With a few weeks left in the season, walks are higher than HR's - just a slight difference, so there's still time: 9 home runs versus 11 walks.
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With those numbers Juan could be leading off for the Reds
kc....maybe I am wrong but I thought I read several articles, or at least more than 1 article claiming that Juan was not a fit for the Reds at 3rd....they were looking more for a guy with a defensive upside and Juan is not known for his defense, never has been....if that was the case they would have just kept Edwin and let him be the role player until Rolen moved on.....I could be wrong and I wont swear to reading the articles, but I swear I thought Juan pretty much worked his own way out of favor with the Reds.....I dont think he was ever in the long term plans once 2011 was here, maybe before that he was....
again, I could very well be wrong and I will gladly say as much if I cannot find any proof, but Juan was pretty much dead man walking on this club as far as I could tell....it was just a matter of time until Walt could find a taker.
The main thrust of all the press at the time, comments from Dusty, etc. was that Francisco was overweight, hadn't rehabbed his injury from 2011, and it was clear that the Reds were upset with him for that. IMO that was the key reason he was traded.
He did have defensive upside with his throwing arm, Frazier was not viewed as a regular third baseman back then, JF's lefty bat fit the Reds bench very well.
The main point, though, is that Walt didn't get gold for garbage. Francisco was (and probably is) a reasonably valuable young player who Atlanta WANTED given Chipper's age and impending retirement. It was a fair trade which, this year, worked out for the Reds quite well.
But I'm not reaching a final conclusion on the deal just yet. I have always thought Juan was capable of some pretty good things and I'll wait a few years before deciding whether it was ultimately such a great trade.
I'm sorry if my "tone" came off badly, though I'm unsure how tone can be conveyed on written word.
My main point as been Francisco was out of options. You had not, until later, dealt with that point.
Even though Francisco had undoubtedly fallen out of favor with the Reds, I doubt he would have been traded if he still had remaining options. He would simply have been sent to the minors.
You can say he didn't make the Reds becuase of his play. But he was likely traded becuase he was out of options.
At the end of spring training, players are traded all the time, especially ones who are out of options. And the return is often not that great. I thought walt did well to get someone with as much upside as Hoover.
And yes, Francisco may still have a decent career. But that will not, in my mind, change the outcome of this trade, which must be, in the Reds eyes, be judged not in what they gave up ( a player that had to be traded), but on what they got.
Look at what the Indians managed to get for Brandon Phillips, a player in the exact same situation as Francisco. They got Jeff Stevens, and Phillips was rated a much better prospect than Francisco, and played a premium position. And you would have thought that Phillips could easily have been kept by the Indians as a back up middle infielder at worse. Once a team decides to move a player out of options at the end of April, his trade value decreases rapidly. That's the reason I think Walt did such a good job. He got decent value for a asset that was rapidly decreasing to zero value for the Reds. And he targetted the team who had the greatest need for that player.
I had to go looking for news from around the time of the Phillips trade, but the Indians move was also about them giving up on Phillips. Out of options, they DFA'ed him and the Reds made the trade.
Here's a little blog piece from the time, indicating that Brandon had lost some luster in the previous year. Ironically the blog listing was titled "Brandon Phillips, Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds" - prescient, no?
Talk about under the radar–I only heard about this through a Google News search. But the Reds made an outstanding move, trading “cash or a player to be named later” for Indians 2B Brandon Phillips. Phillips, who was at the time of the Expos’ awful Bartolo Calon rental the biggest prospect in the deal (which included Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee) was at the time a great combination of tools and performance, posting a .327/.380/.506 mark as a 21-year-old in AA and holding his own at AAA. He was handed the 2B job in Spring Training, 2003, and he proceeded to be probably the worst player in the majors that year, hitting an excruciating .208/.242/.311 over 370 at-bats before he received a mercy demotion to AAA. He then proceeded to lose a lot of luster in the minor leagues, enough that now–at 25–the Indians can trade him for roster space.
First pitch just thrown–Marshall looks like a lefty soft-tosser… uh oh.
[Source: http://getupbaby.net/?cat=110]
[An aside, the Marshall comment was a live comment for that day's Cubs game that day versus the Cardinals. Marshall started, making his ML debut, but only went four and a third, giving up four runs. Cubs came back to win with ex-Red Scot Williamson getting the win. I forgot that Dusty was Marshall's first manager http://www.baseball-reference.com/bo...0604090.shtml]
My last point on JF for now.
My argument is that Francsico was not a near-waiver wire dump of a player that magically brought Walt gold in return. I think it was a fair baseball trade. The Reds had soured on the guy, Atlanta had a need at third. Hoover was deemed fair trade bait for him.
It worked out well for the Reds this year, but I don't see the Braves complaining, Francisco has a 95 OPS+ this year (Heisey range) and has a positive UZR and UZR/150 rating this year.
I think JF will get better with more playing time. In the minors, as his seasons progressed, his numbers tended to improve markedly. I just think that declarations of success on this deal are premature, although it worked out well for the Reds this season.
As for Hoover, I do commend Walt for taking such interest in the bullpen this year. As I've said many times, there's nothing worse than skimping on the bullpen. Repeated late innings losses are poison to a team and the Reds don't have that problem.
IIRC, Franscisco was also out of options. Given the Reds' situation (It appeared that Franscisco was not "fitting in" to the Reds system), it was pretty imperative to trade Franscisco in the spring. I think it was great to get a contributing ML player in return. Every team in baseball knew the Reds wanted to get rid of JF.. Every team in baseball knew that JF was a defensive liablity that was likely to be OBP challenged.
Great trade. Looks like the Braves underestimated Hoover.
Well, I agree with you that JF wasn't exactly garbage, and Atlanta has gotten some use out of him. JF may improve.
I think I remember reading at the time, Atlanta didn't exactly value Hoover highly (maybe that was just Atlanta message board talk?) That the Braves were so loaded with minor league pitching, he was expendable? In any event, Walt got a useful bullpen arm for a guy that he couldn't keep on the roster.
That's worthy of praise. When you look around, you see some contenders trading very good talent for relievers that aren't even slated to close/set up.
I think the Reds could trade Hoover today for a better prospect than JF if they chose to..
I guess I look at this trade more from the Reds' perspective than Altanta's ..
I'm glad Atlanta is happy with JF. But even if JF becomes a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy there in 4 years, I'm not going to lose sleep over this trade.
Phillips is kind of a good analogy. He was not a good fit in Cleveland. Would've probably never flourished there. JF probably needed a new start too.
Edwin E needed several new starts :)
I really like Hoover. I liked Francisco too. I was not terribly happy to see him leave because it gave us Rolen insurance and a LH bat off the bench. But he's gone and Hoover is here. And I really like Hoover.
I completely agree with the bolded part, but Hoover also put up lights-out-good numbers at Louisville this season. He's had an incredible season overall. Could things change? Yes. But looking at it right now, the Reds are feeling great about the way that deal worked out.
JJ Hoover's 2012 statistics: Louisville: 4-0, 1.22 ERA, 37 IP, 15 H, 55 K, 12 BB, 13 saves. Major League numbers: 1-0, 2.08 ERA, 26 IP, 15 H, 28 K, 10 BB, 1 save.
Take a close look at those Louisville numbers. Wow.
He was third on the 3B depth chart and the Reds have been more than fine there this season. Plus, hitting LH doesn't count for much when it's attached to a sub-.300 OB. Willie Harris hits LH too and amply demonstrated there's no magic in that. I'm much happier with Xavier Paul lurking on the bench.
Francisco is a Willie Greene wannabe. Getting a legit pitcher for him was a steal.