I've seen Bruce make some improvements this year that give me at least cautious optimism that he won't be subject to as prolonged slumps as we've seen from him in the past.
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I've seen Bruce make some improvements this year that give me at least cautious optimism that he won't be subject to as prolonged slumps as we've seen from him in the past.
Switching people around right now feels like arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. OK, to be honest, this isn't a sinking ship, but the difference in the current lineup and maximum optimization would not improve a whole lot.
How about we just skip Cozart in the batting order. He can just play defense. Skip the catcher, pitcher and left fielder too.
Choo
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Frazier
That's your new lineup. I don't think opposing teams will complain.
From what I've seen, the projection is that lineup maximization would add about 20 runs to the Reds' offense per season. That works out to about 2 extra wins or so, which could come in handy in September, to be sure.
I've never understood the argument that "it won't be that much of a difference anyway." If there is any chance for a positive change, I'd like the team to make it pronto.
If that's the case, why not draw lineups out of a hat each night, just to spice things up? Or have a fan contest to see who makes the lineup? :p
Joking, of course, but I can't believe you truly think the difference would be negligible. How can it not help you to get someone on base in front of Joey F. Votto and guys like BP and Bruce who are having decent seasons?
Dusty doesn't think Cozart should bat 2nd. He just can't imagine batting anybody else there on a regular basis. That's the problem. Any other combination simply forces him to think of using players outside of the roles he's already assigned them. So in his mind, he's got the lineup that puts the fewest guys out of "position". You guys are making an argument in a language Dusty doesn't speak.
It is a shame that he doesn't speak the language that most likely scores the most runs. What language would it take to make him hear what we're saying? We're on his side, really -- we just want the Reds to win, and stand to gain a lot less from it than he does if they do.
Honestly, I wonder if he's ever heard these arguments and, if he has, whether he has ever thought seriously about them. It's not rocket science, and it's certainly not nerdy, pocket-protector stuff. It's just math that says he should do things differently.
He won't. He understands baseball in a very different way; in many ways it gives him insights that we can't probably imagine. But the language of probabilities and maximizing opportunities simply takes too much of the "human" side of the game for Dusty to reorient himself. He's simply so well-versed in what he does know, that it's really hard to incorporate new information in a way that still makes sense and is properly weighted.
For example, I'm sure batting 2nd might make a guy feel uncomfortable. And in Dusty's mental model, player comfort is a huge factor in what enables them to perform. But it's not like he's thinking, "Oh, if I move Frazier he'll hit .220/.290/.340, but that's still better than Cozart, so let's do it." Because he's thinking about how the clubhouse will feel about it, how Frazier will feel, how it will affect his arbitration, etc.
Right or wrong, Dusty has a whole bunch of personal and clubhouse considerations that play a not-insignificant role in his "calculus", which likely doesn't include very much actually number crunching -- mostly just skill set fits and outputs like Runs and RBI.
Suggesting that those slash line stats should be the #1, #2, and #3, driving forces behind the lineup and that the rest should matter pretty much only at the margins is a total non-starter.
The thing about this time is, I think the only place you can get noticeably better production from offensively from now to the rest of the season by adding somebody on offense is SS, and I don't see the Reds being able to acquire a SS.
Sure Aramis Ramirez is a bit better than Frazier and you could get somebody who will be a bit better than Ludwick, but SS is the only position they could truly upgrade.
And before somebody mentions Didi, he's been just as bad as Cozart the last few months.
In the Reds case we are talking four reliable hitters. Four.
Three of them are already bunched up. Votto, Phillips, Bruce.
Want to bunch them with Choo, go ahead. Nobody here is saying no.
Think it will make much difference? Doubtful. It leaves five worse hitters all in a row.
The Reds need a couple of additional good hitters. The batting order is not the real fix. It's a band aid, a minor upgrade.