Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
We do disagree on Heisey. He's a low OBP hitter, almost never walks. I would have used his $1.7 million toward a bat, a better OBP man.
And if the new guy can't play CF, then I would have opted for a defensive CFer rather than Schumaker, who I agree isn't a real CF option.
Hard for me to see where the OBP is going to come from on this team as constituted.
Except that some OBP will come from Votto who probably will be walked repeatedly and constantly.
Well, I guess I see Schumaker as the OBP bat off the bench and super utility guy that really isn't a great defender.
Heisey is the backup CF that every team needs to have.
Too bad there's not 27 roster spots, and we could've kept Paul. That would've helped the bench out.
Hopefully Votto doesn't walk as much next year, and gets more hits <ducks and hides :lol: >
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
We do disagree on Heisey. He's a low OBP hitter, almost never walks. I would have used his $1.7 million toward a bat, a better OBP man.
The grass is always greener. Let's pretend for a minute that the Reds could sign anybody they wanted, so long as it was fair market value. Who is this guy you would have used Heisey's $1.7MM on?
Here are the 2014 FAs who signed for less than $5MM/yr and those still unsigned, with their predicted slash stats and rank among that group of 67 players. Heisey is included for context. I'm sure there are a few guys not on the list, but I doubt they'd be near the top of it. The list is sorted by projected OBP.
Now tell me, who should the Reds be using Heisey's money on? What would they have cost? And once you account for the rest of their game, by how much could we expect them to outproduce Heisey?
Code:
Pos Player AVG OBP SLG OPS AVG_Rk OBP_Rk SLG_Rk OPS_Rk Signed
1B Kendrys Morales .276 .337 .454 .791 2 1 2 2
3B Casey McGehee .249 .332 .408 .740 14 2 11 4 1 yr, $1.1MM with Marlins
OF Grady Sizemore .243 .329 .412 .741 20 3 7 3
OF Austin Kearns .228 .329 .344 .673 40 3 39 20
DH Travis Hafner .225 .323 .383 .706 44 5 15 11
2B Skip Schumaker .256 .323 .330 .653 6 5 44 29 2 yr, $5.0 MM with Reds
OF Nelson Cruz .257 .322 .471 .793 5 7 1 1
OF Juan Pierre .278 .322 .335 .657 1 7 42 27
1B Carlos Pena .205 .321 .350 .671 62 9 29 21
SS Rafael Furcal .252 .321 .340 .661 12 9 41 24 1 yr, $3.5MM with Marlins
CA Michael McKenry .249 .319 .418 .737 14 11 5 6 1 yr, $750K with Rockies (Minors)
3B Eric Chavez .254 .317 .411 .728 11 12 9 8 1 yr, $3.5MM with D'Backs
OF Jordany Valdespin .239 .314 .369 .683 23 13 21 18
IF Michael Young .256 .313 .349 .662 6 14 31 23
SS Omar Quintanilla .237 .313 .325 .638 26 14 47 39
UT Kelly Johnson .236 .313 .412 .725 27 14 7 9 1 yr, $3.0MM with Yankees
SS Nick Punto .229 .313 .294 .607 38 14 61 50 1 yr, $3.0MM with A's
1B Paul Konerko .239 .312 .349 .661 23 18 31 24 1 yr, $2.5MM with White Sox
1B Jeff Baker .250 .311 .420 .731 13 19 4 7
2B Willie Bloomquist .268 .309 .327 .636 3 20 46 40 2 yr, $5.8 MM with Mariners
OF Jason Bay .222 .308 .378 .686 49 21 19 16
OF Sam Fuld .235 .308 .319 .627 28 21 50 43
1B Mark Reynolds .221 .308 .430 .738 50 21 3 5 1 yr, $2.0MM with Brewers (Minors)
DH Delmon Young .260 .308 .415 .723 4 21 6 10 1 yr, $1.0MM with Orioles
SS Stephen Drew .228 .307 .388 .695 40 25 14 14
3B Justin Turner .255 .307 .364 .671 9 25 24 21
IF Chris Getz .256 .307 .315 .622 6 25 52 46 1 yr, $? with Blue Jays (Minors)
2B Ramon Santiago .240 .306 .305 .611 22 28 58 48
1B Casey Kotchman .247 .306 .348 .654 16 28 35 28
DH Jason Giambi .189 .306 .335 .641 67 28 42 37 1 yr, $? with Indians (Minors)
OF Andres Torres .232 .305 .321 .626 31 31 49 45
DH Luke Scott .228 .304 .380 .684 40 32 17 17
OF Chris Coghlan .234 .303 .356 .659 29 33 26 26 1 yr, $? with Cubs (Minors)
CA Geovanny Soto .223 .302 .396 .698 47 34 13 13 1 yr, $3.05 MM with Rangers
3B Placido Polanco .246 .301 .297 .598 18 35 60 55
2B Brian Roberts .232 .298 .345 .643 31 36 37 36 1 yr, $2.0MM with Yankees
CA Kurt Suzuki .242 .297 .353 .650 21 37 27 31 1 yr, $2.75MM with A's
IF Jamey Carroll .230 .297 .277 .574 37 37 65 60 1 yr, $? with Nationals (Minors)
CA Ramon Hernandez .232 .296 .349 .645 31 39 31 35
OF Chris Heisey .245 .296 .409 .705 19 39 10 12
3B Chris Nelson .247 .295 .380 .675 16 41 17 19
OF Raul Ibanez .215 .292 .400 .692 55 42 12 15 1 yr, $2.75MM with Angels
3B Wilson Betemit .231 .290 .342 .632 36 43 40 42
CA Kelly Shoppach .202 .290 .346 .636 63 43 36 41
CA Brayan Pena .255 .290 .359 .649 9 43 25 32 2 yr, $2.28MM with Reds
CA Yorvit Torrealba .234 .289 .312 .601 29 46 56 53
CA John Buck .209 .288 .351 .639 59 47 28 38 1 yr, $1MM with Mariners
2B Elliot Johnson .227 .285 .318 .603 43 48 51 52
2B Jayson Nix .213 .285 .315 .600 56 48 52 54
OF Laynce Nix .223 .284 .367 .651 47 50 22 30
2B Alexi Casilla .239 .282 .322 .604 23 51 48 51
OF Rick Ankiel .213 .279 .367 .646 56 52 22 34
CA Wil Nieves .232 .273 .301 .574 31 53 59 60 1 yr, $1.25 MM with Phillies
SS Brenden Ryan .216 .272 .263 .535 53 54 67 65 2 yr, $5.0MM with Yankees
CA Jose Molina .209 .271 .290 .561 59 55 62 63 2 yr, $4.5MM with Rays
IF Brandon Inge .198 .269 .313 .582 66 56 54 58
SS Cesar Izturis .224 .269 .282 .551 45 56 63 64 1 yr, $? with Astros (Minors)
IF Paul Janish .202 .268 .267 .535 63 58 66 65
SS Alex Gonzalez .229 .267 .350 .617 38 59 29 47
CA Humberto Quintero .224 .266 .313 .579 45 60 54 59
OF Jeff Francouer .220 .265 .329 .594 51 61 45 56
IF Yunieski Bentancourt .232 .265 .383 .648 31 61 15 33
SS Clint Barmes .219 .263 .308 .571 52 63 57 62
OF Franklin Gutierrez .210 .259 .349 .608 58 64 31 49 1 yr, $1.0MM with Mariners
SS John McDonald .199 .254 .279 .533 65 65 64 67
CA JP Arencibia .216 .251 .376 .627 53 66 20 43 1 yr, $1.8MM with Rangers
CA Miguel Olivo .208 .249 .345 .594 61 67 37 57
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
I was previously asked for some specific ideas on what the Reds should have done. I gave them as best I could. I'm not playing this game again.
Nor were the Reds limited to free agent signings. Plenty of players were traded this off-season.
My views are absolutely clear.
If you think that a sit still position was the only available avenue, we just disagree.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
I was previously asked for some specific ideas on what the Reds should have done. I gave them as best I could. I'm not playing this game again.
Nor were the Reds limited to free agent signings. Plenty of players were traded this off-season.
My views are absolutely clear.
It's easy to sit back and shoot down the idea of any improvement. We'll see how the Reds OBP turns out.
It's even easier to play armchair GM. I play it as much as anybody, but suggesting we can make better use of $1.7MM than Chris Heisey is pushing it.
Sure, I'd take De Aza too. I'd love a guy who could play CF every day and get on base. But every team in baseball wants that. They don't come cheap. It's not Heisey's $1.7MM that's preventing the Reds from acquiring him; it's the cost of players you'd have to give up -- plus the extra $2-3MM in salary.
I feel you. Losing Choo's OBP and replacing it with a healthy Ludwick and Billy Hamilton is not an inspiring plan. I just think we make it sound a lot easier to go out and get those improvements than it actually is, especially considering unknown limitations placed on Walt from above and the interest or disinterest of FAs to come to Cincinnati and other teams to trade us their good players at a reasonable cost. For all we know, Walt talked to the White Sox about De Aza and they told him the conversation starts with Robert Stephenson or else it doesn't at all.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Just to clarify something mentioned earlier, Reds starters averaged 6.2 innings per game. While this led the NL (and was 2nd to Detroit in MLB) it still leaves 2.8 innings per nine-inning-game (not to mention extras) for the Bullpen.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...pitching.shtml
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
It's even easier to play armchair GM. I play it as much as anybody, but suggesting we can make better use of $1.7MM than Chris Heisey is pushing it.
Sure, I'd take De Aza too. I'd love a guy who could play CF every day and get on base. But every team in baseball wants that. They don't come cheap. It's not Heisey's $1.7MM that's preventing the Reds from acquiring him; it's the cost of players you'd have to give up -- plus the extra $2-3MM in salary.
I feel you. Losing Choo's OBP and replacing it with a healthy Ludwick and Billy Hamilton is not an inspiring plan. I just think we make it sound a lot easier to go out and get those improvements than it actually is, especially considering unknown limitations placed on Walt from above and the interest or disinterest of FAs to come to Cincinnati and other teams to trade us their good players at a reasonable cost. For all we know, Walt talked to the White Sox about De Aza and they told him the conversation starts with Robert Stephenson or else it doesn't at all.
Heisey is a low OBP player on a low OBP team. I would have rather seen the Reds use that $1.7 to increase the on base ability post-Choo. I never said that $1.7 million ITSELF would bring about that result, but the money could have been directed at the team's particular problem.
I'm sure Walt had a tough job and I'm sure he tried. I don't know what conversations he had. But for 13 months, including every deadline, the team has basically stood pat. I just don't think you usually improve that way. And I just don't buy that it was the only way to go.
Nor do I know why this result has obtained. It may not be the GM. Maybe ownership or some other factor prevented a deal. This isn't about any individual, just the result to date.
The thread is about Homer Bailey, it's been sidetracked too long, hopefully someone will get it back on track.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Homer Bailey is a good pitcher. :D
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
So you suggest, and it could be right, that the Reds just decided that offense was such a low priority item that they would choose to allocate every single dime away from offensive improvement.
If so, they weren't watching last year.
As for your last point, the outfield addition I suggest should have no impact on signing Bailey. One is a hundred million dollar item. The other is a about a four or five million dollar item.
I really think I've made my position very clear. I'm not upset that they chose to avoid big expenditures on offense. I am satisfied for them to allocate their big money to pitching. I am however unhappy that they chose to sit entirely still with their offense and failed to improve it with lower cost moves.
I just think a statement like that is blatantly unfair.
Schumaker and Pena are both upgrades offensively. Marginal, but I don't see the front office having made any improvements to the pitching staff this offseason.
If you aren't happy with acquistions of the Schumaker/Pena ilk, I just have to wonder what kind of offensive acquisition would make you happy? Either Mes will succeed and get a ton of AB's this year, or Pena will be an upgrade over Hanny offensively. That is an underrated move thus far, Hanigan's defense aside.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
I just think a statement like that is blatantly unfair.
Schumaker and Pena are both upgrades offensively. Marginal, but I don't see the front office having made any improvements to the pitching staff this offseason.
If you aren't happy with acquistions of the Schumaker/Pena ilk, I just have to wonder what kind of offensive acquisition would make you happy? Either Mes will succeed and get a ton of AB's this year, or Pena will be an upgrade over Hanny offensively. That is an underrated move thus far, Hanigan's defense aside.
Strange. You're the one who said the Reds were trying to "allocate resources elsewhere." Meaning away from offense. So I merely gave your statement some credit.
And now you give me a rough time. Essentially, for agreeing with your post.
And if Schumaker is an offensive upgrade, please tell me whose spot is being upgraded. Certainly not Paul who was a better hitter last couple of years.
Really, enough already. On to another discussion.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Homer Bailey is a really good pitcher. :eek:
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
Strange. You're the one who said the Reds were trying to "allocate resources elsewhere." Meaning away from offense. So I merely gave your statement some credit.
And now you give me a rough time. Essentially, for agreeing with your post.
And if Schumaker is an offensive upgrade, please tell me whose spot is being upgraded. Certainly not Paul who was a better hitter last couple of years.
Really, enough already. On to another discussion.
I do believe they plan on allocating more of their "haven't spent it yet" money on pitching. That is a world apart from your claim that they have done nothing to improve the offense.
And I get it, it has been underwhelming. No argument. But I respectfully think you are being a bit over the top with things.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
I do believe they plan on allocating more of their "haven't spent it yet" money on pitching. That is a world apart from your claim that they have done nothing to improve the offense.
And I get it, it has been underwhelming. No argument. But I respectfully think you are being a bit over the top with things.
You might re-read what I actually said, not only the fragment you put in bold letters. But in any event, you really don't disagree with me in substance. I hope it all works out well for the Reds.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
I just think a statement like that is blatantly unfair.
Schumaker and Pena are both upgrades offensively. Marginal, but I don't see the front office having made any improvements to the pitching staff this offseason.
If you aren't happy with acquistions of the Schumaker/Pena ilk, I just have to wonder what kind of offensive acquisition would make you happy? Either Mes will succeed and get a ton of AB's this year, or Pena will be an upgrade over Hanny offensively. That is an underrated move thus far, Hanigan's defense aside.
While I may not agree with all of KC's positions, I gotta back him up here. Schumaker and Pena are decent but minor upgrade if they add a bat or to to appreciably improve the offense. Taken by themselves - without such additions - they are insignificant enough to be meaningless. Even Holmberg, whose acquisition I like quite a bit does little to improve the outlook of this team without addressing the offensive shortcomings.
If he is healthy and able to regain a decent amount of his former ability then Sizemore could be a fairly healthy boost in a platoon with Ludwick and/or as a LH bat off the bench. I'm not hanging my hat on him though until I see how he fares in Spring Training.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
You might re-read what I actually said, not only the fragment you put in bold letters. But in any event, you really don't disagree with me in substance. I hope it all works out well for the Reds.
You are correct. I'm not far off from you in the fact that I have my fingers crossed about the offense this year. So let's advance from there.
Now to the "disagreement".
If I'm correct, you were wishing for 2-3 bats, who in your words, know how to "hit and walk". You mention the 5 Million dollar range. Rick, in a way more classful than mine, kindly presented a chart of the options available in the 5 Million or Less Bargain Bin. I don't see a whole lot of hitting and walking going on in that table.
When I ask for specifics, it is simply trying to find (even in retrospect) a path Walt should have taken this past offseason to upgrade the offense. And if there was a path you see, it would need to be assessed to see it would be feasible and if it would be good for the Reds organization in the short and long term.
My simple mind, having a ballpark idea of payroll constraints and wanting to sign some of our starting pitchers to extensions, isn't seeing a lot that could have been done.
I come in peace kc61, my initial reply to your recent posts of the past week was of the "keep your chin" up variety.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=377
From there I've had my eye on your posts and have admittedly tried to pick your brain to see your viewpoint...I truly hate to see a fellow fan so bummed out heading into a contending season.
Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedEye
Homer Bailey is a really good pitcher. :eek:
You know, this was a nice friendly thread until you started tossing these outrageous statements into the fray. :D