Brandon Phillips, Now Really "The Franchise", Signs Long-Term deal

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs...incinnatireds/

Terms of the deal haven't been disclosed yet.

Good...I think it's important to the team. I think Brandon is in a prime position to become the young leader of the young lads.

I'm guessing 4 & 30. I sure hope he learns to take a walk and to hit righties...

Good news...hopefully it is a favorable deal for both sides. Seemed like Brandon has enjoyed his time in Cincinnati and wanted to stay. I hope he can keep improving in all facets of his game and bring home a Gold Glove this year too.

Also nice to get this out of the way so they don't have to go through the hearing and have his contract hanging over him all year.

Well, it is good to have the leader of the team under contract for a few years.

Love it. The Reds have had a kick butt off season.

Where's the LTC for Dunn.

All I know is Krivsky seems top be able to keep players here. That plus find nuggets on the cheap, the only aspect I really can see where he is lacking is ability to take assets in minors that are valued elsewhere and spin them for desired needs of the Reds.

Please note this does not involve Cueto,Bailey,Bruce.

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Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

Where's the LTC for Dunn.

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Give it time. Getting a deal done with Phillips is much easier than getting a new deal done with a slugger who already makes an 8 digit salary.

I could live with a 4 year contract in the 6.5-7.5 million per range.

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Originally Posted by Reds1

Love it. The Reds have had a kick butt off season.

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Hopefully waiting to see how his knee is for at least some playing time.

Great to see one of the key middle positions shored up for a few more years.

Slowly, but surely, this ownership/GM group is starting to do the right things. Maybe there is hope after all :)

Good.

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Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

Where's the LTC for Dunn.

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I think it's coming ... at least I'm hoping.

What seems very obvious is Krivsky is trying to give the Reds a 2-4 year window from now through 2011 to make some noise and do some damage. They can control Harang/Arroyo through 2011, and they do control Cordero through 2011. I also think Encarnacion is under arbit control through 2011 too. I'm sure Phillips contract is - at minimum - three years with an option for a fourth year, which would allow the Reds to control him through 2011 too (Phillips' contract may even be longer).

All the young prospects ... Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, and Votto are also under control through at least 2011, some (all?) even longer.

This tells us where the base is and how long it's locked up. The window basically starts now and possibly closes in 2011, with the two money years being 2009 and 2010.

Of course, it still all eventually rolls back to Dunn like you say. They're going to need his bat to make that window reality so they're going to have to figure something out to lock up him through at least 2011. Hopefully negotiations are already underway and the Reds are conveying to Dunn that the next three to four years look pretty good. If so, then I think the chances of a LTC with the Big Donkey are pretty good ...

At least I'm hoping.

I think with Dunn Krivsky is waiting to see if his knee is fully healthy before giving him a LTC. I see no problem with that. I made this prediction yesterday on here - By the end of March the Reds will announce they have signed Dunn long-term.

My guess is 3 years at 21 million plus 11 million club option for fourth year.

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Originally Posted by LoganBuck

My guess is 3 years at 21 million plus 11 million club option for fourth year.

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I could live with that. In 3 years, 11 million might look like an absolute steal.

Very nice move. Financials will be interesting.

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Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I think with Dunn Krivsky is waiting to see if his knee is fully healthy before giving him a LTC. I see no problem with that. I made this prediction yesterday on here - By the end of March the Reds will announce they have signed Dunn long-term.

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That may well be, but the truth also is that Phillips and Belisle were the more pressing matters. Once we picked up Dunn's option, we bought some time to hammer out a long term deal. Such a deal can always be subject to a physical. I think the Reds were just taking things in the order they were happening. I agree though that it won't surprise me if we have a deal with AD prior to the start of the season.

Love this. I like how Krivsky has locked up rising players to long term deals before they were to hit arbitratoin. In the past it was status quo to sign your better players to long term deals after they hit their peak.

Good move. I like Phillips as a core player.

I haven't seen this reported anywhere else. Is this another one of Hal's "scoops"?

I hope you all are right.
I'm not sold on Phillips the person or Phillips the ballplayer.

When you look at raw OPS+ Felipe Lopez (and even D'Angelo) were almost exactly what Phillips is. Now, Phillips plays better D and folks do seem to like him better than either of those two, but middle infielders who get rewarded with large contracts are much more likely to fall off the earth than they are to turn into Larkin or Morgan.

Again, I hope you all are right.

I'm not going to judge this deal until I see the terms...

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Originally Posted by dfs

I hope you all are right.
I'm not sold on Phillips the person or Phillips the ballplayer.

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Wow, tough crowd. I see him as the most genuine, fun guy on the team. I think most of Cincy does too. He's essentially the face of the team because of his smile.

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Originally Posted by Cyclone792

I think it's coming ... at least I'm hoping.

What seems very obvious is Krivsky is trying to give the Reds a 2-4 year window from now through 2011 to make some noise and do some damage. They can control Harang/Arroyo through 2011, and they do control Cordero through 2011. I also think Encarnacion is under arbit control through 2011 too. I'm sure Phillips contract is - at minimum - three years with an option for a fourth year, which would allow the Reds to control him through 2011 too (Phillips' contract may even be longer).

All the young prospects ... Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, and Votto are also under control through at least 2011, some (all?) even longer.

This tells us where the base is and how long it's locked up. The window basically starts now and possibly closes in 2011, with the two money years being 2009 and 2010.

Of course, it still all eventually rolls back to Dunn like you say. They're going to need his bat to make that window reality so they're going to have to figure something out to lock up him through at least 2011. Hopefully negotiations are already underway and the Reds are conveying to Dunn that the next three to four years look pretty good. If so, then I think the chances of a LTC with the Big Donkey are pretty good ...

At least I'm hoping.

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I'm right there with ya, buddy.

Everything you lay out here seems very logical to me... not to mention that, hopefully, 4 years from now, the Reds will be on a much higher 'revenue stream path' to justify cherrypicking the remaining talent to possibly keep around even if they have become costly.

But for this whole plan to work, I see Dunn as an absolute necessity.

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Originally Posted by Chip R

I haven't seen this reported anywhere else. Is this another one of Hal's "scoops"?

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Fay's on a plane right now heading to Sarasota and likely won't have any updates until this afternoon. I wouldn't know why some of the other writers/media personnel haven't chimed in with anything though.

If true, thats wonderful news. Cost certainty always is big for star caliber players.

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Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

Where's the LTC for Dunn.

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I think that will come at some point this season. Jr's money comes off the books after '08, with a 4 mil buyout.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dfs

I hope you all are right.
I'm not sold on Phillips the person or Phillips the ballplayer.

When you look at raw OPS+ Felipe Lopez (and even D'Angelo) were almost exactly what Phillips is. Now, Phillips plays better D and folks do seem to like him better than either of those two, but middle infielders who get rewarded with large contracts are much more likely to fall off the earth than they are to turn into Larkin or Morgan.

Again, I hope you all are right.

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D'Angelo/Lopez couldn't cover 1/4th the ground of Phillips and both had some of the worst attitudes possibly in baseball. I'll take my chances on a young man that wants to be here and has by all accounts a great work ethic.

Question for everybody: If Phillips hits .280/.330/.450, trading 80 of those HR for 2B, do you still consider him a star?

I like the guy and considering his defense and thrilled to have him, I just don't like this trend of signing guys to long term deals right after a career best year. I think we saw the upper end of what Phillips can do and while I think he merits a deal, I'm wary of expectations.

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Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Question for everybody: If Phillips hits .280/.330/.450, trading 80 of those HR for 2B, do you still consider him a star?

I like the guy and considering his defense and thrilled to have him, I just don't like this trend of signing guys to long term deals right after a career best year. I think we saw the upper end of what Phillips can do and while I think he merits a deal, I'm wary of expectations.

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Really not much of a risk with the length given. He's not going to go anywhere soon and he actually has had two years with similar numbers.

Phillips is at the point where he could start developing old-player skills and learning to lay off low-and-away sliders. I don't think he's reached his ceiling yet. Jimmy Rollins is probably a good comparison for him.

I'm also a huge fan of signing players through their arb years.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Question for everybody: If Phillips hits .280/.330/.450, trading 80 of those HR for 2B, do you still consider him a star?

I like the guy and considering his defense and thrilled to have him, I just don't like this trend of signing guys to long term deals right after a career best year. I think we saw the upper end of what Phillips can do and while I think he merits a deal, I'm wary of expectations.

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David Ross says :wave:

And "Thanks" to Krivsky.

Good news.

And the elephant that is Adam Dunn hovers more massively by the second.

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Originally Posted by Cedric

Really not much of a risk with the length given. He's not going to go anywhere soon and he actually has had two years with similar numbers.

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You're not talking about 2006 and 2007 are you?

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+
2006 - .276/.324/.427/.751/88
2007 - .288/.331/.485/.816/105

He took a rather significant jump in 2007 driven mostly by a bump in power. Here's to hoping he can keep it up.

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Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

David Ross says :wave:

And "Thanks" to Krivsky.

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Hard to compare the contracts. Ross gets 2 years of about $5M total or so (don't remember). He would have gotten that in arbitration anyway.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Phillips is at the point where he could start developing old-player skills and learning to lay off low-and-away sliders. I don't think he's reached his ceiling yet. Jimmy Rollins is probably a good comparison for him.

I'm also a huge fan of signing players through their arb years.

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I agree, he is at the point where he could start developing his skills. The whole idea of arbitration is that we don't have to bet $30M+ on whether or not he does. Maybe I'm overly risk averse, but I want to see signs that those skills are ready to develop before I pay them.

The risk of not signing him is that he does continue to improve, and that and costs you more money over the long haul than locking him up early would have.

The risk of signing him is that he doesn't develop further, or he regresses, and you're on the hook for a level of production you never get.

Teams rarely get themselves in trouble for paying fair value for production. They get in trouble for paying too much for poor production. For a guy with one above average season and a few real holes in his game (big platoon split, low OBP), I'm quite hesitant to project out the next 3, 4, or more years and commit financially to his ongoing improvement, when he can control him without the fiscal guarantee. We really give up a lot of flexibility for the sake of cost certainty and a shot at a bargain.

However, it really comes down to the dollars. If you get a fairly substantial discount and the years aren't too many, then I think it's still a good risk to take. I'm hoping for something like:

'08: $4.5M
'09: $6.5M
'10: $9.0M
'11: $11.0M - Team Option

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Just thinking that Robbie Cano might not be a bad contract comp. He just signed a 4 year deal this offseason, as a super-two guy.

08:$3M
09:$6M
10:$9M
11:$10M
12:$14M club option ($2M buyout)
13:$15M club option ($2M buyout)

Phillips is at 3 full years of service time, but I'm pretty sure that super-two guys and 3rd year guys are treated exactly the same in terms of comps. Robbie Cano is 25, where as Phillips is 27. With the buyout in 2012 included, Cano got 4/30. I think a Phillips contract would be quite similar.

The Enquirer finally has it.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...T04/302150042/