Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
New York Red
Wow, I guess you put me in my place. :laugh:
Some of you are way too full of yourselves. I'm pretty sure I've mentioned Brandon's defense numerous times in this thread, so, no, RBI isn't his only value to the 2013 Reds.
Sabremetrically inclined? LOL, now that's funny. :beerme:
My bad. RBI and defense. If we're talking MVP, everything the player does matter. Simply asserting that a player has excelled in a particular area is, at best, an incomplete argument.
Leads the league in RBI + plays really good defense at 2B = MVP is still a weak argument in my book. Driving in runs and playing defense are definitely big parts of how a player produces value. But they're only part of the picture. And I'm not suggesting that you don't know that. I am suggesting that you don't seem to be accounting for those other things.
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bumstead
And there is exactly what I am talking about. A backhanded insult that us traditionalists are not supposed to notice. I agree that you believe that deeper metrics give you a more accurate view of a player's performance but it doesn't mean those of us who enjoy stats like wins and RBI's should be insulted for it. I'm not a complete traditionalist, somewhere in the middle, but I do look at traditional stats and so do the players and managers and the GM's.
Bum
I think you've essentially identified a huge issue:
You're mentioned that you "enjoy" certain stats. I would argue that while stats themselves can and do provide enjoyment, their primary purpose is to answer help answer given analytical questions. I see see relatively little value in spending time on metrics that do a poor(er) job of doing that when we have more precise/accurate metrics at our fingertips.
This isn't about insulting anybody. But if we're debating something that has an objectively correct answer, why not try to get to the most accurate answer we can?
What is frustrating to me is when people want to seemingly have their cake and eat it too -- if MVP, or a portion of MVP, is about runs produced and prevented, RBI add very little to that conversation in the presence of some of the new metrics which already account for the rate at which the player has advanced his teammates around the bases while also account for the other things he does that are also valuable (or not).
And that gets back to my comment regarding "sabermetrically inclined" vs. traditionalist. For us "sabermetrically inclined" getting as close as possible to some objective truth is where the enjoyment comes from. For traditionalist, there's an element of that, but there is a significant amount of enjoyment that comes from answering those questions more squarely in the history and fabric of the game.
When people like me take RBI off the table, it offends a core sense of what the game is all about for some people. For others, it's simply clearing out the old and inefficient to make way for new and improved.
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
You have a better shot at leading league in RBI's batting 3rd vs 1st.
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Why I don't trust RBIs
Code:
SEASON
OBA <= .320
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RBI YEAR RBI OBA RC/G
T1 Garret Anderson 2001 123 .314 0.14
T1 Tony Armas 1984 123 .300 0.75
3 Matt Williams 1990 122 .319 0.58
T4 Joe Carter 1993 121 .312 0.46
T4 Jeff Kent 1997 121 .316 -.10
T6 Del Ennis 1954 119 .318 -.71
T6 Joe Carter 1992 119 .309 0.76
T6 Sammy Sosa 1997 119 .300 -.66
9 Dick Stuart 1963 118 .312 0.71
T10 Jose Canseco 1986 117 .318 0.22
T10 Jorge Cantu 2005 117 .311 0.00
T10 Garret Anderson 2000 117 .307 -.47
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
2b version with a .330 OB% limit
Code:
SEASON
2B
OBA <= .330
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RBI YEAR RBI OBA RC/G
1 Jeff Kent 1997 121 .316 -.10
2 Jorge Cantu 2005 117 .311 0.00
3 Alfonso Soriano 2005 104 .309 1.03
4 Fred Pfeffer 1884 101 .325 3.12
5 Brandon Phillips 2009 98 .329 -.24
6 Jose Lopez 2009 96 .303 -.83
T7 Bret Boone 1998 95 .324 -.53
T7 Fred Pfeffer 1886 95 .316 0.29
T7 Bobby Doerr 1947 95 .329 -.21
T10 Tony Cuccinello 1934 94 .325 -.38
T10 Bobby Lowe 1898 94 .311 -1.25
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Below are the reasons I don't trust RBI.
1) I'm old school
:confused:
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
New York Red
Below are the reasons I don't trust RBI.
1) I'm old school
:confused:
Counting stats are generally created by increased opportunity, especially RBIs, which are caused by other players getting on and the player hitting coming up over and over again in that situation.
Nothing confusing about that
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
westofyou
Why I don't trust RBIs
Code:
SEASON
OBA <= .320
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RBI YEAR RBI OBA RC/G
T1 Garret Anderson 2001 123 .314 0.14
T1 Tony Armas 1984 123 .300 0.75
3 Matt Williams 1990 122 .319 0.58
T4 Joe Carter 1993 121 .312 0.46
T4 Jeff Kent 1997 121 .316 -.10
T6 Del Ennis 1954 119 .318 -.71
T6 Joe Carter 1992 119 .309 0.76
T6 Sammy Sosa 1997 119 .300 -.66
9 Dick Stuart 1963 118 .312 0.71
T10 Jose Canseco 1986 117 .318 0.22
T10 Jorge Cantu 2005 117 .311 0.00
T10 Garret Anderson 2000 117 .307 -.47
Reason why I trust RBI's.
They represent actual runs scored that actually helped a team win actual games.
The Runs Created stat represent theoretical runs that we are making happy guesses about probably scoring in general over the course of a hypothetical season.
RBI's may not reveal any skill or talent, but they reveal production, and that's what makes players valuable, and that's what wins baseball games.
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
reds700
The ballpark thing is overdone imo. Yeah, it is easier to hit home runs in certain parks, but it is also harder to get base hits in those parks b/c the outfield is smaller. It all evens out.
No, it doesn't all even out, or even close to it. Heck, just think about something as trivial as foul territory. How many extra chances on a season does a guy get because he plays in GABP with little foul territory versus playing in Oakland with their huge amounts of foul territory? Balls that fall in the first 5-7 rows here are outs in Oakland.
Nevermind what WOY said about the different values of the hits.
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
westofyou
Counting stats are generally created by increased opportunity, especially RBIs, which are caused by other players getting on and the player hitting coming up over and over again in that situation.
Nothing confusing about that
You're one of my favorite posters, yet I want to boot you right now. :)
Brandon is hitting something like a million with RISP, but lets give the love to Choo and Votto (who I agree deserve their portion of the credit). Why can't we admit we have three players in the MVP race?
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
757690
Reason why I trust RBI's.
They represent actual runs scored that actually helped a team win actual games.
The Runs Created stat represent theoretical runs that we are making happy guesses about probably scoring in general over the course of a hypothetical season.
RBI's may not reveal any skill or talent, but they reveal production, and that's what makes players valuable, and that's what wins baseball games.
But the player who is credited with the "runs" in the RBI isn't fully responsible for them. The problem with RBI is that it gives full credit for that run to one guy, when unless it came from a solo home run, he was not fully responsible for. It also counts that solo HR the same as when a guy grounds out weakly to the second baseman with the bases loaded. Those two events weren't close to the same, but they are credited the same in the RBI stat.
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
But the player who is credited with the "runs" in the RBI isn't fully responsible for them. The problem with RBI is that it gives full credit for that run to one guy, when unless it came from a solo home run, he was not fully responsible for. It also counts that solo HR the same as when a guy grounds out weakly to the second baseman with the bases loaded. Those two events weren't close to the same, but they are credited the same in the RBI stat.
Boom. Can't emphasize this post enough.
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
757690
Reason why I trust RBI's.
They represent actual runs scored that actually helped a team win actual games.
The Runs Created stat represent theoretical runs that we are making happy guesses about probably scoring in general over the course of a hypothetical season.
RBI's may not reveal any skill or talent, but they reveal production, and that's what makes players valuable, and that's what wins baseball games.
Sure they are actual runs, but weigh against the other items being brought to the table then. If theory is too specious then look at PAs/Reached base/ Outs
Code:
SEASON
2B
PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
REACHED BASE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OBA <= .330
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RBI YEAR RBI PA RB OUTS OBA RC/G
1 Jeff Kent 1997 121 651 206 462 .316 -.10
2 Jorge Cantu 2005 117 630 196 458 .311 0.00
3 Alfonso Soriano 2005 104 682 211 479 .309 1.03
4 Fred Pfeffer 1884 101 492 160 332 .325 3.12
5 Brandon Phillips 2009 98 644 211 463 .329 -.24
6 Jose Lopez 2009 96 653 197 484 .303 -.83
T7 Bret Boone 1998 95 648 207 468 .324 -.53
T7 Fred Pfeffer 1886 95 510 161 349 .316 0.29
T7 Bobby Doerr 1947 95 624 204 448 .329 -.21
T10 Tony Cuccinello 1934 94 587 188 407 .325 -.38
T10 Bobby Lowe 1898 94 611 184 427 .311 -1.25
Take Phillips 98 rbis
1 RBI every 6.6 PAs
1 RBI every 4.7 outs
1 RBI every 2.2 RB
Now look at guys with OB% greater than .330
Code:
SEASON
2B
PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
REACHED BASE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OBA >= .330
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RBI YEAR RBI PA RB OUTS OBA RC/G
1 Rogers Hornsby 1922 152 704 316 400 .459 7.84
2 Rogers Hornsby 1929 149 712 317 395 .459 6.26
3 Rogers Hornsby 1925 143 605 288 320 .489 9.82
4 Bret Boone 2001 141 690 255 451 .372 2.81
5 Jeff Kent 1998 128 594 213 401 .359 1.78
T6 Nap Lajoie 1898 127 641 225 416 .354 1.98
T6 Charlie Gehringer 1934 127 708 316 400 .450 3.93
8 Rogers Hornsby 1921 126 674 302 385 .458 6.60
T9 Nap Lajoie 1901 125 582 269 313 .463 10.16
T9 Rogers Hornsby 1927 125 684 295 389 .448 5.08
T9 Jeff Kent 2000 125 695 295 426 .424 3.72
Hornsby
1 RBI every 4.6 PAs
1 RBI every 2.6 outs
1 RBI every 2.0 RB
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
No, it doesn't all even out, or even close to it. Heck, just think about something as trivial as foul territory. How many extra chances on a season does a guy get because he plays in GABP with little foul territory versus playing in Oakland with their huge amounts of foul territory? Balls that fall in the first 5-7 rows here are outs in Oakland.
Nevermind what WOY said about the different values of the hits.
Ballparks effect stats help us determine who the more talented player is. It does nothing to tell us who the more productive player is.
Value to a team is about helping your team win ballgames. Making outs or getting hits in a tough hitters park is the same at helping your team win as making outs or getting hits in a hitter friendly park.
Value is about production, and there always is a bit of luck involved in all production of runs. There's no need to account for luck when it comes to evaluating a players production or value to his team.
Re: 1/4 Mark NL and AL MVPs
Let me further note that I like RBI, because as 757690 noted, they do represent actual runs scored by the team and you can't win without scoring. RBI are a good thing to have. But I do think they are a can be indicator of a players value.