BA's Updated Reds Top 10 List

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...2/2612765.html


1. Devin Mesoraco, c
2. Billy Hamilton, ss
3. Zack Cozart, ss
4. Daniel Corcino, rhp
5. Robert Stephenson, rhp
6. DiDi Gregorius, ss
7. Todd Frazier, 3b/1b/of

8. Neftali Soto, 1b
When the Reds drafted Soto in the third round in 2007, he was considered a polished hitter who might not be able to stick at shortstop. Five seasons later, Soto has bounced from shortstop to third base to catcher and finally to first base. His bat has risen to the occasion, as he tied Paul Goldschmidt for the Double-A Southern League lead with 31 homers in 2011 despite missing a month with a broken bone in his left wrist. His plus power started translating into production once he became less pull-happy. He hit 11 homers in 2009, with nine to left field and none to right. Last year, 10 of his 31 blasts were opposite-field shots. Soto's approach is still undisciplined, as he rarely takes ball four, and some scouts question his ability to handle quality inside fastballs. His value lies mainly in his bat, as he's a well below-average runner and an average-at-best defender. He has a strong arm, though it doesn't get much use at first base. Added to the 40-man roster in November, he's ready for Triple-A.

9. J.C. Sulbaran, rhp
Ever since the Reds' gave him $500,000 as a 30th-rounder in 2008, Sulbaran has shown some of the better stuff in the system but not the performance to match. Maturity issues have been his biggest obstacle, and blister problems also haven't helped. In 2011, he finally took some steps forward, posting career bests in ERA (4.60) and strikeouts per nine innings (10.2) in the high Class A California League, a notorious hitter's haven. Cincinnati managed to get Sulbaran better directed toward home plate in his delivery last year. He still throws across his body but not nearly as much as in the past, and his improved mechanics gave him increased ability to locate pitches to his arm side. After sitting at 89-92 mph with his fastball in previous years, Sulbaran rang up a lot of 93s and 94s and touched 95 in 2011. His fastball has late sink, which makes it more effective. He's still working on his secondary pitches, an erratic curveball that's a plus offering at times and a fringy changeup that gives him a chance against lefthanders. Sulbaran has the stuff to be a No. 3 starter if he can continue to improve his command and mound presence. He'll work on that in Double-A this year.

10. Ryan LaMarre, of
In any other season, LaMarre's 55 stolen bases would have stood out among Reds farmhands. No one in the system had swiped that many since 1994, but he took a back seat to Billy Hamilton, who led the minors with 103. LaMarre might have been even more prolific if not for a series of minor hamstring injuries. An outstanding athlete, he was the leading tackler on consecutive state-championship football teams in high school and was also a hockey star. He has well above-average speed and shows a feel for getting leads and reading pitchers. LaMarre had a quick bat and shows solid raw power in batting practice, but it hasn't come through in games. Instead he uses a top-of-the-order approach with good selectivity and an all-fields mentality. He also has a knack for laying down bunts. LaMarre is average defensively in center field with an arm that's strong enough to let him handle right field as well. He got a taste of Double-A at the end of the season and will head to the Reds' new Pensacola affiliate to begin 2012. LaMarre's bat will determine whether he ends up as a regular or a useful fourth outfielder.

MLB.com has a revised list also:

1. Devin Mesaraco
2, Billy Hamilton
3. Yorman Rodriguez
4. Zach Cozart
5. Todd Frazier
6. Juan Francisco
7. Donnie Joseph
9. Didi Gregorious
9. Daniel Corcino
10. JC Sulbaran

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/mlb/p...2011/#list=cin

Minus Stephenson, Soto. LeMarre
Plus Rodriguez, Francisco, Joseph

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Originally Posted by corkedbat

MLB.com has a revised list also:

1. Devin Mesaraco
2, Billy Hamilton
3. Yorman Rodriguez
4. Zach Cozart
5. Todd Frazier
6. Juan Francisco
7. Donnie Joseph
9. Didi Gregorious
9. Daniel Corcino
10. JC Sulbaran

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/mlb/p...2011/#list=cin

Minus Stephenson, Soto. LeMarre
Plus Rodriguez, Francisco, Joseph

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Juan Francisco no longer qualifies. Shouldn't be on the list.

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Originally Posted by corkedbat

MLB.com has a revised list also:

1. Devin Mesaraco
2, Billy Hamilton
3. Yorman Rodriguez
4. Zach Cozart
5. Todd Frazier
6. Juan Francisco
7. Donnie Joseph
9. Didi Gregorious
9. Daniel Corcino
10. JC Sulbaran

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/mlb/p...2011/#list=cin

Minus Stephenson, Soto. LeMarre
Plus Rodriguez, Francisco, Joseph

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Wow, what a horrible list. An ineligible player (Francisco) and Donnie Joseph over Corcino, Stephenson and Cingrani.

LaMarre's scouting report is fairly glowing.

Good to hear.

I like JCS and Lamarre better than Soto. Pretty solid 8-10.

BA drools over stolen bases so much. Hamilton at #2 and especially LaMarre at #10 is way off IMO.

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Originally Posted by Superdude

BA drools over stolen bases so much. Hamilton at #2 and especially LaMarre at #10 is way off IMO.

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It isn't BA. It is scouts. Scouts will absolutely overrate speed more than any other tool a player has. With that said, I certainly get them ranking both players where they did. Hamilton has the chance to be a special defensive player. He can simply make plays that you can't teach other guys. He gets to balls that very good shortstops only dream of getting to. If he can develop into the type of defender his ceiling suggests he could, he doesn't have to hit much to be a very good player. LaMarre, while not having the same defensive ceiling as Hamilton does have a good defensive ceiling at a premiere position and that position also isn't flush with good bats. If he can OPS .775 and play the defense that is expected of him, he is probably a borderline All-Star caliber player (in terms of value, not the guys who get voted in).

Torreyes was to be the #10 in the replacement list after the Latos trade and before the Marshall trade.

LaMarre at #10 is a joke. He has shown very-little power and like Doug said steals are a heavily-overrated stat. And I could live with LaMarre's lack of power if he were getting on base at a high rate. But he's not. Not even close.

And he's also an "average" defensive CF at best. Not the scouting report I wanted to hear. I can't believe he's ranked 10th by BA (a publication I actually respect unlike ESPN).

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Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

LaMarre at #10 is a joke. He has shown very-little power and like Doug said steals are a heavily-overrated stat. And I could live with LaMarre's lack of power if he were getting on base at a high rate. But he's not. Not even close.

And he's also an "average" defensive CF at best. Not the scouting report I wanted to hear. I can't believe he's ranked 10th by BA (a publication I actually respect unlike ESPN).

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But if he hits for even a little power, he could be pretty valuable. It comes down to if you believe his power is in there or not.

And it's easy to believe that power is there, from all the scouting reports. He's a candidate for a breakout season like Sappelt's, though Lamarre's stealing ability would give him an extra leg up. Even if he doesn't reach his potential and ends up a 4th outfielder, there's a lot to like about how he profiles there: good defense, range, and arm, ability to play all outfield positions, and bunting skill combined with speed. With the hits our system has taken, #10 doesn't seem like too bad a ranking.

As for Joseph at number 7... many prospect lists that I've seen have at least one pet choice who may not even belong on the list, but are their guesses for a breakout season. If that first list hadn't come out before the trade and hogtied them into moving him up, he'd still be at number 10.

Just a heads up, the MLB.com Reds list is not an "updated" list. After it was posted, I talked with Mayo and he said that is last years list, not this years list. This years list will be out in a few weeks.

Makes a ton more sense.

To me, personally, stolen bases is an UNDERRATED stat. Sure, the argument is that a single +SB does not equal a double, due to inability to drive someone in with that SB. But its the same as the argument between a single and a walk. With a runner on 2B, a single scores him, a walk does not. Yet, walking is the most important stat in sabremetrics and on this website.

Now, if a guy is getting thrown out a good percentage, I agree its worthless. But to say 55 steals isn't worth looking at is a flat out lie. In a time where offense is declining and pitching is on the rise, small is going to find its way back in the game, as you can see with the NL regaining momentum vs. the AL. Stealing bases IS small ball, and while it can lose you some runs, if managed right, and can steal you many many more runs.

And yes, I just had about 50 different arguments in that one piece. /rant

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Originally Posted by 11larkin11

To me, personally, stolen bases is an UNDERRATED stat. Sure, the argument is that a single +SB does not equal a double, due to inability to drive someone in with that SB. But its the same as the argument between a single and a walk. With a runner on 2B, a single scores him, a walk does not. Yet, walking is the most important stat in sabremetrics and on this website.

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No, it isn't. That is just what you seem to be taking from conversations.

Quote:

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Now, if a guy is getting thrown out a good percentage, I agree its worthless. But to say 55 steals isn't worth looking at is a flat out lie. In a time where offense is declining and pitching is on the rise, small is going to find its way back in the game, as you can see with the NL regaining momentum vs. the AL. Stealing bases IS small ball, and while it can lose you some runs, if managed right, and can steal you many many more runs.

And yes, I just had about 50 different arguments in that one piece. /rant

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Steals aren't worthless, but they are often overrated because the amount of guys who can steal enough to make a difference AND do so at a high enough rate to make a difference are incredibly rare. Like with all blanket statements, there are exceptions. But with most guys, the trade off for that extra base isn't worth the risk of the out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 11larkin11

To me, personally, stolen bases is an UNDERRATED stat. Sure, the argument is that a single +SB does not equal a double, due to inability to drive someone in with that SB. But its the same as the argument between a single and a walk. With a runner on 2B, a single scores him, a walk does not. Yet, walking is the most important stat in sabremetrics and on this website.

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We also hate kittens and babies and live in our mother's basement.

Quote:

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Now, if a guy is getting thrown out a good percentage, I agree its worthless. But to say 55 steals isn't worth looking at is a flat out lie. In a time where offense is declining and pitching is on the rise, small is going to find its way back in the game, as you can see with the NL regaining momentum vs. the AL. Stealing bases IS small ball, and while it can lose you some runs, if managed right, and can steal you many many more runs.

And yes, I just had about 50 different arguments in that one piece. /rant

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Nobody disagrees with you -- steals can add real value to a player's production. They just should be treated in proportion to their actual value and in the broader context of runs added/lost in total on the bases.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 11larkin11

To me, personally, stolen bases is an UNDERRATED stat. Sure, the argument is that a single +SB does not equal a double, due to inability to drive someone in with that SB. But its the same as the argument between a single and a walk. With a runner on 2B, a single scores him, a walk does not. Yet, walking is the most important stat in sabremetrics and on this website.

Now, if a guy is getting thrown out a good percentage, I agree its worthless. But to say 55 steals isn't worth looking at is a flat out lie. In a time where offense is declining and pitching is on the rise, small is going to find its way back in the game, as you can see with the NL regaining momentum vs. the AL. Stealing bases IS small ball, and while it can lose you some runs, if managed right, and can steal you many many more runs.

And yes, I just had about 50 different arguments in that one piece. /rant

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dont bring up RBI or you'll be tarred and feathered then run out of town :)

I think we do tend to equate plate discipline to the sabremetrician viewpoint and stolen bases to the traditional. My question is, why not use both?

Stolen bases are remarkably similar to walks, IMO, because both are about the balance of patience and aggressiveness.

If you are too patient, you tend to strike out an absolute ton (i.e., 2011 versions of Stubbs and Dunn), thereby harming your team's offense. (As you don't get hits nor do you put the ball in play.) OTOH, a player who's too aggressive tends to really hurt the team offensively if he's not killing the ball (i.e., 2010 Gomes, cleanup Phillips). There's a trade-off there.

The same can be said for the stolen base. A guy who steals bases at around a 70% clip helps the team with his legs. That percentage will go down as teams struggle to score runs. Great runners (Larkin and Eric Davis, for example) really help the team, much like those with great patience do. Hamilton, so far, seems to be firmly in that great runner echelon.

I do agree that many posters on Redszone tend to pooh-pooh the stolen base and its effect on scoring. That's likely (again, IMO) because they've grown up or learned about baseball during a time when runs are as cheap as a ten dollar hooker.

Seems really strange to have one list Yorman as the #3 prospect in the system and then the other list to not even have him in the top 10.

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Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Seems really strange to have one list Yorman as the #3 prospect in the system and then the other list to not even have him in the top 10.

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Everyone loves the tools. A wide variety of opinions on everything else he brings.

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Originally Posted by RedsManRick

We also hate kittens and babies and live in our mother's basement.

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Sure took you a long time to fess up to that one :p