Originally Posted by
dougdirt
Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).
I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.