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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #3 prospect? 2013



texasdave
12-16-2012, 11:09 AM
1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson


Here is where it might start to get interesting. Pick away. I am going with Johnny Junior (Daniel Corcino) and hoping that lightning strikes twice.

Scrap Irony
12-16-2012, 11:40 AM
Cingrani.

Considered both Corcino and Cingrani, then looked at production across same levels, age, handedness, size, scouting reports, and experience. Cingrani's got a decided edge in three of those areas. Two are pushes, and one goes to Corcino.

Cingrani has a real chance to help the bullpen this year as a shut-down LH, though that may waste his arm somewhat. Right now, he's a LH JJ Hoover with upside.

Corcino's climbing BB rate and his dropping K rate concerns me. I still see him as nice AAA depth this season, with an outside chance at replacing Arroyo next season as fifth starter.

mth123
12-16-2012, 11:41 AM
Cingrani. Lower chance of being a complete bust. A late inning reliever almost certainly with a chance of being a solid or better starter.

Its close though. Couldn't argue with Corcino here.

Ohayou
12-16-2012, 12:28 PM
Originally had Corcino ranked above Cingrani in my last Top 10, finally decided to flip the two after seeing a little more of Tony.

Steve4192
12-16-2012, 12:38 PM
Cingrani.

Considered both Corcino and Cingrani, then looked at production across same levels, age, handedness, size, scouting reports, and experience. Cingrani's got a decided edge in three of those areas. Two are pushes, and one goes to Corcino.

Corcino has a decided edge in pro experience and experience as a starter. Corcino has 58 starts in full-season pro ball before his 22nd birthday. At the same age, Cingrani was still getting his feet wet in rookie ball and making the transition from college closer to pro starter.

Corcino also has an advantage in age relative to level. He has been young for every league he has pitched in. Cingrani hadn't been considered young for any league he was in prior to his mid-season promotion to the Southern League in 2012.

I'd also give Corcino an edge in scouting reports. Better velocity, better breaking stuff, and more confident in using his secondary offerings. The only downside I see is his tiny frame. I don't see handedness being an edge one way or the other. 70% of the pitchers in MLB get by just fine throwing with their right hand. Sure, being a lefty might help a fringe guy hang around on a big league roster, but the hope for both of these guys is that they are WAY better than fringe players.

lollipopcurve
12-16-2012, 12:42 PM
Cingrani, easy

Scrap Irony
12-16-2012, 01:01 PM
... Corcino also has an advantage in age relative to level. He has been young for every league he has pitched in. Cingrani hadn't been considered young for any league he was in prior to his mid-season promotion to the Southern League in 2012.

And, by the end of that year, Cingrani was in the majors, while Corcino was still in AA. Cingrani, at the same level, at roughly the same age, did much, much better.



I'd also give Corcino an edge in scouting reports. Better velocity, better breaking stuff, and more confident in using his secondary offerings.

We apparently talk to/ read different scouts. Swing and miss percentages also seem to show a major difference here; that helps determine stuff, as it's not always about how hard someone can throw, but with what movement/ deception they throw it.



The only downside I see is his tiny frame.

Corcino is a max-effort guy. That often leads to arm woes and, IMO, is a major danger sign.



I don't see handedness being an edge one way or the other. 70% of the pitchers in MLB get by just fine throwing with their right hand. Sure, being a lefty might help a fringe guy hang around on a big league roster, but the hope for both of these guys is that they are WAY better than fringe players.

Being a lefty means your natural stuff plays up. A lefty with a 92 mph fastball is tougher to hit than a RH with a 92 mph fastball because the arm angle and pitch rotation is less common. It's a fairly big deal, IMO.

Steve4192
12-16-2012, 01:08 PM
Scrap,

those are all valid points, but I still see Cingrani as Sean Marshall-lite, while Corcino is Johnny Cueto-lite. If I had to choose between them, I'd choose the Cueto clone.

Scrap Irony
12-16-2012, 01:12 PM
Fair enough.

Different strokes, and all that.

dougdirt
12-16-2012, 01:51 PM
Corcino. Much safer bet to be a Major League starting pitcher.

JaxRed
12-16-2012, 01:55 PM
Absolutely Cingrani

mth123
12-16-2012, 02:15 PM
Corcino. Much safer bet to be a Major League starting pitcher.

I'd counter that Cingrani looks to be a safer bet to be an effective pitcher. It may be from the pen, but "meh" starters are easier to find than effective bullpen lefties (I'd rather have Jeremy Affeldt than say Jason Marquis). Add the possibility that Cingrani could easily be just as effective in the rotation as Corcino and that tips the scales IMO.

It's close though. This post probably makes it seem that I feel more strongly than I actually do.

dougdirt
12-16-2012, 02:23 PM
I'd counter that Cingrani looks to be a safer bet to be an effective pitcher. It may be from the pen, but "meh" starters are easier to find than effective bullpen lefties (I'd rather have Jeremy Affeldt than say Jason Marquis). Add the possibility that Cingrani could easily be just as effective in the rotation as Corcino and that tips the scales IMO.

It's close though. This post probably makes it seem that I feel more strongly than I actually do.

I don't know. Put Corcino in the bullpen and he probably has a mid 90's fastball and a really nice slider.

Put Cingrani in the bullpen and he is still a guy who wants to throw 80% fastballs who doesn't trust his change up.

Scrap Irony
12-16-2012, 02:30 PM
Put Cingrani in the bullpen and he is still a guy who wants to throw 80% fastballs who doesn't trust his change up.

Well, that and two less hits than IP, a K rate of 16.2, and an ERA of 1.80. (SSS, I realize.)

mth123
12-16-2012, 02:43 PM
I don't know. Put Corcino in the bullpen and he probably has a mid 90's fastball and a really nice slider.

Put Cingrani in the bullpen and he is still a guy who wants to throw 80% fastballs who doesn't trust his change up.

But Cingrani's command makes it highly likely that the fastball will be an effective pitch if its limited to three or four hitters per game. I don't have that same "surprised if he's not at least useful" feeling about Corcino...

Corcino could be better, but I think Cingrani is a lot safer.

Kc61
12-16-2012, 03:13 PM
I'm the only one, but I've got Winker.

Kid seems to be such an outstanding contact/OBP hitter that I'd expect him to be very likely to be a successful major leaguer.

Obviously, high level starting pitchers are worth more, but I don't see either Cingrani or Corcino to be a lock as a successful MLB pitcher.

So after Hamliton and Stephenson, I've got Winker.

Steve4192
12-16-2012, 03:21 PM
I'm the only one, but I've got Winker.

Kid seems to be such an outstanding contact/OBP hitter that I'd expect him to be very likely to be a successful major leaguer.

Obviously, high level starting pitchers are worth more, but I don't see either Cingrani or Corcino to be a lock as a successful MLB pitcher.

So after Hamliton and Stephenson, I've got Winker.

I like Winker quite a bit, but Billings has created a plethora of pyrite prospects at the plate over the years. I'll be a LOT more confident in Winker once we see what he can do in Dayton.

dougdirt
12-16-2012, 03:35 PM
I like Winker quite a bit, but Billings has created a whole of pyrite prospects at the plate over the years. I'll be a LOT more confident in Winker once we see what he can do in Dayton.

How many of them were first rounders who also showed off excellent plate discipline while being teenagers though? We should also note that Cobb Field was hitter friendly, while Dehler Park is pretty neutral.

dougdirt
12-16-2012, 03:36 PM
But Cingrani's command makes it highly likely that the fastball will be an effective pitch if its limited to three or four hitters per game. I don't have that same "surprised if he's not at least useful" feeling about Corcino...

Corcino could be better, but I think Cingrani is a lot safer.

I just don't know how you can have that feeling about Corcino. I can see where you could be more comfortable with Cingrani as a reliever. I don't agree with it, but I can see it. I just can't see how you can look at Corcino, who as a starter can hit 96-97 every now and again with a good slider and not feel he would be "at least useful".

Steve4192
12-16-2012, 03:56 PM
How many of them were first rounders who also showed off excellent plate discipline while being teenagers though?

Kind of a silly question.

Since the turn of the century, only four players fit your age/draft position criteria (Winker, Mesoraco, Bruce, David Espinosa). Of those four, only two played at Billings (Winker, Bruce) and only one played at Billings and subsequently advanced to the majors (Bruce). It's kind of hard to draw any meaningful comparisons when you put such an extreme limitation on your data.

mth123
12-16-2012, 03:58 PM
I just don't know how you can have that feeling about Corcino. I can see where you could be more comfortable with Cingrani as a reliever. I don't agree with it, but I can see it. I just can't see how you can look at Corcino, who as a starter can hit 96-97 every now and again with a good slider and not feel he would be "at least useful".

I guess its Cingrani's ability to spot his fastball wherever he wants it. That seems like a bankable skill. Corcino has good pitches, but they don't seem as bankable as Cingrani's fastball command. Maybe I'm over-estimating Cingrani's ability here, but if he can spot the fastball the way I understand he can, that would make him a near certainty as a reliever. Corcino has good stuff and good pitches, but seems to have a greater chance to miss out and become a non-factor.

Kc61
12-16-2012, 03:58 PM
I like Winker quite a bit, but Billings has created a plethora of pyrite prospects at the plate over the years. I'll be a LOT more confident in Winker once we see what he can do in Dayton.

I also considered the reports on Winker before he played at Billings, when the Reds drafted him. I also considered his excellent K/BB ratio which really isn't a Billings thing. I also considered his .443 OBP at Billings, which is outstanding in any league. Drop 50 or 60 points off his OBP, it's still excellent.

If I were to be critical of my own selection, it's possible I'm influenced by the Reds' need, which includes lefty hitters who get on base.

To commend my own pick, however, I don't see Cingrani or Corcino as being in the highest echelon of pitching prospects, so it's fair IMO to give this spot to Jesse Winker.

I would vote for Cingrani fourth and Corcino fifth.

Scrap Irony
12-16-2012, 04:03 PM
Good points on Winker. I really, really like his numbers.

But he's so far away and the distance between is vast as Ozymandias' desert.

dougdirt
12-16-2012, 04:20 PM
Kind of a silly question.

Since the turn of the century, only four players fit your age/draft position criteria (Winker, Mesoraco, Bruce, David Espinosa). Of those four, only two played at Billings (Winker, Bruce) and only one played at Billings and subsequently advanced to the majors (Bruce). It's kind of hard to draw any meaningful comparisons when you put such an extreme limitation on your data.

Well then your original statement was kind of silly if you aren't going to be comparing him to players similar to him isn't it? I mean, yeah, guys like Chris Valaika and Danny Dorn hit really well in Billings, but they aren't comparable to Winker. Historically, there really aren't too many comparables for Winker on the numbers side of things. Going back to 1995, there have been all of 9 18-year-olds with a K/BB of 1.5 or better in the Pioneer League. Some Major Leaguers in there. Some guys I have never heard of too. Just seems silly to be unsure of him because other guys have hit there and not turned out. Other guys don't fit his profile at all.

Kc61
12-16-2012, 04:56 PM
Corcino's K rate dropped to 7.9 per nine innings at AA.

Seems a little light to me at that level. And a 4.1 walk rate.

It's so impossible to distinguish between the next few guys, but that K rate might be a factor.

klw
12-17-2012, 10:57 AM
Would this be our earliest run-off ever?

Edd Roush
12-17-2012, 11:53 AM
I went with Cingrani last time, so I obviously will go with him again here. I think he has a chance to make a major impact on the Reds in 2013 and he is the second most valuable prospect in our system.

texasdave
12-17-2012, 12:06 PM
Anyone remember the runoff rules? Does it have to be a tie? Within one vote? I am not exactly sure of that procedure. Help.

Kc61
12-17-2012, 12:24 PM
Anyone remember the runoff rules? Does it have to be a tie? Withing one vote? I am not exactly sure of that procedure. Help.

It changes slightly from year to year.

Since you began the polling, I think you have the option to decide on the rules.

You can select the vote differential needed for a re-vote.

I seem to recall it was once three votes, but it's just based on memory.

Really, whatever you want, your call.

mace
12-17-2012, 12:37 PM
Anyone remember the runoff rules? Does it have to be a tie? Withing one vote? I am not exactly sure of that procedure. Help.

Two suggestions:

1. Be a dictator.

2. Streamline as much as possible.

Although I do think we've done runoffs on very close votes, it certainly wouldn't bother me to restrict it to ties. I mean, if we held a runoff and a guy won by a vote, that would stand. Seems to me that a win is a win--why complicate it? I don't think there would be an outcry if you did it that way. But that said, I'm good with whatever you choose to do. If there is a runoff, I'd definitely shorten the time frame for the vote.

Kc61
12-17-2012, 12:51 PM
In this case and similar cases, you could just ask the (very few) people who didn't vote for Cingrani or Corcino to re-vote for one of them. There's your re-vote.

Could be fast and easy, if it could be done.

Steve4192
12-17-2012, 01:09 PM
No need for a runoff.

It's a stone cold lock that Cingrani-Corcino will be #3 and #4. It doesn't really matter who ends up where. Honestly, given how close the vote is, you should probably just declare it a tie and skip to the #5 spot.

Nathan
12-17-2012, 09:27 PM
This will be one of those debates that we will be interesting to look at 3-4 years from now and see how it turns out.

RED VAN HOT
12-17-2012, 09:55 PM
I also went with Winker even though the obvious choices were the C and C pitchers. His OPS and plate discipline as an 18 yo playing against mostly college pitchers or more experienced young players suggest that he has a chance to be a good hitter capable of moving through the minors more quickly. Looks like a strong corner OF'er of the future to me.

REDblooded
12-18-2012, 02:57 AM
Early in the voting I'll take ceiling over floor, hence my pick for Corcino

Kc61
12-19-2012, 12:19 PM
Early in the voting I'll take ceiling over floor, hence my pick for Corcino

I don't get this.

Corcino does not have projectable size for a starting pitcher. His K rate last year at AA was 7.9 per nine innings. His career K rate is 8.7 per nine.

Cingrani is 6'4" and 200. His K rate at AA was 10.2. His minor league career K rate is 11.5.

Corcino may be more likely to be a solid pro. But Cingrani seems to have a higher ceiling IMO. Cingrani has more of an MLB pitcher's build and misses more bats.