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I'm sorry, but I still have not seen a conclusive replay. I've read a lot of Tweets from people claiming the replays or screen-captures are conclusive, but I'm looking at the same things and I'm just not seeing it. I'm not seeing a for sure in any of them.
Yes, the throw beat Lugo by 10 feet and that's usually an automatic out. And hey, don't we get pissed off at umpires who assume outs, just because the throw's there in plenty of time? I do.
It might not be likely, but it's possible that Jerry Meals saw something, something real, that none of the cameras were able to see. If there was an eighth of an inch between Michael McKenry's mitt and Julio Lugo's pants, would the cameras have caught that gap? Not from what I've been able to tell; none of the cameras were placed in just the right place to see that gap, if there was one.