away some older parts for lots of prospects. Rebuild the farm system like the Reds have done.

A few good pitchers aren't going to help that team right now.

Wonderful Monds
12-10-2012, 12:24 AM
So much for the Royals being relevant anytime soon. They probably just set themselves back a couple years, IMO.

Wouldn't mind David Price, who's already been rumored as available. I wouldn't want to pay Hamilton for him though, so no dice I guess.

cincinnati chili
12-10-2012, 12:28 AM
I feel really bad for Royals fans, and I actually like Shields. Dayton Moore should seriously go before the firing squad for this one.

The usually level-headed Rany Jazayerli, M.D., gives the deal a two-word review:

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2012/12/complete-analysis-of-myers-shields-trade.html

757690
12-10-2012, 12:56 AM
The worst part of the deal is that both Shields and Davis have big contracts. For the amount of money the Royals will have to pay them, they could have just signed Lohse or Sanchez and kept their prospects.

gilpdawg
12-10-2012, 12:57 AM
You know what they say, anytime you can trade your farm to go from bad to mediocre, you gotta do it.


Wait. No one ever says that.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 12:58 AM
The worst part of the deal is that both Shields and Davis have big contracts. For the amount of money the Royals will have to pay them, they could have just signed Lohse or Sanchez and kept their prospects.

Unless guys have no interest at all in signing in Kansas City. Which is something that often gets overlooked.

Going from the AL East to the AL Central will likely do good things for Shields and Davis.

Still, I see this as a rather large overpay.

757690
12-10-2012, 01:12 AM
Unless guys have no interest at all in signing in Kansas City. Which is something that often gets overlooked.

Going from the AL East to the AL Central will likely do good things for Shields and Davis.

Still, I see this as a rather large overpay.

That's a good point. But I still think they could have spent the $30+M better somehow, and not given up prospects.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 01:19 AM
That's a good point. But I still think they could have spent the $30+M better somehow, and not given up prospects.

I agree. There were better ways to spend the money without losing the prospects, but they were able to add some impact talent rather than average talent.

Patrick Bateman
12-10-2012, 01:24 AM
If I were them, I would have stayed the course with the prospects.

Could have done a similar move to what they did with Santana, in getting Haren locked in for a year. He's probably not quite Shields at the moment, but he's pretty close. Shields could just as easily follow Haren's career arch anyways considering how similar pitchers they are.

There were plenty of ways to make improvements to their pitching staff this year considering the money they have been able to take on with Guthrie, Santana, Shields, and Davis. I liked their plan up until tonight where they seemed committed to not locking in dumb contracts. It gave them the opportunity to field a reasonable ballclub and hold onto their prospects. Once the Moustakas/Hosmer/Myers group and young pitching started to successfully transistion to the majors, that's when you maybe thing about making the major splash and move the prospect surplus. The rest of the team just hasn't proven their worth enough to make the fit right now. Completely missed the timing on this.

M2
12-10-2012, 01:57 AM
I don't think this one is as automatic a win for the Rays as it may seem.

1) Shields is a legit top tier pitcher and Davis just had a stud season in relief. That's a big boost to the Royals' pitching staff.

2) The Royals have the money to spend.

3) Royals prospects have a way of crashing and burning. If you look at a modern history of the KC franchise, it would have been a lot better off trading guys like Jeff Granger, Jim Pittsley, Dee Brown, Chris George, Runelvys Hernandez, Kyle Snyder, Jimmy Gobble, Angel Berroa, Colt Griffin, Chris Lubanski and Luke Hochevar before they disintegrated. Myers looks like the real thing, but Odorizzi is no sure thing and Montgomery has been a bust so far. I think there's a general assumption that the Rays can polish turds into diamonds, and they very well may need to with the arms coming over from KC.

And what if Myers isn't awesome? Kind of like how Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas haven't been awesome yet. And how it took Alex Gordon five years to figure things out. If Tampa Bay gave up Shields for that, then this deal isn't going to look so good on their end.

On the flipside, the Royals had a fairly poor offense last season. I know the in-house thinking is that the lineup will come around, but you don't get to be Royals-bad having just one flaw.

cinreds21
12-10-2012, 02:04 AM
I can think of 10 other pitchers I'd trade Myers for before thinking of Shields. I don't find him as elite as some.

mth123
12-10-2012, 02:48 AM
I don't think this one is as automatic a win for the Rays as it may seem.

1) Shields is a legit top tier pitcher and Davis just had a stud season in relief. That's a big boost to the Royals' pitching staff.

2) The Royals have the money to spend.

3) Royals prospects have a way of crashing and burning. If you look at a modern history of the KC franchise, it would have been a lot better off trading guys like Jeff Granger, Jim Pittsley, Dee Brown, Chris George, Runelvys Hernandez, Kyle Snyder, Jimmy Gobble, Angel Berroa, Colt Griffin, Chris Lubanski and Luke Hochevar before they disintegrated. Myers looks like the real thing, but Odorizzi is no sure thing and Montgomery has been a bust so far. I think there's a general assumption that the Rays can polish turds into diamonds, and they very well may need to with the arms coming over from KC.

And what if Myers isn't awesome? Kind of like how Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas haven't been awesome yet. And how it took Alex Gordon five years to figure things out. If Tampa Bay gave up Shields for that, then this deal isn't going to look so good on their end.

On the flipside, the Royals had a fairly poor offense last season. I know the in-house thinking is that the lineup will come around, but you don't get to be Royals-bad having just one flaw.

Seconded. Shields was the best guy in this deal. Myers might be good some day. I'm very skeptical of the arms KC traded. If this is the year that Hosmer amd Moustakas put it together, this deal makes the Royals a contender. That's something they weren't going to be without making a move like this.

Glad the Reds didn't deal any of Bailey, Latos, Cueto or Chapman for Myers.

Brutus
12-10-2012, 03:19 AM
I can think of 10 other pitchers I'd trade Myers for before thinking of Shields. I don't find him as elite as some.

Even in naming 10, it puts him in some pretty darn good company. He's been an absolute hoss the last two seasons.

Vottomatic
12-10-2012, 06:51 AM
Tampa will probably turn around and trade Myers to the Reds for Mez. ;)

camisadelgolf
12-10-2012, 07:03 AM
I'm apparently the only person on the planet who thinks the Rays got hosed.

hebroncougar
12-10-2012, 08:07 AM
This is what happens when a GM of a crappy team in a crappy market gets desperate to save his job.

chicoruiz
12-10-2012, 08:14 AM
Apparently the Royals aren't buying the Tigers as an AL Central juggernaut- they're shifting into "go for it" mode.

Dom Heffner
12-10-2012, 08:21 AM
I'm apparently the only person on the planet who thinks the Rays got hosed.

Yeah, I'd rather have what I know rather than what could be. Myers would have to be pretty good to make this a good deal for the Rays.

lidspinner
12-10-2012, 08:24 AM
I'm apparently the only person on the planet who thinks the Rays got hosed.


I am on your side too....I dont think they got hosed but I think KC looks good in this....prospects are just that, prospects....sure they are cheap but you just never know how long its going to take them to pan out, if they ever pan out....with James you at least know your getting a stud pitcher who no longer has to face the likes of the Yankees and other teams in that div that usually does well....I think KC will do well

lollipopcurve
12-10-2012, 09:44 AM
I like this trade for KC, especially if they can extend Shields.

They've been waiting on pitching prospects forever, and it hasn't produced anything. On the other hand, their young position players are primed to be perhaps the strongest such group in baseball. An infield of Hosmer -- Colon -- Escobar -- Moustakas -- Perez. I doubt there's a better young infield in baseball. Add Butler at DH and Gordon in LF. That's an offense. Give those guys some legit pitching, and I think they could become very dangerous.

The Rays got prospects. Myers looks good, but remains unproven with a high K rate in AAA. The pitchers do not project as elite right now. Rays are taking on some risk here, Royals are deciding to go for it. Good for them, because that young group is ripe and ready, IMO.

Benihana
12-10-2012, 10:02 AM
I think it's a very smart trade for the Rays. They weren't going to win anything in the AL East for the next two years, with the Blue Jays making huge moves, the Orioles still riding their playoff high, the Red Sox beginning to reload, and the Yankees being the Yankees.

Now they are rebuilding a window for success from 2015-2020. I wouldn't be surprised to see Price go next for a boatload of guys that can help for that window.

As far as the Royals go, they are kind of like where the Reds were five years ago in that they can produce decent hitting prospects but have no real pitching to speak of whatsoever. In a way, this is kind of like the Royals equivalent of the Hamilton-for-Volquez deal, only Myers is less proven than Hamilton was and Shields is obviously a lot more proven than Volquez was. Therefore, I don't see it as completely one-sided, although if I had to choose I certainly prefer the Rays side of this deal.

Interestingly, this is somewhat akin to the inverse of what Tampa did when they shipped out Delmon Young for Matt Garza. That one worked out pretty well for them- I'm guessing this one likely will as well, it's just that we might not see the real dividends until 2-3 years from now.

IslandRed
12-10-2012, 10:03 AM
Yeah... it's more about the timing than anything else. Acquiring affordable front-line starting pitching is going to leave a mark, as we found out last winter. And I think Myers is going to end up on the very-nice-player track, not the superstar track. In pure baseball terms, it would be defensible for KC if they were in a "go for it" position. I'm not sure they were, though.

For what it's worth, I know a handful of Rays fans and they're in "trust Friedman" mode here, because they know Wil Myers is not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper.

REDREAD
12-10-2012, 10:48 AM
Shields, Davis, & a PTBNL for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, & Patrick Leonard

Well, at first glance, it looks like Tampa should've traded us Shields last year.
Supposedly they were offered what we offered for Latos (of course no way to prove that). Looks like their waiting game backfired, and they got less for Shields.

Although I must admit I'm not an expert on KC prospects, but this looks like a good deal for them. It's hard to fault a team like KC for trying to be relevant and adding talent. This will certainly make them a better team.

RedlegJake
12-10-2012, 11:05 AM
KC almost had to make a deal like this to stave off fan apathy - even worse than Reds a decade earlier. It is bad here for local fans. Real bad. They are hoping the offense finds its young footing and the central is winnable. Despite Detroits title it really is too. This is a big play but if they aren't at least competitive they may play before fewer fans in September than a little league squad. Imo Odorizzi was overrated and Montgomery was lost last year. I'd take Corcino as equal or better to Jake. As someone said Royals prospects do underwhelm especially pitchers.

RedsManRick
12-10-2012, 11:09 AM
For the way some people talk about the value of relievers around here, I'm surprised Wade Davis is being basically ignored. He's got an interesting profile. Big tall guy with a decent fastball, but who thrives on his curve. Came up fairly well touted, but wasn't very good as a starter. However, after a move to the bullpen he became dominant. Sound like anybody else we know?

mattfeet
12-10-2012, 11:10 AM
Marshall V2.

Team Clark
12-10-2012, 11:17 AM
Flabbergasted at the fleecing of Dayton Moore.

First, any deal that was on the table for 31 year old James Shields, who has logged A LOT of innings, should not have included Myers. Odorizzi and Montgomery alone get that deal done, IMO. TB has to be moving money to pay for Longoria.

Second, KC has a lot of good talent that is nearly ready. Especially pitching. They rushed several of their prospects and injured a few in the process. Just stay the course. You're small market! Act like it. LOL

Third, the only reason I can think of why the change in course is this... Dayton Moore had to have been put on notice. "You win this year or you're gone" Why would you spend all this time crafting your player development plan and then just throw it away??

Finally, if you're this serious sign Bourn TODAY! Go for it and shut us up.

Cedric
12-10-2012, 11:29 AM
Ton of innings lately for Shields. Also making a pile o' cash. That isn't worth six years of a cost controlled player with the projected profile of Myers.

RedlegJake
12-10-2012, 11:43 AM
Flabbergasted at the fleecing of Dayton Moore.

First, any deal that was on the table for 31 year old James Shields, who has logged A LOT of innings, should not have included Myers. Odorizzi and Montgomery alone get that deal done, IMO. TB has to be moving money to pay for Longoria.

Second, KC has a lot of good talent that is nearly ready. Especially pitching. They rushed several of their prospects and injured a few in the process. Just stay the course. You're small market! Act like it. LOL

Third, the only reason I can think of why the change in course is this... Dayton Moore had to have been put on notice. "You win this year or you're gone" Why would you spend all this time crafting your player development plan and then just throw it away??

Finally, if you're this serious sign Bourn TODAY! Go for it and shut us up.
TC you're ignoring the fact they didn't touch their best pitching prospects which were NOT Odo and Montgomery or that they still have a top ten farm just similar to the Reds the best guys are now AA and lower. Lots to like on their farm and they have primo draft position this year again. They hardly sold their tomorrow for today. Is it a reach? Heck yes...but fans are furious here...I think Moore had mmarching orders from Glass who is tired of being crucified. Go for it or come close. Or else. Moore gets unfairly targeted for this mess given the total lack of resources ownership has offered him til all of the sudden NOW. Add Hochevar Holland Crow Paulino a couple I am forgetting and this should be a decent staff. The gamble is will these young hitters with immense potential but very spotty so far gel and take off?

mdccclxix
12-10-2012, 11:52 AM
As horrid as their rotation was in 2012, they only allowed 746 runs, but only scored 676. I guess counting on Hosmer and Moustakas to tick way up is what they'll do. Meanwhile, they obviously hope to reduce the runs scored by at least 100.

2 years ago they didn't need Greinke and sold a bit low on him with 2 years remaining. They got their CF & SS out of it. Then sold the best arm in the deal to get Shields.

2 years of Greinke (plus Bentancourt) = Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi

2 years of Shields = Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, Patrick Leonard

I think Myers is a better prospect than Escobar, whose value was still very high as well, but Myers is looking great. Odorizzi cancels out in these trades. Is Montgomery's arm trouble equivalent to Jeffress' drug problems? I'd say Montgomery is still a better bet. Then Cain is/was a better get than the young 3b, as he's more ready to help in the majors. So, by my measure:

Myers > Escobar
Odorizzi = Odorizzi
Montgomery > Jeffress
Cain > Leonard


edit: oops, I've left Wade out of all this. Perhaps this evens things out then? Shields may not have Cy Young potential like Greinke had, but he's certainly got ace like qualities like consistency, innings, K's, etc.

mdccclxix
12-10-2012, 11:59 AM
TC you're ignoring the fact they didn't touch their best pitching prospects which were NOT Odo and Montgomery or that they still have a top ten farm just similar to the Reds the best guys are now AA and lower. Lots to like on their farm and they have primo draft position this year again. They hardly sold their tomorrow for today. Is it a reach? Heck yes...but fans are furious here...I think Moore had mmarching orders from Glass who is tired of being crucified. Go for it or come close. Or else. Moore gets unfairly targeted for this mess given the total lack of resources ownership has offered him til all of the sudden NOW. Add Hochevar Holland Crow Paulino a couple I am forgetting and this should be a decent staff. The gamble is will these young hitters with immense potential but very spotty so far gel and take off?

I guess a lot can be said for keeping teams in the game to score late, just like the Reds have been able to do. I would hope they get some success from Hochevar in the pen, as his stuff should play up in that role.

Degenerate39
12-10-2012, 11:59 AM
What a horrible trade for KC

mdccclxix
12-10-2012, 12:00 PM
My main worry is that they couldn't do anything with an ace when they had Greinke, now they have another and what could it really do?

CySeymour
12-10-2012, 12:03 PM
The feeling is the KC ownership gave Moore a win this year or you're gone directive. If so, teams are better off changing management now. When anyone is in desperation mode, they tend to make hasty decisions.

mdccclxix
12-10-2012, 12:14 PM
I want to like that KC lineup and rotation, but I think, like everyone, I will just have to wait and see before judging. The games will be played.

mdccclxix
12-10-2012, 12:15 PM
The 5th wildcard and teams like the A's and O's can give teams like KC a chance and some real hope. Not to mention that money tree that's growing somewhere.

RedlegJake
12-10-2012, 12:18 PM
The feeling is the KC ownership gave Moore a when this year or you're gone directive. If so, teams are better off changing management now. When anyone is in desperation mode, they tend to make hasty decisions.

Cy..I think you're right and like it was here its not mgmnt that needs to go asmuch as ownership. Glass is a "civic duty" owner, not a fan in his own right, a younger Lindner type.
As for Greinke...apples to oranges...he never had the talent approaching this teams overall ability. Then they were older and not yet bringing on these kids. Those teams were full of tired old vets and average or worse youngsters(aka Gathright et al)

REDREAD
12-10-2012, 12:23 PM
Ton of innings lately for Shields. Also making a pile o' cash. That isn't worth six years of a cost controlled player with the projected profile of Myers.

Ok, but the Reds gave up four players with 6 years of control for Latos.
Granted Latos is younger, but he was somewhat more of a risk at the time.

Shields is pretty darn close to a sure thing (about as close as you're going to get).

Davis is a nice player too. Look at what some other teams have been giving up to get solid relievers. Denver just traded White (highly regarded starting pitching prospect). Reds gave up what some thought were 3 great prospects for Marshall. Red Sox gave up Lowrie for a reliever, etc, etc.

Honestly, I don't think Shields' salary matters. The Royals have been sandbagging payroll for a long time (like Lindner did). They can pay him.

The Royals have been "waiting for prospects" for about 20 years or so (maybe longer??) I don't know.. they've been irrelevant so long, I've lost track.
If I was a Royals fan, I'd be thrilled they are at least adding talent instead of dumping it to save a few dollars. Maybe they don't win the division, but they will certainly be more pleasant to watch for the next two years.

Benihana
12-10-2012, 12:37 PM
The Royals have been "waiting for prospects" for about 20 years or so (maybe longer??) I don't know.. they've been irrelevant so long, I've lost track.
If I was a Royals fan, I'd be thrilled they are at least adding talent instead of dumping it to save a few dollars. Maybe they don't win the division, but they will certainly be more pleasant to watch for the next two years.

This got me thinking, who knows- maybe this will be the Rolen trade for KC?

A struggling franchise that most don't think is poised to contend finally does an about-face and deals a couple prospects for a proven veteran with only a year or two left on their contract...

Granted, Zach Stewart was no Wil Myers, but James Shields >> Scott Rolen.

Tom Servo
12-10-2012, 12:59 PM
I think KC overpaid, but as M2 pointed out, the majority of recent KC prospects seem to go bust so it could end up being a moot point. Shields will help their rotation a lot.

REDREAD
12-10-2012, 01:02 PM
This got me thinking, who knows- maybe this will be the Rolen trade for KC?

A struggling franchise that most don't think is poised to contend finally does an about-face and deals a couple prospects for a proven veteran with only a year or two left on their contract...

Granted, Zach Stewart was no Wil Myers, but James Shields >> Scott Rolen.

Yep. That's my thinking too.
I'd rather my club try to do something to compete (especially after many years of not trying).
Maybe Myers becomes the next GStanton. Maybe he becomes the next Delmon Young (or worse). Who knows?
I'm not saying all of KC's recent moves are good, but it's hard for me to call this move stupid.
Worse case, it doesn't work out.. then the Royals are no worse off than they've been in previous years..

M2
12-10-2012, 01:02 PM
I'm always confused by the criticism that a guy has logged a lot of innings. I get the concern if he logged a lot of innings at a young age, but in your late 20s and early 30s is exactly when you want a pitcher racking up the innings totals. Pitchers who can do that year after year are incredibly valuable, and Shields has proven himself to be one of those guys.

The Royals don't want a pitcher who can maybe lead a staff, they want a pitcher who has proven he can lead a staff. And when did 31 become old for a SP? On top of that, Davis was a mangler in the bullpen. Wouldn't shock me if he's closing in KC next year (or acting as the primary setup man in front of Greg Holland).

And the plaudits being thrown at Odorizzi and Montgomery aren't warranted. BA just projected Odorizzi as KC's #5 starter in 2016. That's not exactly a big loss. John Sickels says he's got a #3 pitcher ceiling, but didn't include the kid in his midseason top 120 prospects list. No one's particularly convinced he's got a successful major league future in front of him. And Montgomery was on the verge of washing out with the Royals. I'd shed no tears over losing them if I were a Royals fan.

RedsManRick
12-10-2012, 01:14 PM
I'm always confused by the criticism that a guy has logged a lot of innings. I get the concern if he logged a lot of innings at a young age, but in your late 20s and early 30s is exactly when you want a pitcher racking up the innings totals. Pitchers who can do that year after year are incredibly valuable, and Shields has proven himself to be one of those guys.

The Royals don't want a pitcher who can maybe lead a staff, they want a pitcher who has proven he can lead a staff. And when did 31 become old for a SP? On top of that, Davis was a mangler in the bullpen. Wouldn't shock me if he's closing in KC next year (or acting as the primary setup man in front of Greg Holland).

And the plaudits being thrown at Odorizzi and Montgomery aren't warranted. BA just projected Odorizzi as KC's #5 starter in 2016. That's not exactly a big loss. John Sickels says he's got a #3 pitcher ceiling, but didn't include the kid in his midseason top 120 prospects list. No one's particularly convinced he's got a successful major league future in front of him. And Montgomery was on the verge of washing out with the Royals. I'd shed no tears over losing them if I were a Royals fan.

Agreed, with SP, durability is extremely underrated. Yes, Brett Anderson is a "better" pitcher, but innings not pitched are essentially innings getting pitched by a replacement level guy, because they cascade down the staff. Here are the top 15 SP in innings pitched since 2009:



Rank Name IP ERA FIP xFIP WAR
1 Felix Hernandez 954.0 2.81 3.03 3.22 24.2
2 Justin Verlande 953.2 2.95 2.93 3.28 28.6
3 CC Sabathia 905.0 3.22 3.28 3.41 23.4
4 James Shields 900.0 3.85 3.76 3.46 14.8
5 Cliff Lee 887.2 2.98 2.86 3.11 25.3
6 Matt Cain 882.0 2.93 3.46 3.94 15.6
7 Roy Halladay 879.2 2.87 2.93 2.97 24.5
8 Dan Haren 879.1 3.59 3.50 3.42 18.3
9 Jered Weaver 859.2 2.98 3.49 3.91 17.8
10 Tim Lincecum 840.2 3.38 3.16 3.25 18.2
11 Bronson Arroyo 837.0 4.12 4.79 4.41 4.5
12 Clayton Kershaw 836.1 2.6 2.87 3.36 20.8
13 Cole Hamels 833.2 3.28 3.43 3.28 16.6
14 Zack Greinke 833.1 3.37 2.93 3.15 23.5
15 Mark Buehrle 831.1 3.86 4.13 4.30 12.9

Yes, Shields isn't on the level of King Felix, Sabathia, Verlander, Lee and Halladay. But Cain, Weaver and Hamels isn't bad company.

Scrap Irony
12-10-2012, 01:25 PM
KC batting order

Cain CF
Gordon LF
Butler DH
Moustakas 3B
Perez C
Hosmer 1B
Francouer RF
Escobar SS
Getz/ Gavotela 2B

Rotation
Shields
Santana
Guthrie
Chen
Mendoza

Bullpen
Holland
Davis
Crow
Hochevar
Herrera
Collins
Bueno

The big question is if the young corner guys (Hosmer and Moustakas) can rebound (or is it bound?) into the solid hitters they were profiled as in the minors. If so, the Royals have five innings eaters who'll give you a league average or better rotation. That has some serious value, especially in front of a re-tooled (and excellent) bullpen.

The starting staff is good.

How about the hitters?

Johnny Footstool
12-10-2012, 01:48 PM
It seems like the deal went through pretty quickly. If TB was really as desperate to dump cash as they claim to be, Moore should have played the waiting game and held out for David Price.

Tom Servo
12-10-2012, 01:59 PM
Rotation

Shields
Santana
Guthrie
Chen
Mendoza




The starting staff is good.


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JyrP12VxMz4/UCN4grQiOQI/AAAAAAAAOGU/okXpmOeTnMI/s320/OLYMPIC+FUNNY+57.jpg

M2
12-10-2012, 02:02 PM
One other thing to consider is that Shields has been the Rays poster boy for how to be a major league pitcher. Supposedly his preparation and work ethic are as good as anyone in baseball. It's not a coincidence that the Rays have had such success breaking in young pitchers into the majors during Shields' years in that rotation.

KC needs that. Shields is going to be their role model, kind of Scott Rolen was for the Reds' position players a few years back (and how Joey Votto will be moving forward). Suddenly KC doesn't need to tell convince young pitchers about what they need to do in theory to be a quality major leaguer, it can just point to Shields and say, "See? That's how you do it."

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 03:26 PM
Third, the only reason I can think of why the change in course is this... Dayton Moore had to have been put on notice. "You win this year or you're gone" Why would you spend all this time crafting your player development plan and then just throw it away??


This seems to be what a lot of folks are thinking....

Being a GM is rough. You are given the job to build a winner. To build that winner in certain places, you need to build through drafting and developing. That takes years and years. Your boss wants you to win now, while also building for the future. Sometimes, that isn't exactly possible. It will be interesting to see what the next moves are for the Royals.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 03:31 PM
And the plaudits being thrown at Odorizzi and Montgomery aren't warranted. BA just projected Odorizzi as KC's #5 starter in 2016. That's not exactly a big loss. John Sickels says he's got a #3 pitcher ceiling, but didn't include the kid in his midseason top 120 prospects list. No one's particularly convinced he's got a successful major league future in front of him. And Montgomery was on the verge of washing out with the Royals. I'd shed no tears over losing them if I were a Royals fan.

I see Odorizzi as a potential slight upgrade to what Mike Leake is/can be. Stuff is pretty much average across the board. Has some control. Nothing special.

Montgomery is a wild card. Big time arm. Or boring arm. It truly depends on what day you see him. He has mechanical problems that has his velocity anywhere from 88-91 one day to 93-97 another day. Control is an issue too, but that is also related to his mechanics. If you can fix those mechanics, you have a real asset with him.

But yeah, I am not sure either is a true loss.

The reason I don't like the deal is the amount of money they took on and had to give up arguably the best hitting prospect in the game (I am not even sure it is arguable, some guys are better position player prospects because of their position/defense, but pure hitting wise I don't know that anyone else is on par with him).

Scrap Irony
12-10-2012, 03:35 PM
Three year rolling average of four veteran KC starters the past three years:
Chen-- 97 (101, 108, 81)
Guthrie--100 (108, 97, 94)
Santana-- 95 (102, 111, 73)
Shields-- 106 (75, 134, 108)

Add Medoza (a 97 ERA+ last season in his first as a starter) plus depth like Danny Duffy and prospects that are likely to improve, and you've got a staff that should do fairly well.

Team Clark
12-10-2012, 03:55 PM
TC you're ignoring the fact they didn't touch their best pitching prospects which were NOT Odo and Montgomery or that they still have a top ten farm just similar to the Reds the best guys are now AA and lower. Lots to like on their farm and they have primo draft position this year again. They hardly sold their tomorrow for today. Is it a reach? Heck yes...but fans are furious here...I think Moore had mmarching orders from Glass who is tired of being crucified. Go for it or come close. Or else. Moore gets unfairly targeted for this mess given the total lack of resources ownership has offered him til all of the sudden NOW. Add Hochevar Holland Crow Paulino a couple I am forgetting and this should be a decent staff. The gamble is will these young hitters with immense potential but very spotty so far gel and take off?

I'm not ignoring that. I recognize it and I should have taken more time to make that point. You are very correct in that assessment. I don't think they sold tomorrow for today, however, I don't think in this deal it was necessary to deal Myers. Easy for me to say since I wasn't there! LOL

KC has a very nice stable of players. I just would have liked them to see it through. I'm personally convinced that Dayton Moore is under great pressure to win NOW or else.

Great job by Friedman leveraging Texas to get this done. He knows he needs to shed payroll and flipped the script to get a haul.

M2
12-10-2012, 04:01 PM
The reason I don't like the deal is the amount of money they took on and had to give up arguably the best hitting prospect in the game (I am not even sure it is arguable, some guys are better position player prospects because of their position/defense, but pure hitting wise I don't know that anyone else is on par with him).

Tavares is at that level in terms of hitting, but you're right that it's not a long list. Still, it took Alex Gordon a long time to go from where Myers is to where Gordon's at today (and he's still not a superstar-level player).

As for the money, KC has been hoarding cash for so long that I don't think the spending matters. Glass has luxury tax and league revenues filling his coffers and he's still got a fairly low payroll. In fact thanks to the trade the Royals finally have something that can be considered a major league payroll. Whether it nets them something that can be considered a major league team is an open question. Still, I think Shields and Davis push them in the right direction.

Scrap Irony
12-10-2012, 04:55 PM
KC might still get into the free agent bin as well.

They're not done yet, but what they have now is better than what they had, IMO.

Whether that's enough to make the playoffs is the question.

Strikes Out Looking
12-10-2012, 05:35 PM
It seems like the deal went through pretty quickly. If TB was really as desperate to dump cash as they claim to be, Moore should have played the waiting game and held out for David Price.

According to Andrew Friedman (Rays GM) they had been discussing it off and on since October.

Patrick Bateman
12-10-2012, 05:39 PM
Thinking about this trade for longer, I feel the points raised in this thread make for a strong narrative as to the reasons why the Royals did this now, and the ways that this could help, perhaps even beyond face value. Also, I didn't consider the Davis factor much... I mean, still with youth on his side, his strong results in relief really could also be a sign of a pitching advancement than just a role change. If the scouts see something they like with him, the option years on that contract could turn into the most valuable thing in that trade. He certainly would not be the first talented pitcher that took some time to become a rotation force, heck he wouldn't even be the first guy involved in this trade that fits that description.

At the same time, the Reds didn't give up the top hitting prospect in baseball for Rolen. They essentially gave up some stuff that seemed overhyped at the time, and in hindsight, the players looked even worse. Time might very well tell the same for the package the Rays received, especially Montgomery, and Leonard, but, I think a team like the Royals needs to take the chance on the Myers' of the world, because for a smaller market team, guys like that gives a team the best chance to be a sustainable force.

Perhaps becoming sustainable is a few zipcodes out of the dictionary for the Royals considering they still need to make a few steps just to become relevant again, but man, if Myers is that good, this is going to hurt 10 times worse than the success they could get out of it on the other side of the coin. Also, the timing of this could be woldly inappropriate. Two years from now if Hosmer/Moustakas and co. establish themselves as being able to turn the Royals into big time contenders, maybe trading the high end prospects to get the cherry on top makes more sense. Or maybe with their system they can do both? It certainly would seem much more palatable right now if Francouer was actually a 'thing' rather than being a replacement level part. This certainly wasn't quite the same "trading from a positional surplus" that the Reds did in the Latos deal. The timing of the Latos trade, and the parts we gave up certainly seemed to fit perfectly with the rest of the puzzle that Jocketty had put together.

I can't argue much with what the Rolen comparison did for the Reds. If Shields is able to do the same for the Royals, then they are not going to regret this one. But I feel like there must have been a cheaper price to pay for that effect without removing one of their best chips that also fit their roster well (but at the same time, I can't think off the top of my head another available piece that could have performed that role so well).

Johnny Footstool
12-10-2012, 06:06 PM
According to Andrew Friedman (Rays GM) they had been discussing it off and on since October.

Fair enough. We really only started hearing about Myers being shopped a couple of weeks ago, but I'm sure there were a lot of discussions prior to that.

klw
12-10-2012, 06:08 PM
I like the move by the Royals. It is risky but getting Davis and shields should be a huge boost to the team and help set it on the right path. Just because there are free agent pitchers out there doesn't mean they can get them without Gil Meche type deals.

Here is another reason:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood--002ric

Myers success in AAA this year does not mean it will translate going forward.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 06:14 PM
Brandon Wood had plate discipline problems until he was in his second year of AAA. Wil Myers has no such problem, nor has he ever shown it. Poor reason for a comparison.

powersackers
12-10-2012, 08:16 PM
Did I stumble in Royals Zone by accident? Damn smartphone.

dougdirt
12-10-2012, 08:42 PM
Did I stumble in Royals Zone by accident? Damn smartphone.

Predictive text will get you every time....

Blitz Dorsey
12-11-2012, 12:34 AM
Keith Law thinks it's an obvious win for the Rays.

So, the Royals have that going for them. Law thinks anytime veterans are traded for prospects that the team who got the prospects was the winner. Check Law's comments on the Latos trade. Hey Keith, that's called "being wrong" bud. He made it seem like the Pads fleeced the Reds. Haha. Try again.

dougdirt
12-11-2012, 01:50 AM
Keith Law thinks it's an obvious win for the Rays.

So, the Royals have that going for them. Law thinks anytime veterans are traded for prospects that the team who got the prospects was the winner. Check Law's comments on the Latos trade. Hey Keith, that's called "being wrong" bud. He made it seem like the Pads fleeced the Reds. Haha. Try again.

Far to early to call that a win for the Reds.

I loved the trade the day that it happened. I still love it. But I could see where the Reds "lose" that trade in the long run. The Padres have two of their starting 8 out of the deal and control them for the next 5 years, a #4 starter with Volquez and a bullpen arm with upside who has already given good returns in the Majors, though with questions on how long it can last without better control.

lollipopcurve
12-11-2012, 07:06 AM
Far to early to call that a win for the Reds.

One postseason appearance in the books. The Reds are off to a good start with Latos in the rotation.

_Sir_Charles_
12-11-2012, 10:44 AM
Far to early to call that a win for the Reds.

I loved the trade the day that it happened. I still love it. But I could see where the Reds "lose" that trade in the long run. The Padres have two of their starting 8 out of the deal and control them for the next 5 years, a #4 starter with Volquez and a bullpen arm with upside who has already given good returns in the Majors, though with questions on how long it can last without better control.

Disagree 100%. 2 of the 4 pieces were blocked on the Reds and therefore had no place to play. That's beyond expendable in my book. Sure, they had value...but they had FAR more value to another team.

In my opinion, that trade was a win for both teams. We lost very little that we needed and got a huge chip. They lost that huge chip but got a bunch of valuable pieces that they needed. Win-win.

Blitz Dorsey
12-11-2012, 11:28 AM
Far to early to call that a win for the Reds.

I loved the trade the day that it happened. I still love it. But I could see where the Reds "lose" that trade in the long run. The Padres have two of their starting 8 out of the deal and control them for the next 5 years, a #4 starter with Volquez and a bullpen arm with upside who has already given good returns in the Majors, though with questions on how long it can last without better control.

I agree we won't know for a few years the final verdict on the Latos trade. But I think we can all agree right now that Keith Law behaving as if the Reds got taken to the cleaners in that deal was way off. Maybe the Reds end up winning the trade, maybe not. But in no way was it some home run of a deal for the Padres. Right now, the trade looks like a win for the Reds, especially with Yasmani's affection for the juice. Volquez was done in Cincinnati. He was the definition of a "throw-in." I didn't like losing Boxberger, but a right-handed middle reliever? The Reds got an even better one by trading Juan Francisco for JJ Hoover. The point is right-handed middle relievers or even set-up guys aren't extremely hard to find. They don't grow on trees, which is why I didn't like giving up Boxberger, but you have to give something to get something. Yonder Alonso was never going to play in Cincinnati due to Votto and his lack of HR power is alarming for a first baseman. He can rake some doubles though and part of the reason his HR numbers were so dreadful in 2012 was because of Petco, of course. I think the Reds always viewed Alonso as a trading chip in the back of their minds and they used said trading chip well.

Overall, the Latos trade looks like a big win for the Reds. We won't know for a few years for sure though. But Law looks clueless for pretending as if the Padres completely ripped off the Reds. I'm not going to link any of his stories -- most of them are Insider anyway. But I remember him ripping the Reds for the trade. Like I said, the next time Keith Law thinks a team trading prospects away wins a trade will be the first. He overvalues prospects in trades. Getting established Major League pitchers like Mat Latos and James Shields is very difficult, especially for small-market teams. I have Wil Myers in my fantasy keeper league and he's no sure thing by any means. He was great in 2012, but was pretty average in 2011 for big-time prospect standards. Many chalked that up to him moving from catcher to the OF, but the point is that it's not like Wil Myers raked every year he was in the minors. And he never showed this much power in previous years. I think it might be one of those trades that ends up being good for both sides. But I had to laugh at Keith Law predictably crowning the Rays as the winner of the deal.

klw
12-11-2012, 11:28 AM
I think the Latos trade will likely play out as a win both sides. The Padres got multiple players with upside and the Reds got a TOR pitcher. This fit both of their needs nicely.

mdccclxix
12-11-2012, 11:31 AM
I can't think of another ace that was traded with 4 years of team control left like Latos had. Any overpay likely had a lot to do with that. Latos made beans last year.

RedEye
12-11-2012, 11:33 AM
Yeah, I think the Latos trade was pretty unprecedented in recent years in terms of getting a TOR arm that was already established at that level for such a long span of time.

Blitz Dorsey
12-11-2012, 11:37 AM
Yeah, the financial aspect also makes the Latos trade look really good for the Reds, no question. That's another thing that was overlooked by Law and others that ripped the trade. The Padres did get three young players they can keep on the cheap for several years, but those guys aren't established Major League starting pitchers.

Handofdeath
12-11-2012, 01:42 PM
Wade Davis is going to the Royals to start make no mistake about it. The most similar player to him, according to baseball-reference.com, is Mike Leake. That's what he's going to be on the Royals, a #4/5 starter. And there are those out there who say he could get better. The Royals during this offseason took their most glaring weakness and made it into their strength. James Shields, Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, Wade Davis, and Bruce Chen/Luis Mendoza, that rotation can compete in the AL Central. And Shields, instead of pitching in the tough AL East, is moving to the AL Central where the Royals just finished 3rd with a staff that featured Luke Hochevar as their #2 starter. 2 proven Major League pitchers, one damn near elite at times, for players with much potential but little to no experience at the big league level. Good trade for both teams.

camisadelgolf
12-11-2012, 03:00 PM
Trades are supposed to help both teams. I wish ESPN, etc. would stop trying to convince the public that it's about who took whom to the cleaners. Some of you know this already, but believe it or not, it's possible for both teams to win the same trade.

bucksfan2
12-11-2012, 03:25 PM
Trades are supposed to help both teams. I wish ESPN, etc. would stop trying to convince the public that it's about who took whom to the cleaners. Some of you know this already, but believe it or not, it's possible for both teams to win the same trade.

The problem is when you get guys like Keith Law who are so black and white, cut and dry, you either won the trade or got annihilated and the GM should be fired. The problem is Law leans so far to one side of the spectrum that it clouds his judgement.

M2
12-11-2012, 03:45 PM
Trades are supposed to help both teams. I wish ESPN, etc. would stop trying to convince the public that it's about who took whom to the cleaners. Some of you know this already, but believe it or not, it's possible for both teams to win the same trade.

Excellent point.

REDREAD
12-12-2012, 11:02 AM
Far to early to call that a win for the Reds.
(Latos trade)
.

IMO, the Reds have won their side of the Latos trade.
It's still possible for the trade to be win-win though.