Predict their stats for 2013
It's getting to be the time of year where we're desperate for more to discuss. So... predict the 2013 stats for the Reds starting rotation and starting eight position players. List 'em in the order you think they will appear in Dusty's standard lineup and pitching staff, as I do here (if you'd prefer to use more up to date stats, obviously feel free -- I'm too tired to think that way at the moment).
Shin-Soo Choo .300, 25 HR, 25 SB
Brandon Phillips .280, 20 HR, 27 SB
Joey Votto .340, 28 HR, 122 RBI
Ryan Ludwick .250, 30 HR, 97 RBI
Jay Bruce .255, 37 HR, 101 RBI
Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
Zack Cozart .235, 12 HR, 43 RBI
Ryan Hanigan .276, 3 HR, 31 RBI
Mat Latos 18-10, 3.15 ERA, 205 K
Homer Bailey 15-7, 3.77 ERA, 182 K
Johnny Cueto 12-14, 3.93 ERA, 165 K
Aroldis Chapman 9-4, 4.14 ERA, 207 K, 18 SV
Bronson Arroyo 7-12, 4.89 ERA, 123 K
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Choo- .274, 18HR, 23SB
BP- .291, 24HR, 20SB
Votto- .338, 31HR, 102RBI, 52 doubles
Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 107RBI
Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB
Cueto- 7-5, 3.63 68K
Latos- 18-7, 2.98 212K
Bailey- 19-10, 3.47 201K
Arroyo- 12-11, 3.95 127K
Leake- 9-7, 4.04 84K
Chapman- 7-5, 4.27, I think he starts in the pen and dominates but gets thrown into the rotation at some point and struggles just a bit before picking it up and helping Latos and Bailey carry us into the playoffs.
Broxton- 5-4, 2.59, 38saves
and just for fun: Hannahan- .252, 11HR, 24RBI and ends up with about the same amount of starts at 3rd as Frazier.
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Choo- .294, 16HR, 23SB
BP- .271, 24HR, 15SB
Votto- .328, 25HR, 105RBI, 52 doubles
Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 97RBI
Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB
I simply do not see BP getting 20+ SB's after not having that many since 2009.
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Bill James Handbook 2013 (Published in October):
Choo: .283/.374/.815, 16 HR, 18 SBs
BP: .277/.327/.759, 20 HRs, 16 SBs
Votto: .312/.422/.960, 27 HRs, 8 SBs
Ludwick: .254/.327/.776, 19 HRs, 1 SB
Bruce: .263/.342/.860, 36 HRs, 9 SBs
Frazier: .263/.325/.802, 15 HRs, 6 SBs
Hanigan: .275/.367/.725, 3 HRs, 0 SBs
Cozart: .260/.308/.723, 15 HRs, 9 SBs
Pitchers:
Cueto: 14-10, 3.52, 169 Ks
Latos: 15-8, 3.16, 194 Ks
Chapman: 4-3, 2.42, 98 Ks, 48 saves
Bailey: 12-12, 3.86, 172 Ks
Arroyo: 12-12, 3.88, 136 Ks
Leake: 9-11, 4.15, 119 Ks
Marshall: 4-3, 3.05, 57 Ks
Broxton: 4-3, 2.90, 71 Ks, 20 saves
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedEye
It's getting to be the time of year where we're desperate for more to discuss. So... predict the 2013 stats for the Reds starting rotation and starting eight position players. List 'em in the order you think they will appear in Dusty's standard lineup and pitching staff, as I do here (if you'd prefer to use more up to date stats, obviously feel free -- I'm too tired to think that way at the moment).
Shin-Soo Choo .300, 25 HR, 25 SB
Brandon Phillips .280, 20 HR, 27 SB
Joey Votto .340, 28 HR, 122 RBI
Ryan Ludwick .250, 30 HR, 97 RBI
Jay Bruce .255, 37 HR, 101 RBI
Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
Zack Cozart .235, 12 HR, 43 RBI
Ryan Hanigan .276, 3 HR, 31 RBI
Mat Latos 18-10, 3.15 ERA, 205 K
Homer Bailey 15-7, 3.77 ERA, 182 K
Johnny Cueto 12-14, 3.93 ERA, 165 K
Aroldis Chapman 9-4, 4.14 ERA, 207 K, 18 SV
Bronson Arroyo 7-12, 4.89 ERA, 123 K
Just curious...why the down year for Cueto? The rest I agree with except I think Votto will see a power spike this year
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Off the top of my head because it's more fun that way:
Hanigan - .270/.340/.360
Mesoraco - .250/.320/.410
Votto - .340/.470/.550
Phillips - .300/.340/.420
Cozart - .240/.290/.400
Frazier - .250/.310/.430
Hannahan - .250/.310/380
Donald - .240/.290/.330
Burriss - .230/.280/.300
Ludwick - .250/.320/.440
Choo - .280/.370/.440
Bruce - .260/.340/.540
Heisey - .260/.310/.400
Paul - .240/.300/.380
Hamilton - .250/.320/.330
Cueto - 190 IP, 3.30 ERA, 150 Ks
Latos - 210 IP, 3.40 ERA, 190 Ks
Bailey - 150 IP, 3.70 ERA, 120 Ks
Arroyo - 200 IP, 4.20 ERA, 140 Ks
Chapman (SP) - 80 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks
Leake (SP) - 120 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks
Villareal (SP) - 10 IP, 6.00 ERA, 5 Ks
Corcino - 10 IP, 5.00 ERA, 8 Ks
Broxton - 40 IP, 3.50 ERA, 35 Ks
Marshall - 70 IP, 2.80 ERA, 65 Ks
Hoover - 60 IP, 2.50 ERA, 70 Ks
Massett - 20 IP, 5.50 ERA, 15 Ks
Simon - 60 IP, 3.50 ERA, 60 Ks
Gorzelanny - 30 IP, 3.30 ERA, 25 Ks
Chapman (RP) - 30 IP, 2.80 ERA, 40 Ks
Leake (RP) - 20 IP, 3.70 ERA, 15 Ks
Ondrusek - 15 IP, 4.30 ERA, 10 Ks
Cingrani - 25 IP, 1.50 ERA, 25 Ks
Lotzkar - 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 8 Ks
Villareal (RP) - 5 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4 Ks
I've got no idea if those innings add up and I don't care so don't call me out on it. Somebody is going to end up getting some PAs in the outfield because of injuries in the first half of the year, but I'm not sure who gets those PAs at this point. I'm predicting we sign Gorzellany (a guy can dream) and that Arredondo and Redmond are casualties of late Spring trades...
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WVRedsFan
Just curious...why the down year for Cueto? The rest I agree with except I think Votto will see a power spike this year
No particular reason other than I have a feeling that Lato and Bailey are up and Cueto is down in 2013. Pretty scientific. :D
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedEye
I assume Cueto gets hurt in this prediction?
yes
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Choo OPS+ 118
Phillips OPS+ 105
Votto OPS+ 140
Ludwick OPS+ 102
Bruce OPS+ 127
Frazier OPS+ 98
Cozart OPS+ 90
Hanigan OPS+ 77
Mesaroco OPS+ 115
Cueto ERA+ 130
Latos ERA+ 120
Bailey ERA+ 105
Arroyo ERA+ 88
Chapman ERA+ 135
Broxton ERA+ 140
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
I am excited to see the boost that Choo gets playing at Great American Ball Park.
I imagine that it is going to be Ryan Ludwick-esq but he is starting at a better spot than Ludwick did.
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Shin-Soo Choo .308, 24 HR,18 SB
Brandon Phillips .272, 17 HR, 15 SB
Joey Votto .329, 35 HR, 119 RBI
Ryan Ludwick .269, 26 HR, 86 RBI
Jay Bruce .272, 39 HR, 112 RBI
Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
Zack Cozart .256, 17 HR, 58 RBI
Ryan Hanigan .276, 6 HR, 38 RBI
Mat Latos 17-8, 3.11 ERA, 199 K
Homer Bailey 18-9, 3.65 ERA, 171 K
Johnny Cueto 19-8, 3.25 ERA, 182 K
Aroldis Chapman 12-8, 3.82 ERA, 225 K
Bronson Arroyo 8-10, 4.74 ERA, 114 K
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Shin-Soo Choo - .305/.400/.485, 20 HR
Brandon Phillips - .300/.340/.445, 18 HR
Joey Votto - .345/.465/.550 - 31 HR
Ryan Ludwick - .270/.335/.500, 25 HR
Jay Bruce - .270/.350/.540 - 37 HR
Todd Frazier - .275/.335/.480 - 22 HR
Ryan Hanigan - .280/.350/.380 - 4 HR
Zack Cozart -.265/.315/.400 - 16 HR
Devin Mesoraco - .250/.310/.450 - 14 HR
Mat Latos - 215 IP, 205 K, 2.85 ERA
Johnny Cueto - 205 IP, 175 K, 2.90 ERA
Aroldis Chapman - 150 IP, 195 K, 3.45 ERA
Homer Bailey - 200 IP, 170 K, 3.50 ERA
Bronson Arroyo - 200 IP, 140 K, 4.15 ERA
Re: Predict their stats for 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by
OnBaseMachine
Shin-Soo Choo - .305/.400/.485, 20 HR
Brandon Phillips - .300/.340/.445, 18 HR
Joey Votto - .345/.465/.550 - 31 HR
Ryan Ludwick - .270/.335/.500, 25 HR
Jay Bruce - .270/.350/.540 - 37 HR
Todd Frazier - .275/.335/.480 - 22 HR
Ryan Hanigan - .280/.350/.380 - 4 HR
Zack Cozart -.265/.315/.400 - 16 HR
Devin Mesoraco - .250/.310/.450 - 14 HR
Mat Latos - 215 IP, 205 K, 2.85 ERA
Johnny Cueto - 205 IP, 175 K, 2.90 ERA
Aroldis Chapman - 150 IP, 195 K, 3.45 ERA
Homer Bailey - 200 IP, 170 K, 3.50 ERA
Bronson Arroyo - 200 IP, 140 K, 4.15 ERA
This looks pretty close to what I'd predict. My only differences would be fewer innings and a little more struggles for Cueto. 190IP and 3.75 ERA and I think Chapman is going to struggle multiple times through the order. 140 IP, 150K and 4.75 ERA. He picks up 10 saves with an August move back to the pen.
I'll add Mike Leake with 17 Starts, 130 IP and a 4.15 ERA.