A possible alternate plan for the offseason

Long time lurker lovin' the hot stove league talk and ready to put in my two cents....

Here's the current situation with the Reds as I see it:
We're obviously a small market team who can't compete with the big money guys for free agents.
We've got a trio of "studs" about to come on the horizon in 2007-2009.
By 2009 we'll most likely lose two of our best players: Dunn and Arroyo.
By 2009 we'll also be out from under the Griffey and Milton contracts.

I say we suck it up and trade Arroyo (arguably our biggest trading chip on the roster, besides Harang), Dunn, Freel, Ross, etc for as many "high-ceiling" prospects that are projected to be ready in 2008-2009 as possible. I'm targeting AA guys like Reimold, Liz, and Olson from the Orioles; Hughes (fat chance), Betances, Melancon from the Yankees; and so on.

We see if double E can have the breakout year that I think (hope) he'll have, see if Phillips is the real deal, and look for the continued improvement of Harang in 2007 and try to lock those three up for awhile.

Yes, we'll suck in 2007. But, starting in 2008 we'll start seeing these YOUNG, CHEAP, and (trusting the scouting department here) GOOD players all out on the field together.

We've got to break the cycle of having 2-3 good players in their prime surrounded by "crafty" veterans on the downside, too young players and free agent leftovers.

If its everything comes together, THEN you go out with the money saved and buy yourself an impact Free Agent(s) that fills your biggest need(s) in 2009.

Hopefully by that time, the money spent by Mr. Castellini in the scouting and minor leagues will allow the team to be constantly replenished with talent.

Thoughts?

No.

I don't expect the Reds to win the world series next year but i expect them to be competitive. I am sick of the 'five year plan' that never comes.
BUILD on the good players we have. Don't trade them nor our grade A prospects. I would like to field a team that competes for the division title year after year.

In 2008 Votto and Bailey should contribute ( if not this year ).
MANY of our players are young ( under 30 ).
We really aren't that far away.

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Originally Posted by wire2wire90

Long time lurker lovin' the hot stove league talk and ready to put in my two cents....

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Glad to see you decided to post!

Interesting idea and one uttered in various forms by a few people.

Rebuilding, to me, is another way of saying accept crappyness for another 5 years at which point we'll launch another 5 year plan. There are several flaws in this idea, IMO.

1) Scouting: The scouting and player development departments have been decimated since the mid 1980's. Waynes basically had since the end of last season to deal with improving it. I wouldn't want to depend on the current scouting department to find all of the "almost ready prospects" that we'll be counting on to help us succeed in 5 years.

2) Continuity: There is no way Wayne would survive 5 more years if he took this route. That means in year 2, 3 or 4 he would be gone and we'd get a new GM. Who would come in, spend some time checking things out, and then launch into another rebuilding plan.

3) Long term revenue increase: The ONLY way to boost revenue in a meaningfull way is to increase attendence. The team has sucked long enough that it will take a winning team for a period of time to convinvce the casual fans to come back. A 5 year plan means 5 more years of payroll at the same level, same amount of revenue to invest in scouting and player development, same amount of of money to invest in FO staff, etc.

Wayne has a difficult tightrope to walk of ballencing winning NOW and building for the future. Sometimes I think he works too hard to acomplish both so his player moves leave you scratching your head. But over time, I think this is the best way to rebuild the team from the missmanagement and abuse it's suffered since the early 1980's.

Real teams do not rebuild. KC and Pittsburgh rebuild.
Real teams try to win every year at the major league level and continue to build a farm system that can replace losses at the minor league level. This is what the Twins try to do, and is probably the reason Wayne Krivsky is now the Reds GM.

I was looking through some of my old baseball cards last night and came across a couple stacks of "rated rookie" cards from the 87-88 seasons. I remember some of these guys as being hot, can't miss prospects. Al Leiter and a few others panned out, but 90% of the prospects never had any real MLB success. My takeaway from that is prospects are nice, but on average you're better off taking the bird in the hand (i.e. MLB talent).

I don't think the Reds can compete in 2007, but I think 2008 is a possibility. I still think they should use Bailey in 2007 as a #5 starter on a pitch count with the usual extra days off for a #5 starter. He'll learn in 2007 and by 2008 if he is the phenom we believe he is, he'll be able to help us compete while Arroyo, Harang and Dunn are still here.

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Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking

Real teams do not rebuild. KC and Pittsburgh rebuild.
Real teams try to win every year at the major league level and continue to build a farm system that can replace losses at the minor league level. This is what the Twins try to do, and is probably the reason Wayne Krivsky is now the Reds GM.

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The Twins became competitive only after suffering through 6 years of cellar dwelling, which earned them some high draft picks. They went through a painful rebuilding phase and managed to make some smart draft choices and build a good farm system.

The Marlins constantly build competitive teams via rebuilding. They're not afraid to trade away pending free agents (Beckett) for top prospects. They're smart enough to draft well and sort out good prospects from bad.

KC and Pittsburgh are not smart franchises and can't tell good prospects from bad ones (AJ Hinch? Angel Berroa?). That's why they are perpetually rebuilding.

When I saw alternate plan, I was thinking along the lines that Castallini would post the Reds in hopes the Japanese league would buy the team. I think the Reds would be much more competitive against the Nippon Ham Fighters.

I don't think that it'll be a 5 year rebuilding plan....I'm looking at 2 years for equivalent production at a much better dollar value.

My greatest fear is that by the time Bailey, Votto, and Bruce are ready to make a contribution, they'll simply be replacing the production that we had with Dunn and Arroyo.

So, while their value is high (Dunn's value might be higher at the trade deadline) try to get younger players that will replace or exceed their production in 2008. I want to "add" those three prospects to roughly equivalent Dunn and Arroyo production, not use them to "replace" that production.

We are not a "real" team yet, we are right there with Pittsburgh, KC, and Milwaukee. I think a plan like this would get us there faster....but ONLY if you believe/trust that the scouting and player development is in place right now.

I thought that they were rebuilding that portion of the organization since DanO (I certainly don't mind the result of his drafts)...though I know Castellini's been putting even more money into it.

Arroyo is gone in 2 years no matter what the Reds do or offer. He hasn't sold his house in Boston, and I'm willing to bet mine that he returns.

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Originally Posted by wire2wire90

We are not a "real" team yet, we are right there with Pittsburgh, KC, and Milwaukee. I think a plan like this would get us there faster....but ONLY if you believe/trust that the scouting and player development is in place right now.

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I think the Reds are a lot closer to being competitive than Pittsburgh and KC. Those teams have huge, gaping holes. The Reds have plenty of problems, but they're the kind that a few million dollars would easily fix.

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Originally Posted by geniusMoment

Arroyo is gone in 2 years no matter what the Reds do or offer. He hasn't sold his house in Boston, and I'm willing to bet mine that he returns.

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I absolutely agree, plus he has a good contract for two years, and I think he'll fall back toward the back of his baseball card next year. His value will never be higher and I'm sure that we could take our pick of several not-quite-ready-for-primetime studs from "contending" organizations. That's why I deal him now.

Don't trade Arroyo now. Keep him for 2007. If he pitches anywhere close to the way he did in 2006 then try and sign him to an extension. If he won't sign NEXT offseason then trade him ( rather than just getting draft picks ).

Arroyo will make one heck of big chip to dangle at the deadline over the next two seasons to be sure.

Thing is, the thought of trading away one of the two best Reds pitchers over the last ten years makes me vomit with rage.