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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #5 prospect? 2013



texasdave
12-20-2012, 10:33 AM
1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson
3) Tony Cingrani
4) Daniel Corcino


Since this got started a little later than normal, it is probably best to move things along if the voting gets out of hand on any particular poll.

klw
12-20-2012, 10:49 AM
Well this one will require a little bit of thinking before I vote.

Its between Soto, Winker and Lutz for me. I just don't remember enough about Winker from last year off the top of my head though he certainly has been talked up quite a bit the past couple of weeks.

texasdave
12-20-2012, 11:13 AM
Henry Rodriguez for me. Please and thank you. I think he will be a solid bat for a long time. This is a bird-in-the-hand vote.

Steve4192
12-20-2012, 12:29 PM
Henry Rodriguez for me. Please and thank you. I think he will be a solid bat for a long time. This is a bird-in-the-hand vote.

I'm with you.

While most people have him pegged as a career utilityman, I think he has enough bat to make up for middling defensive skills and could wind up starting eventually. He might have the best hit tool in the Reds system, is a plus base runner, and even has a little bit of pop in his bat. IMO, he will be the perfect #2 hitter to put behind Billy Hamilton and in front of Joey Votto.

Steve4192
12-20-2012, 12:55 PM
Its between Soto, Winker and Lutz for me.

Lutz doesn't do anything for me. He's got poor plate discipline, is old for his league, and has contact issues. Sure, his power is nice, but aside from that, I don't see anything from him that makes me believe he can be a starting MLB 1B/LF.

Soto is basically the right-handed version of Lutz (same age, same power, same contact/plate discipline problems), but is farther along in his development (228 games in AA/AAA versus 40 for Lutz). The only major difference between them is that Soto started out at a premium defensive position and worked his way down to 1B, while no one ever had any illusions about Lutz playing anywhere other than 1B/LF.

Winker is a stud, but he has yet to play in a full-season league. I'll take the 22 year old with a cup of coffee in the majors over the 18 year old in rookie ball.

mace
12-20-2012, 01:05 PM
Lutz doesn't do anything for me. He's got poor plate discipline, is old for his league, and has contact issues. Sure, his power is nice, but aside from that, I don't see anything from him that makes me believe he can be a starting MLB 1B/LF.

Soto is basically the right-handed version of Lutz (same age, same power, same contact/plate discipline problems), but is farther along in his development (228 games in AA/AAA versus 40 for Lutz). The only major difference between them is that Soto started out at a premium defensive position and worked his way down to 1B, while no one ever had any illusions about Lutz playing anywhere other than 1B/LF.



Of course he's old for his league. He grew up in Germany and didn't even start playing the game until around the time other players were getting scouted and drafted. That's not to gloss over his issues. He obviously needs a lot of improvement in plate discipline and defense. But at the same time, he's a terrific athlete who has performed remarkably well for his level of experience. I'm not saying that his talent makes him a premium prospect; but I do believe it makes him a guy who shouldn't be so casually dismissed on the basis of some minor-league trouble spots.

Steve4192
12-20-2012, 01:16 PM
Of course he's old for his league. He grew up in Germany and didn't even start playing the game until around the time other players were getting scouted and drafted. That's not to gloss over his issues. He obviously needs a lot of improvement in plate discipline and defense. But at the same time, he's a terrific athlete who has performed remarkably well for his level of experience. I'm not saying that his talent makes him a premium prospect; but I do believe it makes him a guy who shouldn't be so casually dismissed on the basis of some minor-league trouble spots.

Perhaps I came on a little strong.

It's not that he does nothing for me at all. It's that he does nothing for me at this spot in the rankings. He just has way too many warts for me to even consider him at the #5 spot.

HokieRed
12-20-2012, 01:43 PM
Winker, then Travieso, then, for me, it's gets real unclear.

mace
12-20-2012, 02:13 PM
Perhaps I came on a little strong.

It's not that he does nothing for me at all. It's that he does nothing for me at this spot in the rankings. He just has way too many warts for me to even consider him at the #5 spot.

Sounds reasonable.

I'm not ready to vote Lutz this high, either; but for me he's not too far off. His power and learning curve make him one of the more compelling guys in the system, in my view. Certainly one of the more intriguing hitters.

The DARK
12-20-2012, 02:14 PM
Travieso for me. I appreciate the season Winker had, but l have to defer to our first round pick for the stuff he brings to the table.

dougdirt
12-20-2012, 02:57 PM
Travieso for me. I appreciate the season Winker had, but l have to defer to our first round pick for the stuff he brings to the table.

I am with this. The Reds took Travieso well before Winker for a reason. I really don't think that two and a half months of both guys being healthy has changed that at all.

Ohayou
12-20-2012, 03:25 PM
Until I actually see the stuff, Winker gets the nod over Travieso for now.

dougdirt
12-20-2012, 03:47 PM
Until I actually see the stuff, Winker gets the nod over Travieso for now.

Go watch his draft videos.

klw
12-20-2012, 04:28 PM
Doug- What are your thoughts on Yorman these days?

dougdirt
12-20-2012, 04:50 PM
Doug- What are your thoughts on Yorman these days?

Project, but one with better tools than anyone in the system.

klw
12-20-2012, 05:22 PM
Project, but one with better tools than anyone in the system.

Any closer to putting that potential together? Seemed like the reports were getting better during the 2nd half last year.

Superdude
12-20-2012, 05:47 PM
I went Traveiso with Winker a close second. I always feel better about projecting arms just because you basically know what's there right out of the gate. Winker could probably change that if he keeps hitting at Dayton next year and shows off some more developed power.

Kc61
12-20-2012, 06:34 PM
Just to stick up for Winker.

Here's a kid who in his age 18-19 year old season played in the Pioneer League, average age 21+. No previous professional experience. Line is .338/.443/.500/.943.

And the sample is fairly large for a short season league, 275 plate appearances.

While Travieso was a higher pick, Winker was the 49th selection in the draft, so he does have a high draft choice pedigree. BA rated him the fifth best prospect in the Pioneer league. (While a different pool of players, Travieso ranked 16th in the lower level Arizona League on BA's best prospect list.)

Winker's K/BB rate was excellent, 50 Ks and 40 BBs. Further, he's a left handed hitter who had a .913 OPS against lefties.

Maybe it's just me, but I think this young man is a very exciting prospect for the Reds. I wouldn't be shocked if the Reds have him penciled in as a possible left fielder for them after Ludwick's contract ends or maybe a year after that.

dougdirt
12-20-2012, 06:42 PM
Any closer to putting that potential together? Seemed like the reports were getting better during the 2nd half last year.

Plate discipline is still a large issue for him. All of the tools in the world, but if you are swinging at bad pitches too often it won't matter how good your power and hit tools are.

Brisco
12-20-2012, 07:58 PM
I assume that Jim Coombs is not on the list because he was such an obvious first choice that it would have been a waste of electrons?

BTW... Chuck Norris intentionally walks Jim Coombs.

mth123
12-20-2012, 11:03 PM
This is where I had Didi. Going with Travieso. Winker is promising, but even though he's young for the league, hitting at Billings doesn't do much for me. It keeps a guy from being eliminated from consideration, that's about it. I give him props for hitting in an advanced league for his age, but its not enough to pass the guy who was just drafted ahead of him.

Nathan
12-21-2012, 01:46 AM
I assume that Jim Coombs is not on the list because he was such an obvious first choice that it would have been a waste of electrons?

BTW... Chuck Norris intentionally walks Jim Coombs.

Did I miss something? What's with all the Jim Coombs references and who is he?

camisadelgolf
12-21-2012, 02:08 AM
Did I miss something? What's with all the Jim Coombs references and who is he?
Long-running inside "joke". A man who supersedes fiction and is infinitely more real than Madrid.

Steve4192
12-21-2012, 08:04 AM
Did I miss something? What's with all the Jim Coombs references and who is he?

He's Bill Brasky's younger, more talented, brother.

Scrap Irony
12-21-2012, 10:19 AM
Winker, despite being young for the league, was arguably its second-best hitter.

In attempting to find comps for his performance at such a young age, you're looking at 22-year-olds. In order to find comparably aged performers with the added pedigree of first-round draftee, you're down to one or two guys.

They're studs.

Were Dayton not so close (and so in need of a good team this year, as last season's team was bad), Winker would be my pick to move through A ball this season and perhaps end the season with a cup of coffee in AA. As is, I think he'll be the top performer in the Red system, as he has power, patience, and bat control.

Travieso was a project the day they drafted him.

No Red farmhand has his offensive potential. Not even Sliding Billy.

Winker, in a landslide.

Edd Roush
12-21-2012, 11:56 AM
I also went with Winker. Hard for anyone to do better than he did last year. Travieoso next.

dougdirt
12-21-2012, 03:00 PM
Winker, despite being young for the league, was arguably its second-best hitter.

In attempting to find comps for his performance at such a young age, you're looking at 22-year-olds. In order to find comparably aged performers with the added pedigree of first-round draftee, you're down to one or two guys.

They're studs.

Were Dayton not so close (and so in need of a good team this year, as last season's team was bad), Winker would be my pick to move through A ball this season and perhaps end the season with a cup of coffee in AA. As is, I think he'll be the top performer in the Red system, as he has power, patience, and bat control.

Travieso was a project the day they drafted him.

No Red farmhand has his offensive potential. Not even Sliding Billy.

Winker, in a landslide.

Yorman has more offensive potential. Soto may. More likely to reach it? No, maybe not.

I am curious though, who were the comps you came up with? I went back through 1995 in the league and couldn't really find anyone who fit. The guys with the plate discipline had quite a bit more power at the time. There wasn't really a good one that I saw.

REDREAD
12-21-2012, 03:11 PM
Just to stick up for Winker.

Here's a kid who in his age 18-19 year old season played in the Pioneer League, average age 21+. No previous professional experience. Line is .338/.443/.500/.943.

.

That's my logic too. At this point, you can't ask for much more out of Winker.

Travieso only had 21 IP in the AZ league. Small sample size. I think Doug said he had one bad outing which skewed his stats. I believe that.

At this point, I have to go with Winker, because he better early results. Next year, Travieso might leapfrog him.

Scrap Irony
12-22-2012, 01:04 AM
Yorman has more offensive potential. Soto may. More likely to reach it? No, maybe not.

I am curious though, who were the comps you came up with? I went back through 1995 in the league and couldn't really find anyone who fit. The guys with the plate discipline had quite a bit more power at the time. There wasn't really a good one that I saw.

I had to go back much further than that. Gary Sheffield set the Pioneer League on fire in 1986, with a line of .365/.413/ .640/ 1.052 as a teenager and a 1st round draft pick. Obviously, Sheffield hit better than did Winker, but he was closer in the combination of age, production, and pedigree than any other player in the Pioneer League.

A much better comp (the closest one, IMO) showed up with our own Kalvoski Daniels (in 1982). Kal went .367/ .445/ .517/ .962 as an 18-year-old. He walked just more than he struck out in 276 ABs.

In 1978, Tom Brunansky's line looks kind of close. So do Mike Marshall's from the same year. Jack Clark's 1973 line is also kind of close. The problem with the latter two of those, however, are strike outs. Winker doesn't strike out as often nor at as high a rate.

Compare those guys' numbers to Winker's line of .338/ .443/ .500/ .943, and you should see why I'm really intrigued by the young slugger from Florida.

I should tell you that I looked at no one above the age of 18, anyone who had a BA below .325, or a BB rate below 12%. I also focused only on high draftees (first and second-rounders), but let my mind wander a bit on the Clark and Marshall comps.

Kc61
12-22-2012, 11:45 AM
I had to go back much further than that. Gary Sheffield set the Pioneer League on fire in 1986, with a line of .365/.413/ .640/ 1.052 as a teenager and a 1st round draft pick. Obviously, Sheffield hit better than did Winker, but he was closer in the combination of age, production, and pedigree than any other player in the Pioneer League.

A much better comp (the closest one, IMO) showed up with our own Kalvoski Daniels (in 1982). Kal went .367/ .445/ .517/ .962 as an 18-year-old. He walked just more than he struck out in 276 ABs.

I should tell you that I looked at no one above the age of 18, anyone who had a BA below .325, or a BB rate below 12%. I also focused only on high draftees (first and second-rounders), but let my mind wander a bit on the Clark and Marshall comps.

Kc61
12-22-2012, 11:50 AM
A much better comp (the closest one, IMO) showed up with our own Kalvoski Daniels (in 1982). Kal went .367/ .445/ .517/ .962 as an 18-year-old. He walked just more than he struck out in 276 ABs.


Kal Daniels is (hopefully) a great comp for Winker. Just looking at Kal's stats after Rookie ball, he had a bad year at age 19 in the Midwest League and then his hitting just took off.

His major league lifetime OPS was .861 with a .382 OBP and that includes some weak seasons at the end.

Kal was a very solid left handed hitter with good but not great power who hit very consistently during his main years. Corner outfielder not known for defense.

Hopefully Winker can become a hitter at Kal's level. That would be great.

Scrap Irony
12-22-2012, 12:25 PM
Daniels was a lifetime 138 OPS+ bat. (This, after he really screwed up his knee in 1989, IIRC.) He couldn't field-- nor did he particularly want to.

But if Winker comes even close Daniels offensively and is a league average RF (as he profiles to be), he'll be a stud.

For comparison's sake, Jay Bruce has been a 118 OPS+ bat for two years running.

lollipopcurve
12-22-2012, 09:00 PM
Daniels was a lifetime 138 OPS+ bat. (This, after he really screwed up his knee in 1989, IIRC.) He couldn't field-- nor did he particularly want to.

Kal Daniels is one of my favorite hitters ever. Used the whole field with a short powerful swing. Superb eye. Could have been a great one but for some injuries and a "have bat will travel" approach to things.