Remember Thompson is on the list, and I'd suggest Negron doesn't fit your criterion either. Obviously a lot of others will play in the ML, though their individual "chances" may be less than 50/50.
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Of the 20 on the list currently, I'll take your bet as to 50%+ being major league players.
Arias, Barnhart, Duran, LaMarre, Perez, Rodriguez, and either Soto or Torreyes all have the combination of penache, position, and production to be given a shot, even if it is a cup of coffee in the bigs.
Thompson has already made it, and Johnson, Correa, and Corcino all also have the stuff, as does Lotzkar.
LaMarre.
Other than the ones on the board who have already had a taste of the majors, he's the one that has shown the most at the highest level still available (other than maybe Dorn who figures to be a platoon player).
I have to say, this year's list feels deeper than last.
Seriously.
I guess you misunderstood. I didn't have question mark. It was a statement. We are at 15. If Lotzkar wins (as he should :) ), look at the guys still on the board:
I think this is VERY deep.
Last year, pre-Chapman
Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Mike Leake
Prospect #3 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #4 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #5 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #6 - Travis Wood
Prospect #7 - Chris Heisey
Prospect #8 - Zack Cozart
Prospect #9 - Brad Boxberger
Prospect #10 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #11 - Matt Maloney
Prospect #12 - Billy Hamilton
Prospect #13 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #14 - Matt Klinker
Prospect #15 - Juan Duran
Prospect #16 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #17 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #18 - Juan Silva
Prospect #19 - Donnie Joseph
Prospect #20 - Josh Fellhauer
This year:
Prospect #1 - Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Prospect #2 - Devin Mesoraco, C
Prospect #3 - Yorman Rodriguez, CF
Prospect #4 - Yonder Alonso, 1B
Prospect #5 - Billy Hamilton, SS
Prospect #6 - Yasmani Grandal, C
Prospect #7 - Todd Frazier, IF/OF
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco, 3B
Prospect #9 - Zack Cozart, SS
Prospect #10 - David Sappelt, CF
Prospect #11 - Donnie Joseph, LHP
Prospect #12 - Ismael Guillon, LHP
Prospect #13 - Brad Boxberger, RHP
Prospect #14 - Chris Valaika, IF
Thanks. I did notice Thompson, and he does have a higher ceiling than LeCure (who doesn't, lol), but I just don't know enough about his injury to say he's better than 50/50 to stick in the majors. Maybe he is, I don't have access to that info.
I also am not an expert on minor leaguers, so I am just going on what I know, which is very limited. I am sure if I spent the time that many here do, reading scouting reports and even watching these guys play, I would have different opinions. Which is why I think the Redszone minor league forum is the best baseball forum in the country, hands down.
Seven out of the 20 from 2010 made some contribution to the majors last season, and that's before Chapman was added. Wow, that's much more than I ever expected.
I'll reserve judgement on the two list's depth until the second one is complete, but as of now, they both look very deep.
Correa for me. He's right up there with Guillon in my mind, and Lotzkar still scares me.
Valaika at #14?