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View Full Version : Is Joey Votto a shoe-in hall of fame candidate?



RedTruck
12-19-2012, 05:30 AM
Assuming he stays as productive as he is 10 years from now.

I imagine he would be?

There's nothing staggering about his career stats in terms of home runs or anything, but he does have a career .316 batting average, a career .415 OBP, 429 Walks to 562 Strike Outs which is a GREAT ratio!

He's a 3 time All Star thus far, MVP winner, and Gold Glove Winner.

Great offense skills, great defense skills, great plate displine, great work ethic.

If injuries don't hinder his future, and if he continues doing what he's been achieving these past straight 6 years, than i would think he's an absolute shoe in.:beerme:

webbbj
12-19-2012, 12:32 PM
5 more years of this production hes a shoe in.

dubc47834
12-19-2012, 01:25 PM
I don't know if right now he is a 1st ballot guy, but think he gets in 2nd or 3rd year. If he continues having great years I could see where he would be a 1st ballot guy.

New York Red
12-19-2012, 05:32 PM
Ten more years at his current production, I think he'd definitely be a first ballot HOFer.

Salukifan2
12-19-2012, 05:34 PM
As of right now i don't think so. For the sake of my argument i am going to compare him to jim rice.

Rice through his age 28 season stats: 233hr, 731rbi, 1252 hits, .304 avg, .351 obp, .881 ops

Since votto's birthday is in september and he has yet to play in his age 28 season im going to add his Fan graphs projected stats for this upcoming season to his totals.

Votto through his age 28 season: 160 hr, 554 rbi, 1002 hits, .316 avg, 415 obp, .968 ops (since fan graphs doesn't give a projection for hits i gave him 180 for next season which is about career average or him).

They had both won an mvp by this point in their careers and Rice had finished in the top 5 in mvp voting 4 times compared to votto's 1 time. At the same point in their careers Rice was a 4 time all star compared to votto's 3 times. Rice also led the league in total baes for 3 straight seasons becoming the first person to accumulate over 400 total bases in 1978 since 1959. Votto's largest TB for a season is 328 Rice did better than that 3 times. both of them had missed time due to injuries at this point in their careers. Rice had led the league in homers twice compared to zero times for Votto. their strike out numbers are very similar Rice also lost about 50 games because of the shortened season in 1981. Through the age 28 season Rice had proven to be more durable than Votto as well playing in 93.5% of games compared to Votto's 87% of games. ( I only counted games in seasons where they were on the 25 man by opening day. didn't count sept. call ups).

Rice was on the ballot for 15 years before finally getting voted in. Therefore, as of right now votto is nowhere close to being a shoe in for the hall and he might be more on track to hope for a call from the veterans committee if anything. Naturally this could all change and Votto could win the next three MVP's and the reds the next three world series which would definitely make him a first ballot hall of famer. But as of right now, i don't see it.

New York Red
12-19-2012, 05:52 PM
As of right now i don't think so. For the sake of my argument i am going to compare him to jim rice.

Rice through his age 28 season stats: 233hr, 731rbi, 1252 hits

Since votto's birthday is in september and he has yet to play in his age 28 season im going to add his Fan graphs projected stats for this upcoming season to his totals.

Votto through his age 28 season: 160 hr, 554 rbi, 1002 hits (since fan graphs doesn't give a projection for hits i gave him 180 for next season which is about career average or him).

They had both won an mvp by this point in their careers and Rice had finished in the top 5 in mvp voting 4 times compare to votto's 1 time. At the same point in their careers Rice was a 4 time all star compared to votto's 3 times.

Rice was on the ballot for 15 years before finally getting voted in. Therefore, as of right now votto is nowhere close to being a shoe in for the hall and he might be more on track to hope for a call from the veterans committee if anything. Naturally this could all change and Votto could win the next three MVP's and the reds the next three world series which would definitely make him a first ballot hall of famer. But as of right now, i don't see it.
The question was if Joey maintains his current production for ten more years. Rice is an ok comparison offensively, but he retired at 36 and was basically done after he turned 34. Joey blows him away in BBs, OBP and OPS. Rice never won a Gold Glove either, while Joey is arguably the best defensive first baseman in the league.

drowg14
12-19-2012, 05:59 PM
As of right now i don't think so. For the sake of my argument i am going to compare him to jim rice.

Rice through his age 28 season stats: 233hr, 731rbi, 1252 hits, .304 avg, .351 obp, .881 ops

Since votto's birthday is in september and he has yet to play in his age 28 season im going to add his Fan graphs projected stats for this upcoming season to his totals.

Votto through his age 28 season: 160 hr, 554 rbi, 1002 hits, .316 avg, 415 obp, .968 ops (since fan graphs doesn't give a projection for hits i gave him 180 for next season which is about career average or him).

They had both won an mvp by this point in their careers and Rice had finished in the top 5 in mvp voting 4 times compare to votto's 1 time. At the same point in their careers Rice was a 4 time all star compared to votto's 3 times. Rice also led the league in total baes for 3 straight seasons becoming the first person to accumulate over 400 total bases in 1978 since 1959. Votto's largest TB for a season is 328 Rice did better than that 3 times. And both of them had missed time due to injuries at this point in their careers.

Rice was on the ballot for 15 years before finally getting voted in. Therefore, as of right now votto is nowhere close to being a shoe in for the hall and he might be more on track to hope for a call from the veterans committee if anything. Naturally this could all change and Votto could win the next three MVP's and the reds the next three world series which would definitely make him a first ballot hall of famer. But as of right now, i don't see it.

This difference between the two I think is era that they played in. Just as a quick counter argument, Rice's career wRC+ is 128, Votto's is 156 (Although Rice's did come down during the second half of his career). So basically, I'll agree with some of the others in saying that if he keeps up his current level of production for at least 5 more years, and has at least 1 or 2 more MVP's sprinkled in there, he'll be in the hall. But if he starts to decline at 30, it'll be a much tougher go.

I think his biggest challenge is if/when voters compare him to Pujols, since they played partly during the same time. Pujols hit the majors quite a bit younger than Votto, and so far, as shown a higher peak.

Salukifan2
12-19-2012, 06:07 PM
The question was if Joey maintains his current production for ten more years. Rice is an ok comparison offensively, but he retired at 36 and was basically done after he turned 34. Joey blows him away in BBs, OBP and OPS. Rice never won a Gold Glove either, while Joey is arguably the best defensive first baseman in the league.

So you assume Votto will maintain this production for 10 more years? Yeah, if he starts raiding Mark McGwire's medicine cabinet. Ill give you there are parts to Votto's game that are better than Rice's but overall rice had been more productive at that point in his career.

My point was that if it took Rice 15 years of being on the ballot to get voted in and his production was that much more impressive at this point in their careers (which it is. Yes votto draws more walks, has a nicer ops and obp but hadn't collected nearly as many total bases, rbi's or hr's) then votto should probably only get in on the veterans committee.

UCBrownsfan
12-19-2012, 06:37 PM
As of right now i don't think so. For the sake of my argument i am going to compare him to jim rice.

Rice through his age 28 season stats: 233hr, 731rbi, 1252 hits, .304 avg, .351 obp, .881 ops

Since votto's birthday is in september and he has yet to play in his age 28 season im going to add his Fan graphs projected stats for this upcoming season to his totals.

Votto through his age 28 season: 160 hr, 554 rbi, 1002 hits, .316 avg, 415 obp, .968 ops (since fan graphs doesn't give a projection for hits i gave him 180 for next season which is about career average or him).

They had both won an mvp by this point in their careers and Rice had finished in the top 5 in mvp voting 4 times compared to votto's 1 time. At the same point in their careers Rice was a 4 time all star compared to votto's 3 times. Rice also led the league in total baes for 3 straight seasons becoming the first person to accumulate over 400 total bases in 1978 since 1959. Votto's largest TB for a season is 328 Rice did better than that 3 times. both of them had missed time due to injuries at this point in their careers. Rice had led the league in homers twice compared to zero times for Votto. their strike out numbers are very similar Rice also lost about 50 games because of the shortened season in 1981. Through the age 28 season Rice had proven to be more durable than Votto as well playing in 93.5% of games compared to Votto's 87% of games. ( I only counted games in seasons where they were on the 25 man by opening day. didn't count sept. call ups).

Rice was on the ballot for 15 years before finally getting voted in. Therefore, as of right now votto is nowhere close to being a shoe in for the hall and he might be more on track to hope for a call from the veterans committee if anything. Naturally this could all change and Votto could win the next three MVP's and the reds the next three world series which would definitely make him a first ballot hall of famer. But as of right now, i don't see it.

Jim Rice's career best OPS+ was 157, Joey Votto's career average OPS+ is 155, so basically Jim Rice's best year is Joey Votto's average, not sure it's a great comp.

Jim Rice topped a .900 OPS four times in his career, and never topped 1.
Joey Votto has already topped .900 four times, and has topped 1 twice.

Also with Pujols and Fielder now in the AL, there isn't much in the way of Votto being a constant All-Star.

Salukifan2
12-19-2012, 06:44 PM
Votto did not produce the same amount runs as jim rice. at all. Its not even close. I understand Votto has a fantastic eye which make his OPS go through the roof. But They slugged very similarly through age 28.

Also votto isn't out of his prime yet, he too will see his ops and slugging fall as he gets past 32 years old just like everyone else.

drowg14
12-19-2012, 06:55 PM
Votto did not produce the same amount runs as jim rice. at all. Its not even close. I understand Votto has a fantastic eye which make his OPS go through the roof. But They slugged very similarly through age 28.

Also votto isn't out of his prime yet, he too will see his ops and slugging fall as he gets past 32 years old just like everyone else.

By produce do you mean RBI? RBIs are not a gauge of talent. They are a gauge for the lineup you are placed in, where in the lineup you are, and the run environment of the era/ballpark.

If you go by wRC+ (The amount of runs a player creates compared to the rest of his peers, ballpark adjusted) Votto did produce more runs than Jim Rice.

Salukifan2
12-19-2012, 07:51 PM
And now start the slew of sabremetric arguments that people need to go dig up and search for counter. Votto gets on base more than rice. thats his only stat that highly exceeds Rice. And as i said i wasn't looking at either of their entire careers. Just through age 28. Through age 28 Rice was a more productive player than Votto. Thats why he made more all star appearances and was in the running for MVP so much more. Joey didn't even get into the league until he was 24. That gives him 10 seasons of prime resume building before his numbers will begin to deteriorate. Through those 5 of those 10 years he is averaging less than 26 hr, and 88 rbi. If he was Eddie Murray and started doing that when he was 20 and kept it up till he was 40. Then yes he would be a shoe in for the hall. But as of right now, those numbers do not put him on pace to be a hall of famer. He is the 2nd best batter in the NL to Braun when he is healthy, but he is not on pace for a hall of fame career.

BUT, anything can happen in baseball, just look at Bautista, and Votto could become 40 hr 120 rbi guy for the next 5 years and i will be dead wrong (which i hope i am). That is why baseball is the best game.

New York Red
12-19-2012, 09:46 PM
And now start the slew of sabremetric arguments that people need to go dig up and search for counter. Votto gets on base more than rice. thats his only stat that highly exceeds Rice. And as i said i wasn't looking at either of their entire careers. Just through age 28. Through age 28 Rice was a more productive player than Votto. Thats why he made more all star appearances and was in the running for MVP so much more. Joey didn't even get into the league until he was 24. That gives him 10 seasons of prime resume building before his numbers will begin to deteriorate. Through those 5 of those 10 years he is averaging less than 26 hr, and 88 rbi. If he was Eddie Murray and started doing that when he was 20 and kept it up till he was 40. Then yes he would be a shoe in for the hall. But as of right now, those numbers do not put him on pace to be a hall of famer. He is the 2nd best batter in the NL to Braun when he is healthy, but he is not on pace for a hall of fame career.

BUT, anything can happen in baseball, just look at Bautista, and Votto could become 40 hr 120 rbi guy for the next 5 years and i will be dead wrong (which i hope i am). That is why baseball is the best game.
I'm not big on sabremetrics either -- I'm more of an old school guy. But some of the numbers can't be ignored, such as WAR, OPS, etc. I don't think Joey has to become a 40-HR guy to make the HOF. When he got hurt in June, he was probably the best player in the game, despite not hitting a lot of HR. His lack of RBI were a result of not having many attempts with RISP. His AVG and OBP with RISP was outstanding, and while he wasn't hitting a lot of HR, he hit a ton of doubles and was among the league leader in XBH and TB before his injury. While old schoolers like us may not love sabremetrics, they are without a doubt going to be used more regularly when players are judged for HOF consideration.

webbbj
12-19-2012, 10:25 PM
And sabremetrics are just a much better gauge for judging a players value.

I honestly cant believe we have two threads discussing the HOF candidacy of Votto and Dunn. If they both retired right now Id take Votto over Dunn all day everyday simply b/c hes a great player and Dunn never was. Votto has had 3 seasons w/ a higher OPS than Dunns best OPS season.

New York Red
12-19-2012, 10:36 PM
And sabremetrics are just a much better gauge for judging a players value.

I honestly cant believe we have two threads discussing the HOF candidacy of Votto and Dunn. If they both retired right now Id take Votto over Dunn all day everyday simply b/c hes a great player and Dunn never was. Votto has had 3 seasons w/ a higher OPS than Dunns best OPS season.
Joey Votto is a far, far better player than Adam Dunn was at his best. Not even close.

webbbj
12-19-2012, 10:41 PM
Joey Votto is a far, far better player than Adam Dunn was at his best. Not even close.

Yet some here would argue Adam Dunn is a better HOF candidate b/c he has better counting stats in HRs and walks for his career.

texasdave
12-19-2012, 10:42 PM
And sabremetrics are just a much better gauge for judging a players value.

I honestly cant believe we have two threads discussing the HOF candidacy of Votto and Dunn. If they both retired right now Id take Votto over Dunn all day everyday simply b/c hes a great player and Dunn never was. Votto has had 3 seasons w/ a higher OPS than Dunns best OPS season.


And Joey Votto is a Gold Glove first baseman. Adam Dunn wore a glove.

Salukifan2
12-19-2012, 11:31 PM
A more accurate comparison may be between Votto and Holliday. Both entered the league when they were 24 and have very similar and excellent offensive numbers. Do people believe right now that Matt Holliday is on or very close to being on a path the HOF?

HometownHero
12-19-2012, 11:48 PM
Yes if he can keep it up for close to that long,

Salukifan2
12-20-2012, 12:40 AM
Well then i will rest my case, though i don't believe Holliday is of HOF caliber. Perhaps Pujols numbed STL fans as what it means to be great.

MoneyInTheBank
12-22-2012, 09:44 AM
Yet some here would argue Adam Dunn is a better HOF candidate b/c he has better counting stats in HRs and walks for his career.

I can only assume you are referring to me as one of "those some" and your statement is utterly ridiculous. Votto is the better player, period. Just because I say IF Adam Dunn reaches 600 HR (he's nearly 200 away), 1500 RBI (he's nearly 500 away) and 1500 BB (he's 330 away) that he should be CONSIDERED for candidacy does not mean in any way shape or form that any player who does not reach those numbers is inferior.

Krawhitham
12-22-2012, 11:34 AM
5 more years of this production hes a shoe in.

he would need more that 5 more years

drowg14
12-22-2012, 11:53 AM
he would need more that 5 more years

With they way voters tend to vote, if those 5 years resulted in at least 2 more MVPs (which is highly possible), those 5 could possibly suffice.

WDE
12-25-2012, 11:44 AM
Yes. One of the best all around hitters in the game. Plus he has a great glove at 1st.

Falcon7
12-26-2012, 12:11 AM
Long way to go, a lot can happen and most is bad, that is just baseball and life...

webbbj
12-26-2012, 09:01 AM
With they way voters tend to vote, if those 5 years resulted in at least 2 more MVPs (which is highly possible), those 5 could possibly suffice.

I agree. In regards to HOF voting I think we should focus on what a player accomplished inb their prime. Not the last 4-5 years of their careers when they are jst hanging on to what they once were.

Most players prime seasons are maybe 8-10 years. If Vottot puts up 5 more great years he will have a great career.

Fireball
12-28-2012, 04:00 PM
I voted yes on the poll, because IF Joey keeps up the same level of production for the next 10 years, then I do think he's a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame.

However, in reality, I don't think there's any way he keeps up this level of production for another 10 years. I think in 10 year, Joey will be a Todd Helton-type player, where he can hit for average and get on base a lot, but his power won't be anywhere near where it is not.

If Todd Helton a shoo-in Hall of Famer? Probably not, but he'll get consideration. I love Joey, but I'd say chances are against him being a Hall of Famer at this point.