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View Full Version : Is Adam Dunn a potential Hall of Fame candidate?



RedTruck
12-13-2012, 09:37 PM
He has 406 Home Runs right now..he's only 32.

He's averages around 40 on a good year (for him).

If he puts up a few more solid years he could definitely surpass 500 IMO..if not go farther.

Also he's one of the few players that can boast about about .204 batting average, yet still hit 40 HR, and 100 RBI's with a OBP in the 340's-350's.

I also imagine he's getting nearer to some K record as well.

What say you Adam Dunn an eventual hypothetical Hall of Fame candidate>?

JayBruceFan
12-13-2012, 09:51 PM
Can't believe he is only 32. Feels like he has been playing for 20 years. lol

RedsBrick
12-13-2012, 09:55 PM
I don't think so. Adam Dunn = Dave Kingman, to me.

HometownHero
12-13-2012, 10:23 PM
He's 33 now but he could have a shot thanks to the steroid era slowing down questionable stars from getting in. He's never been a muscled up guy so he may could get a pass if he can get up to 600 HR and keep drawing enough walks to get into the Top-10 All-time he could find a way in despite he low BA and what will be the all-time lead in whiffs.

webbbj
12-13-2012, 10:30 PM
LOL, NO.

LexRedsFan
12-13-2012, 10:35 PM
I can see him getting around 600 HR.

If he crosses that mark, I think he'll make it in. I can definitely see him being the type of guy who gets in in a weak year after "waiting his turn" for a while.

Salukifan2
12-13-2012, 11:01 PM
He will hit well 500 and probably 550 before he is done. He played more 3/4 his career after the steroid era. Since hitting 500 homers is not routine anymore i bet he makes it in. And if he hits 600 he will no question make it in.

WDE
12-13-2012, 11:03 PM
No. However, if he consistently keeps having this big HR numbers, he might get there.

joe51391
12-14-2012, 12:13 AM
Is Rob Deer?

mikemo14
12-14-2012, 12:27 AM
Hope he doesnt boast too much about that .204 batting average.

mikemo14
12-14-2012, 12:40 AM
This is a guy who may well set the all time record for most strikeouts, had arguably one of the most horrible seasons in the history of basebal (2011)l and became a horrible defensive player and he should be given consideration for the hall of fame? Not a prayer.

HometownHero
12-14-2012, 01:49 AM
This is a guy who may well set the all time record for most strikeouts, had arguably one of the most horrible seasons in the history of basebal (2011)l and became a horrible defensive player and he should be given consideration for the hall of fame? Not a prayer.

If he also gets into the Top-10 in HR and Walks he should no doubt get legit consideration. If he got the same total HR that Jim Thome has after his age 32 season he will be at 637 HR which is 6th All-time just 23 behind Mays and if he matched Jim's walks he would 1809 or 7th all-time.

On top of Top-10 in HR and BB he could be Top-50 in RBI, Top-60 in times on base, Top-100 in career runs scored and get over 2,000 hits as well. He has 6 years with 40 HR only one of 11 men to do so and has 8 years with 38 or more HR

When you think about it right now without looking into what he could do it sounds crazy but he just tuned 33 and a few more years like his normal years and few years as his age catches up with him he's going to be in some very rare territory among some of the all-time greats even with just a .240 career average.

If he play's until he's 40 he could have 8 more seasons.

The_Mudshark
12-14-2012, 09:10 AM
I just think if you are going to be in the HOF for a professional sport, you should be able to run.

nheath22
12-14-2012, 11:37 AM
If he also gets into the Top-10 in HR and Walks he should no doubt get legit consideration. If he got the same total HR that Jim Thome has after his age 32 season he will be at 637 HR which is 6th All-time just 23 behind Mays and if he matched Jim's walks he would 1809 or 7th all-time..

First off, those are some pretty big if's. You are expecting Dunn to stay around as a relevant player for another 8 years basically, continuing to hit 30 HRs or more. It just isn't realistic for a guy who consistently strikes out 200x a year and can't bat over .250.

Comparing Adam Dunn to Jim Thome is laughable. Thome will get into the Hall as a first ballot HOFer, and rightfully so, while Dunn will not. The similarities between Dunn and Thome are basically that they are big strong white guys who hit lots of home-runs. The comparison should end there.

Thome is a career .275 hitter, who averaged 30 less strike outs a year, has about .50 pts higher career OBP, Slugging, and OPS in comparison to Dunn. Thome has been able to stay around as a DH because even when the power faded in his 40's, he was still a quality on base guy, which is not the case with Dunn who will not find a place to hit when the power fades.

Thome was also much better in the field during most of his career. Fun fact is that Dunn has almost committed as many errors in 12 years as Thome has in 22 yrs (110 vs 137).

Numbers: Dunn (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml) vs Thome (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml)

Needless to say, Dunn does not belong in the HOF, and will not deserve it at the end of his career. A .240 hitter who strikes out 190x per year should not be considered, even if he gets to 600 HRs.

He is a fun player to watch for his home runs, but that is really the only part of his game worthy of the hall. Terrible fielder, not good at making contact, low batting average. His highest MVP voting in one year was 21st. A player who has never been one of the 20 best players in one given year shouldn't stand a chance when looking for elite dominant players worthy of the HOF.

dkamberi25
12-14-2012, 01:14 PM
Dunn was my favorite Red but I can't see him making the hall. He would have to do something insaine like get to 600 home runs to get considered.

Redlegs Homer
12-14-2012, 02:52 PM
Only if the Hall of Fame doesn't want to take itself seriously anymore.

My best Adam Dunn memory was when he called a guy in the stands a fatass. For that reason he is one of my favorite Reds ever, but not a Hall of Famer. Hall of Famers don't have seasons like he had in 2011.

bounty37h
12-14-2012, 03:00 PM
I think all retired players are technically candidates, but no, he is not HOF caliber.

HometownHero
12-15-2012, 02:43 AM
[QUOTE=nheath22;2788146]First off, those are some pretty big if's. You are expecting Dunn to stay around as a relevant player for another 8 years basically, continuing to hit 30 HRs or more. It just isn't realistic for a guy who consistently strikes out 200x a year and can't bat over .250.

Comparing Adam Dunn to Jim Thome is laughable..../QUOTE]

The whole concept of this thread is based off if's since it didn't say was he a HOF caliber player right now. But since he was 32 and has 406 HR and came off his 2nd best HR season of his career he has a legit shot at getting into the 600 range with a few more normal power years before he starts to get old.

The comparison with Dunn and Thome are on maintaining power and walks to into their late 30's reach the level to become Top-10 in each statistic and thus reach a level not many players have seen. Sorry you wasted so much time pointing out the obvious that Thome is a better hitter.

After their age 32 season
381 HR and 1108 walks for Thome
406 HR and 1170 Walks for Dunn

Even with his bad 11 HR year in 2011 Dunn is averaging 37 HR a year for the last 9 years in the other 8 he's at 40.4 bombs a year. He can homer at a historic clip and draws tons of walks if he gets into the Top-10 of both while getting into the 2000's in hits and becoming Top-50 in RBI, Top-60 in times on base, Top-100 in career runs scored he will get HOF consideration. Much like defensive players have a specialized tool his power and walk rate put him with 2 elite tools if he can keep putting up numbers for a while and play until around 40+ like so many other power hitters have.

MoneyInTheBank
12-15-2012, 09:00 AM
IMO, you are absolutely right Hero...

Dunn is not HOF material RIGHT NOW, but could absolutely get there

If, for 5 more years (ages 33-37 seasons), he can average 35 HR, 90 RBI and 90 BB, he would be in the top 15 ALL TIME in HR, top 60 ALL TIME in RBI, top 15 ALL TIME in BB. Do you know what kind of company that puts him in? Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Harmon Killebrew. If he were to average 80 runs scored a season, that would put him in the top 100 in that category and Harmon Killebrew would drop off that list. Those numbers put him in the discussion. Would he be deserving of induction? That's debatable, but it's not "laughable" either.

Do I think he will post the numbers I've listed above? No. I don't think he likes baseball enough to put in the work necessary to make himself age well. I think it's more likely he will have 2 or 3 more years at his current pace, fade badly in the 4th and 5th and ride off with no regrets.

redsfanmia
12-15-2012, 10:17 AM
Dunn is a 2-time all star and has never been in the even the top 20 in MVP voting. He is a terrible fielder and hits for a terrible average and inspite of all of his home runs is not a great RBI guy, Dunn will get votes for the Hall of Fame but will not be a serious candidate.

RedTruck
12-15-2012, 04:13 PM
IMO, you are absolutely right Hero...

Dunn is not HOF material RIGHT NOW, but could absolutely get there

If, for 5 more years (ages 33-37 seasons), he can average 35 HR, 90 RBI and 90 BB, he would be in the top 15 ALL TIME in HR, top 60 ALL TIME in RBI, top 15 ALL TIME in BB. Do you know what kind of company that puts him in? Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Harmon Killebrew. If he were to average 80 runs scored a season, that would put him in the top 100 in that category and Harmon Killebrew would drop off that list. Those numbers put him in the discussion. Would he be deserving of induction? That's debatable, but it's not "laughable" either.

Do I think he will post the numbers I've listed above? No. I don't think he likes baseball enough to put in the work necessary to make himself age well. I think it's more likely he will have 2 or 3 more years at his current pace, fade badly in the 4th and 5th and ride off with no regrets.

I feel alot of people are just bitter about Adam Dunn.

He's a 1 trick pony.

But he's really good at that one trick.

New York Red
12-15-2012, 05:30 PM
Rob Deer and Dave Kingman are both terrible comparisons. Deer hit only 230 career HRs and never had a single season with either 100 RBI or 100 BB.

Kingman hit a lot of HR, but had only two 100-RBI seasons and reached 60 BB in a season only once.

I would be shocked to ever see the Donkey in the HOF, but his credentials are far superior to either Deer or Kingman. It's not even close.

New York Red
12-15-2012, 05:32 PM
I feel alot of people are just bitter about Adam Dunn.

He's a 1 trick pony.

But he's really good at that one trick.
Two trick pony -- HR and BB.

40YrRedsFan
12-15-2012, 05:59 PM
Not a chance...Adam Dunn, Dave Kingman, Rob Deer, Soriano, Greg Vaughn, Graig Nettles,
the list could go on and on. Most of these guys were sub .250 hitters. These are NOT
HOF'ers

HometownHero
12-15-2012, 06:12 PM
Not a chance...Adam Dunn, Dave Kingman, Rob Deer, Soriano, Greg Vaughn, Graig Nettles,
the list could go on and on. Most of these guys were sub .250 hitters. These are NOT
HOF'ers

HR
442 Kingman
406 Dunn after age 32
390 Nettles
372 Soriano
355 Vaughn
230 Deer

BB
1170 Dunn after age 32
1088 Nettles
865 Vaughn
608 Kingman
575 Deer
454 Soriano

Nettles is the closest to Dunn of this group and falls short in HR and BB and he played until he was 43 years old, Dunn just turned 33 recently so think if Dunn hung in for 11 more years like he did.

HometownHero
12-15-2012, 06:19 PM
I feel alot of people are just bitter about Adam Dunn.

He's a 1 trick pony.

But he's really good at that one trick.

He's actually really good at two things with so many walks, at 32 he's already 63rd All-Time less than 500 from Top-10 and lead the majors with 105 last year despite the poor BA. Dunn walks more than Pujols has in almost a seasons worth of fewer games.

MoneyInTheBank
12-15-2012, 06:20 PM
Not a chance...Adam Dunn, Dave Kingman, Rob Deer, Soriano, Greg Vaughn, Graig Nettles,
the list could go on and on. Most of these guys were sub .250 hitters. These are NOT
HOF'ers

I don't think those are really fair comparisons. None of those guys have On-Base skills even close to Dunn and only one of them (Kingman) even has 400 HRs.

By no means would he be a slam dunk, even with 550 or 600 HRs but it would have to at least make you think

Ironman92
12-16-2012, 12:09 PM
I don't think so. Adam Dunn = Dave Kingman, to me.

If Dave Kingman would've taken a walk. Dunn blows him away in walks/OB%

40YrRedsFan
12-16-2012, 01:13 PM
What about Andruw Jones? Hit below .200 last year. Has over 400 HR's.
As for Dunn, if he keeps up his pace for strikeouts, he will pass Reggie Jackson for the most All Time before he is 36. I just don't think guys like Dunn, McGuire, Andruw Jones, etc, are not "all around" great players. Admittedly, I am stricter regarding a player's overall play being a requirement of HOF entrance. I had a lot of questions when Ozzie Smith was elected. Maybe I put too much emphasis on being like the superstars (Aaron, Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, etc. ) to get in.

Mutaman
12-16-2012, 04:09 PM
Did Adam finally play for a .500 team last year? That would be a first.

BlackPete Ibold
12-16-2012, 05:19 PM
Others have posted all the rationale needed, but sometimes I feel that 2 questions polls such as this one lack the required option of "Hell No".

redsfanmia
12-16-2012, 06:39 PM
Others have posted all the rationale needed, but sometimes I feel that 2 questions polls such as this one lack the required option of "Hell No".

Are you Marty?

MoneyInTheBank
12-16-2012, 06:54 PM
What about Andruw Jones? Hit below .200 last year. Has over 400 HR's.
As for Dunn, if he keeps up his pace for strikeouts, he will pass Reggie Jackson for the most All Time before he is 36. I just don't think guys like Dunn, McGuire, Andruw Jones, etc, are not "all around" great players. Admittedly, I am stricter regarding a player's overall play being a requirement of HOF entrance. I had a lot of questions when Ozzie Smith was elected. Maybe I put too much emphasis on being like the superstars (Aaron, Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, etc. ) to get in.

Again, if Dunn retired TODAY, not a chance he's a hall of famer. The point being, if he sticks around and ends up with 550-600 HRs and winds up top 15 in BB he's still not a lock by any means, but he at least deserves consideration.

Andruw Jones has a whole different thing going on. He appears to be done in MLB with 434 HRs. It's easy to forget now, but Jones was arguably the best defensive CFer in all of baseball at one point in his career. I don't think he's a hall of famer because he didn't keep in shape and was done as a full time player when he was 30.

webbbj
12-16-2012, 07:56 PM
Im of the opinion that the HOF should be reserved for great players. At no point in Dunns career would I consider him a great player. I think too many players get in the HOF as it is. A HOF should stick out so much that you know w/o thought if they are worthy.

MoneyInTheBank
12-16-2012, 08:05 PM
Im of the opinion that the HOF should be reserved for great players. At no point in Dunns career would I consider him a great player. I think too many players get in the HOF as it is. A HOF should stick out so much that you know w/o thought if they are worthy.

I agree that's how it SHOULD be. If the question were "if they did the Hall of Fame the right way would he be a candidate?" then the answer is no.

webbbj
12-16-2012, 10:05 PM
I think a better discussion would be if kenny lofton is a HOFer. Id say no but just considered it when I saw his name on the ballot. Much more deserving than Dunn, even if he gets 600 HRs.

Dunn has a WAR >2 only twice in his career. And twice w/ a negative WAR.

MoneyInTheBank
12-17-2012, 06:24 PM
I think a better discussion would be if kenny lofton is a HOFer. Id say no but just considered it when I saw his name on the ballot. Much more deserving than Dunn, even if he gets 600 HRs.

Dunn has a WAR >2 only twice in his career. And twice w/ a negative WAR.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but I totally disagree that Kenny Lofton is much more deserving than anyone with 600 HRs & 1600 BBs, even if that player has a .240 Career Average

Krawhitham
12-17-2012, 10:42 PM
DH's have a hard enough time getting in the HOF and this one is a wind factory with a .240 AVG



Black Ink Batting - 4 (423), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 79 (306), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 73 (262), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 30 (319), Average HOFer ≈ 50

HometownHero
12-18-2012, 11:55 AM
DH's have a hard enough time getting in the HOF and this one is a wind factory with a .240 AVG



Black Ink Batting - 4 (423), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 79 (306), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 73 (262), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 30 (319), Average HOFer ≈ 50

Once again nobody is saying he is right now, on the Hall of Fame Monitor he is at 73 and 100 is a likely HOF if he gets to 600 HR that 73 will jump to 93 without factoring in other stats. If he gets to 2000 hits that's another 4 points and to get to 600 HR he will need some HR seasons and you get 4 points for 40 HR, and 2 points for 30 HR and 3 for a 100 RBI season or 100 Runs as well as other stats.

webbbj
12-18-2012, 12:05 PM
Once again nobody is saying he is right now, on the Hall of Fame Monitor he is at 73 and 100 is a likely HOF if he gets to 600 HR that 73 will jump to 93 without factoring in other stats. If he gets to 2000 hits that's another 4 points and to get to 600 HR he will need some HR seasons and you get 4 points for 40 HR, and 2 points for 30 HR and 3 for a 100 RBI season or 100 Runs as well as other stats.

If he isnt a HOFer now why would that change in 5 years? He certainly isnt going to become a better player. He may hit more HRs and get to 550-600 but he's still the same player.

A HOFer needs about 6-8 great seasons and Adam Dunn has 0 or 1.

coachpipe
12-18-2012, 12:35 PM
[QUOTE=dkamberi25;2788189]Dunn was my favorite Red but I can't see him making the hall. He would have to do something insaine like get to 600 home runs to get considered.[/QUOTE

Ouch. Favorite Red? He was my least favorite player without a doubt. Him or Aaron Boone. Everyball hit to them was a good chance at an error. And if they didnt hit a home run it was either a pop out or strikeout

HometownHero
12-18-2012, 02:39 PM
If he isnt a HOFer now why would that change in 5 years? He certainly isnt going to become a better player. He may hit more HRs and get to 550-600 but he's still the same player.

A HOFer needs about 6-8 great seasons and Adam Dunn has 0 or 1.

He isn't a HOF now because he just turned 33 years and he hasn't stock piled enough stats yet, But the fact he could play for potentially 10 more years he has a great chance at getting deep into the Top-10 in HR and BB as well as 2000 hits and into the Top-60 or better all time in a few other stats.

Dunn has 8 years of 38 HR or more and 8 Years of 100 or more Walks to act like he is some bum is comical just because he doesn't hit for BA or play defense. If he didn't put up amazing numbers he wouldn't have a shot to get over 100 on the Hall of Fame Monitor which is all based off stats.

nheath22
12-18-2012, 02:54 PM
Dunn has 8 years of 38 HR or more and 8 Years of 100 or more Walks to act like he is some bum is comical just because he doesn't hit for BA or play defense. If he didn't put up amazing numbers he wouldn't have a shot to get over 100 on the Hall of Fame Monitor which is all based off stats.

I don't think anyone who has posted thinks Dunn is a bum by any means, he has definitely had a solid MLB career and put together some incredible stats in terms of the HRs and Walks which have been mentioned several times. The problem with Dunn is we are talking about the HOF, for the greatest players of all time, and Dunn is not nor will he be one of the greatest in MLB history.
The stat I can't get over is that he was never even considered one of the 20 best players in any given season (just in the NL btw) based on MVP balloting.
Yes, he will stack up a ton of HRs for his career and may even break the top 10 all time list for HRs one day; but if you aren't ever one of the best in one given season, you probably aren't one of the best of all time.

SweetLou1990
12-18-2012, 08:03 PM
If he isnt a HOFer now why would that change in 5 years? He certainly isnt going to become a better player. He may hit more HRs and get to 550-600 but he's still the same player.

A HOFer needs about 6-8 great seasons and Adam Dunn has 0 or 1.

I agree with this logic, he's not getting any better and he's not a HOF right now. To see a what a HOF looks like, please research Barry Louis Larkin. These guys are not in the same ctegory and who wants them in the same building?:eek:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Larkin

SweetLou1990
12-18-2012, 08:06 PM
From the Wiki page:

In 1988 Larkin led all major leaguers by striking out only 24 times in 588 at bats.:D

New York Red
12-18-2012, 10:16 PM
The thing that isn't getting mentioned enough in this thread is Dunn's defense. I realize there are plenty of players in the HOF who weren't great defensively, but Adam Dunn took bad defense to an entirely different level. That's one of the reasons I never liked him when he was with the Reds. I'll never forget the article in which he said he spent the entire off-season sitting on his couch eating and playing video games. If he had ever cared enough to work out, diet and get his body in better shape, there's no telling what kind of player he could have been.

He can hit HRs and draw walks, but pretty much everything else about him as a baseball player is a big negative. He could hit 600-650 HRs with 1500+ RBI, and still probably have no chance of getting in the HOF.

HometownHero
12-18-2012, 10:43 PM
The problem with Dunn is we are talking about the HOF, for the greatest players of all time, and Dunn is not nor will he be one of the greatest in MLB history.

There are countless guys in the HOF who aren't anywhere close to the greatest players in the game and many other HOF players have relied on just defense to make it in. If he gets over 600 HR and 1700 walks and becomes Top-10 in both as well breaking 2,000 hits and finishing in Top-50 in RBI, Top-60 in times on base despite the low BA, Top-100 in career runs scored he will be in some elite company and get legit HOF consideration.

HometownHero
12-18-2012, 10:47 PM
The thing that isn't getting mentioned enough in this thread is Dunn's defense..

Its a new era the DH is a major part of the game and players are going to start going into the HOF who can't play a bit of defense or where DH their whole careers.

New York Red
12-19-2012, 04:39 PM
Its a new era the DH is a major part of the game and players are going to start going into the HOF who can't play a bit of defense or where DH their whole careers.
I realize that, but Dunn has DH'd in only 250 of the 1,721 games he's played in his MLB career.

HometownHero
12-19-2012, 06:38 PM
I realize that, but Dunn has DH'd in only 250 of the 1,721 games he's played in his MLB career.

Mike Piazza will go into he HOF and he was a terrible defender and couldn't run the bases either but his bat's putting him in.

MoneyInTheBank
12-19-2012, 07:20 PM
A HOFer needs about 6-8 great seasons and Adam Dunn has 0 or 1.


I guess I have a different definition of a great season... 6 seasons of .890 OPS is pretty impressive. 6 seasons of 40 or more HRs, 2 more with 38. 6 100 RBI seasons, 8 100 walk seasons.

nheath22
12-19-2012, 07:37 PM
Mike Piazza will go into he HOF and he was a terrible defender and couldn't run the bases either but his bat's putting him in.

Mike Piazza was also a much more all around hitter who could hit 400 home-runs and still bat .300 for his career. He basically had Adam Dunn's power without his other offensive flaws. He also was a top 10 in MVP 7 times.

webbbj
12-19-2012, 07:45 PM
I think the fact that there is a discussion of whether Dunn is a HOFer or not should mean he is not a HOFer.

I personally think they let too many pple in as it is. I think a HOFer should have such a distinct and defined career that you dont need a discussion. You can say "yes or no" w/in a second.

I can go on a rant for why the HOF shouldnt allow 15 years to consider. I think 1 year is enough. Once a player retires his #s or game isnt going to change from year to year.

MoneyInTheBank
12-19-2012, 08:40 PM
The thing that isn't getting mentioned enough in this thread is Dunn's defense. I realize there are plenty of players in the HOF who weren't great defensively, but Adam Dunn took bad defense to an entirely different level. That's one of the reasons I never liked him when he was with the Reds. I'll never forget the article in which he said he spent the entire off-season sitting on his couch eating and playing video games. If he had ever cared enough to work out, diet and get his body in better shape, there's no telling what kind of player he could have been.

He can hit HRs and draw walks, but pretty much everything else about him as a baseball player is a big negative. He could hit 600-650 HRs with 1500+ RBI, and still probably have no chance of getting in the HOF.

Let's not get carried away... Yes, he played outfield longer than he should have and he's not a good 1st baseman either, but "a whole new level"? Hardly. It's also not fair to say he's not a hall of famer because he didn't reach his full potential.

93 runs and 96 RBI a season are big negatives?

We are not talking about an above average HR hitter or BB guy either, we are talking about a historically great one. He has 6 40 homer seasons, he's in pretty stellar company there. Ruth, Killebrew, Aaron, Bonds, Rodriguez, Griffey, Sosa, McGwire, Thome, Pujols. That's it. In the history of baseball. 600 HRs would make him top 10 all time. 100 walk seasons. He has 8. Rickey Henderson has 7. Yastrzemski has 6.

Dunn is 33 years old. Again, not a HOFer right now. I just don't think you can ignore the historical nature of his numbers if he does reach some of those milestones. Again, not a lock, but definitely not a "no chance"

New York Red
12-19-2012, 09:00 PM
I think the fact that there is a discussion of whether Dunn is a HOFer or not should mean he is not a HOFer.

I personally think they let too many pple in as it is. I think a HOFer should have such a distinct and defined career that you dont need a discussion. You can say "yes or no" w/in a second.
I pretty much agree with these points. You won't see an 'Is Adam Dunn a potential HOFer' discussion anywhere else, so that proves your point even more.

New York Red
12-19-2012, 09:03 PM
Let's not get carried away... Yes, he played outfield longer than he should have and he's not a good 1st baseman either, but "a whole new level"? Hardly. It's also not fair to say he's not a hall of famer because he didn't reach his full potential.

93 runs and 96 RBI a season are big negatives?

We are not talking about an above average HR hitter or BB guy either, we are talking about a historically great one. He has 6 40 homer seasons, he's in pretty stellar company there. Ruth, Killebrew, Aaron, Bonds, Rodriguez, Griffey, Sosa, McGwire, Thome, Pujols. That's it. In the history of baseball. 600 HRs would make him top 10 all time. 100 walk seasons. He has 8. Rickey Henderson has 7. Yastrzemski has 6.

Dunn is 33 years old. Again, not a HOFer right now. I just don't think you can ignore the historical nature of his numbers if he does reach some of those milestones. Again, not a lock, but definitely not a "no chance"
One thing you always hear in regards to a player being HOF worthy is, were they one of the game's greatest players in any particular decade? Adam Dunn has never even finished in the top 20 in MVP voting for any season. I think that stat alone takes him completely out of any HOF consideration.

webbbj
12-19-2012, 09:03 PM
Dunn is one of the most unique players ever. If his production stays on par long enough he may get top 10 in HRs and Walks. But despite that he hasnt been a great player.

Putting up 40 HRs and 100 walks multiple seasons is a great accomplishment but his K rate and defense are just as bad as his HR and Walk rate are good.

Adam Dunn has a lot of very good seasons. A bunch of very good seasons do not = a great career they = a very good career. Great players who put up multiple great seasons deserve HOF recognition. Good players who put up 10-12 very good seasons do not.

HometownHero
12-19-2012, 10:24 PM
Mike Piazza was also a much more all around hitter who could hit 400 home-runs and still bat .300 for his career. He basically had Adam Dunn's power without his other offensive flaws. He also was a top 10 in MVP 7 times.

He doesn't have Dunn's power as Dunn has 406 HR right now after his age 32 season and Mike finished with 427, Piazza had 779 XBH in his career while Dunn has 717 right now and should hit far more HR and have more 2B and 3B as well. Even with Mike being better average hitter Dunn has a shot to finish with more hits if he plays as long. Dunn has already walked 411 more times and has more steals. He should also finish with more RBI and is just 60 runs behind him. So is the BA honestly that much bigger if Dunn beats him in ever

drowg14
12-19-2012, 10:47 PM
He doesn't have Dunn's power as Dunn has 406 HR right now after his age 32 season and Mike finished with 427, Piazza had 779 XBH in his career while Dunn has 717 right now and should hit far more HR and have more 2B and 3B as well. Even with Mike being better average hitter Dunn has a shot to finish with more hits if he plays as long. Dunn has already walked 411 more times and has more steals. He should also finish with more RBI and is just 60 runs behind him. So is the BA honestly that much bigger if Dunn beats him in ever

Piazza is a catcher. Dunn is a bat only LF/1B/DH. Catcher's aren't supposed to hit like first baseman. Piazza is arguably the second best catcher of all time, and I don't see him as being any lower than fifth best of all time. The two are not even close to comparable.

HometownHero
12-19-2012, 10:53 PM
Piazza is a catcher. Dunn is a bat only LF/1B/DH. Catcher's aren't supposed to hit like first baseman. Piazza is arguably the second best catcher of all time, and I don't see him as being any lower than fifth best of all time. The two are not even close to comparable.

Piazza was pure bat, he was one of the worst defensive catchers ever. If he came up in the AL he would have been a DH for the better part of his career if not the whole thing.

drowg14
12-19-2012, 10:56 PM
Piazza was pure bat, he was one of the worst defensive catchers ever. If he came up in the AL he would have been a DH for the better part of his career if not the whole thing.

But he still played Catcher. And he put up those numbers while spending every defensive inning crouched behind home plate. Catching wears on the body moreso than any other position, over the course of a game, a season, and a career. If he had been a DH full time, I guarantee you his numbers would have been higher.

HometownHero
12-19-2012, 11:28 PM
But he still played Catcher. And he put up those numbers while spending every defensive inning crouched behind home plate. Catching wears on the body moreso than any other position, over the course of a game, a season, and a career. If he had been a DH full time, I guarantee you his numbers would have been higher.

The whole point was very poor defensive players who were bad on the bases get into the HOF if they hit just like all glove players like Ozzie Smith make it even with a .666 OPS and one year over 100 Runs scored. Dunn has a shot at 600 HR and if he gets there with getting in the Top-10 in walks, over 2,000 hits and in the Top-50 in other stats he will have a legit shot at the HOF.

BlackPete Ibold
12-20-2012, 12:00 AM
So what # would you put on Dunn's chances to get into the HoF?

I'm selling high at less than 1%...

BlackPete Ibold
12-20-2012, 12:13 AM
To be a bit more fair, the reason I feel Dunn has no real shot at the HoF has more to do with the devaluation of the HR in the minds of voters post steroid era than his likely final compiled stats.

McGwire has been villified, and with good reason. But you also see plenty of metrics that show he was such an incomplete player that he doesn't deserve the HoF on merit anyway -- only a few great seasons (roid enhanced), majority bad ones, etc. I see plenty of articles to this effect every year the last few seasons, and it will continue with Bagwell and others.

Dunn doesn't even compare to Big Mac in the only area to compare, and that is HR. OBVIOUSLY Dunn is not a roider -- please do not think I am making that comparison.

I do think, though, that HoF voters have been and will continue to be forced to ignore the "magic" number of 500 HRs so often that it will no longer be an issue to omit a clean 500 like Dunn probably gets.

MoneyInTheBank
12-20-2012, 06:29 AM
One thing you always hear in regards to a player being HOF worthy is, were they one of the game's greatest players in any particular decade? Adam Dunn has never even finished in the top 20 in MVP voting for any season. I think that stat alone takes him completely out of any HOF consideration.

Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove Award at 1st base while playing DH. Awards that are voted on are filled with biases and misinformation. Baseball stats have no bias or misinformation. Maybe just how good he is as a hitter is underappreciated.

drowg14
12-20-2012, 07:22 AM
Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove Award at 1st base while playing DH. Awards that are voted on are filled with biases and misinformation. Baseball stats have no bias or misinformation. Maybe just how good he is as a hitter is underappreciated.

I don't agree with the bolded part. All stats, traditional and saber, have biases imho. HRs can have a bias towards ballpark, RBI are bias towards opportunity, ERA is a bias towards ballpark/defense, wins is a bias towards quality of team, most saber stats have a bias of how you weigh certain factors.

I'm not saying this as an argument for or against Dunn, just as a general statement.

New York Red
12-20-2012, 02:56 PM
Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove Award at 1st base while playing DH. Awards that are voted on are filled with biases and misinformation. Baseball stats have no bias or misinformation. Maybe just how good he is as a hitter is underappreciated.
So your point is, Adam Dunn having never finished in the top 20 in MVP voting in any single season is due to some sort of bias?

Captain13
12-20-2012, 03:30 PM
So your point is, Adam Dunn having never finished in the top 20 in MVP voting in any single season is due to some sort of bias?

Yes, and that bias was he played on terrible Reds teams. He hit 40 HR with 100 RBI and 100 Runs, you can't convince me he wasn't in the top 10 players in the NL at least one of those seasons.

nheath22
12-20-2012, 03:32 PM
Maybe just how good he is as a hitter is underappreciated.

Dunn being "underappreciated" is exactly the reason why he has little shot at being considered for the hall. Players getting MVP votes and players making the hall of fame are based on very similar things including the perception of that player. "underappreciated" players don't make the HOF, even if their stats might be good enough (although as I have stated in previous posts, I don't think that Dunn's stats are).

nheath22
12-20-2012, 03:45 PM
Yes, and that bias was he played on terrible Reds teams. He hit 40 HR with 100 RBI and 100 Runs, you can't convince me he wasn't in the top 10 players in the NL at least one of those seasons.

Let's look at his best seasons and compare. I would argue that Adam Dunn's "prime" or best season was probably 2004, the year he hit 46 HRs and had 101 RBIs. That year there were 5 other players (just in the national league) who all had at least 40 HRs. Out of those 6 players, he had the lowest BA, lowest OBP, lowest WAR, and was middle of the pack for walks.

2004 MVP NL Voting (http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2004.shtml#NLmvp)

So even in his best season, he was barely a top 5 offensive player in the NL. I don't think the bias was that heavy against Dunn. His WAR that year was only 15th in the NL.

texasdave
12-20-2012, 03:59 PM
Let's look at his best seasons and compare. I would argue that Adam Dunn's "prime" or best season was probably 2004, the year he hit 46 HRs and had 101 RBIs. That year there were 5 other players (just in the national league) who all had at least 40 HRs. Out of those 6 players, he had the lowest BA, lowest OBP, lowest WAR, and was middle of the pack for walks.

2004 MVP NL Voting (http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2004.shtml#NLmvp)

So even in his best season, he was barely a top 5 offensive player in the NL. I don't think the bias was that heavy against Dunn. His WAR that year was only 15th in the NL.


I would just chip in with the fact that there were also 5 N.L. pitchers with a higher WAR value than Dunn that year. That would put him around the 20 mark. IMO, he never was a Top 10 player in the league in any single season. HOF? Not a chance.

nheath22
12-20-2012, 04:38 PM
I would just chip in with the fact that there were also 5 N.L. pitchers with a higher WAR value than Dunn that year. That would put him around the 20 mark. IMO, he never was a Top 10 player in the league in any single season. HOF? Not a chance.

I think 15th already included pitchers, so he would have been around 11th for batters I believe in terms of WAR that year in the NL.

MoneyInTheBank
12-20-2012, 06:34 PM
Dunn being "underappreciated" is exactly the reason why he has little shot at being considered for the hall. Players getting MVP votes and players making the hall of fame are based on very similar things including the perception of that player. "underappreciated" players don't make the HOF, even if their stats might be good enough (although as I have stated in previous posts, I don't think that Dunn's stats are).

If the title of the thread was "Will Adam Dunn make it to the Hall of Fame?" then, yes, I agree, I don't think he gets in. But for a guy with 600 HR and 1500 BB not to be given at least some serious consideration is just beyond comprehension for me

MoneyInTheBank
12-20-2012, 06:55 PM
I don't agree with the bolded part. All stats, traditional and saber, have biases imho. HRs can have a bias towards ballpark, RBI are bias towards opportunity, ERA is a bias towards ballpark/defense, wins is a bias towards quality of team, most saber stats have a bias of how you weigh certain factors.

I'm not saying this as an argument for or against Dunn, just as a general statement.

I don't mean bias in the sense of a "statistical bias". I'm referring to the fact that statistics count, they calculate, they quantify. People (voters) feel, judge, aim to please others.

A statistic is unable to say "Adam Dunn isn't dedicated to baseball, I'm going to give him less Home Runs this season", A voter can say "Adam Dunn isn't dedicated to baseball, I'd never vote for him for MVP". A statistic is unable to say "Adam Dunn strikes out all the time and plays bad defense, I am going to give him less walks this season", a voter can say "Adam Dunn strikes out all the time and plays bad defense, I'd never vote for a guy like that." I'm not saying these things happened but I'm just trying to point out that if a guy plays good enough for long enough to hit 600 Home Runs, IMO, you were watching greatness.

MoneyInTheBank
12-20-2012, 07:10 PM
So your point is, Adam Dunn having never finished in the top 20 in MVP voting in any single season is due to some sort of bias?

I'll just say this... If you assigned his 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010 stats to Ryan Howard, he finishes at least in the top 15 in the MVP voting. Maybe Dunn should try to get a Subway commercial?

drowg14
12-20-2012, 07:28 PM
I don't mean bias in the sense of a "statistical bias". I'm referring to the fact that statistics count, they calculate, they quantify. People (voters) feel, judge, aim to please others.

A statistic is unable to say "Adam Dunn isn't dedicated to baseball, I'm going to give him less Home Runs this season", A voter can say "Adam Dunn isn't dedicated to baseball, I'd never vote for him for MVP". A statistic is unable to say "Adam Dunn strikes out all the time and plays bad defense, I am going to give him less walks this season", a voter can say "Adam Dunn strikes out all the time and plays bad defense, I'd never vote for a guy like that." I'm not saying these things happened but I'm just trying to point out that if a guy plays good enough for long enough to hit 600 Home Runs, IMO, you were watching greatness.

Hmm.. I get what you are getting at now with the bias thing.The big problem with all awards these days, mvp, cy young, HOF, is the voter bias. It's why I really stopped caring about them (apart from arguing about them on internet message boards :thumbup:). Bias is what might keep one of the top 3 players ever out of the hall, bias is what won Miggy the mvp last year (as great as he was, Trout was better).

But the problem with Dunn is he didn't do anything positive except for hit HRs and walk. And his 2011 season is not a season someone should have if they are worthy for the Hall. I'm not saying there aren't players worse than him in the HOF, as there probably are. But I don't buy into the automatic qualifiers such as 500 hrs, 3000 hits etc. Then when you factor in the era in which Dunn played in, his numbers impress me less. And now that his k% has been over 30% for the past 3 years, I wouldn't be surprised if it is because he's had to start cheating on fastballs in order to keep hitting so many HRs as his bat speed slows (I haven't watched him in several years so I can't say this is actually what is happening). So I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even reach 500/600 hrs.

Adam Dunn is/was a good baseball player. But, at least imho, he is far from great.

drowg14
12-20-2012, 07:31 PM
I'll just say this... If you assigned his 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010 stats to Ryan Howard, he finishes at least in the top 15 in the MVP voting. Maybe Dunn should try to get a Subway commercial?

Ryan was a very overrated player. But his 2006 was pretty legit (Pujols still should have won the MVP though). So Howard is a good comp in that neither one of them is really a great player.

MoneyInTheBank
12-20-2012, 08:09 PM
But the problem with Dunn is he didn't do anything positive except for hit HRs and walk. And his 2011 season is not a season someone should have if they are worthy for the Hall. I'm not saying there aren't players worse than him in the HOF, as there probably are. But I don't buy into the automatic qualifiers such as 500 hrs, 3000 hits etc. Then when you factor in the era in which Dunn played in, his numbers impress me less. And now that his k% has been over 30% for the past 3 years, I wouldn't be surprised if it is because he's had to start cheating on fastballs in order to keep hitting so many HRs as his bat speed slows (I haven't watched him in several years so I can't say this is actually what is happening). So I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even reach 500/600 hrs.

Adam Dunn is/was a good baseball player. But, at least imho, he is far from great.

By no means am I considering a certain # of HRs an "automatic qualifier". I'm just saying that for a guy to average 34 HRs over 18 years to get over 600 is incredibly impressive no matter how you slice it.

When it comes to the steroid era, if you were a "non-juicing" player during that era (which we have no reason to believe he was juicing), wouldn't your numbers actually be MORE impressive because the pitchers were juicing at a high rate as well? I would be less impressed if his career numbers were driven by the steroid era, but his power numbers have stayed consistent (other than a 1 year outlier) well beyond.

Like I said, I don't expect Dunn to reach 600 HR. I don't think he wants to keep himself in baseball shape until he's 38. I see him playing another 2-3 years and walking away not caring for one second about his legacy or place in baseball history. I don't think he'll hang on a couple of extra years to reach statistical milestones.

New York Red
12-20-2012, 08:39 PM
Let's look at his best seasons and compare. I would argue that Adam Dunn's "prime" or best season was probably 2004, the year he hit 46 HRs and had 101 RBIs. That year there were 5 other players (just in the national league) who all had at least 40 HRs. Out of those 6 players, he had the lowest BA, lowest OBP, lowest WAR, and was middle of the pack for walks.

2004 MVP NL Voting (http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2004.shtml#NLmvp)

So even in his best season, he was barely a top 5 offensive player in the NL. I don't think the bias was that heavy against Dunn. His WAR that year was only 15th in the NL.
Add in the fact he played in the league's most homer friendly park, and his value is lessened even more.

MoneyInTheBank
12-20-2012, 09:39 PM
Add in the fact he played in the league's most homer friendly park, and his value is lessened even more.

According to ESPN Park Factors...

2001 - 14th (CIN)
2002 - 6th (CIN)
2003 - 7th (CIN)
2004 - 13th (CIN)
2005 - 6th (CIN)
2006 - 3rd (CIN)
2007 - 2nd (CIN)
2008 - 4th/10th (Traded to ARI Midseason)
2009 - 19th (WSH)
2010 - 15th (WSH)
2011 - 5th (CHI)
2012 - 4th (CHI)