Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kbrake
I agree if someone I think scores on a single is running. I think it takes two hits. FanGraphs said the bunt lowered Reds chance to win by 2.4%. Redszone acting like it lowered chance to win by 83%.
from what to what please?
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kbrake
I agree if someone I think scores on a single is running. I think it takes two hits. FanGraphs said the bunt lowered Reds chance to win by 2.4%. Redszone acting like it lowered chance to win by 83%.
I'm not a big fan of those runs expectancy charts, but I agree we tend to over-react to a managers decisions. Usually, they are very close to 50-50 propositions. That said, I hate the bunt there ;)
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Nice tribute to Bernie Stowe.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedWilly
from what to what please?
I honestly don't know saw someone on Twitter ripping the bunt saying that it lowered their chance to win by 2.4% I didn't think that justified the increase in blood pressure but that's just me.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
that was awesome too see all the legends and Bernie.. nice tribute :)
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kbrake
I honestly don't know saw someone on Twitter ripping the bunt saying that it lowered their chance to win by 2.4% I didn't think that justified the increase in blood pressure but that's just me.
Thats cool - I just ask bc percentages can be tricky. If it took their win % from 4.8% to 2.4% it essentially cut their chances to win in half. If it took it from 100% to 97.6% then it truly lowered it by 2.4%
Those are the two extremes but I bet its closer to the lower numbers than the higher numbers in this case.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedWilly
Thats cool - I just ask bc percentages can be tricky. If it took their win % from 4.8% to 2.4% it essentially cut their chances to win in half. If it took it from 100% to 97.6% then it truly lowered it by 2.4%
Those are the two extremes but I bet its closer to the lower numbers than the higher numbers in this case.
If I had to guess it went from something like 35% to 33% but that is pure guessing.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Been some ball players that have worn the wishbone C.
I like being a fan of a team with such a deep and rich history.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
As elated as I was to find the game in an obscure place in NC, and as disgusted as I was to see the game play out, the HOF ceremony was so special. I watched all of those guys play and it was a shock to see Jimmy O'Toole and others walking with a cane and see that they've aged--I'll always remember them as running the field and hitting or pitching the ball. Makes you realize that life is so short and enjoy it as it happens.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Roy Tucker
Been some ball players that have worn the wishbone C.
I like being a fan of a team with such a deep and rich history.
It's been a 53-year ride for me, and I love the Reds so much. Seeing half the Reds 1961 rotation (only Jay and Purkey (RIP) missing. Seeing Junior come back to cheers. Tough to keep your composure in this motel room.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Quote:
Originally Posted by
757690
Cishek had nothing today. Even the ball Schumaker hit was hit hard. Santiago has a .324 OBP. Negron has been in the grove. Schumaker is a lefty. Without a bunt, a like the Reds chances there.
You've got to be flipping kidding me. schumaker's ball landed 2 feet in front of the plate and the second hop was 20 feet past the mound....SS had to go to his left and catch a short hop on his side.......and you say that was hit hard but you ripped on Heisey last night on a ball he hit much harder off of a guy that fanned 3 of the next 4 hitters.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Using one of the calculators available.
WE: man on second none out, down by 1: 42.3%
WE: man on third one out, down by 1: 40.4%
No, it's not a big difference, but you have to consider other factors such as: who is running, who's coming up to bat, what's the outlook for extra innings, etc.
And of course, the 1.9% loss in WE is only valid if the bunt is executed correctly and aside from an error or other misplay, it is the best possible outcome.
A failed bunt, for example, brings the WE down to 27.8%. The average success rate for a bunt is around 70%, but its probably higher in situations like this where the fielding team is likely to go to first with the throw.
So by attempting the bunt you are basically pretty much giving up WE, no matter what. It's a losing strategy.
Not a fan.
Re: 8/8/14 - Reds vs. Marlins
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ironman92
You've got to be flipping kidding me. schumaker's ball landed 2 feet in front of the plate and the second hop was 20 feet past the mound....SS had to go to his left and catch a short hop on his side.......and you say that was hit hard but you ripped on Heisey last night on a ball he hit much harder off of a guy that fanned 3 of the next 4 hitters.
They both were hit equally hard. Both were dumb forest pitch swings, given the situation. Though I'm flattered you actually remembered something I said in a previous game thread. I say so many dumb things, I forget most of them ;)