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Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/1...nati-reds.html
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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Reds are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
Homer Bailey (5.017): $9.3MM
Mike Leake (4.000): $5.9MM
Aroldis Chapman (3.034): $4.6MM
Ryan Hanigan (5.077): $2.3MM
Chris Heisey (3.157): $1.7MM
Alfredo Simon (4.142): $1.6MM
Xavier Paul (3.119): $1MM
Sam LeCure (3.072): $1MM
Corky Miller (4.112): $700K
Bailey posted the best season of his career in 2013, and stayed healthy for the second consecutive year. 28 in May, he's due a large raise for his contract year. Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point. If the Reds don't see Bailey as a potential $100MM pitcher for them, they'll have to decide whether to trade him now, trade him during the season, or just let him walk as a free agent. Brandon Phillips might be the Reds' preferred salary to clear this winter, but Bailey is another option and would bring a much larger return. Replacing his production in the rotation is the hard part.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
I know you were highlighting the portion of the article relating to a potential Bailey extension, but I had forgotten about Chapman's strange contract that allows him to go through arbitration while still collecting his scheduled salary as a bonus. In my mind, this reinforces the idea that he should be traded if he is not going to start. He's going to get expensive very quickly. Maybe the Tigers would deal a very good prospect for Chapman? Maybe even Castellanos? They have to be looking to upgrade their bullpen after watching late leads evaporate multiple times in the ALCS.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Latos is under contract for 7.25M in 2014
Under those projections, Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Latos would make 11M than in 2013.
There's your Arroyo money for 2014 to hold the rest of the staff + Chapman together. Chapman's case will be interesting.
Hanigan 2.3M and Heisey 1.7M :eek:
Corky - was that a joke?
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Originally Posted by
oregonred
Latos is under contract for 7.25M in 2014
Under those projections, Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Latos would make 11M than in 2013.
There's your Arroyo money for 2014 to hold the rest of the staff + Chapman together. Chapman's case will be interesting.
Hanigan 2.3M and Heisey 1.7M :eek:
Corky - was that a joke?
The Reds need to decide if they want Latos or Bailey to lead the staff for the next half decade plus. Once they make a decision, they need to get that guy signed immediately and trade the other pitcher for a big return ASAP. The team simply can't afford both guys moving forward.
Also, Heisey is rapidly moving towards DFA territory. I like him, but I don't know if he's worth $2M+. It's a drop in the bucket in the scheme of things, but there is such a thing as death by a thousand cuts.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Who knows. Inexplicably they gave a multiyear contract to Logan Ondrusek and Jack Hanrahan. Maybe Walt can coerse a drunkin' Corky to ink a 2 yr/5M extension...
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Originally Posted by
oregonred
Who knows. Inexplicably they gave a multiyear contract to Logan Ondrusek and Jack Hanrahan. Maybe Walt can coerse a drunkin' Corky to ink a 2 yr/5M extension...
Corky will be waiting for Cano (and maybe Kershaw too) to sign to set his market.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point
I think this would lead us to trading Bailey this season. Just did some quick math and if we give both Bailey and Latos similar extensions now using the 5 for 85 mentions in the article. We would be at $110M for 2015 already and that only includes Votto, Phillips, Hannahan, Bruce, Ludwick, Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Marshall, and Broxton. That does not include arb eligible players or FAs either. Not only that, but then you have to worry about extensions to Cueto and Leake after that season too.
I think with the hiring of Price as manager, Chapman has to be moved to the rotation, and then you have to trade Bailey. He is going to be too expensive, especially when you have Stephenson coming through the ranks. If Chapman doesn't work out, there are plenty of journeymen out there that can fill the gap. Heck, I remember a few years ago when LeCure was starting due to injuries. Either way, Bailey gets moved for a bat and saves this team money.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
I think it's going to be fascinating to see what happens with both BP and our SP. Assuming the Reds are interested in dealing them, the 2B market may be frozen until Cano signs and the SP market may be frozen until David Price is traded.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
I m takin Latos over Bailey no wait..............that is a tough one.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
I don't think Bailey has any intention of signing with the Reds, so the choice should be easy.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Originally Posted by
HokieRed
I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.
Well, you can try and preempt by making a fat offer but craziness like the Lincecum contract and the rumored Kershaw price tag makes that very expensive. I agree - the plan should be to develop and plan as if neither will remain but hope one can be persuaded.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Originally Posted by
HokieRed
I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.
Either should sign a close to market deal unless he can guarantee that his arm won't go out on their next pitch.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
The Reds have until December 2 to offer contracts to - or non-tender - their arbitration eligible players. Putting aside major players, who will undoubtedly get contract offers, the group includes:
Hanigan (trade bait), Heisey (?), Simon (should get contract tender), Paul (?), Lecure (should get contract tender).
IMO neither Heisey nor Paul is a lock to get a contract tender. Heisey is projected (see opening post) to get $1.7 million in arbitration, I think that makes him vulnerable. Paul, at $1 million, less vulnerable but no lock.
I think this December 2 date could expedite trades. Teams like to acquire arbitration eligible players before the exchange of numbers, as I understand, so the new team can control the process.
The Reds currently have 41 men on their 40 man roster (unofficially) because Schumaker isn't formally signed up yet. Given this 12/2 deadline, which is immediately after Thanksgiving weekend, I think we may be in for some more player movement soon.
At the least, Hanigan's situation could be resolved because I'd think his new team will want to acquire him before the 12/2 deadline. If the Reds don't want to pay Heisey his likely arb salary, they could deal him by 12/2 also.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
If all it takes is $9 mm to keep Bailey this year, pay him. You can trade him at the deadline if we're out of the running or grab a pick if he walks at the end of the year.
He'll be in his contract year, hopefully he'll make the best of it for the REDS.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
[QUOTE=oregonred;2993786]Latos is under contract for 7.25M in 2014
Under those projections, Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Latos would make 11M than in 2013.
There's your Arroyo money for 2014 to hold the rest of the staff + Chapman together. Chapman's case will be interesting.
Hanigan 2.3M and Heisey 1.7M :eek:
Corky - was that a joke?[/QUOTE]
:laugh:
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Salary arbitration filings are due tomorrow, January 14. Don't know the details, but this appears to begin the arbitration process in a formal sense.
Then the salary arbitration figures are exchanged on Friday, January 17.
So it's possible we could soon see some Reds signings to avoid the process, although obviously these cases can settle at any time before decision. Hearings begin February 1.
I'm unaware of any Reds players having avoided arbitration by agreement so far.
There are six arbitration eligible players remaining on the roster, Bailey, Chapman, Lecure, Simon, Heisey, and Leake.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Interesting that Hanigan's extension with the Rays pegged his salary this season fairly close to this projection ($2.75MM v. $2.7MM).
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Since they're "broke" this should be interesting.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Happens every year with this team it seems. I think they are saying they're 'broke' b/c they are budgeting their top end offer for Bailey to extend, and them being 'broke' on the FA market probably has a lot to do with arbitration projections.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
https://twitter.com/ctrent
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#reds sign deal with chris Heisey, avoiding arbitration
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
https://twitter.com/jcrasnick
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OF Chris Heisey signs for $1.76M to avoid arbitration with #reds.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Well they pre-empted Heisey's arbitration...least important of the 6 but it's one down.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Only in baseball does a Chris Heisey get a 33% raise.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Originally Posted by
Billy_Bearcat
Only in baseball does a Chris Heisey get a 33% raise.
Rajai Davis just got 10 million for two years. Chris Heisey will have a chance at a nice payday in a couple of years.
Davis has a career OPS of .693, Heisey's is .741.
It's just the economics of baseball these days.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
https://twitter.com/m_sheldon
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Updated that it's a two-year, $3.05 million deal for LeCure
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal
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#Reds avoid arbitration with RHP Alfredo Simon. He will earn $1.5M.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 3s
Deadline for reaching arbitration deals before exchange of figures is 1 p.m. ET.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 2m
#Padres’ Kennedy ($6.1M) and #Orioles’ Norris ($5.3M) are comps to #Cubs’ Samardzija. So are Leake and Medlen, whose deals are not done.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
https://twitter.com/BHSCouncil/statu...43783757099008
Reds and Mike Leake avoid arb.
That leaves only Bailey and Chapman.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Reds, Mike Leake Avoid Arbtration
By Zach Links [January 17 at 12:19pm CST]
The Reds and Mike Leake have avoided arbitration, according to the Beverly Hills Sports Council (via Twitter). He'll get $5.925MM plus incentives, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links).
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...-homer-bailey/
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Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said the Reds came close to getting a deal done with Homer Bailey before the 1 p.m. deadline to exchange salary numbers.
“We talked a one-year and a multiyear deal,” he said. “We’ll keep talking.”
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS
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Homer bailey files at $11.6M, reds $8.7M
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Chapman files at $5.4M, reds $4.6M
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Originally Posted by
PepperJack
Looks like Homer will probably make around $10.15M and Aroldis in the area of $5M :)
I'd say things are coming to a head with Homer. If he compromises on a 1year deal or goes through the arb process then he's gone by the end of the year (or sooner).
If Walt pulls a huge miracle and gets an extension, I'll guess something in the 5/$80-85M range with a sixth year option that pushes it right at $100M (or a little beyond) or possibly six or seven years with a year or two that he can opt out of.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
Chapman and the Reds are close, they should settle around $5 million. Looks easy.
Bailey and the Reds are almost $3 million apart. Big gulf between them, even on a one year deal.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Reds Discussing Long-Term Deal With Homer Bailey
By Jeff Todd [January 17 at 8:59pm CST]
Discussing the team's inability to reach agreement with pitcher Homer Bailey before today's deadline to submit arbitration figures, Reds GM Walt Jocketty indicated that the sides were discussing a long-term extension, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. He further indicated that the club was not concerned with the situations of either of its two prominent remaining arbitration cases, Bailey and closer Aroldis Chapman.
Though the sides have reportedly had previous discussions on a significant extension, Jocketty raised expectations that something would get worked out. As the GM explained:
"In Bailey's case, we were working on a multi-year [deal]. The agent [Casey Close] has [Clayton] Kersaw and he has [Masahiro] Tanaka also, so he's been tied up with that. We just didn't anticipate getting it done, but we exchanged numbers in the event and we will continue to negotiate and hopefully get something done before the hearing date."
Jocketty further indicated that he is "optimistic" about reaching a long-term deal. Discussing the terms of the contract, he said:
"I just think it depends on where they feel the market settles in on free-agent pitchers. Hopefully, we're not too far with our estimate and with their estimate about the market going forward. What it will be based on is what market for a guy like Bailey will be in the future."
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Originally Posted by
Kc61
Chapman and the Reds are close, they should settle around $5 million. Looks easy.
Sign him and shop him. Add $4.25 Million in bonus money and Chappy is one of the reasons the Reds can't afford a bat IMO. If it comes down to keeping Bailey, Latos or Chapman, he's the one to deal. $9.25 this year, next year will be year 2 of arb and even though the $3 Million bonus goes away, I'd expect his total cost to top $10 Million. Year 3 of arb will see him near $12 Million IMO. Even though no long term deal, you're looking at around $30 Million or so earmarked for saves over the next three years. If you want to make some salary room for other needs, there is where it should come from.
Don't give him away though. One guy who can address a weak area on the big league team, a young power arm to mix back in the pen and a top 100 prospect would be needed to pull the trigger.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis
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Originally Posted by
mth123
Sign him and shop him. Add $4.25 Million in bonus money and Chappy is one of the reasons the Reds can't afford a bat IMO. If it comes down to keeping Bailey, Latos or Chapman, he's the one to deal. $9.25 this year, next year will be year 2 of arb and even though the $3 Million bonus goes away, I'd expect his total cost to top $10 Million. Year 3 of arb will see him near $12 Million IMO. Even though no long term deal, you're looking at around $30 Million or so earmarked for saves over the next three years. If you want to make some salary room for other needs, there is where it should come from.
Don't give him away though. One guy who can address a weak area on the big league team, a young power arm to mix back in the pen and a top 100 prospect would be needed to pull the trigger.
I'm not sure how the Reds set it up, but most teams don't count signing bonuses of amateur players against payroll. It usually comes out of the player development part of the budget. I'm pretty sure the $1.25M bonus this season for Chapman is not being counted against payroll, and I wouldn't be surprised if the $3M isn't counted either. But I'm not sure.
I'm still for trading Chapman for the right return, pretty much what you mentioned, but I don't think he hurts the payroll as much as you're saying.