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View Full Version : Over-under for 2013?



RedsBrick
12-13-2012, 09:35 AM
It gets me every time when I see reports about the Astros shopping for a DH. Keep forgetting they're heading to the AL.

With that thought in mind (and those almost guaranteed victories), do you think the 2013 Reds meet, exceed or fall short of the win total from 2012?

texasdave
12-13-2012, 09:42 AM
I have them at 95 wins. So just shy of last year's total. Although I think they will be a better team. I am not going to use the "L" word with respect to their 2012 victory total. But I believe it was the case.

Alpha Zero
12-13-2012, 10:19 AM
I think 95 wins is probably a good number. The offense is much improved, but the pitching will likely take a bit of a hit since the staff likely won't remain completely healthy for the entire year again.

Bob Sheed
12-13-2012, 01:11 PM
Chapman is the big variable.

If he excels in his new role as a starter, 95 wins seems attainable.

If he struggles, it could cost the Reds the playoffs.

nheath22
12-13-2012, 01:39 PM
I think 95 wins is probably a good number. The offense is much improved, but the pitching will likely take a bit of a hit since the staff likely won't remain completely healthy for the entire year again.

Regardless of health issues which are likely to occur at some point, I think our pitching will regress more because of Arroyo. While he has been a consistent force for us over the past several years, he is bound for some regression after the stellar season he put together in 2012. While I hope that I am wrong and he remains in the same form as last season, I would expect him to fall back towards his career average of around 4.3 ERA rather than the 3.7 he put together in 12', which probably loses a few more games for us.

We also have to expect Chapman to have some ups and downs during his first year as a starter. Even in a best case scenario, he will have some bad starts as any first year starter has. We should mainly be hoping he pulls it together towards the end of the season like Latos did last year to be a force in the playoffs.

Because of these two factors, I think our starters regress some in terms of the regular season which puts us in the 91 or 92 win range, and will hopefully be good enough to take another NL Central title. I think we will be a better team that last year, but our record probably won't show it right away.

texasdave
12-13-2012, 01:46 PM
I think we will be a better team that last year, but our record probably won't show it right away.

I hope I am wrong and this team tops the century mark. But I could not agree more strongly.

SweetLou1990
12-13-2012, 04:22 PM
Whats the lowest number that we cn expect and whats the highest number that we can expect? I think the expectations are in the 88 ~ 98 range, so I'm going with 93, but def want to see the 95 ~ 98 range.

coachpipe
12-13-2012, 04:27 PM
how does 162-0 sound? Cant be too far off

SweetLou1990
12-13-2012, 04:33 PM
how does 162-0 sound? Cant be too far off

OK - we can go with that!

Ironman92
12-13-2012, 05:17 PM
91-93

40YrRedsFan
12-13-2012, 05:37 PM
Reds will win 90 games, no more. With only 3 games against the Astros instead of 15 or 16, having to play teams like the Angels (now with Hamilton), Rangers, etc, we won't win as many as last year. If Ludwick can't match last year's production, we could still have troubles offensively with our team's tendency to strike out. Even with Choo in the lineup, we still have offensive question marks regarding Frazier, Hanigan, Cozart.

40YrRedsFan
12-13-2012, 05:45 PM
In addition to my previous post, April 2013 could be a very tough month unless we come out of the gate smoking. Angels for 3, Nationals for 7, Cardinals for 5, Phillies for 3, Pirates for 3. A very tough start to the season.

RedsBrick
12-13-2012, 08:05 PM
Reds will win 90 games, no more. With only 3 games against the Astros instead of 15 or 16, having to play teams like the Angels (now with Hamilton), Rangers, etc, we won't win as many as last year. If Ludwick can't match last year's production, we could still have troubles offensively with our team's tendency to strike out. Even with Choo in the lineup, we still have offensive question marks regarding Frazier, Hanigan, Cozart.

I think Frazier will be an unknown. I believe Hanigan will have a similar year to the one he had in 2012....with, hopefully, a little more pop.

I believe Cozart will have a better year in 2013. Hopefully being down the line-up will help him be a little more relaxed at the plate, feeling less pressure. Here's hoping he can improve his numbers even 10%, which would give him a slash of .271/.317/.756. If he can hover around his HR total of 15 - 20 and increase his RBI production to 50 - 60, I would call that a successful year. I think he's got it in him.

LexRedsFan
12-13-2012, 10:38 PM
Nationals for 7

Second straight year, no? I hate getting the season series out of the way SO early.

Spider Tre
12-13-2012, 10:57 PM
i'd say 92 or 93 wins

WDE
12-13-2012, 11:06 PM
Under. I doubt we have a 10 game winning streak to help us this year.

bigredmechanism
12-13-2012, 11:09 PM
I doubt they make it to 97 again. 97 is a lot of wins.

93-59

joshua
12-13-2012, 11:14 PM
87 wins. The end of the season last year was a cake walk schedule...and no way do we not have injuries to the rotation. Things could head south quick in 2013...hope it doesn't but I'll take a winning season .

HometownHero
12-13-2012, 11:18 PM
It gets me every time when I see reports about the Astros shopping for a DH. Keep forgetting they're heading to the AL.

With that thought in mind (and those almost guaranteed victories), do you think the 2013 Reds meet, exceed or fall short of the win total from 2012?


We will no doubt fall short since we will not get as many games with Houston next year and on top we end up playing the Cardinals who we lost 8 of 15 against last year for an extra series and that extra one would have been in St Louis this year. We will have 72 division games rather than 79 like last year so those 7 games could fall vs better teams.