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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #8 prospect? 2013



texasdave
12-29-2012, 01:38 PM
1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson
3) Tony Cingrani
4) Daniel Corcino
5) Jesse Winker
6) Nick Travieso
7) Henry Rodriguez


Hope everyone had a nice Christmas as we head into the New Year. Best wishes to everyone.

Scrap Irony
12-29-2012, 02:28 PM
I'm going with Ismail Guillon, a southpaw 20-year-old with really solid peripherals last season. He's young, his scouting report (average FB, plus CH, poor CB) indicates a MOR/ BOR starter with innings eating potential, and the Reds seem to like him quite a bit. I'd like to see him add a mph or two to his fastball (as he works anywhere from 88 to 92 now) or to really improve the consistency on his curve. But he's looking like a pretty sure bet (relatively speaking) as at least a middle reliever.

Other possibilities include Dan Langfield, who's a year older and has (much) better pure stuff. Langfield needs a change-up, and the Reds have typically been able to teach at least rudimentary circle changes (or cutters) for about a decade now. That's a system strength, IMO, and could come into play here. But he's a year older and further down the system ladder, as he finished last season at Billings. On the other hand, he flashes three plus pitches (FB, CB, SL). On the other other hand, he's small-ish and may profile only as a late-inning reliever. Lots to like there.

Another option is Yorman Rodriguez. Tons of tools, questions about his patience. His patience at the plate showed solid improvement for three years, but took a massive step backward last season after being challenged with High A. Lots of K's too. That's a huge red flag-- K's in bunches with no corresponding BB's. But he's still young (21 in High A in 2013). He's the most talented of the trio most likely for this spot.

dougdirt
12-29-2012, 03:42 PM
Went with Yorman Rodriguez. High risk because of his plate discipline. But he is an incredibly high reward guy too.

HokieRed
12-29-2012, 03:57 PM
Waldrop for me, then Yorman, then Guillon.

dougdirt
12-29-2012, 03:58 PM
Waldrop for me, then Yorman, then Guillon.

Can I ask why Waldrop over Yorman? Neither guy has really had 'outstanding performance'. Waldrop performed better last year, but it wasn't by a lot, he was a year older and their tools aren't really comparable.

americanoutlaw1
12-29-2012, 04:18 PM
Rolled the dice with Yorman... Possibly based more on hope than actual belief, but it's the time of year when hope springs eternal so... What the hell

HokieRed
12-29-2012, 04:23 PM
Can I ask why Waldrop over Yorman? Neither guy has really had 'outstanding performance'. Waldrop performed better last year, but it wasn't by a lot, he was a year older and their tools aren't really comparable.

Good question. It's really just a somewhat arbitrary matter of weighing tools/upside against progress against probability of major league contribution etc. Like you, I think Yorman's the most talented position player in the system, so if I were fully convinced he'd realize his talent, I'd put him #1. What I like most about Waldrop is the improvement, which I think I rate more highly than you estimate it. He made massive improvement in his K/BB ratio, going from 65K/10W at Billings in 2011 to 77K's/38 W in 2012 at Dayton--that's from 6.5 to 1 to 2 to 1. His K's went down from 1 in 4 to 1 in 6 PA. There was also steady improvement from month to month in his stats last year. OPS, for instance: May .687, June, .733, July, .827, August, .819. His birthday's late, November 26, 1991, so last year was really only his 20 year old season. So I see a substantially improving player who is going to be a 21 year old this year at High A. This puts him ahead, for me, of guys like Lutz, Vidal, Wright, maybe even Henry R., though I like all those guys well enough too. But if Yorman starts to put it together more, then obviously he goes higher.

Red Swagger
12-29-2012, 05:58 PM
I wanted to add Drew Cisco to the prospect list, I am expecting a HUGE year for Drew

Red Daddy
12-29-2012, 07:18 PM
What's up with Lotzkar? Did he get injured again?

Steve4192
12-29-2012, 07:38 PM
I want to rank Yorman here based on potential, but at some point you have to accept that he will likely never realize his potential due to his atrocious strikezone management (15 BB & 100 K in 371 PA this year). Aside from a couple of glorious months in the Pioneer league back in 2010, Rodriguez has been completely underwhelming.

I ended up going with Guillon because he is a big bodied lefty who misses bats and seems to have some idea of how to play the game. The only other guys I considered were Soto (due to his proximity to the majors) and Barnhardt (due to his high floor). I'll probably vote Soto at #9 in the hopes that he puts up a monster first half and gets flipped by Walt for a useful major leaguer, then Rodriguez at #10 assuming he is still around.

19braves77
12-29-2012, 07:51 PM
Thing is with Yorman he probably gets 3 more years of failure where someone like Gullion has to do everything just right without injury to reach his ceiling of a number 3 starter. So I voted Yorman.

thatcoolguy_22
12-29-2012, 09:30 PM
I went with Soto. His BB% went up and K% down. His OBP was 70 points higher than his BA and he still has pop. Getting a little long in the tooth for prospect status, but I see a huge year in AAA and a couple call-ups in 13.

Superdude
12-29-2012, 10:17 PM
I want to rank Yorman here based on potential, but at some point you have to accept that he will likely never realize his potential due to his atrocious strikezone management (15 BB & 100 K in 371 PA this year). Aside from a couple of glorious months in the Pioneer league back in 2010, Rodriguez has been completely underwhelming.

I agree with this basically. No reason for him not to be demonstrating at least some of that talent at this point other than the simple fact that he doesn't have it. Not writing him off, but I'm not expecting anything either.

mth123
12-29-2012, 10:51 PM
I went with Soto. His BB% went up and K% down. His OBP was 70 points higher than his BA and he still has pop. Getting a little long in the tooth for prospect status, but I see a huge year in AAA and a couple call-ups in 13.

Soto won't be 24 until February. A good year at AAA puts him on the map again. He has a chance to be up more quickly than Frazier, Cozart and many others.

Steve4192
12-29-2012, 10:59 PM
Soto won't be 24 until February. A good year at AAA puts him on the map again. He has a chance to be up more quickly than Frazier, Cozart and many others.

Yep.

I was a big fan of Soto back when there was some hope he might play SS/3B. Now that it looks like he isn't capable of playing any position well, I am less enthusiastic. Hopefully, he'll put up monster numbers the second time through AAA and fool some rival GM into believing he can be their long-term solution at 1B, netting the Reds a nice little return in a deadline trade.

Superdude
12-30-2012, 12:01 AM
Yep.

I was a big fan of Soto back when there was some hope he might play SS/3B. Now that it looks like he isn't capable of playing any position well, I am less enthusiastic. Hopefully, he'll put up monster numbers the second time through AAA and fool some rival GM into believing he can be their long-term solution at 1B, netting the Reds a nice little return in a deadline trade.

The funny thing is he still looks really athletic, but every report makes his speed sound like a late career Sean Casey. I still think he has some scary bat speed, but as a liability everywhere but first base and some plate discipline concerns, I don't know how much value he has at this point.

Scrap Irony
12-30-2012, 02:10 AM
If Soto can go .270/ .340/ .560 in AAA, he'd be in line to become a solid regular starter at age 24. He'd by no means be old for AAA or prospect status.

Kc61
12-30-2012, 01:58 PM
These polls (including my own votes) are heavily influenced by last year's stats. Presumably, Reds scouts and FO have more sophisticated ways of measuring a prospect's status.

Soto was 23 years old in AAA last season. He played on a weak team and his numbers weren't that great

But he could easily OPS .900 next season at AAA with a bit more experience and hopefully a better surrounding offensive cast.

I'll probably vote for Soto soon, but he could be a top five prospect in this system. He's a near major league ready power hitter with defensive limitations. We'll know much more in another year.

j_m_t_us
12-30-2012, 04:09 PM
Thing is with Yorman he probably gets 3 more years of failure where someone like Gullion has to do everything just right without injury to reach his ceiling of a number 3 starter. So I voted Yorman.

Stats over 4 years are pretty mediocre! I doubt he will get 3 more years.

americanoutlaw1
12-30-2012, 06:02 PM
Within a few years i can see Soto putting up numbers comparable to Mark Trumbo. 25-30 homers hittting between 260-270. Low OBP above average slugging and no real defensive home or value like Trumbo. He may wind up a little closer to Trumbo's 2011 than 2012 but seems entirely possible to me

Scrap Irony
12-30-2012, 11:31 PM
Odd that, for the most part, there haven't been many close votes so far.

I expected many more detailed explanations than what's happened.

Is that because we're all pretty much just guessing, because the Red minor league system currently sucks, or because almost everyone is simply following suit in agreement?

americanoutlaw1
12-31-2012, 12:39 AM
I have agreed with literally every pick so far and haven't felt the need to justify my choice, until here when I chose Yorman. I was actually surprised how "close" the first two votes were- and thats saying something considering they each won by something like an 80% margin. But i think the minimal discussion and explanations are due in large part to the fact that the top 6 are pretty distinct and i think generally accepted, with Travieso and Winker being pretty interchangable. These next 15 or so should begin to get fairly interesting and I fully expect the victory margins to shrink considerably while the discussion as to who chose who and why becomes more prevelant.

camisadelgolf
12-31-2012, 04:31 AM
I disagree quite a bit with the Henry Rodriguez pick. I like him as a prospect and think he can become very serviceable, but I expect a higher ceiling out of a top-10 prospect.

Scrap Irony
12-31-2012, 05:12 AM
I disagree quite a bit with the Henry Rodriguez pick. I like him as a prospect and think he can become very serviceable, but I expect a higher ceiling out of a top-10 prospect.

I see Rodriguez as a fairly dependable performer with a plus hit tool ("legitimate bat" according to John Sickels), but questions about his work ethic/ head and defense. Before the hand injury, Rodriguez once again was killing the ball. After the hand injury, you really have to take his numbers with a grain of salt. A lifetime minor league slash line of .303/ .350/ .431 with all peripherals going the right direction (ie, better BA, more power, better patience) until a hand injury that truncated his last season? A 22-year-old going for a .350 BA in an offense-sapping AA league and home park? Versatility that means he can play three spots on the infield? Switch-hitter? Solid approach at the plate with few Ks?

There's an awful lot to like there.

The questions on Rodriguez are make-up related, not ceiling. He needs to get in better shape. He needs to take the game more seriously. He needs to put as much effort into defense as he puts into offense.

If he can do those things, he'll most likely be a Placido Polanco for the Reds-- early career utility guy capable of giving you innings at multiple positions while hitting around league average as he matures and receives playing time. He might give you a couple All Star berths, as Polanco did for Detroit and Philadelphia. He might even go all Bill Madlock (the minor league numbers are similar) at his ceiling. And his floor is as a Miguel Cairo clone.

mth123
12-31-2012, 10:06 AM
I see Rodriguez as a fairly dependable performer with a plus hit tool ("legitimate bat" according to John Sickels), but questions about his work ethic/ head and defense. Before the hand injury, Rodriguez once again was killing the ball. After the hand injury, you really have to take his numbers with a grain of salt. A lifetime minor league slash line of .303/ .350/ .431 with all peripherals going the right direction (ie, better BA, more power, better patience) until a hand injury that truncated his last season? A 22-year-old going for a .350 BA in an offense-sapping AA league and home park? Versatility that means he can play three spots on the infield? Switch-hitter? Solid approach at the plate with few Ks?

There's an awful lot to like there.

The questions on Rodriguez are make-up related, not ceiling. He needs to get in better shape. He needs to take the game more seriously. He needs to put as much effort into defense as he puts into offense.

If he can do those things, he'll most likely be a Placido Polanco for the Reds-- early career utility guy capable of giving you innings at multiple positions while hitting around league average as he matures and receives playing time. He might give you a couple All Star berths, as Polanco did for Detroit and Philadelphia. He might even go all Bill Madlock (the minor league numbers are similar) at his ceiling. And his floor is as a Miguel Cairo clone.

Not a bad analysis. I was thinking more like Johnny Ray as a best case but I get a D'Angelo Jimenez vibe from H-Rod and his .600ish OPS at AAA so far is enough to drop him down to the 10 to 15 range for me.

I had Guillon at 7 and would probably go with Soto, Lutz, Chad Rogers and maybe Y-Rod ahead of H-Rod though I'm not sure of the order. I need more info on some of the younger pitchers like Cisco, Romano, Langfield and Magurian. If I knew more, those guys might be the next guys in line.

mdccclxix
12-31-2012, 11:00 AM
These polls (including my own votes) are heavily influenced by last year's stats. Presumably, Reds scouts and FO have more sophisticated ways of measuring a prospect's status.

Soto was 23 years old in AAA last season. He played on a weak team and his numbers weren't that great

But he could easily OPS .900 next season at AAA with a bit more experience and hopefully a better surrounding offensive cast.

I'll probably vote for Soto soon, but he could be a top five prospect in this system. He's a near major league ready power hitter with defensive limitations. We'll know much more in another year.

His 2012 was a lot like his 2010, minus some power, which LOU is said to sapp. He still had 30 doubles, too. Not sure I'm sold on Soto. He'd need a break with the Astros or somewhere like that.

I stayed with SMB, but really also liked Dan Langfield and Donald Lutz. I think Lutz probably deserves it more on record, but I like SMB's great athleticism and the fact he's at 3b. FWIW, it seems the Reds are high on Lutz and I think he gets the Juan Francisco treatment - an earlier callup than expected.

mdccclxix
12-31-2012, 11:06 AM
I disagree quite a bit with the Henry Rodriguez pick. I like him as a prospect and think he can become very serviceable, but I expect a higher ceiling out of a top-10 prospect.

I looked back over his history and he's hit everywhere for average, and even some power. I am not a believer in the power playing up for a while, if at all, and think that unless he's rock solid at 3b he'll struggle to get enough ab's. Nonetheless, if the hit tool is real, there's got to be room for a .300 hitter on a mlb roster, I just don't know if it's with the Reds. In some sense, you can see the Reds keeping him in AAA through 2014 like they did with Frazier just for depth.

chicoruiz
12-31-2012, 11:07 AM
I was thinking more like Johnny Ray as a best case but I get a D'Angelo Jimenez vibe from H-Rod and his .600ish OPS at AAA

I was thinking his upside might be Jeff Keppinger-ish if he has his head on straight.

Steve4192
12-31-2012, 12:28 PM
I looked back over his history and he's hit everywhere for average, and even some power. I am not a believer in the power playing up for a while, if at all, and think that unless he's rock solid at 3b he'll struggle to get enough ab's. Nonetheless, if the hit tool is real, there's got to be room for a .300 hitter on a mlb roster, I just don't know if it's with the Reds. In some sense, you can see the Reds keeping him in AAA through 2014 like they did with Frazier just for depth.

He also plays an adequate 2B, which doubles his chances of getting playing time. All it takes is one injury.

Benihana
01-02-2013, 06:44 PM
Guillon then Y-Rod for me.