Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate
Even after a 3 game series in the Death Valley NL east the Reds offense still looks powerful, one thing about being a Reds fan is that hitting always seems to be a more frequent guest to Reds baseball then pitching. That said I ask you “Who” can't love a team with an all world CF, a slugging corner outfielder, a budding young player at the other corner outfield position, an offensive surprise at both the catchers position and third base. Not to mention the emerging middle infielder and the other middle infielder that slugs above average for his position. Not to mention the Latin phenom in the dugout, you know…. the one with prodigious power.
I mean that sounds like a great offense, of course I’m not talking about the 2005 Reds, I'm talking about the Reds team from 40 years ago.
First let's run through some numbers that might bring this team (the 1965 Reds and the 2005 Reds) and their place in the games history up to speed.
Since 1900 only 35 teams have had 100 runs over the league average. Today the Reds lead the NL in runs scored with 660 runs, this gives them a plus 89 in runs scored vs. the current average and they are on pace to score 848 runs. If they top the leagues average by 100 runs and have a losing record then they will be only the 4th team out of those 36 to have a losing record, and the only team that didn’t play in Colorado or the Baker Bowl
It's a pretty impressive list, 71% of the teams on the list won either their division or league (or in case of the 1951 Dodgers were in a playoff) 31% won the World Series and 6% shared the same year with another team on the list that won the league title.14.25% of them are the Rockies or the Depressions version of the Rockies the Philadelphia Phillies.
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not sorting criteria
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not sorting criteria
Code:
RUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G EBH OBA
1 Pirates 1902 193 775 582 1.21 302 .023
2 Dodgers 1953 189 955 766 1.22 541 .021
3 Reds 1976 178 857 679 1.47 475 .028
4 Rockies 1996 177 961 784 1.02 555 .015
5 Rockies 1997 149 923 774 0.99 548 .015
6 Reds 1975 147 840 693 0.81 439 .016
7 Reds 1965 138 825 687 0.98 512 .018
8 Dodgers 1955 136 857 721 0.69 475 .019
9 Giants 1905 135 780 645 1.00 318 .024
10 Giants 1924 133 857 724 0.73 445 .013
11 Braves 2003 130 907 777 0.89 587 .008
12 Rockies 2001 130 923 793 1.03 598 .014
13 Dodgers 1949 126 879 753 0.41 435 .010
14 Pirates 1971 124 788 664 0.63 438 .004
15 Cubs 1906 124 704 580 0.47 272 .009
16 Braves 1964 122 803 681 0.54 465 .011
17 Giants 1908 121 652 531 0.67 245 .034
18 Cardinals 1942 119 755 636 0.56 411 .010
19 Rockies 2000 119 968 849 0.50 534 .011
20 Dodgers 1942 118 741 623 0.34 359 .010
21 Giants 1962 117 878 761 0.48 471 .004
22 Pirates 1925 116 912 796 0.65 499 .011
23 Giants 1921 112 840 728 0.37 405 .011
24 Dodgers 1951 112 855 743 0.49 470 .010
25 Giants 1912 109 823 714 0.39 367 .010
26 Pirates 1901 109 776 667 0.58 302 .014
27 Phillies 1977 108 847 739 0.73 508 .009
28 Cubs 1929 107 982 875 0.33 495 .005
29 Pirates 1909 105 701 596 0.43 335 .007
30 Giants 1904 105 744 639 0.46 298 .013
31 Cardinals 1901 104 792 688 0.36 320 .006
32 Phillies 1993 104 877 773 0.62 504 .015
33 Reds 1969 102 798 696 0.55 437 .005
34 Dodgers 1941 100 800 700 0.72 456 .011
35 Phillies 1932 100 844 744 0.70 519 .011
If you break the list up by dates/eras it would look like this
Deadball Era 77% wins Title
Code:
1900-1920
RUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G
1 Pirates 1902 193 775 582 1.21
2 Giants 1905 135 780 645 1.00
3 Cubs 1906 124 704 580 0.47
4 Giants 1908 121 652 531 0.67
5 Giants 1912 109 823 714 0.39
6 Pirates 1901 109 776 667 0.58
7 Pirates 1909 105 701 596 0.43
8 Giants 1904 105 744 639 0.46
9 Cardinals 1901 104 792 688 0.36
Ruth Era 75% wins title
Code:
1921-1945
RUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G
1 Giants 1924 133 857 724 0.73
2 Cardinals 1942 119 755 636 0.56
3 Dodgers 1942 118 741 623 0.34
4 Pirates 1925 116 912 796 0.65
5 Giants 1921 112 840 728 0.37
6 Cubs 1929 107 982 875 0.33
7 Dodgers 1941 100 800 700 0.72
8 Phillies 1932 100 844 744 0.70
Post War 75% win title
Code:
1946-1961
RUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G
1 Dodgers 1953 189 955 766 1.22
2 Dodgers 1955 136 857 721 0.69
3 Dodgers 1949 126 879 753 0.41
4 Dodgers 1951 112 855 743 0.49
Expansion Era #1 33% Win title
Code:
1962-1968
RUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G
1 Reds 1965 138 825 687 0.98
2 Braves 1964 122 803 681 0.54
3 Giants 1962 117 878 761 0.48
Expansion Era #2 80% Win title
Code:
1969-1992
RUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G
1 Reds 1976 178 857 679 1.47
2 Reds 1975 147 840 693 0.81
3 Pirates 1971 124 788 664 0.63
4 Phillies 1977 108 847 739 0.73
5 Reds 1969 102 798 696 0.55
Expansion Era #3 33% win title.
Code:
1993-2004
RUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G
1 Rockies 1996 177 961 784 1.02
2 Rockies 1997 149 923 774 0.99
3 Braves 2003 130 907 777 0.89
4 Rockies 2001 130 923 793 1.03
5 Rockies 2000 119 968 849 0.50
6 Phillies 1993 104 877 773 0.62
Let's remove the Rockies (who are freak of nature and muck up the numbers) and look at the top 10 non Rockie teams 3-5 are property of the Reds, 3 and 4 are the seminal years 75-76, any rehash of that is redundant, but I will tell you this, the 1.47 difference that the Reds had vs. the League in RC/27 is the all time high in NL History and second only to the 1927 Yankees.
What really interest me are the 1965 Reds who fall a small .002 percentage points from being the 7th team to average a full run per/27 outs more than the league average.
Code:
RUNS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE RC/G EBH OBA
1 Pirates 1902 193 775 582 1.21 302 .023
2 Dodgers 1953 189 955 766 1.22 541 .021
3 Reds 1976 178 857 679 1.47 475 .028
4 Reds 1975 147 840 693 0.81 439 .016
5 Reds 1965 138 825 687 0.98 512 .018
6 Dodgers 1955 136 857 721 0.69 475 .019
7 Giants 1905 135 780 645 1.00 318 .024
9 Giants 1924 133 857 724 0.73 445 .013
9 Braves 2003 130 907 777 0.89 587 .008
10 Dodgers 1949 126 879 753 0.41 435 .019
Who were these Reds and why did they smack the hell out of the ball so well especially at home where they had a .287/. 355/. 475 to a road line .259/. 324/. 404?
A common theme of Reds lore post V-J day is the presence of extreme hitting and the just hanging in there pitching. A nice example of this is found in the 1965 team, a team that has a lot in common with the 2005 Reds.
Code:
1965 Reds 2005 Reds
Pete Rose Felipe Lopez
Leo Cardenas Rich Aurilia
Deron Johnson Joe Randa/Ed E.
Gordy Coleman Sean Casey
Frank Robinson Adam Dunn
Vada Pinson Ken Griffey
Tommy Harper Austin Kearns
Tony Perez Wily Mo Pena
Don Pavletich Valentine
Johnny Edwards LaRue
1965 was Rose’s breakout year moving from a .645 OPS to a .828 OPS, boosted by .43 gain in batting average, it also was Cárdenas career high (as a regular) in slugging percentage with a .431 vs. the leagues average for shortstops which was a pitiful .309.
The real offensive surprise of 1965 came from the 3rd base position, the 1964 Reds 3rd baseman created only 3.36 runs per every 27 outs, in 1965 that increased to 5.79 runs per 27 outs. This change came strictly from one change the insertion of Deron Johnson at the 3rd base position from his prior position at 1st base. This move begins a pattern that continues to this day.
Fielding wise it didn't exactly work out very well, here are the 5 worst fielding percentage numbers for Reds 3rd baseman since WW 2
Code:
FIELDING PERCENTAGE YEAR PCT E
1 Dan Driessen 1974 .915 24
2 Tony Perez 1970 .923 35
3 Tony Perez 1969 .937 32
4 Grady Hatton 1947 .938 26
5 Deron Johnson 1965 .948 22
You would think that the failed move of Johnson would have taught the Reds, or the Perez attempt, Or Driessen.... yet many still wondered if Kearns could do it... anyway I digress.
Gordy Coleman was a slick fielding good guy who manned first base in 1965; it also was the only year he hit over .300, a feat that really helped his Ob% which was never anything to really talk about. It was the young Latin phenom that shared the position with Gordy, Young Tony Perez was on base challenged, but showed power that was not to be ignored.
Everyone knows Frank, .296/.386/.540/.925 and Vada .305/.352/.484/.836 just like they know Dunn and Griffey. In 1965 Tommy Harper was a fleet young corner outfielder with a bright future ahead of him, his 35 steals was the high-water mark for steals for the Reds in the 60's and he, Pinson and Robinson led the national league in outfielder fielding percentage.
The catching in 1965 was as much a surprise as it is this year; Johnny Edwards Ohio State alum had first come up with the Reds in 1961 and 1965 was his peak year in MLB (once again at the age of 27) his .827 OPS in 1965 was a bigger surprise than his .553 the following season. Don Pavletich caught a 3rd of the games and smashed the ball, turning out a .863 OPS in191 at bats.
One note is that roster management was a bit tighter in those days; the Reds only had 10 guys with over 100 at bats the whole season. This seasons Reds already have 14 players with at least 100 at bats.
Career years from 3rd, catcher and shortstop, plus established stars and emerging talent, what's not to love?
The rote Reds fan answer to that is almost always found in the pitching, like 1956 and this year the pitching was the key to the team’s final place in the standings. Sammy Ellis and Jim Maloney anchored the staff, each throwing more than 250 innings and winning more than 20 games, the only time since 1941 that 2 or more Reds pitchers had 20 wins in a season.
However the rest of the staff wasn't all that and a bag of chips, John Tsitouris, Jim O'Toole and Joey Jay were disappointing and on the whole the Reds walked 1 batter more every nine innings then they did in 1964. By the end of the season the Reds staff was .034 below the league average in ERA, leaving them locked in at number nine in a ten-team league in ERA.
This reemerging theme of the slugging team and almost there pitching is like a bad tattoo to most long time Reds fans.
To maybe bring it more into perspective the 1965 team is a lot like the 1977 team.
Big offense and almost there pitching.
Code:
ERA YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
Reds 1965 -.34 3.88 3.54
Reds 1977 -.30 4.22 3.91
Reds 1978 -.24 3.82 3.58
1965 was good year, but the pitching was only good enough for a 89 wins in a season that first place went to a team that won 97 games.
One note is the final standings was season, 4 games short of the Pythagorean W-L which came out to 93-69, that and the last week of the season is what lost Dick Sisler his job.
But it still was a good season, with the Reds drawing a million for the first time since 1961.
But also good enough to tease the Reds into selling off Robinson, hiring Don Heffner, moving Rose, Helms and Johnson around and generally getting worse in their attempt to get better.
This year the Reds team are on pace to beat that team in runs scored, however the staff is now sporting a 5.24 ERA to the leagues 4.27.
Just imagine what half a run means over 162 games, then imagine the Reds with a 4.6 ERA at this point in the season, that would be good enough for 80 more runs scored than allowed instead of 40 runs in the hole.
Re: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate
If you don't have time to read this completely, don't worry - it will be archived.....
Excellent job again and as usual WOY.....
Re: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate
I've always been interested in a comparsion of the 1964 Reds and 1965 Reds. The 1964 Reds used superior pitching, surrendering the fewest runs in the league despite having Crosley Field as a home park, to win 92 games and fall one game short of the NL pennant. The 1965 Reds had a fantastic offense but won only 89 games because of pitching shortcomings. If the Reds had been able to combine their 1964 pitching staff with their 1965 offense, they would've won, what, 105, 110 games?
Re: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heath
If you don't have time to read this completely, don't worry - it will be archived.....
Excellent job again and as usual WOY.....
Good...my eyes started to cross.
Re: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate
It's these numbers that make me think the reds could make a big jump in the number of wins they have next year....as long as they don't screw up the offense. All they have to do is a build a pitching staff that is close to league average. gettting the staff close to league average may seem impossible, but i think it's doable (since the ASB they are probably close to LA). Don't break up the offense. It's fun and it works.
