Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
757690
ERA is all the matters to the team. Until Bailey can translate those peripherals into a top of the rotation ERA, he ain't one of the best pitchers in the league, imo.
I can certainly understand this argument. I don't completely agree with it because I think that more than just the pitchers performance goes into ERA (where he has pitched, against which line ups, how the weather was on a given day, his defense on a given day).
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
nate
I disagree. ERA is a measure of what the run prevention unit does while the pitcher is on the mound. It's not a measure reflective of what he did by himself.
I have no idea what a "top of the rotation" ERA is but he's transformed himself into one of the best pitchers in the league over the past calendar year and to me, it's quite refreshing. Kind of like a mojito or shoju cocktail.
As stated before, nothing he does, he does by himself. Not even strikeouts, walks, nor home runs.
The greatest lie of the sabermetric crowd, "xFIP measures what a pitcher can control while ERA doesn't."
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
757690
As stated before, nothing he does, he does by himself. Not even strikeouts, walks, nor home runs.
The greatest lie of the sabermetric crowd, "xFIP measures what a pitcher can control while ERA doesn't."
I hope most of the sabermetric crowd isn't saying that.
He is controlling the strikeouts and the walks. The home runs, not as much, but largely they are a function of him and the ballpark.
xFIP is a tool, not an end. It is worth looking at to compare to ERA and see if a guy is due to come back to Earth (in either direction), but you need to also be able to look at the numbers and figure out why there may be a big difference.
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
nate
I feel the same as I did prior to reading your post:
- Frazier wouldn't be on my All Star team.
- The "tell your stats to shut up" commentary is tired
Prediction: I'll continue to feel this way after you NEXT post too.
1. So we agree. Frazier is not an All-Star.
2. Please point to my "tell your stats to shut up" post. I didn't say a word about stats.
What I did say was that no matter how the selection is made -- fan vote, bunch of dudes, eeny meeny miney moe, random draw, statistical comparison, alphabetical order, seniority -- the selection will be wrong. I like him as a player and person, but he is not worthy of the NL All-Star team this year. He is not even worthy of being considered, IMO.
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
757690
As stated before, nothing he does, he does by himself. Not even strikeouts, walks, nor home runs. The greatest lie of the sabermetric crowd, "xFIP measures what a pitcher can control while ERA doesn't."
Irony of using "lie" to describe what is essentially a strawman argument aside, the pitcher is mostly in control of what happens between the ball leaving his hand and the ball reaching the catcher's mitt or the bat. Someone and sometimes multiple someones are mostly in control of what happens between the bat hitting the ball and finding a glove, ground or fan's hand/beer cup.
It has been shown that FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA, et al. are much better at measuring talent and predicting future ERA than ERA is. They are especially useful when looking at 1-3 season-sized samples.
Perfect? No. Better than ERA at predicting the future and estimating talent: yes.
Let's not let perfect be the enemy of good and because of that, resort to using not-so-good until perfect comes along.
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
New York Red
This is so out of whack, it's laughable. Sabremetrics has forever destroyed the possibility of sensible baseball discussion.
And this sentiment embodies the possibility of sensible baseball discussion (or frankly any kind of sensible discussion)?
Shenanigans (spritzing anti-troll spray in your direction).
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
nate
Irony of using "lie" to describe what is essentially a strawman argument aside, the pitcher is mostly in control of what happens between the ball leaving his hand and the ball reaching the catcher's mitt or the bat. Someone and sometimes multiple someones are mostly in control of what happens between the bat hitting the ball and finding a glove, ground or fan's hand/beer cup.
It has been shown that FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA, et al. are much better at measuring talent and predicting future ERA than ERA is. They are especially useful when looking at 1-3 season-sized samples.
Perfect? No. Better than ERA at predicting the future and estimating talent: yes.
Let's not let perfect be the enemy of good and because of that, resort to using not-so-good until perfect comes along.
It's funny how things that don't fit a bias become "lies" so easily these days.
Defense independent metrics remove things from the equation that are outside of the pitcher's influence and weights things that are intrinsic to his repeatable skill set. This is a lie nowadays?
Shenanigans.
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Horrible, horrible blog post. Not that it wasn't well written. But those are not all stars, they're saber-friendly players.
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ghosts of 1990
Horrible, horrible blog post. Not that it wasn't well written. But those are not all stars, they're saber-friendly players.
Care to explain the difference?
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
I am really not seeing what is causing people to rage over this article.
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Norm Chortleton
1. So we agree. Frazier is not an All-Star.
Yes, I believe I said I wouldn't have chosen him.
Quote:
2. Please point to my "tell your stats to shut up" post. I didn't say a word about stats.
It was your "like" of this post and subsequent posts dismissing the system/process/dudes.
Quote:
What I did say was that no matter how the selection is made -- fan vote, bunch of dudes, eeny meeny miney moe, random draw, statistical comparison, alphabetical order, seniority -- the selection will be wrong. I like him as a player and person, but he is not worthy of the NL All-Star team this year. He is not even worthy of being considered, IMO.
Yes, agreed.
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jojo
It's funny how things that don't fit a bias become "lies" so easily these days.
Defense independent metrics remove things from the equation that are outside of the pitcher's influence and weights things that are intrinsic to his repeatable skill set. This is a lie nowadays?
Shenanigans.
Yes.
Shenanigans should have it's own smiley.
Maybe for now, this one will suffice: :bray:
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mth123
NM
I laughed. He is good at defense though.
Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
I don't know how you cannot go with Leake if you're going to take a Reds' pitcher. I realize he's not got the best peripherals, but bottom line he's by far been the Reds' most productive starter. I don't know where the Reds would be right now without him pitching every fifth day.
His ERA is more than a run better than Bailey and his WHIP is extremely comparable. Leake deserves a nod more than Bailey based on bottom line production.
