Week Four NFL Picks

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Last Week: 9-7
Season: 33-15
Record Picking Redskins Games: 1-2
Against the Spread: 7-4-1
Lock of the Week: 2-1

Last Week's Pats: Not too much to brag about this week. Correctly picked the Cowboys to "upset" the Bears and correctly picked a close game between the Ravens and the Cardinals. But overall, not much back-patting this week.

Last Week's Apologies: Tampa Bay got my attention last week. At the same time, I am off the St. Louis bandwagon following their third straight ugly performance. I was also WAY off on the Jaguars-Broncos game. Denver has looked very shaky thus far in 2007.

This Week's Picks:

Houston at Atlanta: No one will ever go 0-16 in the NFL. That means the Falcons have to beat someone, at some point. Taking a wild guess that they get their first win this week against the hobbled Texans.

Falcons 22, Texans 20

New York Jets at Buffalo: Going with another mild upset here, again basing it on the law of averages more than anything else.

Bills 20, Jets 17

Baltimore at Cleveland: The Browns had a great opportunity to build on the momentum they established in week 2, but they blew the game in Oakland last week. That was their chance.

Ravens 24, Browns 13

St. Louis at Dallas: Like I said, I'm off the Rams bandwagon, especially now that Steven Jackson is hurting.

Cowboys 30, Rams 20

Chicago at Detroit: This is a much tougher game to predict than I would have guessed before the season started. Brian Griese may add a little life to the Bears pathetic offensive attack, but what few people are talking about is the way Dallas dismantled that Chicago defense. I'll go with the Bears this week, but it's a shaky bet.

Bears 19, Lions 16

Oakland at Miami: Painful game to watch. Advise avoiding at all costs. Flip a coin and pick the Dolphins to get their first win.

Dolphins 21, Raiders 17

Green Bay at Minnesota: I'm feeling a few upset vibes this week. Look for the Vikings to suprise the super-hot Packers.

Vikings 17, Packers 14

Tampa Bay at Carolina: No one listens to me. Not my wife, not my friends, and apparantly NFL "experts" don't either. Carolina was a pre-season media darling for the second straight year without any substantial reasons as to why. This is an average team at best. I do, however, see them winning an ugly one this week.

Panthers 16, Bucs 13

Seattle at San Francisco: The 49ers could really put themselves in a great position with a victory. Not only would they move to 3-1 on the year, but they would be 3-0 in the division while dropping the Seahawks to 0-2 in the division. Look for it to happen.

49ers 23, Seahawks 20

Pittsburgh at Arizona: The Steelers can't be as good as they've looked so far, can they? Rolling with the upset specials this week....

Cardinals 24, Steelers 21

Denver at Indianapolis: Before the season began, I really though Denver might be able to go into Indy and pull this one out. But after watching the Broncos bumble and stumble for the majority of three weeks, I'm much less confident.

Colts 28, Broncos 20

Kansas City at San Diego: This is the straight-up lock of the week. Despite their win last week, Kansas City is in miserable shape. The Chargers have issues to be sure, but there is no way they drop this one.

Chargers 31, Chiefs 13

Philadelphia at New York Giants: Both teams looked sorry prior to last week. Now, they both seem much more attractive. With the Eagles secondary still reeling a bit, I'm going with the Giants and that passing game to outlast Philly.

Giants 27, Eagles 23

New England at Cincinnati: The Bengals are starting down the barrel of a 1-3 start, which could seriously hurt their chances in the competitive NFC North. This game is much less important for the 3-0 Patriots, who have yet to be challenged this year. I do think Cincy finally gives the Pats a test-- but New England will pass.

Patriots 29, Bengals 24

4 To Score

1. Arizona (+6) against the Steelers: A very high spread for a team playing at home that almost won in Baltimore last week.
2. Chargers (-11.5) against the Chiefs: Game will be over at halftime. Chargers should hold on for the cover.
3. New York Giants (+3) against the Eagles: I could see the Eagles winning a close one, which means a push may be your worst case scenerio.
4. Buffalo (+3.5) against the Jets: Another home dog, that is due. Yeah, I know, "never bet the due."