Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record
Code:
2007 ZiPS Projections
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Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
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Saarloos 6 9 29 20 130 144 75 18 58 62 5.19
Here are Saarloos' projections for the year, and no, I have no idea if these ZiPS are effective methods.
Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record
Some 2006 ZiPS
Code:
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Dunn* lf .254 .388 .560 157 548 105 139 31 1 45 110 114 174 5 2
Griffey* cf .280 .359 .548 108 403 65 113 24 0 28 78 48 80 0 1
Encarnacion 3b .262 .327 .449 140 485 67 127 31 0 20 73 44 108 11 5
LaRue c .246 .336 .430 113 374 42 92 25 1 14 54 34 105 1 1
Freel 2b .270 .364 .366 116 415 65 112 20 4 4 33 55 65 32 11
Denorfia cf .256 .327 .389 148 512 76 131 21 4 13 57 53 110 7 6
Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tomd63
As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site,
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ , for the projection. The following are the results.
Pyth. WP W L
.475 77 85
Code:
Name BA OBP SLG AB RC
Dunn,Adam .259 .382 .536 556 114
Phillips,Brandon .266 .320 .405 511 66
Hatteberg,Scott .270 .360 .398 460 66
Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489 454 78
Gonzalez,Alex .245 .293 .390 449 51
Freel,Ryan .265 .361 .376 441 60
Griffey Jr. ,Ken .270 .342 .506 423 73
Denorfia,Chris .287 .353 .440 418 65
Conine,Jeff .266 .333 .394 406 53
Castro,Juan .240 .277 .351 262 25
Moeller,Chad .206 .266 .314 223 19
Ross,Dave .234 .326 .482 197 31
Valentin,Javier .256 .326 .446 195 28
Hamilton,Josh .261 .305 .412 165 21
Keppinger,Jeff .286 .338 .360 50 6
Pitchers .142 .164 .204 309 10
Totals .254 .330 .417 5519 759
Name ERA G GS INN R
Arroyo,Bronson 3.86 34 32 212 100
Harang,Aaron 4.03 33 33 210 103
Milton,Eric 4.96 31 31 178 107
Lohse,Kyle 4.96 35 27 167 101
Santos,Victor 5.08 26 20 124 77
Belisle,Matt 4.95 42 13 109 66
Majewski,Gary 4.21 69 1 77 39
Coffey,Todd 4.04 70 0 69 34
Weathers,David 5.35 66 0 69 45
Stanton,Mike 3.71 68 0 68 30
Shackelford,Brian 4.81 62 0 58 34
Cormier,Rheal 4.89 68 0 57 34
Bray,Bill 4.79 42 0 47 27
Totals 4.53 646 157 1445 797
The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That's actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It'll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here's hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it's going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.
Does that take defense into effect at all?
Code:
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Dunn* lf .254 .388 .560 157 548 105 139 31 1 45 110 114 174 5 2
Griffey* cf .280 .359 .548 108 403 65 113 24 0 28 78 48 80 0 1
Encarnacion 3b .262 .327 .449 140 485 67 127 31 0 20 73 44 108 11 5
LaRue c .246 .336 .430 113 374 42 92 25 1 14 54 34 105 1 1
Freel 2b .270 .364 .366 116 415 65 112 20 4 4 33 55 65 32 11
Denorfia cf .256 .327 .389 148 512 76 131 21 4 13 57 53 110 7 6
[/QUOTE]
That shows how meaningless this really is.
Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Joseph
What I find interesting looking over these ZiPS is that we do not project to have even ONE league average reliever for 2007. Couple that with only 2 league average or better starters, and it's going to be a loooooooong season.
Yep, and we traded two above league-average position players to get no league average relievers. Sorry about beating a dead horse, but it's true.
Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS
I really think the Reds will breakthrough and make the playoffs. I think Harang is good for at least 15 wins, and I'm hoping Bronson gets at least 12. I think the x-factor in the rotation will be Milton though. He looked much better towards the end of last year.
Re: Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Redleg39
I really think the Reds will breakthrough and make the playoffs. I think the x-factor in the rotation will be Milton though. He looked much better towards the end of last year.
It would probably take 20 wins from Milton for the Reds to get into the playoffs this year. Could happen. I could also win the U.S. Open at Oakmont this year. Really, I could.