http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php
BP gives the Reds about a 31% of making the postseason, or about even with the Cards. The big surprise to me is the Brewers with a 46% of making the postseason.
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php
BP gives the Reds about a 31% of making the postseason, or about even with the Cards. The big surprise to me is the Brewers with a 46% of making the postseason.
BP only giving the Cards 31% of making the postseason? That's nuts. The Cards are certainly not improved over last season, but they're also not that much worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by MasonBuzz3
I really, really don't think the Brewers have a 46% chance for the postseason. I'd say 20% chance is much more realistic.
Reds seem about right to me.
Given my expectations of the club before the season started, I'll take that percentage as a compliment.
Poor Pirates.
Funny how the Marlins have but one more win than the Pirates--yet, the Marlins have almost a 15% better chance of making the playoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by vaticanplum
Since 4 out of 16 teams MUST make the playoffs, 25% would be "even money", that is if all teams were equal.
31% isn't that much of a compliment to the REDS. I would label it as an insult to the Cards, though.
I think the reds were 1000-1 before the season started
current 2006 World Series odds
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Code:
New York Yankees 6-1 Los Angeles Dodgers 40-1
St. Louis Cardinals 7-1 San Francisco Giants 40-1
Boston Red Sox 8-1 Texas Rangers 50-1
Chicago White Sox 12-1 Arizona Diamondbacks 75-1
Houston Astros 12-1 Baltimore Orioles 75-1
LA Angels of Anaheim 12-1 Cincinnati Reds 75-1
Atlanta Braves 15-1 Detroit Tigers 75-1
Cleveland Indians 15-1 Milwaukee Brewers 75-1
Oakland Athletics 15-1 Toronto Blue Jays 75-1
Chicago Cubs 25-1 Washington Nationals 75-1
Florida Marlins 25-1 Seattle Mariners 100-1
Minnesota Twins 25-1 Colorado Rockies 125-1
Philadelphia Phillies 25-1 Pittsburgh Pirates 125-1
New York Mets 30-1 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 250-1
San Diego Padres 30-1 Kansas City Royals 500-1
The PECOTA-adjusted version shows the Cards at %41, the Astro's at %36, the Reds at %25, the Pirates at %.44951, and the Brewres at %50. Seems someone loves the Brewers and loathes the Pirates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
That's a fun report, and I've referred to it many times. It's all stats-driven and computer simulated, so no one's subjectivity is involved. But it's a lot more meaningful in August than April. Small sample sizes, regression to the mean and all that.
My guess is they will be there again before all is said and done.Quote:
Originally Posted by pedro