Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
I don't doubt he's improved. But he has a .430 BABIP. That is massively unsustainable regardless of how good a hitter he is right now. I may have said organization, but I might have well as said the universe. Looking at true talent, what we can reasonable expect from a guy moving forward, the highest BABIP in the majors over the last 3 years (1500 PA) is Votto at .366. Only 3 other guys are at .350+.
Even if he's suddenly a world-class line drive hitter like Votto, Wright, Upton, Choo, and Bruan (the highest BABIP guys who aren't doing it with speed), he's still 70+ points above sustainable. If he's merely a very good major league hitter, he's 100+ above sustainable. And if he's average, he's 130 points above it. And that's more than 25% of his hits which will go away when he regresses.
So again, yeah, it looks like he's improved. But he's playing way over his head and there is no denying that.