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Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
Do you think the Reds should re-sign Bronson Arroyo, a free agent to be this offseason, or let him walk? I could see them letting him walk due to his age and Cingrani and Stephenson coming up, but I could also see them resigning him since Cueto's health has been questionable.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
I think I make him the qualifying offer and if he takes it I don't have an issue with him being back and if he doesn't cingrani takes his spot and the reds collect the pick.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
So long Bronson thank` for playing in Cincinnati.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
You have to make the qualifying offer. Simply letting him walk without the offer and getting nothing is plainly silly. He will get more than a single year offer from other teams and will almost certainly turn down the Reds qualifying offer and gets them a draft pick. If he surprises and accepts it - it is a one year deal so no big deal. It gives another year to ease Cingrani in and bring Stephenson, Rogers, Lorenzen and Corcino along. Simply saying so long Bronson is short sighted and shows no understanding of the free agent process, the draft or just how valuable a pitcher Arroyo is.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
I don't think the Reds can afford the qualifying offer at $13M for next season for Bronson. Payroll sits near $110M and even without Choo the arb bumps to Latos, Bailey, Leake and the Chapman contract nuances will eat up any payflex.
Assuming Cueto is healthy and Bailey isn't dealt due to not inking a LTC, Bronson is a 13M a year sixth starter luxury the Reds just can't afford next season.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
I'd let him walk. Arroyo does eat innings and is a capable pitcher but his money can be spent better elsewhere. It'd cost at least 10 million/year to resign him and that money can be better spent elsewhere on an IF upgrade at SS/3B or for a LTC for Latos or Bailey. If you don't resign him next year you still have a rotation of Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani with Reynolds (who the Reds give a low cost major league contract)/Rogers/Stephenson waiting in the wings.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
He is looking for a multi year deal. A qualifying offer is not likely to be accepted and the dearth of decent pitching - he is almost certain to get a two or three year offer. Make the qualifying offer. You don't want to walk away without any compensation. I think that would be a HUGE mistake for a small market type club. The Reds need that pick. The risk he accepts the offer is low. I'd say extremely low since he has to accept or reject their offer well before the prime free agent signing season is over with.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
I agree, you give him a qualifying offer. I don't believe he'll accept it but, if he does, I'd put him on the market and see if there is a way you can trade him and replace Choo.
I'd much, much rather have Choo than Arroyo.
Rem
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
I agree with most of you. Make a qualifying offer for an one year deal, due to his age, that he won´t accept. Get the pick and let him walk. I will have a tear in my eye though cause i really liked his relaxed attitude. And that is one thing, aside from his still not so shabby number, which will be really missed in the clubhouse especially by the young pitching staff.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
herbdizzle
I'd let him walk. Arroyo does eat innings and is a capable pitcher but his money can be spent better elsewhere. It'd cost at least 10 million/year to resign him and that money can be better spent elsewhere on an IF upgrade at SS/3B or for a LTC for Latos or Bailey. If you don't resign him next year you still have a rotation of Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani with Reynolds (who the Reds give a low cost major league contract)/Rogers/Stephenson waiting in the wings.
I like Bronson a lot, but after what Cingrani has done this year, how can he not be at minimum the number four starter next year. He pitches like a two almost every time out. Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Cingrani, and Leake could be a real strong rotation next year.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
oregonred
I don't think the Reds can afford the qualifying offer at $13M for next season for Bronson. Payroll sits near $110M and even without Choo the arb bumps to Latos, Bailey, Leake and the Chapman contract nuances will eat up any payflex.
Assuming Cueto is healthy and Bailey isn't dealt due to not inking a LTC, Bronson is a 13M a year sixth starter luxury the Reds just can't afford next season.
I agree that the move is risky. I think you make the offer, but if he accepts the Reds will be forced to deal Bailey or Chapman and maybe another $2 to $3 Million or so player to make it fit (Hanigan? Heisey? Lecure?).
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
I feel he will end up back in Boston.. just a gut feeling.. But I feel the Reds will make the Qualifying offer
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
At one time, Bronson was the Reds' #1 and commanded his 12 million dollar contract, which the Reds paid. Now, it's way too much to spend on a #4,5 or 6 pitcher......which is what he will be in 2014. I just don't see too many teams willing to ante up a multi year contract for those numbers at his age. He's been good for the Reds but time to move on......unless he's willing to take less, which I doubt.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
Every year, year after year 200 innings, 12-14 wins, era around 4, no missed starts, and the type of delivery and stuff that should last for another 2-3 years. You don't think anyone will be interested? I think you are wrong about that.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
He'll always be one of my favorites, but unless he's willing to strike a deal that's way under market value, they're probably at the point where they should let him go. With Cueto back from injury and Cingrani doing well and a couple more young prospects showing high potential, they can't afford to have big money tied up in him moving forward IMO.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
RedlegJake
Every year, year after year 200 innings, 12-14 wins, era around 4, no missed starts, and the type of delivery and stuff that should last for another 2-3 years. You don't think anyone will be interested? I think you are wrong about that.
Some team will, no doubt. Though it's hard to say what they'll offer.
His ERA also may be unusually inflated by the 2-3 games each year that Bad Arroyo starts.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
need hitting, the rotation of leake, cingrani cueto, bailey and latos is good enough
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
Everyone don't get me wrong. I don't think the Reds should bring Bronson back. I just think they should make the qualifying offer. Maybe some of you don't understand the rules for qualifying offers. The Reds have five days after the Series ends to make Bronson a qualifying offer - 1 year at around 13.3 million (don't know this years exact figure) - He then has seven days to accept or reject it. That is basically it. So - Bronson doesn't have the luxury of getting a bunch of offers or not, then deciding to take the Reds offer or not. He has to decide then and there BEFORE the FA agent season gets into swing. He has stated many times that he wants a multi year deal. I believe he will reject a qualifying offer. If the Reds do not make such an offer he walks with no compensation whatever to the Reds. There is little risk, imo, that he will accept such an offer. Bronson knows at 37, if he waits another year, his chance of a multi year deal goes down significantly. 38 IS different than 37 in the baseball marketplace. So - make him the offer, get that draft pick. Go with Cueto-Latos-Bailey-Leake-Cingrani next year. Induct Bronson in the Reds HoF when he retires. And hopefully that draft pick goes all Stephenson or Votto for us down the road.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
Its a shame, but he'll be gone. As will Choo. And the Reds will be fine. Definitely an all-time great Reds pitcher. I remember a few years ago when he was by far our best player, hands down
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
RedlegJake
Every year, year after year 200 innings, 12-14 wins, era around 4, no missed starts, and the type of delivery and stuff that should last for another 2-3 years. You don't think anyone will be interested? I think you are wrong about that.
I think a team with a weak pitching staff will pay for Bronson, it makes sense to give him a qualifying offer so the Reds get a compensation pick. To be honest I enjoy having a starting rotation like the Reds have. Price deserves to be the highest paid pitching coach out there. I can't recall a staff as good as this since the Reds had Tom Seaver, before Wagner nuked the team.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
CmdrCody
I think a team with a weak pitching staff will pay for Bronson, it makes sense to give him a qualifying offer so the Reds get a compensation pick. To be honest I enjoy having a starting rotation like the Reds have. Price deserves to be the highest paid pitching coach out there. I can't recall a staff as good as this since the Reds had Tom Seaver, before Wagner nuked the team.
?? Besides Seaver they were very average
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
bob jones
need hitting, the rotation of leake, cingrani cueto, bailey and latos is good enough
I think we need to re-sign him. We've been awful lucky in terms of health with starting pitching the last 2 years compared to the rest of MLB. A back strain for Cingrani and a lat for Cueto. Both of those could end up being long term problems. If the re-up Arroyo, we have a guaranteed 200 IP. If everyone stays healthy, Leake can work out of the BP. JMHO.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
mth123
I agree that the move is risky. I think you make the offer, but if he accepts the Reds will be forced to deal Bailey or Chapman and maybe another $2 to $3 Million or so player to make it fit (Hanigan? Heisey? Lecure?).
Honestly, it's tempting to resign Arroyo to a 2-3 year deal and trade Bailey ( if needed). The Reds can trade Bailey on their own timeline (for example, when they are confident Cueto is healthy).
2-3 years of Arroyo + whatever you get for Bailey > 1 year of Homer + draft pick for letting Arroyo walk
Or at least potentially so. This assumes Homer is gone after 2014. If Homer is willing to talk about resigning and it's possible financially, that changes everything.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
If the chance came to sign Bailey over Bronson, I would do it without a blink. But, Bailey does not want to be here long term and Bronson is too old and has too much wear on him to sign. I would trade Bailey for some hitting prospects and bring up Stephenson asap. Leake, Latos, Cigrani, Stephenson, and Cueto is a solid rotation for "14
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
Arroyo proved to be a valuable asset for a young staff. His time and need has come and gone. It's time to use his spot in the rotation to bring a young guy along and keep building for the future. Cueto, Latos, Leake, Bailey, and Cingrani seems just fine to me, and leaves room in AAA for a new ace of the future to step up and get plenty of innings.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedlegJake
Every year, year after year 200 innings, 12-14 wins, era around 4, no missed starts, and the type of delivery and stuff that should last for another 2-3 years. You don't think anyone will be interested? I think you are wrong about that.
He can be expected to be a rock upon which everyone else can stand for hopefully, another year. How many times has Arroyo been the stopper when the team has been in a slide? Answer: Too many times to at least not make a serious effort to keep him. However, I do understand the attitude of "let him go". I just don't think that is prudent. Kinda' like letting Perez go in '77. Leadership is an intanglble..
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
gedred69
He can be expected to be a rock upon which everyone else can stand for hopefully, another year. How many times has Arroyo been the stopper when the team has been in a slide? Answer: Too many times to at least not make a serious effort to keep him. However, I do understand the attitude of "let him go". I just don't think that is prudent. Kinda' like letting Perez go in '77. Leadership is an intanglble..
...and what about the inevitable home runs Arroyo gives up? It's time to move on and bring in a guy that will hopefully improve, like a Cingrani, than to just hope every 5th day that Arroyo will only give hope a couple solo homers and the Red's offense can outscore their opponent.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
gedred69
He can be expected to be a rock upon which everyone else can stand for hopefully, another year. How many times has Arroyo been the stopper when the team has been in a slide? Answer: Too many times to at least not make a serious effort to keep him. However, I do understand the attitude of "let him go". I just don't think that is prudent. Kinda' like letting Perez go in '77. Leadership is an intanglble..
But, you can't get him on a one-year deal. He's going to want 2-3 years for a lot of money.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
I don't think he gets offered the qualifying offer.
If he declines, it lessens his free agency worth.
Recent estimates I've seen have him as a 2 yr 25 MM player if the Reds don't offer a qualifying offer. If they do, his price probably drops as teams won't pursue him having to give up a draft pick.
Reds are in a catch 22 with the QA.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
I don't think he gets offered the qualifying offer.
If he declines, it lessens his free agency worth.
Recent estimates I've seen have him as a 2 yr 25 MM player if the Reds don't offer a qualifying offer. If they do, his price probably drops as teams won't pursue him having to give up a draft pick.
Reds are in a catch 22 with the QA.
Somewhat. Make the offer. Take the risk. 1 year. It's liveable with questions to both Cingrani and Cueto's long term health.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
KYBatsFan
Its a shame, but he'll be gone. As will Choo. And the Reds will be fine. Definitely an all-time great Reds pitcher. I remember a few years ago when he was by far our best player, hands down
Agree on Bronson. It's been a really good run and he will be missed. Unfortunately, the economics are what they are.
Will Choo be gone if someone like BP were to be dealt first?
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
If Arroyo goes, why does Choo have to go? The Reds could afford him, especially if they decide to let Broxton go. That's $20 million between those two. The question becomes, do they keep Zach Duke who they have been trying to get for years to be the long reliever or situational lefty out of the pen. Hoover will slide into Broxton's role, and Cingrani moves into the rotation. Choo will get about $15 million next year which will actually save the Reds money, because they can let Ludwick and his $2 million go as well.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
Lewdog
If Arroyo goes, why does Choo have to go? The Reds could afford him, especially if they decide to let Broxton go. That's $20 million between those two. The question becomes, do they keep Zach Duke who they have been trying to get for years to be the long reliever or situational lefty out of the pen. Hoover will slide into Broxton's role, and Cingrani moves into the rotation. Choo will get about $15 million next year which will actually save the Reds money, because they can let Ludwick and his $2 million go as well.
Pay raises, Arb eligible players, need for short stop, etc etc. Walt has his work cut out for him in the off season. Sounds like Choo is top priority though.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
SporkLover
Pay raises, Arb eligible players, need for short stop, etc etc. Walt has his work cut out for him in the off season. Sounds like Choo is top priority though.
If the Reds were so worried about Short stop, they wouldn't have given Cozart the job, traded Gregorius and moved Hamilton to centerfield.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
Lewdog
If the Reds were so worried about Short stop, they wouldn't have given Cozart the job, traded Gregorius and moved Hamilton to centerfield.
They really didn't have a reason then. A offensively weak SS is ok to carry if you have a good defender and strong lineup around to pick up the slack. This year the reds are looking at a offensively slumping BP, a streaky lineup, and although Cozy is one of their better hitters these last two months....Walt would be fooling himself to not consider a stronger SS candidate.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
SporkLover
They really didn't have a reason then. A offensively weak SS is ok to carry if you have a good defender and strong lineup around to pick up the slack. This year the reds are looking at a offensively slumping BP, a streaky lineup, and although Cozy is one of their better hitters these last two months....Walt would be fooling himself to not consider a stronger SS candidate.
The winning recipe for eons has been, great pitching, a strong bullpen, defense up the middle (cather, SS, 2B, and CF), speed up the middle (SS, 2B, and CF), and power at the corners.
The Reds have the second best starting pitching staff behind the Pirates, one of the best closers in MLB, strong defense up the middle with Choo being the weakest link, decent speed up the middle which will get MUCH better with Hamilton...their weakness is power at the corners. Some people think Votto walks too much for a first baseman, Frasier doesn't have enough power, and left field is a revolving door. The Reds HAVE to solidify left field first and foremost, and the money from letting Arroyo leave is going to be a major factor in that. Frasier needs to get some more power and be more consistent, and the Reds have to get a more consistent effort at the plate from their catchers. Cozart is no where near the top of that list, unless he starts making errors, which he has been good at not doing.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
Lewdog
...and what about the inevitable home runs Arroyo gives up? It's time to move on and bring in a guy that will hopefully improve, like a Cingrani, than to just hope every 5th day that Arroyo will only give hope a couple solo homers and the Red's offense can outscore their opponent.
Bronson is having a great year.
71% of his starts are quality starts (tied for 18th in the league, best on Reds)
29th in the league in ERA. (Leake is 15th, Latos is 18th)
The guy has been a rock of consistency this year. I don't worry at all when he starts games. He does give up some HR, but as you said, most are solo HRs.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
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Originally Posted by
SporkLover
They really didn't have a reason then. A offensively weak SS is ok to carry if you have a good defender and strong lineup around to pick up the slack. This year the reds are looking at a offensively slumping BP, a streaky lineup, and although Cozy is one of their better hitters these last two months....Walt would be fooling himself to not consider a stronger SS candidate.
They mentioned on a game that Cozart has been working hard with the assistant hitting coach all year and shortening his swing.
I have hope that Cozart's "hot streak" is the result of a real adjustment, which will help him for the long term.
At Cozart's salary, he's a great value for the team. Not sure the Reds are going to get an upgrade without spending a lot of money or trading a lot of prospects.. Look at how Didi was valued this offseason.. Bauer was a very highly regarded pitching prospect.
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
I really don't think you can go into a season with just 5 starters any longer, and hope for the best with health. If you don't bring Arroyo back, you have to bring in some other 6th starting option, imo. I suspect the budget will not be there to bring Arroyo back, and some other organizational filler will be brought in.
jvs
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Re: Arroyo: Re-sign or let walk in the offseason?
Bronson has been great for us, but money dictates that we won't be able to hold onto him for next year. That said, it's nice to have someone like him to go to (especially) when we've had so many starting pitcher injuries to work through this year.