MEMO: Stop attempting to steal bases

One stat often overlooked when analyzing the Reds offense is how many times they've been caught stealing. Here are some facts...

Reds stats (Rank)

SB - 61 (8th)
CS - 31 (2nd most)
SB% - .66 (15th)

- The only NL team with more CS than the Reds (31) is Houston (32). Houston has 23 more SB than the Reds.

- The only NL team with a lower SB% than the Reds (66.3%) is Arizona (66.0%). Arizona has attempted 45 fewer steals than the Reds. (SABR guys will tell you that it takes a success rate of 75% for an attempt to be worth the risk.)

The bottom line is, guys are trying to steal bases who have no business trying to. Now, I think I know who is responsible for this, but I shall let him remain nameless.

I propose a few new team rules:

1. If your name isn't Brandon Phillips (19 SB/4 CS, 83%) or Jerry Hairston, Jr. (15 SB/3 CS, 83%), you are not allowed to attempt a steal unless the pitcher forgets what he's doing and goes from the full windup.

2. If you are the manager, you are not allowed to give the third base coach the steal sign unless the runner on first base is named Brandon Phillips (19 SB/4 CS, 83%) or Jerry Hairston, Jr. (15 SB/3 CS, 83%).

3. If you are the third base coach, you are not allowed to relay any steal sign given by the manager to any player who isn't named Brandon Phillips (19 SB/4 CS, 83%) or Jerry Hairston, Jr. (15 SB/3 CS, 83%).

4. If you are the first base coach and see that the third base coach has relayed a steal sign from the manager for anyone who isn't named Brandon Phillips (19 SB/4 CS, 83%) or Jerry Hairston, Jr. (15 SB/3 CS, 83%), you must whisper into the baserunner's ear "don't do it", or shout "HE'S GOING TO STEAL!!!" to encourage the sign to be taken off.

There you go. That's four layers of security to keep your team away from several unnecessary and wasted outs.

Thoughts?

I feel like we always steal at really random times, ala Bruce tonight with a 3 run lead and a runner on first. Granted their were 2 outs, but a lot of our steals seem to be in poor stealing counts and not that speedy of a runner.

Blue, no way dude, we gotta run and manufacture runs, even at asinine, inopportune times, just cause that's how you play the game the right way. I played with Hank Aaron.

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Originally Posted by Javy Pornstache

Blue, no way dude, we gotta run and manufacture runs, even at asinine, inopportune times, just cause that's how you play the game the right way. I played with Hank Aaron.

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... are you...

nah, couldn't be.

Keep on running,its really a lot of dumb base running blunders that stink.Getting caught in rundowns,which happens way to often on this team.

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Originally Posted by Jr's Boy

Keep on running,its really a lot of dumb base running blunders that stink.Getting caught in rundowns,which happens way to often on this team.

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Exactly. A runner getting picked off, or caught in a run down gets credited with a "caught stealing." I am sure the Reds are close to leading the league in those type of "caught stealings." If you adjust the league numbers to takes those into account (not sure how you can do that) I have a feeling the Reds are at least league average in their base stealing percentage.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 757690

Exactly. A runner getting picked off, or caught in a run down gets credited with a "caught stealing." I am sure the Reds are close to leading the league in those type of "caught stealings." If you adjust the league numbers to takes those into account (not sure how you can do that) I have a feeling the Reds are at least league average in their base stealing percentage.

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I think that where you're going wrong here is that they are getting picked off and caught in rundowns because the pitcher is catching them leaning in anticipation of trying to steal. The blunder isn't that they've fallen asleep at first base, its that they're being asked to steal when they are not skilled in that area of the game. They don't read the pitchers well. Its not an easy skill to learn. There aren't a lot of players who are good at it. Plenty of players with good speed aren't good at it. Phillips and Hairston are excellent at it. They're each in the NL top 15 in SBs this season and have only been thrown out 7 total times (they'd both be top 10 if Hairston could stay healthy and had played played at this level for the entire season). No one else on the team is even okay at it.

As for "keep on stealing", I really think that's a bad idea. If you take out the numbers of Brandon Phillips and Jerry Hairston, Jr., the Reds are 27/24 SB/CS. That's awful.

Mistakes are unacceptable, unless they're aggressive mistakes.