PDA

View Full Version : Reds roster in 2016



RedsfaninMT
01-15-2013, 08:08 PM
In what is not protected material from Baseball America, it is interesting to see that their 2016 lineup has the Choo in LF with Hamilton in CF. I think they are a little off to me to have 1. Cueto 2. Chapman 3. Latos 4. Stephenson 5. Bailey with Corcino as the closer. IF Latos is still here, I would bet he would be #1.

Imagine that lineup though:
1. Hamilton
2. Choo
3. Votto
4. Bruce
5. Mesoraco
6. B.P.
7. Frazier
8. Cozart

I know, too many lefties in a row, but can't see B.P. hitting much higher 4 years from now. Also would guess that somebody else might supplant Frazier at 3B.

Red Swagger
01-15-2013, 08:18 PM
The key is Mesoraco. If he can hit for power and average, our line up would be set for the future, slot him in the 4 spot.

B Hamilton
Choo
Votto
Mesoraco
Bruce
Phillips
Frazier
Cozart

This could potentially be our 2014 line up, depends on Luddy and Mes.
I would love to extend Choo, but a few things must go our way. Mesoraco clicking and reaching his potential would be HUGE

Vottomatic
01-17-2013, 06:16 PM
Mesoraco reminds me of Stubbs at the plate. Completely has no plan at the plate. Seems to not recognize pitches. Swings at pitches out of the K zone. Undisciplined.

For a catcher to not be able to recognize pitches when he's hitting is almost impossible to do. But he seems clueless at times.

dougdirt
01-17-2013, 07:22 PM
Mesoraco reminds me of Stubbs at the plate. Completely has no plan at the plate. Seems to not recognize pitches. Swings at pitches out of the K zone. Undisciplined.

For a catcher to not be able to recognize pitches when he's hitting is almost impossible to do. But he seems clueless at times.

Confirmation bias says hello.

Last season Drew Stubbs swung outside the zone 3rd least amount on the team and was grouped well with Ryan Hanigan and Joey Votto before a gap to get to the next guy.

Mesoraco wasn't good, but he wasn't bad either. He was right there with Cozart (Mesoraco was 5th, Cozart 6th).

Check out the leaderboard (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=15&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=18&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0). Phillips was atrocious. Todd Frazier wasn't good at all either.

cjtenn28
01-17-2013, 09:25 PM
Any chance Travieso cracks the 2016 staff?

Vottomatic
01-18-2013, 11:34 AM
Confirmation bias says hello.

Last season Drew Stubbs swung outside the zone 3rd least amount on the team and was grouped well with Ryan Hanigan and Joey Votto before a gap to get to the next guy.

Mesoraco wasn't good, but he wasn't bad either. He was right there with Cozart (Mesoraco was 5th, Cozart 6th).

Check out the leaderboard (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=15&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=18&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0). Phillips was atrocious. Todd Frazier wasn't good at all either.

My eyes tell me more than the stats do.

Mez is going to be a backup catcher most of his career. Just my opinion.

dougdirt
01-18-2013, 12:51 PM
My eyes tell me more than the stats do.

Mez is going to be a backup catcher most of his career. Just my opinion.

Your eyes are clearly lying to you then, as shown with actual numerical evidence. Sure, maybe neither guy "has a plan at the plate", but neither guy is chasing pitches outside the zone at some high rate compared to other guys.

Vottomatic
01-18-2013, 12:59 PM
Your eyes are clearly lying to you then, as shown with actual numerical evidence. Sure, maybe neither guy "has a plan at the plate", but neither guy is chasing pitches outside the zone at some high rate compared to other guys.

My eyes "are clearly lying to you then"???? Pretty insulting.

I'll take my eyes over your over reliance on stats any day of the week.

Please learn to just agree to disagree. And respect others opinions. You seem to have to be right all the time and it's annoying.

dougdirt
01-18-2013, 01:48 PM
My eyes "are clearly lying to you then"???? Pretty insulting.

I'll take my eyes over your over reliance on stats any day of the week.

Please learn to just agree to disagree. And respect others opinions. You seem to have to be right all the time and it's annoying.

When your eyes tell you that guys chase pitches out of the zone all of the time and the data says that they don't, I am not going to just say "agree to disagree". Grass isn't purple, even if you say it is and people aren't going to just say "oh we are going to have to agree to disagree on that" if you say it.

I am not trying to be insulting. I am trying to show you that you are incorrect in something you said. There is a huge difference. If I were insulting you, I would have called you named such as idiot, or moron. But I didn't, because I wasn't trying to insult you. I was simply trying to tell you that what you are perceiving to happen, isn't. At least not with the frequency that you had implied. It isn't an opinion that says that, there are facts involved in it. You very well could be right when you said things like they don't have a plan up there or that Mesoraco might just be a back up (things I can't say I agree with on Mesoraco). But when you say that they both chase pitches out of the zone, implying that they do so more than others, I felt the need to show you otherwise because if I interpreted what you were attempting to say about them, it is untrue.

As for me "always having to be right", it isn't so much that I have to, it is that I generally don't start to say something unless I have a strong feeling that I AM right about what I am going to say. When I don't know, or don't have a good reasoning behind what I believe, I just don't talk. Well, except in those few scenarios were we get overemotional to a scenario.

Vottomatic
01-18-2013, 03:18 PM
When your eyes tell you that guys chase pitches out of the zone all of the time and the data says that they don't, I am not going to just say "agree to disagree". Grass isn't purple, even if you say it is and people aren't going to just say "oh we are going to have to agree to disagree on that" if you say it.

I am not trying to be insulting. I am trying to show you that you are incorrect in something you said. There is a huge difference. If I were insulting you, I would have called you named such as idiot, or moron. But I didn't, because I wasn't trying to insult you. I was simply trying to tell you that what you are perceiving to happen, isn't. At least not with the frequency that you had implied. It isn't an opinion that says that, there are facts involved in it. You very well could be right when you said things like they don't have a plan up there or that Mesoraco might just be a back up (things I can't say I agree with on Mesoraco). But when you say that they both chase pitches out of the zone, implying that they do so more than others, I felt the need to show you otherwise because if I interpreted what you were attempting to say about them, it is untrue.

As for me "always having to be right", it isn't so much that I have to, it is that I generally don't start to say something unless I have a strong feeling that I AM right about what I am going to say. When I don't know, or don't have a good reasoning behind what I believe, I just don't talk. Well, except in those few scenarios were we get overemotional to a scenario.

I decided to delete my response. There's no use in arguing with you.

Salukifan2
01-18-2013, 03:24 PM
I think the reds need to make a decision. Either chose Hannigan and move mez to another club while he still has value or start Mez. Since it is Dusty's call i doubt Mez will get much playing time.

Also, you can't say Mez will never hit major league pitching. Do you remember Yadi's slash line his first few years in the bigs?

11larkin11
01-18-2013, 08:43 PM
From Doug's stats he posted, it looks like what people are seeing is Stubbs MISSING on outside pitches way more often than anyone else. When a guy hits a pitch out of the zone, no one really notices. Its when he swings and misses at pitches out of the zone when people notice. That's why your eyes tell you one thing, but the truth lies somewhere else. Yes, Stubbs swings and MISSES at too many pitches out of the zone.

dougdirt
01-18-2013, 08:46 PM
From Doug's stats he posted, it looks like what people are seeing is Stubbs MISSING on outside pitches way more often than anyone else. When a guy hits a pitch out of the zone, no one really notices. Its when he swings and misses at pitches out of the zone when people notice. That's why your eyes tell you one thing, but the truth lies somewhere else. Yes, Stubbs swings and MISSES at too many pitches out of the zone.

Pretty much. Stubbs doesn't chase much, but when he does, unlike just about everyone else in baseball, he misses more than half of the time.

BLark = HOF
01-21-2013, 05:24 PM
Stubbs watched a lot of piped fastballs. It seems more of him watching pitches than swinging at pitches outside of the zone.

mth123
01-21-2013, 09:25 PM
Stubbs watched a lot of piped fastballs. It seems more of him watching pitches than swinging at pitches outside of the zone.

:thumbup:

cjtenn28
01-22-2013, 11:52 PM
I think the reds need to make a decision. Either chose Hannigan and move mez to another club while he still has value or start Mez. Since it is Dusty's call i doubt Mez will get much playing time.

Also, you can't say Mez will never hit major league pitching. Do you remember Yadi's slash line his first few years in the bigs?



Hanigan has EARNED the starts he is getting and is why the Reds pitching is what it is.

dougdirt
01-23-2013, 12:15 AM
Hanigan has EARNED the starts he is getting and is why the Reds pitching is what it is.

So Hanigan is why, and not the pitchers?

Salukifan2
01-23-2013, 12:51 AM
Hanigan has EARNED the starts he is getting and is why the Reds pitching is what it is.

i agree with you. Im just saying a decision needs to be made. Hannigan isn't a spring chicken anymore though. Perhaps if Mez comes out this spring and shows that he remembers how to hit they may be able to split time more evenly this season (something mez would really benefit from).

I believe hannigan is supremely underrated. After molina i think he is the second best catcher in the division.

mth123
01-26-2013, 09:24 AM
I think the most intriguing position moving forward is Third Base. Todd Frazier is there for now, but I get an inkling that the Reds would prefer him in the OF or as a 400+ PA super sub. The Reds have a bunch of decent, but not first tier, propsects lined-up at 3B and I wonder how they will all get playing time. H-Rod in AAA, Vidal in AA, Mattair should probably be in AA, Mejias-Brean will be at A with maybe a quick move to A+. Gabriel Rosa was a second rounder and is still only 19 and Junior Arias is still only 21 and both could get their acts together after rough starts as very young players. Tanner Rahier was a second rounder last season with a relatively decent amount of fanfare and projects as a 3rd baseman as well.

2013 is going to be an interesting year to watch the prospects position themselves for 2014 and beyond and 3B is probably the most muddled and, at the same time, promisingly deep position in the system.

Scrap Irony
01-26-2013, 09:58 AM
2013 is going to be an interesting year to watch the prospects position themselves for 2014 and beyond and 3B is probably the most muddled and, at the same time, promisingly deep position in the system.

Lots of interesting CF types as well, IMO.

Hamilton is a stud.
Bryson Smith has done nothing but hit since he was drafted.
Ryan LaMarre supposedly owns all five tools, but hasn't found any power. (He's a great runner, however, and looks like he's patient.)
Theo Bowe had a breakout season last year and looks intriguing as he begins play in AA. (Maybe.)
Juan Silva played relatively well in Dayton last season and deserves another look-see, this time at Bakersfield.
Beau Amaral is the son of a former major leaguer, and he did fairly well last season in Billings.
Finally, Jonathan Reynoso is a BA Top Ten talent that scouts across the game seem to like.

These guys all look like they could be useful in some capacity, from fourth outfielders to major league stars. Interesting to see what happens here.

Benihana
01-26-2013, 10:08 AM
The position most up in the air in 2016 at this point is clearly LF. Could be Lutz, Winker, Y-Rod, Waldrop, or someone not currently in the organization. Every other position seems to be penciled in at least at this point, barring major trade or injury. Of course, Hamilton may not be the answer at CF, or Mez at C, but it's hard to envision an organic change anywhere else. 3B maybe if someone like Vidal or one of last years draftees really takes off and bumps Frazier. But I think the biggest question mark right now when projecting 2016 is who plays LF (and bats cleanup)?

mth123
01-26-2013, 10:10 AM
The position most up in the air in 2016 at this point is clearly LF. Could be Lutz, Winker, Y-Rod, Waldrop, or someone not currently in the organization. Every other position seems to be penciled in at least at this point, barring major trade or injury. Of course, Hamilton may not be the answer at CF, or Mez at C, but it's hard to envision an organic change anywhere else. 3B maybe if someone like Vidal or one of last years draftees really takes off and bumps Frazier. But I think the biggest question mark right now when projecting 2016 is who plays LF (and bats cleanup)?

Maybe its Frazier in LF with one of the kids moving in at 3B.

Benihana
01-26-2013, 10:14 AM
My projections (only using those currently in the org):

CF Hamilton
3B Frazier
1B Votto
LF Winker or Y.Rodriguez
RF Bruce
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart
2B Phillips

SP Latos
SP Chapman
SP Bailey or Cueto (other one leaves via FA)
SP Stephenson
SP Corcino or Cingrani

mth123
01-26-2013, 10:15 AM
Lots of interesting CF types as well, IMO.

Hamilton is a stud.
Bryson Smith has done nothing but hit since he was drafted.
Ryan LaMarre supposedly owns all five tools, but hasn't found any power. (He's a great runner, however, and looks like he's patient.)
Theo Bowe had a breakout season last year and looks intriguing as he begins play in AA. (Maybe.)
Juan Silva played relatively well in Dayton last season and deserves another look-see, this time at Bakersfield.
Beau Amaral is the son of a former major leaguer, and he did fairly well last season in Billings.
Finally, Jonathan Reynoso is a BA Top Ten talent that scouts across the game seem to like.

These guys all look like they could be useful in some capacity, from fourth outfielders to major league stars. Interesting to see what happens here.

Hamilton will be the guy, so the mystery isn't there in CF. Lamarre is already 24 and hasn't had a good season at AA yet, I hope he has a hot streak and the Reds cash him in. Bowe is not my cup fo tea. Smith looks promising in a Chris Heisey 4th OF kind of a way. Not sure he's really an every day guy in CF defensively. Reynoso is interesting, but need to see more. Silva is intriguing and Amaral may have sme promise as a bench guy.

mth123
01-26-2013, 10:23 AM
My projections (only using those currently in the org):

CF Hamilton
3B Frazier
1B Votto
LF Winker or Y.Rodriguez
RF Bruce
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart
2B Phillips

SP Latos
SP Chapman
SP Bailey or Cueto (other one leaves via FA)
SP Stephenson
SP Corcino or Cingrani

Winker has 4 levels to cross yet to reach the big leagues and I'm a skeptic about him by 2016. He had a really nice start at a league above his age level, but its a hitters league and he could still stall a bit in a full season environment that is not as hitter friendly. He'll still be just 22 on opening Day 2016.

Scrap Irony
01-26-2013, 10:35 AM
IIRC, the Pioneer League isn't all that much of a hitter's league. And Winker didn't just do well-- he was probably the second-best hitter in the league and one its youngest players.

Scrap Irony
01-26-2013, 10:36 AM
Hamilton will be the guy, so the mystery isn't there in CF. Lamarre is already 24 and hasn't had a good season at AA yet, I hope he has a hot streak and the Reds cash him in. Bowe is not my cup fo tea. Smith looks promising in a Chris Heisey 4th OF kind of a way. Not sure he's really an every day guy in CF defensively. Reynoso is interesting, but need to see more. Silva is intriguing and Amaral may have sme promise as a bench guy.

Just pointing out that other spots have as much talent as do the 3B prospects.

mth123
01-26-2013, 10:49 AM
Just pointing out that other spots have as much talent as do the 3B prospects.

Sure, but we already know who the CF of the future is supposed to be. Third is a muddy picture with lots of candidates that could emerge.

Don't really see anyone bypassing Hamilton in CF.

Scrap Irony
01-26-2013, 10:59 AM
I understand the first part of your premise, but reject the second-- ie, 3B is the deepest position in the Redleg system.

I see third base as a group of meh prospects lacking at least one tool apiece, making them all questionable at best. Only Henry Rodriguez has displayed any eye-popping production from that spot (though Vidal's numbers in the California League looked good). Mattair is next to useless, Mejias-Brean was playing at least one level too low, and none of the kids could hit-- at all.

Center field (already noted), starting pitching (Cingrani, Stephenson, Corcino, Rogers, Travieso, Moscot, Guillon, Langfield, etc, etc, etc), relief pitching (Hayes, Hoover, Lotzkar, failed starters, etc.), and 2B (Brodie Greene, Ryan Wright, Jonathan Perez, Devin Lohman, Ty Washington, even Brandon Dailey) could all be just as "talented" as 3B. Even the corner OF spot (Selsky, Winker, Lutz, Perez, Yorman Rodriguez) has just as much top end talent (more, in fact) and interesting candidates.

mth123
01-26-2013, 11:47 AM
I understand the first part of your premise, but reject the second-- ie, 3B is the deepest position in the Redleg system.

I see third base as a group of meh prospects lacking at least one tool apiece, making them all questionable at best. Only Henry Rodriguez has displayed any eye-popping production from that spot (though Vidal's numbers in the California League looked good). Mattair is next to useless, Mejias-Brean was playing at least one level too low, and none of the kids could hit-- at all.

Center field (already noted), starting pitching (Cingrani, Stephenson, Corcino, Rogers, Travieso, Moscot, Guillon, Langfield, etc, etc, etc), relief pitching (Hayes, Hoover, Lotzkar, failed starters, etc.), and 2B (Brodie Greene, Ryan Wright, Jonathan Perez, Devin Lohman, Ty Washington, even Brandon Dailey) could all be just as "talented" as 3B. Even the corner OF spot (Selsky, Winker, Lutz, Perez, Yorman Rodriguez) has just as much top end talent (more, in fact) and interesting candidates.

Agree about the pitching, I was only thinking of position players when I posted. I don't see any of those 2B being anything. Maybe Wright can be a Brendan Harris fringe type.

The bar is a lot higher in an OF corner as far as offense goes and I really only think Winker and Y-Rod are serious prospects. Could be a lot of useful guys there, but I don't see any of those being every day players. I could see Smith taking Heisey's spot as arb makes Heisey more costly than he's worth.

I think any of 6 guys could emerge as an every day 3B with my money on Vidal or Mejias-Brean. I wouldn't write-off Mattair, but I share the skepticism about him, but I think the Reds see something there. Arias needs to do something this season IMO. Rosa has more time and my optimism for Rahier is mostly coming from him getting so much love on this site on draft day. I don't like H-Rod's bat at 3B. I wish he could play SS better. It would make him a good choice as a reserve IF who can add offense, but the lack of ability to play SS may keep him off the roster in favor of a better glove.

Mostly, I just think the Reds are skeptical of Frazier every day and would prefer him in the OF or as a guy who moves around and doesn't accumulate too much time at any one spot to expose his defensive weakness in the IF. I hope Frazier dazzles us at 3B. I think his bat fits best there, but I'm not sure he can play it 150 games per season. I remember the Reds saying that LF is his best position but they need him at 3B for now. I've been trying to find a link, but can't.

Drugs Delaney
01-26-2013, 02:46 PM
I think one of the keys to the medium term future is successfully pulling off a Tampa Bay type trade in which we unload one of our top of the rotation starters before they get crazy expensive for a good package of prospects that cheaply fill some position player holes with good young talent.

I don't see the Reds being able to pay big money to Cueto, Bailey, Latos and Chapman in 2016. Ideally, they could get 3 of the 4 extended relatively long term and trade the other for a nice package of prospects.

Much will depend upon how many of the Stephenson, Corcino, Cingrani, and Travieso group pan out as MLB starters and if any of them is a TOR guy. If one of the group is a high quality starter and one of the group ends up a decent middle of the rotation type, the Reds will be in great shape. They would then have the ability to retain a high quality group of starters while staying within budget constraints and also have the opportunity to replenish the prospect ranks in exchange for one of the young veterans.

Benihana
01-26-2013, 06:43 PM
Bottom line is that once Hamilton graduates, the Reds don't really have any positional prospects that are all that interesting. Winker is next, but after him everyone has a bunch of question marks.

That said, I don't think we need a Tampa style trade, unless Leake can bring back a top prospect or two once Cingrani and/or Corcino prove they can be counted on in the rotation. We'll need Cueto, Latos, Bailey (and hopefully Chapman) in order to contend for the next 2+ years. Plus, the fact that we have 4 Top 100 picks in this years draft (for the second year in a row) will hopefully go a long way towards restocking.

If all three of the C's (Chapman, Corcino & Cingrani) reach their potential and Winker/Y-Rod aren't on the fast track, perhaps they could trade Bailey sometime in 2014 for a stud LF (or 3B if Frazier is not the answer) if Bailey wants too much money to stay long term (this of course assumes we can lock up Latos for the long term).

Drugs Delaney
01-27-2013, 01:37 AM
Bottom line is that once Hamilton graduates, the Reds don't really have any positional prospects that are all that interesting. Winker is next, but after him everyone has a bunch of question marks.

That said, I don't think we need a Tampa style trade, unless Leake can bring back a top prospect or two once Cingrani and/or Corcino prove they can be counted on in the rotation. We'll need Cueto, Latos, Bailey (and hopefully Chapman) in order to contend for the next 2+ years. Plus, the fact that we have 4 Top 100 picks in this years draft (for the second year in a row) will hopefully go a long way towards restocking.

If all three of the C's (Chapman, Corcino & Cingrani) reach their potential and Winker/Y-Rod aren't on the fast track, perhaps they could trade Bailey sometime in 2014 for a stud LF (or 3B if Frazier is not the answer) if Bailey wants too much money to stay long term (this of course assumes we can lock up Latos for the long term).

I agree with you about needing those guys the next two years, but I do think that by 2016 the Reds will have trouble paying that many front line starters at market value. Both Latos and Cueto could be in line for 20 million a year type deals. Bailey may not be too far behind them. And Chapman is a wild card who also will likely be pretty expensive. At some point, the Reds may have to make a budget friendly transaction to keep their window open beyond the next couple years.

I think a deal like the one you mentioned for Bailey could make a lot of sense. Give big extensions to Latos and Cueto and hope you can get a Wil Myers type for Bailey with long term cost control. Replace Homer in the middle of the rotation with a guy like Stephenson.

mth123
01-27-2013, 05:58 AM
I have to wonder if the Reds won't send Leake down to start the season and leave him down long enough to push free agency back a year. Right now Free Agency could completely change the rotation. Arroyo after 2013, Bailey after 2014, Latos, Cueto and Leake after 2015. By 2016, it may be Chapman (in his last year) with Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso. I hope they can extend at least 2 of Bailey, Cueto and Latos, but pushing Leake's Free Agency back a year may ease the timetable on the younger arms. Roges, Guillon and a few of the others beyond the big 4 of Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso will probably be needed at the back end. I think its iffy whether Stephenson and Travieso will be ready by 2016 and getting another year from Leake might ease the schedule a bit.

Drugs Delaney
01-28-2013, 08:41 PM
I have to wonder if the Reds won't send Leake down to start the season and leave him down long enough to push free agency back a year. Right now Free Agency could completely change the rotation. Arroyo after 2013, Bailey after 2014, Latos, Cueto and Leake after 2015. By 2016, it may be Chapman (in his last year) with Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso. I hope they can extend at least 2 of Bailey, Cueto and Latos, but pushing Leake's Free Agency back a year may ease the timetable on the younger arms. Roges, Guillon and a few of the others beyond the big 4 of Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso will probably be needed at the back end. I think its iffy whether Stephenson and Travieso will be ready by 2016 and getting another year from Leake might ease the schedule a bit.

It is possible, though the news out of the Reds Caravan seems to indicate that the Reds are planning to start Chapman out of the bullpen for the first month or two so they don't have to shut him down before the playoffs.

I also think seeing the exact years when the pitchers become FAs backs up my point a bit that the Reds are going to have a really hard time keeping all of them while also paying pretty big money to guys like Votto, Phillips, Bruce, etc.

A legitimate goal would be extending 2 of the 3 and getting a major league ready prospect or two for the one you can't extend.

Stephenson should be ready after 3 more seasons in the minors. Cingrani and Corcino are going to arrive much sooner than that. I think the Reds are going to be fine with the rotation, but looking at it in terms of free agency and multiple years into the future makes it much clearer how important a guy like Stephenson is. Many wanted to move him for a guy like Denard Span. But we are going to badly need some cheap but talented starting arms in the not so distant future.

mth123
01-28-2013, 09:30 PM
It is possible, though the news out of the Reds Caravan seems to indicate that the Reds are planning to start Chapman out of the bullpen for the first month or two so they don't have to shut him down before the playoffs.

I also think seeing the exact years when the pitchers become FAs backs up my point a bit that the Reds are going to have a really hard time keeping all of them while also paying pretty big money to guys like Votto, Phillips, Bruce, etc.

A legitimate goal would be extending 2 of the 3 and getting a major league ready prospect or two for the one you can't extend.

Stephenson should be ready after 3 more seasons in the minors. Cingrani and Corcino are going to arrive much sooner than that. I think the Reds are going to be fine with the rotation, but looking at it in terms of free agency and multiple years into the future makes it much clearer how important a guy like Stephenson is. Many wanted to move him for a guy like Denard Span. But we are going to badly need some cheap but talented starting arms in the not so distant future.

I think extending them is going to be difficult. After the 2014 Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and James Shields are all due to be free agents. Those guys will probably sign deals that will reset the market for everybody. Add the TV money that is going through the roof and I sure wouldn't jump the gun and sign early if I was a pitcher due for free agency around or soon after that time. I could see Clayton, Justin and Felix each in excess of $25 Million per year for at least 5 years. Shields may be around $20 Million for 3 or 4 years. I'd guess that would put Bailey and other mid-rotation guys in the $12 to $15 Million range for a multi year deal with Latos and Cueto in the $17 to $20 Million per year range. If those guys stay healthy and progress a little bit, they could go even higher IMO.

Drugs Delaney
01-29-2013, 01:18 AM
I think extending them is going to be difficult. After the 2014 Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and James Shields are all due to be free agents. Those guys will probably sign deals that will reset the market for everybody. Add the TV money that is going through the roof and I sure wouldn't jump the gun and sign early if I was a pitcher due for free agency around or soon after that time. I could see Clayton, Justin and Felix each in excess of $25 Million per year for at least 5 years. Shields may be around $20 Million for 3 or 4 years. I'd guess that would put Bailey and other mid-rotation guys in the $12 to $15 Million range for a multi year deal with Latos and Cueto in the $17 to $20 Million per year range. If those guys stay healthy and progress a little bit, they could go even higher IMO.

Yeah, you are definitely right.

I think the hope would be with a guy like Latos who still has so many years until he hits FA. He might be willing to give the Reds a slight discount on a year or two of his post arbitration years in exchange for the security of a long term deal. Arm injuries are so common for pitchers that locking in a guaranteed 60 or 70 million for 5 years (3 of which are his arb years) may be worth giving up the potential to make a little more in those last two years. He would still get a shot at a monster deal as a FA in his prime even after the 5 years. For him, he guarantees he never has to worry about money for the rest of his life. For the Reds, they get some cost certainty during the arb years and in exchange for taking the risk with all the guarantees money get to pay a bit below market.

I think the Reds may be able to afford to spend 30 million or so a year on their top two starters combined. Maybe even a little more. But there is very little chance they are going to be able to devote 60 or 70 million to the starting rotation. There absolutely must be some cheap cost controlled young starters in the rotation at all times.