The Truth About Adam Dunn and Strikeouts

I keep hearing Narron ragging on Dunn again about his K's again. They even brought in a hitting coach who's main goal is to correct this problem, but even if he can do it, is it worth it? Here's what I've come up with...

Let's first establish that Dunn was very unlucky last year. I accidentally deleted it, but his BABIP was like .277. Hitters have some control over BABIP, but since we're only trying to measure the effect of reducing strikeouts, all the other variable should be the same. I did the same thing for power by weighting the adjusted hits to the chance of each one becoming a single, double, triple, or homerun based on his previous three year outcome. Here they are in case you were wondering...

singles: .4688% doubles: .2236% triples: .0048% HR: .3029%

That gave him these adjusted stats...

683PA 561AB 327BIP 194K .244/.376/.524/.900 .280isoP 64singles 31 doubles 0triples 42HR

Let's say it's a perfect world and Jacoby is able to hack off 30 strikeouts without affecting Dunn's power at all. Here's his new numbers with the thirty extra ball put into play...

683PA 561AB 357BIP 164K .259/.388/.553/.941 .294isoP 68singles 32doubles 1triple 44HR

That kind of increase in production would be great, but everyone always argues that telling Dunn to cut back on his swing takes away the best part of his game...power. That makes sense, so I changed around the percentages of each hit outcome by lowering his HR%. The extra BIP's turned into singles, doubles, and triples, and I kept the same ratio between singles and extra base hits. Here's one possible effect of shortening Dunn's swing...

singles: .5100% doubles: .2437% triples: .0047% HR: .2416%

Here's his numbers according to the new rates...

683PA 561AB 362BIP .259/.388/.512/.900 .253isoP 145H 74singles 35doubles 1triple 35HR

Interestingly enough, that came out to the exact same OPS as Dunn's numbers without the reduction in K's. I hadn't planned that, but it worked out crazy perfect. This shows that even if Dunn loses some of his beastly isoP, the extra OBP and batting average will make him basically the same caliber hitter, actually better considering OBP is worth more than SLG.

Considering they've been threatening Dunn with this crap for the last couple years with out having any effect, I still have my doubts about whether or not Jacoby can even teach Dunn how to "play the game the right way", but if Dunn can manage to cut back on the whiffs a little, it's pretty likely that he will be a better offensive player next season, contrary to what a lot of people believe. But it's probably not going to be a huge increase in production, so it's basically up to the coaches on whether or not they believe it's a worthwhile cause to change the approach of a guy who's been in the league for six years. I figurd this would give me a clear answer, but I'm still kind of on the fence. At least Jerry Narron's got a clear stance on the issue. :beerme:

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Originally Posted by Superdude

Let's first establish that Dunn was very unlucky last year. I accidentally deleted it, but his BABIP was like .277

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How about we first establish that he wasn't unlucky but rather he was thwarted by the defensive shift........

BABIP has to be one of my least favorite stats ever.

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Originally Posted by reds44

BABIP has to be one of my least favorite stats ever.

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Why?

It's a great predicter of the future, as it frequently (at least with pitchers) determines whether they have pitched well or simply lucky.

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Originally Posted by Superdude

I
Let's first establish that Dunn was very unlucky last year.

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Well if I was batting and saw the entire left side of the infield standing between 2B and 1B, i WOULD go the other way. If you do hit it towards SS and still get thrown out, Thats unlucky!!!.. Trying to pull EVERYTHING between 2B and 1B with that shift isn't unlucky its stupid and selfish. If he cared at all, he would go the other way lke Ryan Howard does.. you dont see other teams shift on Ryan Howard because he uses his power the other way!
and to take a 3rd strike when its rightover the outside corner, instead of swinging at it, is also 1) not protecting the plate to either foul it off and maybe get the pitcher to make a mistake on the next pitch, it just shows how much a player doesnt care.. unlucky isnt what Dunn does.. he needs a different attitude

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How about we first establish that he wasn't unlucky but rather he was thwarted by the defensive shift

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Was last year the first time they heavily shifted on him? I can't remember. That could be one explanation, but either way it doesn't really make a difference. I just needed his BABIP to be a set number and figured his three year average would be a good idea.

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Originally Posted by redsfan4445

Well if I was batting and saw the entire left side of the infield standing between 2B and 1B, i WOULD go the other way.

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The problem with that approach is that when a defense shifts over like that, the pitcher pounds the batter inside, to increase the likelihood that the batter will pull the ball into the defense. It's real tough to go the opposite way with inside pitches.

The other thing is that Adam's game isn't built around "finding holes" through the infield. It's about driving the ball into the outfield. When he's hitting the way he's capable of, the infielders are essentially superfluous. That being the case, it really shouldn't matter to him where they are positioned.

I just figured out that I screwed up on something. It doesn't change the numbers too much, but I'll try and fix it sometime today.

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Originally Posted by Redsland

The problem with that approach is that when a defense shifts over like that, the pitcher pounds the batter inside, to increase the likelihood that the batter will pull the ball into the defense. It's real tough to go the opposite way with inside pitches.

The other thing is that Adam's game isn't built around "finding holes" through the infield. It's about driving the ball into the outfield. When he's hitting the way he's capable of, the infielders are essentially superfluous. That being the case, it really shouldn't matter to him where they are positioned.

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the pitchers would pitch him outside and he either took the pitch or pulled it between 2b and 1b.. i saw him do it many times.. thats why i feel he has a superstar abaility if he only cared..

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Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Why?

It's a great predicter of the future, as it frequently (at least with pitchers) determines whether they have pitched well or simply lucky.

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Technically, I'd say argue BABIP allows a more accurate assessment of how well a pitcher performed in the past.... BABIP has no predictive value per se in and of itself for pitchers much like LOB% or HR/FB...

Here's the numbers with a bit of a theory adjustment. I forgot to split of balls in play with homeruns the last time, so the new numbers are a little different. I calculated the estimated homeruns based on Hit Balls per Homerun according to his last three years, and then did the whole BABIP thing with the left over hit balls. These numbers are actually pretty different...

Hit Balls/HR: 8.849
Hits In Play: singles: .6724% doubles: .3207% triple: .0069%


With 194 Strikeouts: 683PA 561AB 367HB 326BIP .244/.376/.524/.900 .280isoP 137H 41HR 65singles 31doubles 1triple 294TB

With 164 Strikeouts: 683PA 561AB 397HB 352BIP .264/.392/.567/.959 .303isoP 148H 45HR 69singles 33doubles 1triple 318TB


POWER ADJUSTED
Hit Balls/HR: 11.3429
Hits In Play: singles: .6724% doubles: .3207% triples: .0069%


With 164 Strikeouts: 683PA 561AB 397HB 362BIP .251/.382/.503/.885 .252isoP 141H 35HR 71singles 34doubles 1triple 282TB



This paints a little different picture than the last time. This shows that Dunn could actually do some damage to his game if his power drops enough.

My problem with Dunn is not striking out with no one on base, or either at 1st base but with runners in scoring position. You have to change your hitting approach when just putting the ball in play will score a run. If he wants to take a hack at the fense, so be it. However with 2 strikes, just put it in play, the pitcher has the advantage, get the ribeye stake!

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Originally Posted by George Foster

My problem with Dunn is not striking out with no one on base, or either at 1st base but with runners in scoring position. You have to change your hitting approach when just putting the ball in play will score a run. If he wants to take a hack at the fense, so be it. However with 2 strikes, just put it in play, the pitcher has the advantage, get the ribeye stake!

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This never gets old, but I am curious... WITHOUT LOOKING IT UP, how many times do Redszoners THINK Dunn has struck out with runners in scoring position? Also define runners in scoring position.