Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
The Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski has released the 2008 ZiPS system projections for the Cincinnati Reds here:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/
Please note that I'm not positioning these projections as being reliable and I have pretty much no insight into the ZiPS methodology. Just thought it would be a good topic for conversation.
The hitters:
Code:
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Adam Dunn* lf 28 .239 .366 .498 152 524 94 125 26 1 36 103 99 170 5 0
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .277 .357 .480 ------------------------------------------
Edwin Encarnacion 3b 25 .291 .361 .460 141 506 70 147 30 1 18 78 42 87 6 1
Ken Griffey Jr. * rf 38 .272 .346 .480 113 427 62 116 20 0 23 81 50 83 2 0
Joey Votto* 1b 24 .281 .357 .466 151 556 55 156 34 0 23 88 66 135 17 9
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .276 .349 .461 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .275 .346 .463 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .272 .343 .449 ------------------------------------------
Jay Bruce* cf 21 .266 .317 .476 137 523 48 139 42 4 20 73 38 152 12 9
Jeff Keppinger 2b 28 .307 .360 .408 121 449 60 138 23 2 6 48 35 31 3 2
Jorge Cantu 2b 26 .279 .324 .457 130 466 55 130 31 2 16 70 28 84 0 0
Brandon Phillips 2b 27 .271 .325 .435 146 568 87 154 26 2 21 79 39 94 22 6
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .270 .335 .425 ------------------------------------------
Jesse Gutierrez 1b 30 .265 .332 .423 85 279 26 74 18 1 8 39 25 57 0 0
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .275 .336 .414 ------------------------------------------
Daniel Dorn* lf 23 .247 .318 .436 125 470 41 116 27 1 20 72 36 118 3 1
Scott Hatteberg* 1b 38 .261 .348 .374 106 348 42 91 18 0 7 48 44 36 0 0
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .273 .329 .407 ------------------------------------------
Javier Valentin# c 32 .261 .328 .406 85 207 23 54 12 0 6 32 20 29 0 0
Ryan Freel cf 32 .264 .346 .376 108 386 62 102 22 3 5 33 41 70 26 10
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .258 .328 .403 ------------------------------------------
Sea Bass Gonzalez ss 31 .257 .317 .417 124 432 57 111 25 1 14 58 33 84 1 1
Mark Bellhorn# 2b 33 .216 .328 .380 103 305 33 66 18 1 10 44 47 106 0 0
Jason Ellison lf 30 .273 .322 .388 115 227 39 62 12 1 4 21 15 38 8 5
Adam Rosales 1b 25 .230 .306 .409 128 486 57 112 31 4 16 58 41 121 13 7
Ryan Hanigan c 27 .252 .332 .350 100 294 32 74 16 2 3 27 33 49 0 1
Chris Dickerson* cf 26 .225 .313 .380 138 476 50 107 19 5 15 52 56 190 23 8
Norris Hopper cf 29 .291 .330 .340 121 382 51 111 12 2 1 30 21 36 12 6
Craig Tatum c 25 .242 .281 .380 108 389 31 94 22 1 10 44 20 103 1 2
Ryan Jorgensen c 29 .218 .284 .356 77 239 24 52 12 0 7 25 22 70 1 0
Dave Ross c 31 .203 .275 .369 70 187 18 38 7 0 8 24 18 59 0 0
Juan Castro ss 36 .235 .280 .365 73 170 16 40 11 1 3 20 10 38 0 1
Paul Janish ss 25 .228 .294 .317 147 539 52 123 26 2 6 46 42 82 10 3
Andy Machado# ss 27 .205 .299 .303 123 347 37 71 12 2 6 29 45 103 7 4
Chris Valaika ss 22 .236 .280 .343 140 543 41 128 26 1 10 58 22 144 1 10
Drew Stubbs cf 23 .223 .301 .335 136 538 64 120 29 2 9 44 56 175 18 23
Marland Williams cf 27 .195 .259 .324 106 333 35 65 13 3 8 32 26 138 19 7
My comments:
ZiPS likes Eddie E's potential this season, is bullish on Jeff Keppinger (Szymborski suggests that the time to trade Brandon Phillips is now). Joey Votto looks about right, and ZiPS thinks that Griffey can contribute decent numbers in limited time (113 games). That feels decent as well.
ZiPS is bearish on Adam Dunn (projecting the second lowest full-season BA of his career) and doesn't think much of Brandon Phillips' chances of repeating his 30/30 season. We don't see any love for Alex Gonzalez or Scott Hatteberg and certainly ZiPS doesn't heart David Ross.
BTW, ZiPS projects that Josh Hamilton is likely to produce a line of .289 BA/.341 OBP/.491 SLG.
Then there's Jay Bruce...
Code:
Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RAR DR+
Optimistic (15%) .297 .355 .540 149 569 62 169 49 7 25 104 49 148 20 10 37 12
Mean .266 .317 .476 137 523 48 139 42 4 20 73 38 152 12 9 11 9
Pessimistic (15%) .239 .283 .416 124 473 37 113 35 2 15 65 29 152 7 8 -7 5
Please note that all projections include a low projected IsoD (OBP minus BA). I'm not saying that any of the projections are accurate, but as I've been warning folks about that.
Also, as the "Means" for Votto and Bruce project @290 Strikeouts, those who think the Reds already have enough K bats should get really excited. ;)
The pitchers:
Code:
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Francisco Cordero 33 3.34 5 2 71 0 70.0 61 26 5 27 80
David Weathers 38 3.84 5 3 63 0 68.0 66 29 8 26 46
Aaron Harang 30 3.87 13 10 33 33 221.0 219 95 26 52 196
Jared Burton 27 4.16 5 4 59 0 67.0 65 31 7 32 54
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.35 -----------------------------------------------
Bronson Arroyo 31 4.36 11 11 32 31 200.0 216 97 25 56 130
Bill Bray* 25 4.42 4 5 49 0 55.0 54 27 7 19 49
Brad Salmon 28 4.62 4 4 57 0 78.0 78 40 9 37 65
Jon Coutlangus* 27 4.64 3 3 63 0 66.0 66 34 7 35 53
Gary Majewski 28 4.68 3 4 74 0 75.0 83 39 7 30 44
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.78 -----------------------------------------------
Matt Belisle 28 4.89 5 7 40 15 114.0 131 62 14 30 73
Marcus McBeth 27 4.89 3 3 52 0 57.0 56 31 8 24 50
Homer Bailey 22 4.91 7 9 25 25 132.0 133 72 16 68 105
Todd Coffey 27 4.92 3 4 76 0 75.0 89 41 10 25 50
Johnny Cueto 22 4.97 9 12 29 29 154.0 164 85 24 49 122
Edinson Volquez 24 5.21 10 14 33 33 178.0 188 103 31 77 141
Mike Stanton* 41 5.24 3 4 68 0 55.0 64 32 7 21 36
Matthew Maloney* 24 5.45 9 15 28 28 170.0 180 103 28 85 129
Bobby Livingston* 25 5.78 5 11 26 24 151.0 189 97 25 38 72
Tyler Pelland* 24 5.82 4 9 45 15 116.0 126 75 15 76 77
Richie Gardner 26 5.87 4 8 17 17 89.0 104 58 16 29 52
Steve Kelly 28 6.03 4 9 22 16 100.0 121 67 18 39 61
Alexander Smit* 22 6.36 3 8 31 15 99.0 111 70 17 64 71
Daryl Thompson 22 7.04 3 9 18 18 78.0 93 61 12 31 57
Sergio Valenzuela 23 8.52 1 3 34 5 75.0 101 71 21 50 30
While I'm incredibly excited to see that Gary Majewski might project only as a bad middle reliever rather than an awful one (note sarcasm), that list isn't giving me warm fuzzies. Here are the projected per-9 IP rates for the top 3 pitching prospects included (Bailey, Cueto, Volquez):
Bailey: 4.63 BB/9, 7.16 K/9, 1.09 HR/9
Cueto: 2.86 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 1.40 HR/9
Volquez: 3.89 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 1.57 HR/9
Feel free to discuss.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
Thanks for the info, Steel, but looking at some of those numbers is depressing. I definitely liked Bill James' a lot better...
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Screwball
Thanks for the info, Steel, but looking at some of those numbers is depressing. I definitely liked Bill James' a lot better...
Well, I agree on that. However, after seeing the James' projections, I had a feeling that I could project out as only a slightly below-replacement level player and the last time I took swings was a few months ago at medium speed in a batting cage. ;)
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
Roughly an .800 OPS for Jay Bruce as a 21 year old centerfielder that projects to be a little above average in CF? Yeah, I will take that every day of the week.
Little low on Dunns slugging line, but his AVG/OBP is something I could certainly see.
Votto's line looks good, but I think his BB/K rate will be a little better than projected (more like 70/120ish).
I like Phillips a little more than they do in the slugging department.... otherwise it looks about right.
Really interesting how much power it projects Danny Dorn to have.
Also very interesting how little the system likes Adam Rosales. I think he could do MUCH better than what he is projected at.
Don't like what it has Bailey at for reasons that have been discuss a billion times. Really surprised by the HR rate it has Bailey at.
Think Volquez will also do quite a bit better than these projections have.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
The line for Volquez really jumped out at me. I think he'll be significantly better than that.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
FWIW, this chart told us pretty much exactly what we already knew about our pitching -- right now it's Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and 3 days of your prayers.
Interesting line to me was Matt Belisle. I've got him penciled in as my breakout candidate (potentially to the 200IP mark) for this season, yet ZiPS only figures him for 15 starts and just a shade over 100 IP. His numbers are at about league average, just mostly as a reliever here.
I'm a little more optimistic on Volquez, Burton, and Bray than they are, but I also don't figure Bailey or Majewski to come near the posted numbers they have.
Interesting list, thanks for the post Steel.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
This is a lot more realistic than the other projections I've seen so far.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
For Comparison sake - here is what they had listed for 2007
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...highlight=ZiPS
Code:
Name BA OBP SLG AB RC
Dunn,Adam .259 .382 .536 556 114
Phillips,Brandon .266 .320 .405 511 66
Hatteberg,Scott .270 .360 .398 460 66
Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489 454 78
Gonzalez,Alex .245 .293 .390 449 51
Freel,Ryan .265 .361 .376 441 60
Griffey Jr. ,Ken .270 .342 .506 423 73
Denorfia,Chris .287 .353 .440 418 65
Conine,Jeff .266 .333 .394 406 53
Castro,Juan .240 .277 .351 262 25
Moeller,Chad .206 .266 .314 223 19
Ross,Dave .234 .326 .482 197 31
Valentin,Javier .256 .326 .446 195 28
Hamilton,Josh .261 .305 .412 165 21
Keppinger,Jeff .286 .338 .360 50 6
Pitchers .142 .164 .204 309 10
Totals .254 .330 .417 5519 759
Name ERA G GS INN R
Arroyo,Bronson 3.86 34 32 212 100
Harang,Aaron 4.03 33 33 210 103
Milton,Eric 4.96 31 31 178 107
Lohse,Kyle 4.96 35 27 167 101
Santos,Victor 5.08 26 20 124 77
Belisle,Matt 4.95 42 13 109 66
Majewski,Gary 4.21 69 1 77 39
Coffey,Todd 4.04 70 0 69 34
Weathers,David 5.35 66 0 69 45
Stanton,Mike 3.71 68 0 68 30
Shackelford,Brian 4.81 62 0 58 34
Cormier,Rheal 4.89 68 0 57 34
Bray,Bill 4.79 42 0 47 27
Totals 4.53 646 157 1445 797
Pretty darn close to being spot on for Junior & Dunn. Phillips obviously had a higher slugging balanced out by the slugging prediction that EdE didn't meet. They underpredicted AGon and overshot on Ross. But the hitters weren't really far out of the ballpark.
For the pitchers - Arroyo & Harang balance out - but other than Lohse & Weathers, seems like every pitcher was worse than the guess.
All that is FYI - who knows what it means in the big picture. So that all that for what it's worth.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
It's hard to agree or disagree with these projections without knowing what formula or methodology Szymborski used to arrive at his conclusions.
I agree with Screwball, I like Bill James' projections better. ;)
It will be interesting to see just how close Szymborski and James come to their projections.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
Look at those stats on Cantu. Huge mistake, I tells ya.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
Dan will never get into the Old Red Guard. That Seabass stuff is a no-no.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
Seeing these numbers for David Ross makes me wonder if the Reds should consider bringing in Johnny Estrrada. Ross and Javy are both potentially gone after this year and there is no one exciting on the horizon.
I'm not a big Estrada fan, but he's better than anything in house and he seems to hit well every other year. 2008 should be his year again (I know that isn't scientific or really an indication of anything). A two year deal with an option for a 3rd would probably be pretty attractive to Estrada and might be fairly cheap since he likely isn't getting many multi-year offers. It would upgrade the spot in 2008 and provide a safety net to give a kid like Craig Tatum a shot in 2009 while we all hold our breath waiting for Mesoraco.
Since Estrada is a switch hitter it would allow the Reds to put both Javy and Ross on the block for salary relief, roster relief, and maybe even get something in return. I'm guessing Javy might be desirable to teams as a cheap LH bench bat/emergency catcher. I'd guess that AL teams that don't need to double switch, or run the risk of running out of PH, and could make use of Javy as an occasional DH, might find his alleged ability to play behind the plate attractive in a guy primarily kept around to hit against RH pitchers. The Reds already seemingly have Hatte for that role. Other teams may be interested in Ross and his reputation for stopping the running game. You won't get Edinson Volquez for them, but maybe something useful down the road.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
I half expected Norris Hopper's projected SLG to be lower than his OBP.
I'd love to see Drew Stubbs and Chris Dickerson combine to see 1014 AB so they can whiff 365 times between them. That would be special.
72% SB rate for Ryan Freel seems about right, given his propensity to create outs on the basepaths. Not even Farney can help him from getting picked off or avoid getting caught stealing.
If Brandon Phillips projects for only 568 AB, then I can only hope it means he's never batting any higher than 5th in the order.
As long as Adam Dunn's AVG is within 5% of his weight, that's good enough, right?
Tom Shearn's projections must have been so outrageously awesome that they are too good for publication, b/c he is, after all, the answer to 2008.
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
13-10 for Aaron Harang????? I think it will be better than that.
And how do they know that Bronson will make a relief appearance?
BobLiv will get 24 starts? God help us all.
How can they predict Matt Maloney will make 28 starts when he may not even make the team?
Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hap
13-10 for Aaron Harang????? I think it will be better than that.
HE may very well be better then that, but will the TEAM be good enough?
The rest of his numbers look good.