To me the real question being posed here, is that assuming Bailey has not been moved on to another organization coming into next season, what do you do with the guy if he still hasn't shown the ability to be a respectable rotation member?
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I agree with most of this, although I'd also consider swapping him for another similarly faded superprospect at a position of need (Brandon Wood?)
I also agree with those that say he may flourish a couple years from now with another organization. Unfortunately, there is not that much that the Reds can do about that now.
You take your lumps with Bailey ala the Cubs and Maddux circa 1987. The will know what they have by september 2010 if anything.
The difference is that Bailey is 2 years older than Maddux was, has significantly more major league experience (>50 IP) and has significantly worse results (worse ERA, K/9, BB/9) than Maddux did in 1987.
If Bailey can pull his ERA under 6.00 by the end of the year I'd agree with you that he is showing improvement and we should bear with him.
However if he doesn't...
bullpen or whatever.
It's worked great for Phil Hughes. I think the Reds should do the same with Homer.
I'd like to see him go to the bullpen but I'm afraid the Reds don't have any better arms to trot out as as starter.
So I'm afraid they'll just continue to flog him in the '50's-style sink or swim kind of mentality they seem to have.
What happened to the vaunted new splitter he was supposed to throw?
If he doesn't, send him hunting with this guy:
http://seanbond.files.wordpress.com/...ick_cheney.jpg
Provided he shows improvement, especially with Volquez down for the majority of 2010, and with the uncertainty of keeping Arroyo/Harang, there's no way you cut bait on Bailey.
And I misread. No improvement, try to get a nibble if you can....no nibble, stick him in the pen.
Personally I think I've seen a much more mature Bailey this year. And I think he's putting it together. He's young still, he's a year younger than Claussen was when he came to us really.
Sure we've had pitchers who didn't pan out, who never really made good. Certainly the OP can set up his poll however he likes, but I disagree with his original assumption, that Bailey won't improve. I think he has already.
Stick with Homer. Bruce too.
I think they'll both get better with a little more age on them.