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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #9 prospect? 2013



texasdave
01-01-2013, 12:48 PM
1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson
3) Tony Cingrani
4) Daniel Corcino
5) Jesse Winker
6) Nick Travieso
7) Henry Rodriguez
8) Ismael Guillon

Still going with the highest ceiling here. Not very confident Yorman will reach it.

dougdirt
01-01-2013, 12:58 PM
Also going with Yorman here. Unmatched tools. Just 20. Needs to figure out how to hone in the strikezone though.

757690
01-01-2013, 01:06 PM
I'm going with Lutz.

I think the most important tool is the hit tool, and he has the best of the remaining prospects. I'm basically anti-Bowden on prospects, lol.

dougdirt
01-01-2013, 01:24 PM
I'm going with Lutz.

I think the most important tool is the hit tool, and he has the best of the remaining prospects. I'm basically anti-Bowden on prospects, lol.

Lutz just hit .269 this year in two hitter friendly parks. In terms of pure hit tool, he probably isn't close to having the best one left. Best pure power left? Maybe. Soto could claim that one.

I don't know, just a bit early for Lutz for me. I don't know that he is a left fielder and if he isn't, he is a first baseman. As a first baseman, his bat doesn't really do much for me.

HokieRed
01-01-2013, 01:41 PM
Still going Waldrop though I thought about going with Yorman just because Waldrop has no chance yet here. I've got both ahead of Lutz or Soto.

757690
01-01-2013, 02:10 PM
Lutz just hit .269 this year in two hitter friendly parks. In terms of pure hit tool, he probably isn't close to having the best one left. Best pure power left? Maybe. Soto could claim that one.

I don't know, just a bit early for Lutz for me. I don't know that he is a left fielder and if he isn't, he is a first baseman. As a first baseman, his bat doesn't really do much for me.

You're right. I meant best overall hitter. And to be honest, he might not even the best at that, he's just the best of the ones I know. Curiously, who would you have ahead of Lutz as a hitter?

I just think that when it comes to predicting who will be productive in the majors, those that can hit stick longer than those that have those other tools. That's why I hate the term five tool. Most of the guys aren't true five tools players, they are three or four tool players who need to learn how to hit. And if they don't learn how to hit, they are rather useless as a major leaguer.

mth123
01-01-2013, 02:31 PM
We've already crossed the line from Prospects to Suspects IMO. Going with Yorman based on tools. A couple of years ago, all these guys would be in the 20s or higher.

dougdirt
01-01-2013, 02:49 PM
You're right. I meant best overall hitter. And to be honest, he might not even the best at that, he's just the best of the ones I know. Curiously, who would you have ahead of Lutz as a hitter?

I just think that when it comes to predicting who will be productive in the majors, those that can hit stick longer than those that have those other tools. That's why I hate the term five tool. Most of the guys aren't true five tools players, they are three or four tool players who need to learn how to hit. And if they don't learn how to hit, they are rather useless as a major leaguer.

Lutz isn't on my list until the 20's. I can't simply look at things in terms of pure hitting because Lutz is going to have to hit a whole lot more than nearly everyone else because he is limited to the two easiest positions on the field to play and he may not even stick at one of them.

mace
01-01-2013, 03:27 PM
Also going with Yorman here. Unmatched tools. Just 20. Needs to figure out how to hone in the strikezone though.

From what I've gathered, Yorman might need to figure out a lot more than that. He might need to figure out how to commit himself to his craft; how to grind out a season; how to work with his coaches; how to play hard; how to be a good teammate; how to play a proper outfield. In spite of his tools, he may have a long, long way to go--longer, perhaps, than even a guy who grew up in Germany. I'm going with Lutz.

lollipopcurve
01-01-2013, 03:51 PM
Lutz, then Yorman.

Lutz was hitting well last year, then had the oblique injury. Came back very strong in the Arizona Fall League. I've been voting him since about #5 -- like him more than most. His ability to play LF is a question, but he's pretty athletic, can run OK, and LF in GABP is playable for lesser defenders.

Steve4192
01-01-2013, 03:55 PM
We've already crossed the line from Prospects to Suspects IMO.

Agreed.

At this point, I'm just picking the guys who have a good chance of contributing to the big league club. Rodriguez is pyrite as far as I am concerned. I went with Soto because I figure he is a good first half away from being a valuable trading chip.

Steve4192
01-01-2013, 04:09 PM
From what I've gathered, Yorman might need to figure out a lot more than that. He might need to figure out how to commit himself to his craft; how to grind out a season; how to work with his coaches; how to play hard; how to be a good teammate; how to play a proper outfield. In spite of his tools, he may have a long, long way to go

Agreed.

He is a poor man's Wily Mo Pena. All the athletic gifts in the world and very few actual baseball skills. Honestly, I would be surprised if he comes anywhere near matching Wily Mo's career. At least Wily Mo provided value as a trading chip for Bronson Arroyo.

dougdirt
01-01-2013, 04:41 PM
From what I've gathered, Yorman might need to figure out a lot more than that. He might need to figure out how to commit himself to his craft; how to grind out a season; how to work with his coaches; how to play hard; how to be a good teammate; how to play a proper outfield. In spite of his tools, he may have a long, long way to go--longer, perhaps, than even a guy who grew up in Germany. I'm going with Lutz.

Your information sounds like it was from 2010 rather than 2012.

Ohayou
01-01-2013, 05:01 PM
Going with Lutz here. Yes, Rodriguez and Soto are intriguing prospects and yes, they're both still young, but there's just no way in hell a guy hitting a career .259/.303/.685 makes my Top 10...

dougdirt
01-01-2013, 05:04 PM
Going with Lutz here. Yes, Rodriguez and Soto are intriguing prospects and yes, they're both still young, but there's just no way in hell a guy hitting a career .259/.303/.685 makes my Top 10...

Soto isn't exactly young. Neither is Lutz. They aren't old, but they aren't young. Soto and Lutz shouldn't sniff this top 10. Corner players who at age 23 have multiple questions about their bats?

Red Daddy
01-01-2013, 05:16 PM
I like Wright better than YRod or Lutz. Also like Chad Rogers and Gelalich better too.

Ohayou
01-01-2013, 05:20 PM
Soto isn't exactly young. Neither is Lutz. They aren't old, but they aren't young. Soto and Lutz shouldn't sniff this top 10. Corner players who at age 23 have multiple questions about their bats?

Seriously? He'll be 24 next month. I'm sure the median age for AAA players is a lot higher than that...

...and while Soto and Lutz may have questionable bats, Rodriguez is just on an entirely different level of suckage ATM.

americanoutlaw1
01-01-2013, 05:24 PM
I don't get the love for Lutz. If we're going to elect someone based off power and no defensive value, Soto should be the first one off the board I would think

dougdirt
01-01-2013, 05:27 PM
Seriously? He'll be 24 next month. I'm sure the median age for AAA players is a lot higher than that...

...and while Soto and Lutz may have questionable bats, Rodriguez is just on an entirely different level of suckage ATM.

Sure. Player. But not prospect. Most long term Major Leaguers are in the Majors by age 24.

Yorman needs to be more selective. But he also isn't a guy who is defensively limited to the extreme right side of the spectrum. Right now, he can still play center field. He may eventually grow out of it and find himself limited to right, which dings his damage. But Soto is absolutely limited to first base. Lutz has a chance to play left, though he has plenty of work to do out there still before he can stick. If he can't do that, he has to play first. That makes him a bench player because his bat isn't good enough to start at first base.

Yorman has more work to do, but he is 4 years younger and has a lot more wiggle room in his development.

americanoutlaw1
01-01-2013, 05:40 PM
As an 18 and 19 year old with almost a combined full season of games in Dayton, Yorman has hit over 260 with 13 homers and 27 steals... Yes he struggled in Bakersfield, and yes he isn't Bryce Harper and yes those numbers aren't off the charts... But that is not a whole different level of "suckage". He held his own in low A as a teenager for 2 years, and now he is going to get to go back to the hitters haven that is the Cali league as a 20 year old... I think he gets a bad rap cuz of the high expectations that accompany him that he isn't living up to yet. It could get brutal as he flares helplessly at sliders in the dirt and chin high heaters- I'll grant you that... But it could just as easily get epic. His tools are all there, and he is about the only one on the list who could crack top prospect status in the game by the time it's all over. I'm still taking him here

RedsManRick
01-01-2013, 05:40 PM
Also going with Yorman here. Unmatched tools. Just 20. Needs to figure out how to hone in the strikezone though.

BP did an informal survey a while back (think it was Kevin Goldstein) which basically tried to find a guy who had a ton of tools but who was just really raw and who then turned in to a very good player. To many people's surprise, they couldn't find anybody.

Anyways, I prefer somebody who's shown more tools, even at 20. He not only has strikezone issues but contact issues. There's a long history of guys who could run, throw and hit for power but never turned into very good baseball players.

Ohayou
01-01-2013, 05:40 PM
Sure. Player. But not prospect. Most long term Major Leaguers are in the Majors by age 24.

Yorman needs to be more selective. But he also isn't a guy who is defensively limited to the extreme right side of the spectrum. Right now, he can still play center field. He may eventually grow out of it and find himself limited to right, which dings his damage. But Soto is absolutely limited to first base. Lutz has a chance to play left, though he has plenty of work to do out there still before he can stick. If he can't do that, he has to play first. That makes him a bench player because his bat isn't good enough to start at first base.

Yorman has more work to do, but he is 4 years younger and has a lot more wiggle room in his development.

Hanigan, Cozart, Frazier, Heisey - that's most of our team. Lol...age isn't as important to me as it is to you, obviously. But don't worry, I hate Soto as a prospect almost as much as Rodriguez. Lutz I think can put it together, whether it's with the Reds or some other club.

Steve4192
01-01-2013, 05:55 PM
I don't get the love for Lutz. If we're going to elect someone based off power and no defensive value, Soto should be the first one off the board I would think

Agreed.

Soto is the same age, closer to the majors, and had a monster year as a 22 year old in AA back in 2011. Lutz has a had a couple of solid years as an old guy playing in single-A, but hasn't put together anything like Soto's 2011 breakout season. Lutz will be 24 years old on opening day and has yet to do anything of note in the high minors.

Steve4192
01-01-2013, 06:01 PM
As an 18 and 19 year old with almost a combined full season of games in Dayton, Yorman has hit over 260 with 13 homers and 27 steals... Yes he struggled in Bakersfield, and yes he isn't Bryce Harper and yes those numbers aren't off the charts... But that is not a whole different level of "suckage". He held his own in low A as a teenager for 2 years, and now he is going to get to go back to the hitters haven that is the Cali league as a 20 year old.

A low 700s OPS isn't exactly getting it done, and this was his second year at that level without any marked improvement. In fact, his plate discipline appeared to get worse, and was flat-out terrible after his promotion (3 BB, 39K in 94 PA at Bakersfield). I wouldn't be surprised if they sent him back to Dayton again after that egg he laid in the California league.

dougdirt
01-01-2013, 06:10 PM
BP did an informal survey a while back (think it was Kevin Goldstein) which basically tried to find a guy who had a ton of tools but who was just really raw and who then turned in to a very good player. To many people's surprise, they couldn't find anybody.

Anyways, I prefer somebody who's shown more tools, even at 20. He not only has strikezone issues but contact issues. There's a long history of guys who could run, throw and hit for power but never turned into very good baseball players.

At some point, everyone is raw. One problem with guys like Yorman is that because of their ability to sign at such a young age, they aren't really put on the same plan as others. Most guys his age were drafted just last year. How would his "rawness" look if he was in the Arizona League last year and Billings this past season? It is a tough thing and I often wonder if the aggressive promotion of guys like him, who have tools but not always the best eye at the plate, isn't extremely detrimental to them.

As for the "raw" to something category, the first two guys who jumped to mind were Sammy Sosa and Randy Johnson. More recently: Jose Bautista (I know, clearly different problems than Yorman has, but he went from a guy who had some tools he couldn't use to one of the best hitters in the league).

mth123
01-01-2013, 06:15 PM
Agreed.

Soto is the same age, closer to the majors, and had a monster year as a 22 year old in AA back in 2011. Lutz has a had a couple of solid years as an old guy playing in single-A, but hasn't put together anything like Soto's 2011 breakout season. Lutz will be 24 years old on opening day and has yet to do anything of note in the high minors.

That's true, but being from Germany may give Lutz more room to develop IMO. His baseball age is a lot lower than Soto's. Soto has probably already developped as much as he will. Lutz seems to have the experience of a typical high school kid.

Still, they and everyone outside of the top 4 or 5 are suspects. Honestly, if we had more info, we should probably be debating between Cisco, Langfield and Romano here, but I can't vote for guys without some more info. I hope that's true anyway or the cupboard may be bare (or only 2 or 3 deep) by next year at this time.

Kc61
01-01-2013, 06:20 PM
I've read that Yorman is likely to wind up as a corner outfielder but has potential to be a very good one defensively. He apparently has an excellent throwing arm.

I voted for Yorman given his age and potential.

RedsManRick
01-01-2013, 06:52 PM
At some point, everyone is raw. One problem with guys like Yorman is that because of their ability to sign at such a young age, they aren't really put on the same plan as others. Most guys his age were drafted just last year. How would his "rawness" look if he was in the Arizona League last year and Billings this past season? It is a tough thing and I often wonder if the aggressive promotion of guys like him, who have tools but not always the best eye at the plate, isn't extremely detrimental to them.

As for the "raw" to something category, the first two guys who jumped to mind were Sammy Sosa and Randy Johnson. More recently: Jose Bautista (I know, clearly different problems than Yorman has, but he went from a guy who had some tools he couldn't use to one of the best hitters in the league).

Notably, if he were to follow their path, Rodriguez is 7 or 8 years and an organization or two off from the breakthrough those guys had.

mace
01-01-2013, 07:32 PM
Your information sounds like it was from 2010 rather than 2012.

I did read that Yorman had improved his attitude this year, and if he has gotten on track in those areas it's indeed a very good sign. But his turnaround has been reported in softer terms than his original attitude issues. I guess I need to be a little more convinced that he has acquired the makeup to succeed.

marcshoe
01-01-2013, 08:21 PM
I went with Soto, but this is getting tough. I like Lotzkar's strikeouts but not his walks. Cisco might be a good bet. I want to vote for Yorman, but I'm growing increasingly skeptical.

In the end, I'll go with Soto's power, but I'd love to see Rahier or Yorman put together a really good season.

757690
01-01-2013, 08:34 PM
I don't get the love for Lutz. If we're going to elect someone based off power and no defensive value, Soto should be the first one off the board I would think

I'm simply going on what I have seen. Soto's swing and approach appears flawed to me. Lutz's problems seem to arise more from inexperience. I just like his swing better. But that is all from observation, and I'm no expert.

camisadelgolf
01-01-2013, 08:56 PM
I'm simply going on what I have seen. Soto's swing and approach appears flawed to me. Lutz's problems seem to arise more from inexperience. I just like his swing better. But that is all from observation, and I'm no expert.
It's interesting to me that you like Lutz' swing when scouts tell me that's the thing they don't like about him. It's "awkward".

Scrap Irony
01-01-2013, 09:22 PM
I went in another direction and picked Dan Langfield.

I like his plus fastball, slider, and curve combination and the system's ability to teach a better change up. Even if he can't find the feel for the change, he could become a Nick Massett or JJ Hoover type in the bullpen.

His K rate and K/BB rate were both outstanding in the Pioneer League. He was in the Top Ten of prospect pitchers (age 21 and under) in WHIP (8), H/9 IP (3), K (9), K/ 9 IP (4), K/BB ratio (10), ERA (6), among others.

Langfield's a bit older than he needs to be in the lower levels of the minor league feeder system. He's also had a history of struggling with command and his 4.1 BB/ 9 IP needs work. He's a bit undersized for a starter.

But, overall, Lanfield is a very intriguing prospect that likely deserves a top ten spot in a questionable Red minor league system.

757690
01-01-2013, 09:29 PM
It's interesting to me that you like Lutz' swing when scouts tell me that's the thing they don't like about him. It's "awkward".

Like I said, I'm no expert, lol.

However, getting back to a point mth123 made, Lutz has only been playing baseball for a few years. I would expect his swing to be awkward. There's a big difference between an awkward swing and a swing with a hole in it. Todd Frazier has an awkward swing. Wily Mo Pena had a swing with a hole in it.

Steve4192
01-01-2013, 09:55 PM
I honestly don't see much difference between Rodriguez and fellow bonus baby Juan Duran. Duran was actually quite a bit better than Rodriguez when he went through Dayton as a 19 year old. They are both toolsy physical specimens who have precious few baseball-related skills. They get by on their freakish natural gifts and not much else. The only thing that used to separate them was that Rodriguez was thought to be an up-the-middle player. Now that he is profiling as a corner outfielder, I don't see any difference between them.

All the 'potential' in the world doesn't mean squat if they can't make it to the majors. I'll take a high-floor / low ceiling guy all day over guys who are unlikely to even make it to the majors, no matter how much natural talent they have.

OGB
01-01-2013, 11:20 PM
Soto isn't exactly young. Neither is Lutz. They aren't old, but they aren't young. Soto and Lutz shouldn't sniff this top 10. Corner players who at age 23 have multiple questions about their bats?

I've got to agree for this reason. I don't see either of these guys being good enough to even be on a big league roster for a year plus, and that's a questionable time frame.

dougdirt
01-02-2013, 12:27 AM
I honestly don't see much difference between Rodriguez and fellow bonus baby Juan Duran. Duran was actually quite a bit better than Rodriguez when he went through Dayton as a 19 year old. They are both toolsy physical specimens who have precious few baseball-related skills. They get by on their freakish natural gifts and not much else. The only thing that used to separate them was that Rodriguez was thought to be an up-the-middle player. Now that he is profiling as a corner outfielder, I don't see any difference between them.

All the 'potential' in the world doesn't mean squat if they can't make it to the majors. I'll take a high-floor / low ceiling guy all day over guys who are unlikely to even make it to the majors, no matter how much natural talent they have.
Yorman struggles to make contact. Compared to Duran, he is Wade Boggs at making contact. Yorman is a good fielder. Duran is a DH who plays the field. Aside from signing in the same year, they aren't really comparable at all.

chicoruiz
01-02-2013, 07:56 AM
In the absence of anyone jumping out at me, I made a hunch selection of LaMarre. Don't ask me to defend it...

mdccclxix
01-02-2013, 10:04 AM
Seth Mejias-Brean had 2 hr in college, then he hit 8 last year in Billings. He has always had batting practice power that amazed his AZ teammates, but the game power wasn't there because of loft. He's a all around athlete as a basketball/football star in HS. Scouts see him as a C. At 3b his defense needs work, but the arm isn't a question. It looks to me like this is a guy that's going to have the ability to adjust and move quickly. I rank him higher than Vidal, Rahier, Rosa and other 3b in the system, perhaps even Rodriguez, because he's going to be bigger and stronger than most and it appears his plate discipline will not be a problem.

mdccclxix
01-02-2013, 10:07 AM
I'll say this, if Yorman has half of what Doug says he has, there could be some fireworks in California this year. Does he have anyone specific as a mentor?

REDblooded
01-03-2013, 01:05 AM
Convincing work Doug... Went with Yorman.

Mario-Rijo
01-03-2013, 09:18 AM
I like Rahier, my guess is he will turn out much the same mold of player Frazier has.

Superdude
01-03-2013, 10:24 AM
I like Rahier, my guess is he will turn out much the same mold of player Frazier has.

I don't know if I take him here or not, but he's definitely been lost in the shuffle IMO. He was just as well regarded as Winker was around draft time. Obviously didn't perform as well, but nothing in his numbers really jumps out as "problematic" going forward.

Scrap Irony
01-03-2013, 10:41 AM
I like Rahier quite a bit, but he's got a long way to go. I think he'll hit well in 2013 with Billings.

If he does, I expect he'll move up quite a bit next off-season in these rankings.

In fact, speaking of next off-season, if Red minor leaguers do as they should, I suspect there will be quite a few within the Top 100 list. Hamilton nor Corcino are ticketed to stick in Cincinnati this season. Cingrani could be there-- or he could pitch in AAA for the entire season. Winker and Stephenson are going to move up should they play in Dayton as they did in Billings. (Hitting like he did in Billings in Dayton might even move Winker into the Top 25; pitching as he did last season will move Stephenson there.)

The only two prospects that may move up this season are Henry Rodriguez and Cingrani. And neither is a lock.

The entire Top Ten could be back in 2014.

When was the last time that happened?

dougdirt
01-03-2013, 11:13 AM
^If there are no major injuries at least^

*BaseClogger*
01-03-2013, 05:05 PM
That's what happens when you have a really good MLB team...

The DARK
01-03-2013, 08:40 PM
Rahler. Biggest upside and best reports of any of the remaining draftees, who I tend to like better than most of the guys currently in the system.

Scrap Irony
01-03-2013, 09:38 PM
^If there are no major injuries at least^

Yep, understood.

That's the "could."