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View Full Version : Mike Leake's role in 2013



Will M
12-11-2012, 10:35 PM
I looked at the eight playoff teams last year & noted how many starts were made by the #6 or lower starters.
2 Giants
1 Reds
20 Cards
12 Nats
24 Yankees
57! Os
22 Tigers
45! As

I am quite happy Walt added a guy like Choo without giving up Leake. I know lots of folks here are not as high on him as I am but based on a stat like xFIP he rates as an average/above average pitcher. Nice guy to have as the first guy up when a starter goes down. Plus we don't know exactly how the team is going to use Chapman. I'd expect him to start or finish the year in the pen.

How would you handle the staff next year? I think I'd start Chapman in the rotation with a plan to move him to the pen after a certain innings limit is reached. That way he can build up his arm but also be available come playoff time.

_Sir_Charles_
12-11-2012, 10:38 PM
I fully expect to see Leake begin the season in AAA. And if the plan for Chapman is what we kind of expect it to be, I think we'll see Leake come up and down multiple times all season long to fill in the holes when Aroldis is keeping his innings down. Plus it keeps Leake on a starters schedule. And if for some reason they DO decide to trade Mike, his value is as a starter...not a long reliever.

But IMO he's the natural heir-apparent to Bronson Arroyo who I think leaves after this season. However, if WJ is able to extend Bronson at a reasonable rate...Leake becomes a trade chip.

WVRedsFan
12-11-2012, 10:43 PM
I'm not sure what the plan is for Mike. I'm still not convinced Chapman will start. I think Broxton sets up--the new Massett. It's all up in the air IMHO.

kbrake
12-11-2012, 10:48 PM
If Chapman is truly going to the rotation why not use Leake as the #5 starter until June and then let Chapman take over. Start his spring later and give him a few starts in the minors then bring him up June 1. Keep his innings down heading towards October.

dougdirt
12-11-2012, 10:59 PM
If Chapman is truly going to the rotation why not use Leake as the #5 starter until June and then let Chapman take over. Start his spring later and give him a few starts in the minors then bring him up June 1. Keep his innings down heading towards October.

Walt Jocketty mentioned that they have looked into using Chapman the way that the Braves used Medlen in 2012, which is similar to this plan.

The Voice of IH
12-11-2012, 11:09 PM
If Chapman is truly going to the rotation why not use Leake as the #5 starter until June and then let Chapman take over. Start his spring later and give him a few starts in the minors then bring him up June 1. Keep his innings down heading towards October.

I was going to say that Leake should be a long man with spot starts for Chapman throughout the year. But if the Reds decided to keep Chapman down until June I could live with that also.

VR
12-11-2012, 11:33 PM
Insurance policy, well worth it

Wonderful Monds
12-12-2012, 03:07 AM
First pinch hitter off the bench


He will also be assigned all the spare "OWINGS" jerseys left over from a few seasons ago.

DGullett35
12-12-2012, 04:06 AM
Insurance policy, well worth it

We will have to cash on that insurance policy at some point. I just dont see all 5 guys making every start as they did last year. I hope they do but history says it wont happen

kaldaniels
12-12-2012, 08:54 AM
The historical numbers don't lie. I'd wager you can count on 15-20 starts from your 6th starter. And if Leake is anything worth keeping (not wanting this discussion here) you ride out this season, and let him take Arroyo's spot in 2014.

Now this year does bring the possibility of Leake being "jerked around" (the big leagues, AAA, starting, long relief, etc...). Hopefully he can look the other way for the year, especially since he is the guy who went straight to the big leagues.

Leake does not need to be shopped.

kaldaniels
12-12-2012, 08:56 AM
nm

hebroncougar
12-12-2012, 11:30 AM
I fully expect Chapman back in the closer's role after the attention the 2013 season received in the Choo trade. 2013 is not a year to experiment when it's the one and only year you've got Choo.

M2
12-12-2012, 11:34 AM
The Reds could work Leake and Chapman as a tandem. Take every other start and then work long relief in between. Or Leake could start in the rotation with Chapman working long relief in the bullpen. If Chapman successfully stretches himself out during the first half of the season then he could step into a rotation slot in the second half (when one might open for health reasons).

One thing about Leake, he'll be highly motivated in 2013. He's going to have to fight for his job every time he takes the mound.

Benihana
12-12-2012, 11:38 AM
If Chapman is truly going to the rotation why not use Leake as the #5 starter until June and then let Chapman take over. Start his spring later and give him a few starts in the minors then bring him up June 1. Keep his innings down heading towards October.

:thumbup:

Then by late July, Reds will know if Chapman can really handle it or not. Then they can trade Leake at the deadline or use him in long relief down the stretch.

M2
12-12-2012, 12:07 PM
:thumbup:

Then by late July, Reds will know if Chapman can really handle it or not. Then they can trade Leake at the deadline or use him in long relief down the stretch.

I like the long relief option. Arroyo may not be around after 2013, so Leake fits pretty well into the long-term picture.

mace
12-12-2012, 02:43 PM
The Reds could work Leake and Chapman as a tandem. Take every other start and then work long relief in between. Or Leake could start in the rotation with Chapman working long relief in the bullpen. If Chapman successfully stretches himself out during the first half of the season then he could step into a rotation slot in the second half (when one might open for health reasons).



I was thinking about a variation of this. Put Chapman in the rotation so that he gets accustomed to the schedule and preparation, etc., but severely limit his innings/pitches early on. He'd be going three or four innings and Leake would be his semi-automatic reliever. You could say that a bullpen spot is eaten up that way, but if Leake were able to take the game into the eighth or ninth--which he certainly should be--he would also spare a lot of bullpen innings. I do like the idea of Chapman throwing 100 mph twice through the batting order, then Leake following with his Arroyo-like assortment.

vaticanplum
12-12-2012, 03:00 PM
I was thinking about a variation of this. Put Chapman in the rotation so that he gets accustomed to the schedule and preparation, etc., but severely limit his innings/pitches early on. He'd be going three or four innings and Leake would be his semi-automatic reliever. You could say that a bullpen spot is eaten up that way, but if Leake were able to take the game into the eighth or ninth--which he certainly should be--he would also spare a lot of bullpen innings. I do like the idea of Chapman throwing 100 mph twice through the batting order, then Leake following with his Arroyo-like assortment.

I mean this to be as nice as possible: I don't trust Dusty Baker with that much strategy.

Though I do hope we find some way to incorporate the phrase "semi-automatic reliever".

mattfeet
12-13-2012, 04:17 PM
I didn't want to start a second thread for this question, but I'm hoping someone here can help me. My question is, how much does Mike Leake's offensive abilities add to his value as a pitcher? I can check baseball-reference all I want, but I'm having trouble deciphering some of the more advanced metrics. We all know that Leake is very impressive in the batter's box, especially for a pitcher. While he pitcher to a 4.58ERA, how does his offensive output help deflect the nature of his higher ERA? Is it worth keeping a pitcher with those pitching stats in exchange for effectively adding a 9th hitter to the lineup every 5 days?

CesarGeronimo
12-13-2012, 07:20 PM
I believe that Mike Leake will be the No.5 starter and Aroldis Chapman will be the closer in 2013.

I think that's what Dusty always sounds like he wants and as soon as there is any kind of snag in the Chapman to starter plan - a bad outing or two by Chapman, a tired or sore Chapman arm, struggles by Broxton as closer, injury or struggles by other relievers, strong Leake performances, daily horoscope pointing to Chapman needing to bring positive benefits to coworkers more frequently, etc. - Chapman will be back in the closer's role.