Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Very interesting Rick, it helps explain why Leake seems to always be either boom (several shutout innings) or bust (knocked around and yanked after just a few) with little margin in between.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tom Servo
Very interesting Rick, it helps explain why Leake seems to always be either boom (several shutout innings) or bust (knocked around and yanked after just a few) with little margin in between.
And though he's a little bit different, Arroyo is similar in the boom bust fashion. When he's got command and a reasonable ump, he can dominate. But if either of those are off, it can get ugly.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
redssince75
(Where have you gone, Micah Owings?)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...wingmi01.shtml
Now officially listed as an OFer and not pitching anymore. Micah is playing LF for the Nationals triple A affiliate Syracuse, batting .281 in 10 games with 1 HR.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
And though he's a little bit different, Arroyo is similar in the boom bust fashion. When he's got command and a reasonable ump, he can dominate. But if either of those are off, it can get ugly.
They both seem to lose it quickly, as well. I've always thought this had to do with Leake's maturity. If he starts to lose it, he really starts to lose it. Arroyo? I'm not sure why.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NebraskaRed
They both seem to lose it quickly, as well. I've always thought this had to do with Leake's maturity. If he starts to lose it, he really starts to lose it. Arroyo? I'm not sure why.
When you're dependent on hitting spots and pinpoint control, dips in focus and energy level become more pronounced, I'd imagine.
It was a great outing for Leake, no doubt, but I'd prefer to not be relying on "crafty righthanders" for 40% of the rotation.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
I'd love to sell high if Leake can string together 2-3 more starts like last night, and Cingrani comes anywhere close to replicating the success he's had in the minors.
In that scenario, two deals I'd look to make are:
Leake to BOS for Jacoby Ellsbury
Leake to SD for Will Venable and Austin Hedges
Deal 1 solidifies Reds' championship OF (and defense) for the rest of this season. Then give Ellsbury a qualifying offer and you've essentially replaced Leake with a new first round pick. Meanwhile, the BoSox get a quality SP under team control for the next 2.5 years- at a minimum, he's better than Doubront and Lackey.
Deal 2 gives the Reds their starting LF until Ludwick comes back and a great platoon partner once he does (and insurance policy in case he's shaky). Plus, it gives them a great backup plan/insurance policy (GG defender and top 100 prospect) if Mez doesn't pan out once Hanigan's contract is up. Meanhwile, SD gets a hometown kid that is a big upgrade to their current pitching staff.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Would love to get Ellsbury. Not sure that I want to move Leake.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
What kind of innings limit do you think we'd see for Cingrani, if, say, he goes lights out for a string of starts and pushes Leake to 6th starter once Cueto goes back? Guessing he couldn't go the rest of the way.
This team will need Leake's innings all year. And I'm guessing he will prove to be more valuable than anything we could get back. Plus I like the idea of Cingrani in the pen down the stretch.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mitri
What kind of innings limit do you think we'd see for Cingrani, if, say, he goes lights out for a string of starts and pushes Leake to 6th starter once Cueto goes back? Guessing he couldn't go the rest of the way.
This team will need Leake's innings all year. And I'm guessing he will prove to be more valuable than anything we could get back. Plus I like the idea of Cingrani in the pen down the stretch.
Cingrani should be able to throw a full season. He threw just over 150 innings last year. 180 should be fine.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
More than a 1/3 into the season and Leake is likely equalling or exceeding most expectations. Thoughts?
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
edabbs44
More than a 1/3 into the season and Leake is likely equalling or exceeding most expectations. Thoughts?
I agree and I'm happy. He's still a good back-end starter and I'm glad he's not Josh Fogg filling that spot. He should be able to assume the Arroyo role for a few years. He's going to get expensive pretty fast though.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
So I was curious about the current pitching staff and I looked up contracts...wow, so this is what they mean by window:
Pitcher last year under contract
Arrroyo 2013
Bailey 2014
Cueto
Leake
Latos 2015
now this is of course barring a long term deal for anybody....I figure Arroyo is gone after this year, Cingrani will be in the rotation next season, that frees up some money (sort of with increases for the position players under contract)...plus TV money increasing in the next couple of years....hopefully by A LOT. so the question is.....and waaaayyy too early to say...Who, if anybody, will be deadline deal if a long term contract cant be reached? Stevenson is probably 3-4 years away at least, Corcino has been inconsistent....Travieso is probably a few years away....could the rotation in 2016 be Cingrani, Travieso, Stevenson, Corcino + maybe one of the current starters?
Looking at the current contracts....rough math is that as of right now, contracts ending + Votto's $7 million drop - increases scheduled for next season, I see about $7.5 million available for Arbitration to keep the current payroll dollars the same....now, if attendance keeps increasing, payroll will go up anyway, plus estimates are for an additional $40 million in TV money...I hope it's higher than that.....
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Beatlessp
So I was curious about the current pitching staff and I looked up contracts...wow, so this is what they mean by window:
Pitcher last year under contract
Arrroyo 2013
Bailey 2014
Cueto
Leake
Latos 2015
now this is of course barring a long term deal for anybody....I figure Arroyo is gone after this year, Cingrani will be in the rotation next season, that frees up some money (sort of with increases for the position players under contract)...plus TV money increasing in the next couple of years....hopefully by A LOT. so the question is.....and waaaayyy too early to say...Who, if anybody, will be deadline deal if a long term contract cant be reached? Stevenson is probably 3-4 years away at least, Corcino has been inconsistent....Travieso is probably a few years away....could the rotation in 2016 be Cingrani, Travieso, Stevenson, Corcino + maybe one of the current starters?
Looking at the current contracts....rough math is that as of right now, contracts ending + Votto's $7 million drop - increases scheduled for next season, I see about $7.5 million available for Arbitration to keep the current payroll dollars the same....now, if attendance keeps increasing, payroll will go up anyway, plus estimates are for an additional $40 million in TV money...I hope it's higher than that.....
I'm on record that extensions for at least two of Bailey, Latos or Cueto are top priroity. The reality crashing in is when I look at extensions for guys like Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Ricky Romero and see what they're doing now. I hope Stephenson is ready to become the 5th starter by 2015.
IMO, Leake may price himself out of the rotation as well. Next year, 2nd year arb is probably $5 to $6 Million (more if he keeps pitching well). The following year probably has him in the $10 Million range. Cueto is also gone after 2015.
It may be more likely that the Reds extend one guy (Latos I'd hope), working in Cingrani and add some useful vets to eat innings with Stephenson filling the last spot and hopefully rising to the TOR sooner than 4 years.
I haven't given up on Corcino and wonder if one of Rogers or Contreras may fill a spot, but I really don't want to see more than one rookie in the rotation at a time. A stop gap or two may be required.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Beatlessp
So I was curious about the current pitching staff and I looked up contracts...wow, so this is what they mean by window:
Pitcher last year under contract
Arrroyo 2013
Bailey 2014
Cueto
Leake
Latos 2015
now this is of course barring a long term deal for anybody....I figure Arroyo is gone after this year, Cingrani will be in the rotation next season, that frees up some money (sort of with increases for the position players under contract)...plus TV money increasing in the next couple of years....hopefully by A LOT. so the question is.....and waaaayyy too early to say...Who, if anybody, will be deadline deal if a long term contract cant be reached? Stevenson is probably 3-4 years away at least, Corcino has been inconsistent....Travieso is probably a few years away....could the rotation in 2016 be Cingrani, Travieso, Stevenson, Corcino + maybe one of the current starters?
Looking at the current contracts....rough math is that as of right now, contracts ending + Votto's $7 million drop - increases scheduled for next season, I see about $7.5 million available for Arbitration to keep the current payroll dollars the same....now, if attendance keeps increasing, payroll will go up anyway, plus estimates are for an additional $40 million in TV money...I hope it's higher than that.....
I take it you've given up all hope for Aroldis in the rotation? I haven't. I think it happens next season.
Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
wouldn't Stephenson be ready in 2-3 years vs 3-4? He's on the dragons right now right?