Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jojo
He's been a back end starter up to this point in his career. That's not a controversial statement.
Meh. I don't really have a dog in this argument.
Dude is still young. Jumped to the pro's right out of college. Has a nice arsenal of pitches. Has a good bat. He is what he is with the potential to get better. Lots of location and speed changing pitchers have had success over the years - Maddux, Glavine, etc. Not saying he'll be those guys. But he has plenty of time.
To me what will be interesting is if some of the farm system pitchers really make strides this year, and how it will affect management's thinking about the future and the payroll.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Nice start for Leake last night. Just wanted to give him some props as I'm sure he'd be taking hits here if he had been roughed up.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
I give Leake very little credit for last night's performance... Mesoraco was the mastermind behind Leake's start
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Nasty_Boy
I give Leake very little credit for last night's performance... Mesoraco was the mastermind behind Leake's start
Well played:thumbup:
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Why not try Leake in Left Field? Dude brought the bat last night.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Nasty_Boy
I give Leake very little credit for last night's performance... Mesoraco was the mastermind behind Leake's start
If Hanigan's behind the plate, that's a perfect game.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Always Red
If Hanigan's behind the plate, that's a perfect game.
Probably would have had a HR too instead of the triple.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jimbo
Nice start for Leake last night. Just wanted to give him some props as I'm sure he'd be taking hits here if he had been roughed up.
I agree! That was closer to the pitcher I saw in college and was very impressed by during those games and was excited we drafted.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Caught just a short clip of Leake after the game on channel 9. He said he just has to learn to trust his stuff and not pitch afraiid.
I thought that last part was telling. I remember Homer pitching that same way, that is, having the confidence your stuff is good enough to get MLB hitters out so throw your pitches with conviction and don't nibble.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Still not a fan, but he carved up the Phillies almost as well as Homer did. Nice outing.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
I love Mike Leake. My 2nd-favorite Reds starter to watch work (behind JC). I always have a soft spot for pitchers who can hit and look like all-around baseball players. (Where have you gone, Micah Owings?) Plus I like Leake's high pants, high socks old-school look.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
redssince75
Plus I like Leake's high pants, high socks old-school look.
So, I'm not the only one!
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
I've been a big fan of Leake over the last few years (was really pumping him up last year) but after his first few starts this year I thought maybe a change was needed for him (whether it was conditioning or something else). It was really nice to see him bounce back with this kind of game. Hopefully it gets his confidence up.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Don't get me wrong, I like Leake, but if Cingrani comes out of the gate and proves himself, I almost have to think that Leake will either move to the pen or with a couple of strong performances (like last night) he could be very good trade bait and get us something strong in return.
But to get back to the topic of this thread, he was brilliant last night on the mound and at the plate. I give him props.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
It seems to me that Leake is very much at the mercy of umpires, more so than most pitchers. He doesn't really have swing and miss stuff. And unlike Arroyo, he doesn't get by on deception and confusion. Rather, he's got that moving two-seamer that he can throw to either side. And when he's getting calls on the corners, he can be really effective. But when he's not getting the corners, he ends up either walking guys, giving up homers (because he gets too much of the plate) or both.
I was just looking at the plate discipline stats for pitchers on Fangraphs. I think it's pretty interesting stuff. This is 2011-13.
Code:
Name O-Swg% Z-Swg% Swing% O-Cnt% Z-Cnt% Cntct% Zone% F-Stk% SwStr%
Johnny Cueto 33.0 % 68.1 % 47.8 % 72.0 % 88.2 % 81.7 % 42.0 % 59.6 % 8.6 %
Mat Latos 33.0 % 65.0 % 48.0 % 66.0 % 85.5 % 78.3 % 46.7 % 62.1 % 10.1 %
Bronson Arroyo 31.1 % 64.3 % 46.2 % 78.0 % 90.9 % 86.1 % 45.5 % 65.4 % 6.3 %
Homer Bailey 30.7 % 68.4 % 48.1 % 64.7 % 88.2 % 80.1 % 46.1 % 64.3 % 9.4 %
Mike Leake 30.5 % 64.8 % 45.2 % 72.2 % 90.6 % 83.5 % 43.0 % 60.2 % 7.3 %
Without more analysis, I'm not sure what meaningful variances are, but a few things stand out to me with Leake. Of the Reds 5 SP:
- He's got the lowest O-Swing% (guys are least likely to chase his pitches out of the zone)
- He's also got a low Z-Swing% (guys are more apt to take strikes against him)
- He's got a high Contact% (when guys do swing, they are more likely to make contact against him)
I think this generally supports the narrative I laid out above. Leake is most successful when he can get guys to take that fastball that runs back over the plate.