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Originally Posted by
TRF
doug, he hasn't produced. period. SLG tells the story. Francisco was the perfect example of how misleading LD% is. nothing about the stat says power. it's completely nebulous. a soft liner to 2B is counted. That isn't power. A screaming liner past the 2B is power, and it translates directly to his SLG. And SLG is a stat that Stubbs has NEVER dominated in. Never. This is year three of you defending the top pick, like you did with Bailey.
I think we are having some misunderstanding here. Line drive % isn't indicative of power, its indicative of making solid contact. Drew is making solid contact this year, something he hasn't done in the past. He is also playing in a league that drastically depletes guys power throughout the entire history of the league. My contention isn't that Stubbs is going to ever hit 25 HR, just that his season that is, is much better than it looks at first glance because of how he is going about it. He won't ever dominate a slugging line, the guy is a centerfielder. Centerfielders who dominate the slugging line are first ballot hall of famers named Griffey, Snider and Mays. Drew isn't that guy, never will be and never was said to be. It has nothing to do with defending him becuase he was a top pick, it has everything to do with defending him for being lambasted for things he shouldn't be lambasted for.
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Now I'm going to make an observation and a suggestion. The observation is you love the Reds so much you look for light in the darkest of tunnels. Especially in regards to the top picks since you began following the Reds. You have often pointed out that the Reds scouts must be seeing something the rest of us don't. I understand you speak to scouts somewhat regularly, which I find incredibly cool. You fail to take into account that they can and do make mistakes. That's just my opinion.
Even I thought they made a mistake when they took Stubbs, so I think you are labeling me as something I am not. I do look for the bright side of things becuase most often others don't, especially with prospects when guys are young and can change with the snap of the fingers if the right thing clicks. There is a GIANT difference between Drew Stubbs 2006/2007 and Drew Stubbs 2008. A lot of people are not seeing it.
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Now for my suggestion. Don't be such a homer. It's ok to not like a pick AFTER it's been made too. I get that you didn't want Stubbs. It's ok to take a look at his body of work, appreciate what he does well, defense, and critique what he does poorly, hit.
Drew hasn't hit poorly this year though and thats the point. A lot of people are overlooking what he has done this year by simply looking at the statline (in the FSL nonetheless) and not at how he has gone about having that statline and how those things could transfer into future productivity at higher levels.
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M2 countered your argument completely, and your response was the equivalent of taking your ball and going home. When I started on these boards my stat experience was limited to say the least. I'm no where near the level of M2, Steel, RMR or even you. But I can pull back and see the larger picture. That picture right now says that Stubbs was a bad, bad pick. His performance is making it worse. And worst of all, Lincecum's performance seals the deal.
I didn't take my ball and go home, but the rest of his argument stems on the belief that he doesn't think Stubbs can do this or that because he hasn't and others had so that is why they did. My belief is that Drew Stubbs is different now than he was from previous years at the plate but we aren't seeing it fully because of the league he is in and once he gets out of the league, it will show itself some more.
As for the pick, good/bad/otherwise.... doesn't matter at this point. Its done and it has been done for over 2 years now.